French Open 2018

[CzechPunter]

[yogg]

French Open Outright Market

Kyle Edmund each way (50 % payout as beaten finalist) @ 101.00 with BetVictor (just 51.00 with BetFred)

he just gets better and better.

good luck all 

[CzechPunter]

Men's: https://prismic-io.s3.amazonaws.com/fft-rg-commun-news%2F3d413fd2-bd29-4604-a6ee-4fbdad3f01a8_men_s_singles_20180524.pdf

Women's: https://prismic-io.s3.amazonaws.com/fft-rg-commun-news%2F8777ce2b-dcf3-47bb-86ad-6092e8f17da9_women_s_singles_20180524.pdf

[four-leaf]

Anett Kontaveit to win 4th quarter at 9.00 with bet365

Max stake on this one. Anett is on the rise and has enough quality to win this on her own without any help from players droping out. It doesn't matter if she faces Petra Kvitova, Caro Woz or Dasha Kasatkina when she is on a roll because she's good enough to beat them all.

[liquidglass]

9 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Anett Kontaveit to win 4th quarter at 9.00 with bet365

Max stake on this one. Anett is on the rise and has enough quality to win this on her own without any help from players droping out. It doesn't matter if she faces Petra Kvitova, Caro Woz or Dasha Kasatkina when she is on a roll because she's good enough to beat them all.

On a superficial level this pick would seem to have a lot of value but experience clearly says otherwise. I have pointed out a number of times that the womens game is so intense and competitive these days compared to the days of Graff, seles, when predictions could be more accurate. Now even though there is a number 1 and 2 player in the game, they are not consistent enough to be undisputed by any representation of their rankings. Look at Bouchard, Muguruza, Kerber, and some others. Nullified by red hot pressure. These days the womens game produces champs by turns and seasons. That is, while some are busy trying to win a current tournament, the rest of the pack are looking forward to and aiming for the next tournament. Kontaveit would seem to have peaked too early for a slam and just like Osaka and a couple of others  before her, would seem to have run her race. I cannot see her going past the third round. Same upset alert applies to Bertens too. Mertens looks to have freshened up and should look dangerous as will Venus Williams and Konta. Serena could get going as well if she applies her Grand slam mindset!!.

[Brian Bertelli]

Hi Boys for the first round of rg i will took 

lucas pouille and malek  jaziri at 1,75

shapovalov at 1,57 is very good value 

[CzechPunter]

Before the draw, I was thinking about opposing Nadal in some shape or form, but he's been handed the best possible draw by the looks of things, with both Thiem and Zverev placed in the same quarter. With that in mind, it seems that only health issues could possibly stop him, so I'm not going to dive into the outright market. In fact, I'm struggling to see where the value should lie in the pre-tournament markets, everything looks messy to me. I have been able to find plenty of match bets that I like though.

Venus Williams (vs. Wang) + Suarez-Navarro (vs. Konjuh) at 1.80 with Bet365

Konjuh hasn't played since Brisbane, she might be here just for the money honestly, while Williams is better than Wang on clay. Much better, in fact. Venus doesn't have any form whatsoever on paper, but that is because she was unlucky to run to the red-hot Kontaveit in two recent tournaments. She didn't play too poorly and should have more than enough to beat Wang.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Stanislas Wawrinka at 2.53 with Marathonbet

Wawrinka managed to beat Donaldson in Geneva before being crushed by Fucsovics, but the bigger issue is that he doesn't seem to have the right shape for battling in a long match. GGL is a decent enough player to get stuck in - and, unless Wawrinka somehow wins quickly, the Spaniard should eventually out-maneuver him.

Benoit Paire to beat Roberto Carballes Baena at 1.50 with Bet365

Benoit Paire was struggling in the first part of the season, but he has been able to find his mojo just in time for the French Open and he isn't going to let his guard down in this form imo. Carballes Baena is a good grinder that's great for small 250s and Challengers, but he doesn't have any big weapons in his arsenal and Paire should have enough time to adjust if he starts poorly given the longer format of the game.

Damir Dzumhur to beat Denis Kudla at 1.57 with Bet365

Dzumhur isn't being given much credit yet again, but I fully believe that he's a level above Kudla on clay. He also tends to raise his game for these bigger occasions, so I fancy him to recover from the bad loss against Rafa and start with a good win here. Kudla hasn't beaten anyone noteworthy in the qualifying (in terms of clay-court qualities).

Martin Klizan (vs. Djere) + Petra Martic (vs. Wang) at 1.99 with Unibet

Klizan was fooling around quite a lot in the qualifiers, but he always raised his game in the end and that should be enough for Djere, who doesn't have anything to build on this year. I had decent hopes for him before the clay court swing, but he's just missing for some reason. Meanwhile, Martic looks like one of those safer bankers to me, Wang has nothing to offer on clay - or on the main level, for that matter.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich to beat Denisa Allertova at 1.64 with Marathonbet

Allertova is one of the many WTA players with an ON/OFF switch - and, unfortunately, it's been in the OFF mode since the Australian Open. Her bad form seems to have something to do with her off-court life, so I wouldn't be surprised to see her being satisfied with just the first round paycheck here. Sasnovich should have bigger ambitions.

Su-Wei Hsieh to beat Rebecca Peterson at 1.96 with Marathonbet

Hsieh has burnt me plenty of times, but I still think that she should be closer to 1.70 or so here given her very stellar form all year long. The loss against Buzarnescu was pretty crushing, but Hsieh has a bit of a reputation for not being up for the task all the time, especially before bigger events, so it might've been the case of her just not wanting to be in Strasbourg. 

[CzechPunter]

Somewhat unrelated notes:

- I wouldn't want to touch Nadal at the current odds. The draw is soft, but I was shocked to see how much decline he's gone through since Monte Carlo. I don't know what's behind that and he isn't going to admit anything obviously, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull out unexpectedly like he did in what...2016 I believe.

- Kvitova might look appealing to some given her good 2018 form, but there are two things to note her. First, the clay in Paris tends to be more physically demanding than other surfaces. Second, the guy that attacked her some time ago has just been caught according to the media, not exactly the best possible timing.

- I'd really love to see Halep win this time around, but I'm afraid that the Aussie Open defeat has had lasting consequences on her confidence. Not sure how she's going to handle another Grand Slam, especially given that she hasn't really amazed in the meantime.

- Djokovic could go reasonably far if his fitness is alright. His game was almost back in Rome, he stopped doing silly things and the good scoreline against Nadal should be a big confidence booster. And yeah, the super-soft first round isn't going to hurt either.

- I have no idea why Thiem wanted to stay in Lyon for the whole week. Can't help him imo.

- First round matches that should be entertaining - Kyrgios/Tomic, Petkovic/Mladenovic, Basilashvili/Simon, Siegemund/Vandeweghe, Duan/Garcia, Lepchenko/Mertens.

[liquidglass]

Kvitova probably has had a good recovery time and has done the smart thing. I think she can really be a live danger to the field. Agreed. Thiem is still frivolous and care free. staying out there in Lyon playing two three setters back to back was simply silly. Definately going with Vesely against Lajovic. (strong pick in my opinion). Gregoire Barrere ( home wildcard) should be able to take care of Albot. My last pick of the first round is a young player I love so much on clay and is also a home wildcard. Fiona Ferro. She currently has a horrible record and is playing against an opponent with an even worse record Witthoeft. Hard to see Witthoeft try to pull any weight here with the additional handicap of playing against the home crowd. Finally, I also think Italian joker Fognini looks. vulnerable against Andujar as well as Kasatkina looking dodgy against Kanepi. The latter leads the h2h 2-1 winning both on hard courts and convincingly so. Kanepi's game is bred for clay and I dont not see why she cannot repeat the feat with those heavy shots from her racket. She is in very good clay form too. 

[liquidglass]

51 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Before the draw, I was thinking about opposing Nadal in some shape or form, but he's been handed the best possible draw by the looks of things, with both Thiem and Zverev placed in the same quarter. With that in mind, it seems that only health issues could possibly stop him, so I'm not going to dive into the outright market. In fact, I'm struggling to see where the value should lie in the pre-tournament markets, everything looks messy to me. I have been able to find plenty of match bets that I like though.

Venus Williams (vs. Wang) + Suarez-Navarro (vs. Konjuh) at 1.80 with Bet365

Konjuh hasn't played since Brisbane, she might be here just for the money honestly, while Williams is better than Wang on clay. Much better, in fact. Venus doesn't have any form whatsoever on paper, but that is because she was unlucky to run to the red-hot Kontaveit in two recent tournaments. She didn't play too poorly and should have more than enough to beat Wang.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Stanislas Wawrinka at 2.53 with Marathonbet

Wawrinka managed to beat Donaldson in Geneva before being crushed by Fucsovics, but the bigger issue is that he doesn't seem to have the right shape for battling in a long match. GGL is a decent enough player to get stuck in - and, unless Wawrinka somehow wins quickly, the Spaniard should eventually out-maneuver him.

Benoit Paire to beat Roberto Carballes Baena at 1.50 with Bet365

Benoit Paire was struggling in the first part of the season, but he has been able to find his mojo just in time for the French Open and he isn't going to let his guard down in this form imo. Carballes Baena is a good grinder that's great for small 250s and Challengers, but he doesn't have any big weapons in his arsenal and Paire should have enough time to adjust if he starts poorly given the longer format of the game.

Damir Dzumhur to beat Denis Kudla at 1.57 with Bet365

Dzumhur isn't being given much credit yet again, but I fully believe that he's a level above Kudla on clay. He also tends to raise his game for these bigger occasions, so I fancy him to recover from the bad loss against Rafa and start with a good win here. Kudla hasn't beaten anyone noteworthy in the qualifying (in terms of clay-court qualities).

Martin Klizan (vs. Djere) + Petra Martic (vs. Wang) at 1.99 with Unibet

Klizan was fooling around quite a lot in the qualifiers, but he always raised his game in the end and that should be enough for Djere, who doesn't have anything to build on this year. I had decent hopes for him before the clay court swing, but he's just missing for some reason. Meanwhile, Martic looks like one of those safer bankers to me, Wang has nothing to offer on clay - or on the main level, for that matter.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich to beat Denisa Allertova at 1.64 with Marathonbet

Allertova is one of the many WTA players with an ON/OFF switch - and, unfortunately, it's been in the OFF mode since the Australian Open. Her bad form seems to have something to do with her off-court life, so I wouldn't be surprised to see her being satisfied with just the first round paycheck here. Sasnovich should have bigger ambitions.

Su-Wei Hsieh to beat Rebecca Peterson at 1.96 with Marathonbet

Hsieh has burnt me plenty of times, but I still think that she should be closer to 1.70 or so here given her very stellar form all year long. The loss against Buzarnescu was pretty crushing, but Hsieh has a bit of a reputation for not being up for the task all the time, especially before bigger events, so it might've been the case of her just not wanting to be in Strasbourg. 

Surprised you picked Klizan there. Hmmm! Djere has the recent 2- 0 h2h(Clay) advantage and is in decent enough form. the rough road through the qualifiers will certainly not help Klizan even if it looked like he was always in control. I think a more than average upset alert here!

[WaveRunner]

Great analysis and write ups Czech, I'm following you on most of these

[CzechPunter]

Let's hope some win then! 

[Sm0k3rZ]

Klizan..what can be said about him..his performance in the qualies was an utter joke..he saved mps yesterday to progress..3 setters in 3 days is bound to take a toll on him.Agree with most of Czechs picks but Klizan i'm not gonna be touching. Having said that he'll probably cruise home.

Best of luck everyone for this years french open

[CzechPunter]

Yep, good luck everyone! 

[owenclass]

Kyle Edmund to win the second quarter 7/1 paddy power

Kei Nishikori to win fourth quarter 7/1 paddy power

Karolina Pliskova to win second quarter 4/1 paddy power 

 

I think all three players have a chance to go far in the tournament as they all have had a decent clay court season 

Edited May 27, 2018 by owenclass

[Urosito]

@CzechPunter

Good tips, man. I'm following everything, except Paire and Hsieh. (Paire is too unpredictable - can lose from everyone, and Baena is solid clay-courter. Peterson can play some veery good and powerful tennis. Something like 6-0 6-1 for Rebecca if she's on wouldn't surprise me. Also Hsieh can easily win, if Peterson is off.) 

I would add Dodin (home court, Watson is a mess), Giraldo (some great matches in qualies, Baghdatis is awful on clay), Sandgren (solid on clay, more experienced than Hurkacz), Shapovalov (pure quality over Millman) and Berdych (pure quality over Chardy) as relatively safe bets. 
Also, Harrison over Marterer, Querrey over Tiafoe, Arruabarena over Babos, Schmiedlova over Begu, and Dolehide over Golubic could be potential upsets. 

Good luck to everyone!

[Painteur]

I know this is not a forum but I think there's something wrong with Venus, she doesn't look concentrated. I've put a considerable stake on her but I'll cash out now (4-5 1st set).

[CzechPunter]

Yep, a strange performance.

[CzechPunter]

Day one coming to a close and what a day, Ostapenko out, Venus out, Verdasco almost out, Konta out, Goffin might lose as well. Not happy about Venus, obviously, but the Dzumhur and Klizan/Martic bets won, so no complaints really. What's more, the day was also good for the pre-season bets with Ostapenko losing + Moutet and Pouille winning. I probably won't be adding any additional bets for round one, but already looking forward to day two!

[liquidglass]

Khachanov vs Haider Maurer

The one likable thing about a Grand Slam is that you can liken it to the F.A Cup where everyone comes together to compete for the trophy regardless of ranking. I would not want to say much here before arriving at my conclusion so I can save up enough energy to watch the game. Lol! Khachanov as we know is box office in men's tennis but currently formless....well, that is if i base his form on his current win/loss record. Although it must be pointed out that the losses  were against decent heavy weights of the game. To butress my point, I will call a loss a loss regardless. It leaves Mr Khachanov at 1/5 in the abyss at the confidence end.

Haider Maurer as most tennis afficionados know, is no mug on the clay and would appear to be nuturing some hard-t0-detect form. This game has been on my mind right from when i saw the draw and even more now close to the off time. My gutt feeling? Haider Maurer will surely win a set. This could really turn into a rumble in the jungle with 5 sets a clear possibility. Good Luck!!

Edited May 27, 2018 by liquidglass

[liquidglass]

Cameron Norrie vs Gojowczyk

For anyone who has lined up compulsary "Must watch" matches at the French Open later today and does not include this, really needs to have their heads examined. True Gojowczyk is in a river of form but Norrie intrestingly enough is on a fairy tale run. For all of us who know this story so well, we know where it all begun not too long ago back in Spain during that memorable epic Davis Cup tie between Great Britain and Spain. Norrie says that his first time on clay was in the juniors, then he played a little on the futures circuit in the UK like Bournmouth and Newcastle.....well, before pulverizing Bautista from 2 sets down. To tell you the truth looking at the form of Gojowczyk, I cannot see how he could lose to Norrie except the hard-to-diagnose factors prevail.

Norrie played three excellent matches in Lyon punishing the big man Isner in the process before losing tamely to Simon For some strange reason, I feel the match with Simon was not a true depiction of the form relating to the three matches prior. It was as if Norrie realised his level was happy with it and took a quick dive to conserve energy. Gojowczyk went on to try to win the final and lost to Fucsovics after wasting some of his energy levels. I do not believe he could resume the form from where he left off and overhaul a Norrie full of stamina and zest. I also think playing a leftie will have its own additional adverse effect on Gojowczyk and see Norrie coming through victorious in the end. The journalists ans tennis paparazis might as well start thinking up their headlines for Tuesdays papers. Verdict: Norrie to keep the fairy tale going with a big win.

[yogg]

a double from me today.

two players with momentum vs two without any.

Giraldo to beat Baghdatis and Tiafoe to beat Querrey

Double @ 2.71 with Pinnacle.

Good luck all 

[yogg]

and good luck to Cameron and Heather today from here in the uk.

 

[four-leaf]

17 minutes ago, yogg said:

and good luck to Cameron and Heather today from here in the uk.

 

Heather is probably someone to watch out for in Surbiton but on clay not so mutch to look out for.

[four-leaf]

Maria Sakkari to beat (-5.5) Mandy Minella at 1.90 with bet365

Hard to see Minella doing anything useful in this match. I had a tiny bet on Mandy in Nürnberg and it didn't go so well as she was actually totally outclassed by Alison Riske. If Maria is on her highest level here she'll do the same if not worse so I bet Maria will be on her game and completely pulverize Mandy who does in all fairness not have mutch to offer in either gameplay or ranking.

Edit: Maria beat Mandy 6-0 6-1 on clay in Fed cup this season.

Edited May 28, 2018 by four-leaf
Head to head

[four-leaf]

Sofia Kenin to beat (+4.5) Naomi Osaka at 2.00 with bet365

Going with the american here because she's got a 1-0 lead over Naomi on clay from 2014 when beating her in straight sets in a Florida based ITF tournament. I don't think Naomi should be as low as 1.22 either as she could easily lose this match to.

[yogg]

and a couple of correct score punts:

Seppi A. - Gasquet R. 2 - 3 @ 6.00 with Unibet

Jaziri M. - Youzhny M. 3 - 1 @ 3.95 also with Unibet

 

[CzechPunter]

Well, let's see where Paire goes from here. Should've been 3-0, now it's anyone's game .

[yogg]

Bencic B. vs Chiesa D.

ten weeks without match play will undo Bencic I think against a fully up to speed Chiesa whose won three matches this past week.

Chiesa @ 2.10 with Bet365

[yogg]

5 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Heather is probably someone to watch out for in Surbiton but on clay not so mutch to look out for.

may be but her opponent is out of sorts too so a good opportunity for Heather.

Edited May 28, 2018 by yogg