French Open 2018

[yogg]

10 hours ago, South_African_Punter said:

Sloane Stephens vs Daria Kasatkina 

Sloane Stephens to win: 2/1.

While Kasatkina's win over Wozniacki was impressive, I think the bookies are over-valuing her in this instance. This is her first QF Grand Slam appearance, which might result in a bit of nerves. Sloane Stephens has been impressive so far, especially her demolition of an in-form Kontaveit. She has also more experience of the "big stage" than Kasatkina.

good call 

Edited June 5, 2018 by yogg

[CzechPunter]

@hzertin Please stay away from blatantly negative comments in the future .

[Sm0k3rZ]

We have a good group of tennis punters on here..lets keep it positive and hit some winners

[yogg]

18 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Diego Schwartzman Total Games - Over 9.00 at 1.90 with Marathonbet

Looks like a good line to me given what I saw yesterday and given how well Diego fought against Nadal in both Madrid and Melbourne. Marterer was able to stay in quite a few rallies with Nadal yesterday and Diego is a step up in that regard, so I reckon that he's going to give his rival a tough time in at least two sets. The fight was real against Anderson, but the serve will now be off the table and that should give him heart. And, most importantly, Diego does have a good enough backhand to absorb Nadal's forehand. I can't see Nadal losing unless it gets really rainy and the match gets affected by delays, but there's every chance that he's going to lose nine games or more.

based on that gr8 review CP  I'd give Diego a chance of snatching a set.

Nadal R. - Schwartzman D. correct score 3-1 @ 5.10 with 10Bet

thanks CP and good luck all 

[CzechPunter]

Stating that someone had X winners and X losers is fine, personal attacks aren't.

[South_African_Punter]

Garbine Muguruza v Maria Sharapova

Pick: Muguruza to win @ 1.75.

I was very impressed with Muguruza's demolition of Stosur. When Muguruza is in the zone, few, if any, can beat her. Sharapova, of course, was also impressive against Pliskova, but from what I recall of that game, Pliskova wasn't near her best tennis.

Muguruza hasn't won against Sharapova, but the last match was in 2014 and Muguruza has made large improvements to her game since then, so I am willing to not factor in the head to head here.

[CzechPunter]

I think that @mihaiv93 has made some very fine comments and losing streaks of three are nothing to be ashamed of, but let's leave it at that and focus on the tennis side of things from now on.

[Sm0k3rZ]

@CzechPunter whats your lean on the shara vs garbine match? Both have their plus points. It sucks backing shara and then see her struggling on her serve. So many times i've been gubbed due to that.

[Badham11]

May I ask opinions on Dell Potro win before I lump in. Myself I can't see past him winning, but I value your advice as I've followed this site for a while now. 

 

Thanks 

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to PL @Badham11!

As for DelPo, everything is pointing towards his win, from his recent performances to the way Cilic played against Fognini. I'm slightly worried about DelPo's fitness though, Cilic is certainly going to test him more than Isner/Ramos/Mahut.

@Sm0k3rZ I can't make a call on that, too random. Depends on who will be able to find the court with the bigger shots, I pretty much agree with everything that's been said here and the odds reflect those thoughts I guess. Sharapova/Pliskova doesn't really count, Muguruza has been better so far, but this match-up is somewhat random by nature. If pushed, I'd back Muguruza.

[Sm0k3rZ]

Cilic losing 2 sets after being 2 sets up speaks volumes in my opinion. Fog just disintegrated in the fifth set. 

[Badham11]

Thanks guys. As Czech said my only worried would be fitness, what's everyone' personal picks of the day? Might avoid DP as was mentioned odds not offering alot of value. 

[liquidglass]

Muguruza vs Sharapova

After the sudden exit of Serena Williams, comes this matchup perhaps not with the same weight of expectation but interesting enough to be at the top of any major tennis discussion for today. The head to head currently stands at 3-0 in favour of Sharapova. The matches took place in 2013/2014 and on close inspection would seem to tell a very interesting story.

Firstly this is clearly a matcup that sees both players apply a similar approach to the game. Start out with plan A, if it fails, revert to plan A and switch on the "intensity". Keep turning up the intensity till you arrive at "Street fight mode" which should lead to victory. There is no iota of doubt in my mind that Sharapova and Nadal are the best street fighters in the game by a mile.

Just taking a look at the scoreline in the past head to heads between them, one can quickly reach a precise conclusion about what happened in those matches. Rome WTA 2013 Sharapova wins 6-2 6-2. Muguruza playing Sharapova for the first time was blown away by Sharapova's brute aggression and had a first feel of this opponent whose game was predicated on a similar style albeit better endurance and tenacity. The matchup came back again in the French Open 2014. This time Muguruza was better prepared and hyped up ready for a good brawl. She wins the first set 6-1. Sharapova goes back to the drawing room and turns on the "Intensity" switch. Muguruza resists but still gets subdued and loses 7-5 in the second set. By the third set they were already in street fight mode. Muguruza implodes. The third set ends 6-1. The margin of victory almost similar to the first meeting aside the fact they played 3 sets.

Third meeting happens in the same year of 2014 in Montreal. Muguruza by now would have in preparation played out a number of possible strategies in her head to deal with this enormous and ruthless obstacle called Sharapova. The first set was well fought out ending 6-4 in favour of Muguruza. Again Sharapova goes back to the drawing room, turns up the intensity and switches to "Reckless anger and confidence mode"(Having been the victor of past street fights) and wins going away...6-3 6-1. That same 6-1 scoreline rears it ugly head again.

Anyone trying to convince themselves that Muguruza has improved can only do that on the back of deceptive reasoning.(The kind of reasoning that one makes to try to summon up the confidence to backup a premeditated choice) How has she improved? By hitting the ball harder? I would not consider Stosur and a wilting Kuznetsova as decent heavy weights to be reckoned with, Both with one leg already out of the door. The current Muguruza form can only be measured with her match on the 16/05 against Gavrilova where she was outfoxed and prior to that on the 9/05 outdone by Kasatkina. She has played in patches all through the year and now flatters to deceive with this uncoordinated hype form.

In summary I would say that this is the exact same matchup problem that Sharapova has with Serena where she has been subdued in19 out of 21 street fights. Sharapova here is tried and tested and now has the valuable benefit of a days rest. I think she would require serious muzzling to restrain her in this form. If sharapova is going to win then the handicap line is a must take. Verdict: Sharapova wins again cosily.

[ElPrincipito007]

Muguruza, impressive

[CzechPunter]

I want Halep to win though! 

[yogg]

just back from Surbiton after watching the Challenger series there.

saw Jurgen Melzer, Dan Evans and De Minaur all win.

Melzer's still got it, pure quality unlike Evans who was rubbish today.

some good ladies matches too.

a great day out, makes you appreciate how amazing the top players are.

[CzechPunter]

Nothing for me tomorrow. I'll be hoping for Halep and no retirements in Nadal/Diego though.

[owenclass]

Simona Halep vs Garbine Muguruza

Over 21.5 games 8/11 paddy power

I have got this feeling that this match will finally be the classic that the everyone wants as there has not been many great matches in the womens. So with two players playing great tennis on their favourite surfaces then I think we will see three sets 

 

Madison Keys vs Sloane Stephens

Stephens to win 2-0 5/4 paddy power

Stephens to win and Tie break in any set 4/1 paddy power

I feel this match will probably not go to a third set as Stephens is playing the better tennis at the moment and is very tough to play against as her opponent found out in last year's US Open final

 

Sloane Stephens to win the French Open 7/2 paddy power

Both semi finals to have a tie break 11/1 paddy power

[CzechPunter]

She's certainly the favorite.

[CzechPunter]

Shame about the rain, Diego could've even won yesterday. The rain did give @yogg a nice winner though, so congrats!

[mihaiv93]

A parlay for me today. 

S. Halep - G. Muguruza 

Pick - Simona Halep to win the match at odds 2.00

The highlight of the tournament here today. No. 1 Ranking and RG final on the table. H2H the spaniard leads 3-1 but the only meeting on clay was won by Halep in Stuttgart in a three setter. A bit concerning is SImona´s last match against Muguruza which ended with the Romanian winning just one game. 

Making the case for Halep here, I believe that one of the reasons she will have a slight edge today is exactly that last H2H against Muguruza. It was then, that her game started changing after having a fallout with her coach Darren Cahill. It was after that loss that Halep became no. 1 and started playing better. I believe she has the mental to overcome the Spaniard now. 

The conditions on Chatrier are quite dry today, I am looking right now at Nadal´s match and I believe the conditions will slightly favour Simona´s game today. After her comeback against Kerber, she pointed to her head saying it was her mental strength that won the match. I remember Willander saying the day before the game that Halep´s biggest problem is that you can tell after 15 minutes if she´s in the game and will win it or not. Well, the specialist was mistaken this time and I believe Halep is set to win the tournament, she is very determined and she has the patience to slowly take apart Muguruza´s game. 

M. Keys - S. Stepehens 

Pick - S. Stephens to win at odds 1.57

I expect Stephens to take advantage of the draw she´s had and play the final here. We can say the same about M. Keys who benefited and took fulll advantage of her draw so far. 

Not much to say about Keys as she is a bit of a one dimensional player and I believe that Stephens has too much variety on her game for Keys. H2H is favourable to Stephens in a dominant fashion. This is the first meeting on clay and I believe here Stephens has the edge even more than on hard courts. If Madison doesn´t get her first serve at least to 65%, she is doomed in my opinion. Go with Stephens to be in the final.

Total odds - 3,14

 

[yogg]

21 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Shame about the rain, Diego could've even won yesterday. The rain did give @yogg a nice winner though, so congrats!

 CP, you're the man! 

[yogg]

On 06/06/2018 at 8:02 AM, yogg said:

based on that gr8 review CP  I'd give Diego a chance of snatching a set.

Nadal R. - Schwartzman D. correct score 3-1 @ 5.10 with 10Bet

thanks CP and good luck all 

[KennyDelight]

If anyone is betting on WTA Bol don't bet on Sorribes Tormo unless you are sure the opponent has experience to deal with moonballs

Grunt of Errani. Power of Errani (not high) and her rallies last at least 20-30 shots because she moonballs 99% of her shots. To be fair Zhuk puts in 50% moonballs in response.

1st set lasted just over 1 hour and it's been easily been torture. Unfortunately Zhuk's errors have paved for her downfall so far

[CzechPunter]

D.Thiem/M.Cecchinato - No Tie-Break Played at 1.72 with Bet365

Not a bad price imo. Cecchinato has played a lot of tie-breaks here already, even contesting two against Djokovic, but it's hard not to have the feeling that this is going to be swift and easy for Thiem - and, if it isn't, I'd expect to see him drop a set with a break, like he did against Nishikori, just losing focus at a certain point. Importantly, Thiem has been returning excellently so far against opposition with good serves. It's not a lock or anything, but it's the only bet that I like for tomorrow. Nadal should be 3-1 or 3-0, Del Potro was hardly good today, Cilic was just awful.

[mihaiv93]

After a couple of bad picks, the parlay worked out for me today. I played Stephens -2,5 on the asian games handicap as well so it´s nice to get that under the belt to. 

Any thoughts on tomorrow´s semi-finals on the men´s side. It´s not my strongest point but I feel that Cechinatto will take a set of Thiem and I expect Del Potro to put up a fight against Nadal and take 1 set. I think a parlay would work up to odds of +4.00 for two picks of over 3,5 sets. ? 

[yogg]

18 minutes ago, mihaiv93 said:

After a couple of bad picks, the parlay worked out for me today. I played Stephens -2,5 on the asian games handicap as well so it´s nice to get that under the belt to. 

Any thoughts on tomorrow´s semi-finals on the men´s side. It´s not my strongest point but I feel that Cechinatto will take a set of Thiem and I expect Del Potro to put up a fight against Nadal and take 1 set. I think a parlay would work up to odds of +4.00 for two picks of over 3,5 sets. ? 

have a look at CP's review just 2 posts up from yours 

[mihaiv93]

2 hours ago, yogg said:

have a look at CP's review just 2 posts up from yours 

I feel there is value in playing the matches to be over 3,5 sets. I am more convinced Cecchinato gets a set out of Thiem but as @CzechPunter said, Del Potro didn´t look to good and these are the Semi-Finals of Roland Garros. It´s Nadal we´re talking about.

An thoughts on the over 32,5 ? I can see Nadal winning a tie-break first set and then go 6-3 7-5 or something similar.

 

[yogg]

personally, I think both matches will be won by the favourites 3-0 

[mihaiv93]

12 minutes ago, yogg said:

personally, I think both matches will be won by the favourites 3-0 

Going over both matches again I will be skipping Nadal - Del Potro and my only pick for tomorrow will be Cecchinatto +2.5 sets. I expect even odds. I´ll make my case tomorrow after getting a bit more insight from RG.