MCLARKE Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 This was a genuine question, not an implied criticism. I must admit I have been looking at the selections at 7pm, as per the opening page on the site. I wasn't aware they were available at 5pm. I had assumed that there would be some value filter in the selection process, apologies for this incorrect assumption. I am still looking at the horse racing data sources, I will respond once I have come to any conclusion. My 1st comment on this forum was "First post on here but must congratulate you on your excellent tips" As I stated in my original post, keep up the good work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted January 23, 2018 Author Share Posted January 23, 2018 (edited) just a note to @MCLARKE just seen tomorrows selections and backe dthe NAP as always and price is currently available need to be quick as it usually does get backed early and drop in price. Hope you get on Edited January 23, 2018 by Bubbles180 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Thanks. Small bet on the nap at 11/4 (currently making a small loss on naps so treading gently). Main bet on MEZMAAR EW (11/1 still available). Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted January 23, 2018 Author Share Posted January 23, 2018 Yeh down 2.50 pt this month with 6 wins only but can make it up good win today Only been 2 months down and worst was 2.35pt corky 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted January 24, 2018 Author Share Posted January 24, 2018 (edited) @MCLARKE here is the data for the Naps Selections since Aug 2017 for your information Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total 20.12 12.21 -2.38 -0.30 37.18 66.83 145.00 Total Staked 66.83 Flat Profit 46.09% ROI 3.90 Average Odds 90 Losers 55 Winners 145 Runners 37.93% Strike Rate 25.67% Expected Strike Rate 37.22 Expected Winners 1.48 IV 12.34 ELLR Edited January 24, 2018 by Bubbles180 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted January 24, 2018 Author Share Posted January 24, 2018 (edited) Jans Stats @MCLARKE 23.00 Total Staked -2.51 Flat Profit -10.91% ROI 4.96 Average Losing Odds 3.42 Average Winning Odds 4.52 Average Odds 17 Losers 6 Winners 23 Runners 26.09% Strike Rate 22.12% Expected Strike Rate 5.09 Expected Winners 1.18 IV 19.47 ELLR Edited January 24, 2018 by Bubbles180 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birchy Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 @Bubbles180 Forgive my stupidity, but what is IV and ELLR? As you are a fellow betfair user, have you tried laying <= 4/1 and backing everything else? Bubbles180 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 23 minutes ago, Birchy said: @Bubbles180 Forgive my stupidity, but what is IV and ELLR? As you are a fellow betfair user, have you tried laying <= 4/1 and backing everything else? IV = Impact Value This is if the value is below 1.00 then the selections are running below expectation and a loss is more common, if above then they are running above expectation and should make a profit. ELLR = Estimated Longest Losing Run This estimates the longest losing run basec on the current strike rate and updates based on that figure. Im not a big layer of horses but yes i do lay the odds on sometimes, I dont back all selections as a huge bank would be required i do back thsm using my own filter systems. Birchy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 23 hours ago, Bubbles180 said: ELLR = Estimated Longest Losing Run This estimates the longest losing run basec on the current strike rate and updates based on that figure. What is the ELLR for both sides in the Conflict Cup and the doubles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted January 31, 2018 Author Share Posted January 31, 2018 @Xtc12 the numbers are UK 11.29 IRISH 11.77 DOUBLES 26.25 That is up to date from start Xtc12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birchy Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Soooooo, I started backing the PL tips in December, which turned out to be the worst month in history. Then I decided to recoup my losses by backing only the NAPS. 17 bets, 2 winners so far. I hereby offer my most sincere apologies to you all for jinxing the PL tips and have requested that "Birchy's Luck" be added to the Oxford dictionary, next to "Sod's Law". Good luck guys and gals, hope my curse will lift soon. Saint R and Bubbles180 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 I don't think its Birchy's Luck but its definitely Birchy's something! the voice of doom rocks up once again, the most negative guy I know. Just go and find something else to whinge about, you are obviously a poor gambler, switching from one thing to another. I see you were even asking how to do Speed figs. Just to balance things out, the tips made an overall profit last month, are in front this month (speak too soon), the Naps ended in profit last month too. The Top 10 tracks thread is in profit again, the overall Naps thread is in profit. Give me some credit, just a tiny little bit maybe..... Please don't go on about prices, BOG etc.. I can only publish whats available at the time i post them. To be fair the Naps are doing crap this month buts thats my fault, I pick them, simple as that, we all have bad runs , I apologise, hey, try picking your own Good luck in your quest for an easy life scrounging off others Xtc12, ralphie7, Sir Puntalot and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 @Birchy as Billy says mate seems to be your luck, their are many ways using PL Tips to make money, you just have to be a judge on what is best for you as a backer, You say you lost in December and now in February but had you backed In January you would have made 21.50 pt profit which would have got some of your december losses back, as Billy says its no good switching from 1 system to another you need to make a decision on one system or several smaller ones as a portfolio and run them for at least 3 to 6 months and make sure your bank is sufficient to cover losses, their are plenty of stats info in the forum to help you. Birchy, Xtc12 and vikki37 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birchy Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Geez, lighten up billy! I wasn't having a dig or being the "voice of doom". I was simply saying that I'VE had bad luck and have made some bad decisions (ie switching strategies at the worst possible time). That does NOT imply the tips are poor, I'm just backing the wrong ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 20 hours ago, Birchy said: Geez, lighten up billy! I wasn't having a dig or being the "voice of doom". I was simply saying that I'VE had bad luck and have made some bad decisions (ie switching strategies at the worst possible time). That does NOT imply the tips are poor, I'm just backing the wrong ones. Have to agree with @BillyHills - you are very negative in your posts in general. Whether you mean to be or not, only you know, but you just state the obvious and repeat over and over - it's a bit mindnumbing to be honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 New stats sheet showing monthly results and odds results https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HZlh3Mue_JQWEsVzGIebCZSzLyPW79Qcw5kcDW9iPdU/edit?usp=sharing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donal Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 hi bubbles will you be doing the 4/1 + chart for results and billys top ten tracks results at 4/1 + your input is so helpfull thank you donal Bubbles180 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 New stats sheet showing monthly results and odds results https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HZlh3Mue_JQWEsVzGIebCZSzLyPW79Qcw5kcDW9iPdU/edit?usp=sharing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 (edited) @donal the 4/1+ Sheet is updated at the end of the month, is done upto Jan 2018, I have not done a sheet for Billys system but you can check them by using the filter on the 4/1+ stats sheet, will try to do it for Feb when the tracks have been published. Edited February 24, 2018 by Bubbles180 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evertorial Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 (edited) On 19/02/2018 at 8:15 PM, Birchy said: Soooooo, I started backing the PL tips in December, which turned out to be the worst month in history. Then I decided to recoup my losses by backing only the NAPS. 17 bets, 2 winners so far. I hereby offer my most sincere apologies to you all for jinxing the PL tips and have requested that "Birchy's Luck" be added to the Oxford dictionary, next to "Sod's Law". Good luck guys and gals, hope my curse will lift soon. First off I want to say the tips are good tips as I now follow them and have done for 3 weeks all 4/1 + and I am making a profit. However birchy you need to be aware of how important odds are in the making of profit. It is essential you take early prices as advised on the tips page. You also MUST take bog. The tips make an average of around 2 points a day profit. If you are taking prices which are a point shorter here and there or not taking bog so missing a point here and there then you are losing the long term profit. I have been accused here of working for a rival etc but certainly not. I think this is a good site and will use it until I'm limited but I am spreading my stakes very finely as well as placing mug bets to try to keep my accounts open. As taking early prices is something flagged up very quick to bookies. Any way keep up the good work guys Edited February 23, 2018 by evertorial Sir Puntalot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted February 24, 2018 Author Share Posted February 24, 2018 (edited) Hi guys have updated the 4/1 + (4/1 to 25/1 odds) stats sheet to show monthly stats as well now, upto Jan 2018 including Bets, wins, S/R, P&L and ROI Have also gone through each month and found that the longest bank drawdown on any month, within the month period, and overall is 65 points, i dont believe in LLR overall just monthly, as each month you start with a new bank so to me it does not matter if you have a LLR of 50 and that may happen 3 or 4 times a year (which is true) if you settle your bank monthly, this would only effect any one doing 3, 6 or 12 month runs, even doing that the longest draw down on your original starting bank is only 16 points in 18 months, therefore if you started in Aug 2016 with a 100 point bank and backed at 1% of the bank, the lowest ever point of your bank would have been 84 points, if you did that your bank would stand at the end of JAN 2018 at 1,499.39 in total a P&L of 1,399.39. Edited February 24, 2018 by Bubbles180 Saint R and Xtc12 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted February 24, 2018 Author Share Posted February 24, 2018 As you may be able to tell by the time frame im a bit of any insomniac, and when I get going on something I dont stop till i have finished see you tomorrow Xtc12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donal Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 hi bubbles forgive me im a bit of a luddite i cant seem to find your your updated 4/1+ and also you mentioned 4/1 to 12/1 leaving out irish tracks ect is their a section on the forum that i am not reading re these thanks again donal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted February 24, 2018 Author Share Posted February 24, 2018 @donal look on spreadsheets page mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 4/1+ stats for tracks NH ONLY Taunton +516.00 Doncaster +718 (NH Only) Kelso +631.00 Catterick -46.50 Carlisle +1007.20 Wincanton +532.24 Cheltenham +507.00 Ffos Las +140.00 Ascot +801.70 BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donal Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 bubbles forgive me if you think im oversteping the mark but is it possible to show whold it be a profit or loss situation if one punted all the gordon elliot horses ridden by jack kennedy thank you donal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 WILL SORT THAT FOR YOU @donal BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 (edited) 13 hours ago, donal said: bubbles forgive me if you think im oversteping the mark but is it possible to show whold it be a profit or loss situation if one punted all the gordon elliot horses ridden by jack kennedy thank you donal Hope this is what you wanted Trainer G Elliot Jockey J Kennedy P&L Type All Non Hcap Hcap All -87.33 3.03 -90.36 Chase 30.53 36.01 -5.48 Hurdle -117.86 -32.98 -84.88 Strike Rate Type All Non Hcap Hcap All 19.25% 22.99% 13.38% Chase 23.08% 25.37% 18.92% Hurdle 17.60% 21.88% 11.28% Edited March 1, 2018 by Bubbles180 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 thank you again [ was shocked at how bad the profit and loss came out at ] Bubbles180 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donal Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 hi bubbles looking back over the monthly daily tips challenge luckypants and bymatrix seem to have a reasonable strike rate most months is it possible to see what the yeild would be for a 1pt win on their daily selection from when they started posting hope your enjoying cheltenham Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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