Bubbles180

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41 minutes ago, Snoopdog said:

Billy H, Have you done any long term performance analysis of the Daily Treble bet as 3 singles (or even 3 doubles)?

Just curious.

Thanks.

 

From 1st Aug to 30th Sep
 
Nap Singles  
36.72% Strike Rate
177 Runners
65 Winners
112 Losers
6 NR
28.13 P&L
15.89% ROI
Daily Treble Singles  
71.04% Strike Rate
183 Runners
130 Winners
53 Losers
0 NR
126.23 P&L
68.98% ROI
Daily Treble Doubles  
41.53% Strike Rate
183 Runners
76 Winners
107 Losers
0 NR
246.33 P&L
134.61% ROI
Daily Treble  
15.87% Strike Rate
63 Runners
10 Winners
53 Losers
0 NR
34.96 P&L
55.49% ROI
 

 

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From 1st Aug to 30th Sep
 
Daily Treble Singles  
71.04% Strike Rate
183 Runners
130 Winners
53 Losers
0 NR
126.23 P&L
68.98% ROI
Daily Treble Doubles  
41.53% Strike Rate
183 Runners
76 Winners
107 Losers
0 NR
246.33 P&L
134.61% ROI
Daily Treble  
15.87% Strike Rate
63 Runners
10 Winners
53 Losers
0 NR
34.96 P&L
55.49% ROI

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Thanks for that. Slightly surprising in that it seems to say:

1. The ROI of the daily treble bet as 3 singles is better than the nap.

2.The daily treble picks are best bet as 3 doubles.

I wonder if this will continue to be the case longer term.

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@Snoopdog

The amount of times we have had 2/3 in the treble is silly so doubles would deffo look better on any figures i would guess.

Just one thing about the selections for the Nap and Treble.

A while ago (August) I made a decision not to include any selection as a Nap that was in a race where the majority of runners hadn't got a proper rating. I thought this made sense as all of the selections are made from a ratings based method.

This rules out most maiden races, novice hurdles and most of the 2yo races. I was finding too many of these races were going to debutants.  

These selections that are well clear in the figures are still used in Trebles.

I have found that while the S/R of the Naps has slightly gone down the profits are holding up as the prices are higher on average and I rarely opt for anything under 2/1 these days. At least i'm not getting mugged by a horse which had never ran before.

:ok

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Billy H,

Your selections are great - everything over 100% ROI. I previously mentioned that when Sam Turner won the newspaper tipsters competiton, he was running about 96%.

We all have our style of bet - which usually means - do you want a chance of winning big; or do you want to win often. I'm in the latter group.

I also love an "easy" selection where I can rely on a website, etc for a decent shot with little thinking - whether it be horses, football or american football. If I have the time, I'll add in my judgement.

Keep up the good work.

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Just to add to this have done a run down of prices on the daily racing tips and it seemd if you back horses 4/1 and above you will caome out on profit each month by a large proportion, back any selection 4/1 to 15/2 win only and all others above 8/1 E/W, will have some stats tomorrow to confirm this

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2 hours ago, Bubbles180 said:

Just to add to this have done a run down of prices on the daily racing tips and it seemd if you back horses 4/1 and above you will caome out on profit each month by a large proportion, back any selection 4/1 to 15/2 win only and all others above 8/1 E/W, will have some stats tomorrow to confirm this

2016 stats 

Month Bets Wins S/R P&L ROI
aug 359 68 18.94% 69.25 19.29%
sep 605 135 22.31% 29.70 4.91%
oct 629 154 24.48% 56.95 9.05%
nov 468 115 24.57% 74.87 16.00%
dec 479 120 25.05% 25.40 5.30%
  2540 592 23.31% 256.17 10.09%

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2017 stats to sep 

jan 396 103 26.01% 81.80 20.66%
feb 360 98 27.22% 103.87 28.85%
mar 421 111 26.37% 147.60 35.06%
apr 568 131 23.06% 122.39 21.55%
may 654 157 24.01% 60.51 9.25%
jun 664 165 24.85% 162.43 24.46%
jul 712 179 25.14% 173.78 24.41%
aug 699 159 22.75% 92.16 13.18%
sep 560 115 20.54% 81.59 14.57%
  5034 1218 24.20% 1,026.13 20.38%

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hi guys more stats for you lowest bank downturn would have been at start were the bank would have been down -11 pts, but soon back up again, lowest recorded period of downswing was 35 pts but bank would have been at around 110 pt profit by then apart from some weeks were their are between 2 and 5 pt loses most weeks record a profit, the largest profit week was 98.45 pts 

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1 hour ago, Bubbles180 said:

me again, on the stats just note thta the WIN stat is based on a selection winning or placing so we can use this as a figure as a race were a profit was returned 

Have you based your returns on sp's or billys tips prices?

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