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Bubbles180
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I am still puzzled as to the accuracy of the results in regards to accumulators . I looked up results for the 31/10/17

Wait for me fell in the 3 25 chep but the stats show that it was a winner which means looking for possible doubles the stats are not accurate

Also the winning trebles  prices and the amount won do not match

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  • 1 month later...

First post on here but must congratulate you on your excellent tips.

I was actually looking for a decent forum to use but was intrigued by the claims of 16 winning months.

I must admit I was initially sceptical, especially after analysing the 1st 3 weeks which showed a loss of over £2,000 on paper. However in the 2 months since then the tips have shown a profit of £2,500 on paper despite a relatively poor December.

I have limited my bets to EW selections only at odds of over 9/1, these show a substantial profit over the last 3 months whilst win selections show a loss.

I suppose the only issue I have is that often the prices are not available, this is exacerbated by the fact that I have restrictions with several bookies on BOGOF etc. If I cannot obtain the price then I do not bet. As always with betting, self discipline is crucial.

I have made a profit of £900 from an investment of £1,500 which is fantastic.

The biggest win was £600 on Mine Now on the 28th.

Keep up the good work !

 

 

 

 

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Thanks for that @MCLARKE
Poor spell at the moment which i put down to so many meetings being lost to the weather and those being run are on awful ground which is not good for form students.

Anyway we try our best and provide a tip for every race come rain or shine and overall the profits speak for themselves.

Heres to a profitable 2018:cheers

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11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

First post on here but must congratulate you on your excellent tips.

I was actually looking for a decent forum to use but was intrigued by the claims of 16 winning months.

I must admit I was initially sceptical, especially after analysing the 1st 3 weeks which showed a loss of over £2,000 on paper. However in the 2 months since then the tips have shown a profit of £2,500 on paper despite a relatively poor December.

I have limited my bets to EW selections only at odds of over 9/1, these show a substantial profit over the last 3 months whilst win selections show a loss.

I suppose the only issue I have is that often the prices are not available, this is exacerbated by the fact that I have restrictions with several bookies on BOGOF etc. If I cannot obtain the price then I do not bet. As always with betting, self discipline is crucial.

I have made a profit of £900 from an investment of £1,500 which is fantastic.

The biggest win was £600 on Mine Now on the 28th.

Keep up the good work !

 

 

 

 

:welcome to PL @MCLARKE  :ok 

December/January is always a rough time, but you have to do your best despite that. Glad you've utilised the tips to your advantage and a nice wad of cash. ;) 

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I've been backing the PL tips 'top rated' selections religiously for a while now. I back them on the Betfair exchange, requesting the 'best odds' displayed on the tips page (plus 5% for commission) and get matched on about 90% of these bets. The other 10% are settled at BSP which is often significantly better than ISP.  I started a previous thread about prices and value betting, the outcome of which was that the prices aren't too critical. However, my results so far seem to disagree:

P&L: -308.08
Risk: 1430.00
Bet Count: 671
ROI: -21.54%
Win Rate: 0.23
Recent: L.L.L.L.L.W.L.L.L.L

Am I taking poor prices or did I have the misfortune to join at the beginning of a massive downswing?

Edited by Birchy
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@Birchy @BillyHills I don't think "excuses" comes into it. December and January are notoriously poor months racing with a ton of meetings called off every year. Regardless of the poor run, taking into account all the results including accumulators and NAPS for December. It showed only a £151 loss to £20 stakes in a horrendous month. ;) 

Not sure why NAPS aren't included in the figures posted above, but they should be, as they're included in our singles record. :ok 

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3 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:

@Birchy @BillyHills Not sure why NAPS aren't included in the figures posted above, but they should be, as they're included in our singles record. :ok 

My bad, I basically back every runner tipped as singles, which includes the daily treble selections, the NAPS and the Top Rated. I back them all to win only. The only exception is that I was previously backing the each way tips to win but have since realised they are only +P&L if backed EW, so I am currently disregarding them. Can someone please confirm that the EW tips are losing if backed to win only?

I'm wondering if I should be increasing my stake for the NAPS?

Regarding prices, I've been beating BOG most of the time and at often match it on the other bets, with occasional (odds on) selections being slightly shorter.

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On 11/21/2017 at 2:11 PM, 911RCZ said:

I am still puzzled as to the accuracy of the results in regards to accumulators . I looked up results for the 31/10/17

Wait for me fell in the 3 25 chep but the stats show that it was a winner which means looking for possible doubles the stats are not accurate

Also the winning trebles  prices and the amount won do not match

This was an error and it's just the way the data was exporting, but has now been rectified and trebles only show as win/loss as a whole. :ok 

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16 hours ago, Birchy said:

My bad, I basically back every runner tipped as singles, which includes the daily treble selections, the NAPS and the Top Rated. I back them all to win only. The only exception is that I was previously backing the each way tips to win but have since realised they are only +P&L if backed EW, so I am currently disregarding them. Can someone please confirm that the EW tips are losing if backed to win only?

I'm wondering if I should be increasing my stake for the NAPS?

Regarding prices, I've been beating BOG most of the time and at often match it on the other bets, with occasional (odds on) selections being slightly shorter.

Unfortunately, you have started at the wrong time. It is also up to you how to bet and choosing what to bet on. It's also up to you to carry on or stop following so maybe you can stop complaining about the loss and having doubts all the time. (Sorry, not meaning to be rude or anything.)

I can tell you though that I started around September. Up to November, I won around £500 just to £1 stakes and 0.5 each way on some odds. For the ten tracks to follow, I bet £5 or 2.5 each way. I usually bet on that day, few hours before the race so the price does differ a lot though. Hence, the difference in profit with others. From December til now, I sometimes increased my stakes to £2, haha maybe bad idea but anyway, it has been a loss of around £140. However, that still makes me in profit of around £360, thanks to BH/G and PL. I'm sure that we will go up high again. We just can't predict correctly even with the right stats sometimes due to weather conditions affecting the ground etc. It's difficult for anyone and everyone, really. Maybe try another few months and see? Or lower the stakes so your loss might be less during this winter period. Good luck whatever you choose to bet on. Hope all your bets go well. :hope:ok

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It's certainly tough to feel optimistic at the moment, however the results speak for themselves and I'm hoping we'll see a turnaround before my £500 starting bank is depleted. On the plus side, I am fully aware that it can take a few thousand bets to prove or disprove a betting strategy, so I'm in for the long haul.

Out of interest, does anyone have the P&L stats for the tips at the published prices, ie not including BOG?

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Quote

Out of interest, does anyone have the P&L stats for the tips at the published prices, ie not including BOG?

Birchy if I didn't know better I might think you had been sent by a rival to ask awkward questions, funny how you have popped up at the one time we had a lean spell.

Anyway you have asked and I and others have tried to answer your queries. I think you should just make a decision whether to trust the selections or not and leave it at that.

Just one final word about BOG, too many people read too much into this, for example we had 6 meetings last Saturday, 42 selections of which we predicted 12 winners, not one of those dozen drifted to take advantage of BOG. Its far more important to take the prices as early as possible.

Best of luck:ok

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3 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Birchy if I didn't know better I might think you had been sent by a rival to ask awkward questions, funny how you have popped up at the one time we had a lean spell.

Anyway you have asked and I and others have tried to answer your queries. I think you should just make a decision whether to trust the selections or not and leave it at that.

Just one final word about BOG, too many people read too much into this, for example we had 6 meetings last Saturday, 42 selections of which we predicted 12 winners, not one of those dozen drifted to take advantage of BOG. Its far more important to take the prices as early as possible.

Best of luck:ok

I've been a gambler for 25 years, the last 10 years of which have been automated via the betfair exchange. So I have a vast experience of betting strategies and am not one to invest my hard-earned into something I don't fully understand. I treat "gambling" as a calculated investment, so like to dissect as much information as I can possibly get. That's why I am asking "awkward" questions. At the end of the day, you have nothing to hide?

It does indeed seem that I discovered this website at the worst possible time. As you say, it is my own responsibility to decide whether or not to follow the tips, as it is for all of us. As stated previously, I'm in for the long haul as I DO trust the feedback on this website.

I am simply trying to establish whether or not I'm getting my bets on at the right prices, as they ARE critical to the success or failure of any betting strategy. For instance, if I said I had a strategy with a 50% strike rate and £1000 profit after 500 bets, you might think it impressive. But if the average price is less than evens, then it's clearly not going to be profitable long term. That profit is obviously the result of a lucky streak. It might take 600 bets, it might take 5000 bets, but at some point that strategy WILL become negative P&L. I know you already understand this. The fact that the PL tips have shown a profit over 10's of thousands bets speaks for itself. I just need to make sure I am getting on at the right prices as we already know they are not profitable at SP or BSP.

Judging by your comments, I assume the P&L for published prices is unavailable? As I am using the published prices for my bets, this information is important as I could easily be betting with a negative expectation.

Edited by Birchy
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I apologise to everyone for starting to back in December. Since then results have been less than brilliant. Months back I started to back but stopped after a 60 point downturn. Life wasn't meant to be easy but it wasn't meant to be this hard !!

In future I'll try putting extra on NAP and couple treble picks in doubles as well as limiting other bets to top 33 tracks that beat the averages of strike rate, ROI and PPB.

Any thoughts ?

Also, has anyone looked at EW picks and whether they would be more profitable backing win only ?

I've tried to paste summary of results by track up to end of December but not sure if it will work.

Course Bets Wins S/R STAKED P&L ROI PPB
Aintree 71 18 25.35% 1420 -78.30 -5.51% -1.10
Ascot 224 73 32.59% 4480 1588.05 35.45% 7.09
Ayr 284 64 22.54% 5680 -888.20 -15.64% -3.13
Ballinrobe 81 18 22.22% 1620 -281.70 -17.39% -3.48
Bangor 136 46 33.82% 2720 463.09 17.03% 3.41
Bath 189 52 27.51% 3780 -136.70 -3.62% -0.72
Bellewstown 52 11 21.15% 1040 -447.50 -43.03% -8.61
Beverley 181 48 26.52% 3620 393.75 10.88% 2.18
Brighton 210 54 25.71% 4200 172.30 4.10% 0.82
Carlisle 227 76 33.48% 4540 1445.36 31.84% 6.37
Cartmel 71 19 26.76% 1420 84.10 5.92% 1.18
Catterick 242 85 35.12% 4840 1540.10 31.82% 6.36
Chelmsford 570 170 29.82% 11400 1484.06 13.02% 2.60
Cheltenham 152 46 30.26% 3040 426.30 14.02% 2.80
Chepstow 288 83 28.82% 5760 -87.00 -1.51% -0.30
Chester 124 46 37.10% 2480 1391.10 56.09% 11.22
Clonmel 108 34 31.48% 2160 229.00 10.60% 2.12
Cork 163 46 28.22% 3260 47.40 1.45% 0.29
Curragh 191 62 32.46% 3820 639.71 16.75% 3.35
Doncaster 329 91 27.66% 6580 426.13 6.48% 1.30
Down Royal 111 30 27.03% 2220 -25.90 -1.17% -0.23
Downpatrick 93 27 29.03% 1860 538.60 28.96% 5.79
Dundalk 434 112 25.81% 8680 -30.00 -0.35% -0.07
Epsom 92 14 15.22% 1840 -687.10 -37.34% -7.47
Exeter 145 41 28.28% 2900 -391.12 -13.49% -2.70
Fairyhouse 193 51 26.42% 3860 -337.00 -8.73% -1.75
Fakenham 88 23 26.14% 1760 147.70 8.39% 1.68
Ffos Las 184 51 27.72% 3680 665.10 18.07% 3.61
Fontwell 195 51 26.15% 3900 -399.14 -10.23% -2.05
Galway 119 40 33.61% 2380 76.70 3.22% 0.64
Goodwood 157 49 31.21% 3140 619.70 19.74% 3.95
Gowran Park 153 51 33.33% 3060 956.20 31.25% 6.25
Hamilton 149 37 24.83% 2980 1.00 0.03% 0.01
Haydock 272 78 28.68% 5440 383.72 7.05% 1.41
Hereford 77 19 24.68% 1540 -184.20 -11.96% -2.39
Hexham 133 44 33.08% 2660 384.50 14.45% 2.89
Huntingdon 141 45 31.91% 2820 -4.40 -0.16% -0.03
Kelso 117 35 29.91% 2340 568.20 24.28% 4.86
Kempton 738 213 28.86% 14760 1378.44 9.34% 1.87
Kilbeggan 73 19 26.03% 1460 45.20 3.10% 0.62
Killarney 106 36 33.96% 2120 802.60 37.86% 7.57
Laytown 12 3 25.00% 240 112.00 46.67% 9.33
Leicester 259 84 32.43% 5180 384.20 7.42% 1.48
Leopardstown 221 58 26.24% 4420 698.20 15.80% 3.16
Limerick 184 56 30.43% 3680 371.77 10.10% 2.02
Lingfield 720 192 26.67% 14400 -542.26 -3.77% -0.75
Listowel 114 26 22.81% 2280 -497.50 -21.82% -4.36
Ludlow 149 46 30.87% 2980 285.44 9.58% 1.92
Market Rasen 188 60 31.91% 3760 166.50 4.43% 0.89
Musselburgh 250 83 33.20% 5000 1333.80 26.68% 5.34
Naas 160 51 31.88% 3200 11.80 0.37% 0.07
Navan 178 48 26.97% 3560 -114.99 -3.23% -0.65
Newbury 265 78 29.43% 5300 173.30 3.27% 0.65
Newcastle 661 180 27.23% 13220 712.11 5.39% 1.08
Newmarket 366 114 31.15% 7320 1107.60 15.13% 3.03
Newton Abbot 150 47 31.33% 3000 170.73 5.69% 1.14
Nottingham 205 40 19.51% 4100 -722.40 -17.62% -3.52
Perth 131 37 28.24% 2620 214.50 8.19% 1.64
Plumpton 135 38 28.15% 2700 -215.00 -7.96% -1.59
Pontefract 143 34 23.78% 2860 -327.63 -11.46% -2.29
Punchestown 164 46 28.05% 3280 472.80 14.41% 2.88
Redcar 188 61 32.45% 3760 1418.10 37.72% 7.54
Ripon 143 44 30.77% 2860 605.83 21.18% 4.24
Roscommon 83 21 25.30% 1660 -321.00 -19.34% -3.87
Salisbury 162 47 29.01% 3240 651.95 20.12% 4.02
Sandown 209 54 25.84% 4180 77.40 1.85% 0.37
Sedgefield 174 43 24.71% 3480 -496.90 -14.28% -2.86
Sligo 52 19 36.54% 1040 202.10 19.43% 3.89
Southwell 451 133 29.49% 9020 686.64 7.61% 1.52
Stratford 160 39 24.38% 3200 -717.70 -22.43% -4.49
Taunton 122 50 40.98% 2440 1090.40 44.69% 8.94
Thirsk 157 52 33.12% 3140 1076.50 34.28% 6.86
Thurles 111 34 30.63% 2220 75.50 3.40% 0.68
Tipperary 118 35 29.66% 2360 -284.55 -12.06% -2.41
Towcester 89 23 25.84% 1780 71.80 4.03% 0.81
Tramore 109 28 25.69% 2180 312.80 14.35% 2.87
Uttoxeter 206 55 26.70% 4120 -245.80 -5.97% -1.19
Warwick 148 40 27.03% 2960 -806.80 -27.26% -5.45
Wetherby 177 55 31.07% 3540 216.98 6.13% 1.23
Wexford 92 25 27.17% 1840 -370.50 -20.14% -4.03
Wincanton 122 43 35.25% 2440 549.24 22.51% 4.50
Windsor 229 69 30.13% 4580 679.90 14.84% 2.97
Wolverhampton 759 193 25.43% 15180 467.28 3.08% 0.62
Worcester 198 52 26.26% 3960 -181.60 -4.59% -0.92
Yarmouth 222 69 31.08% 4440 614.80 13.85% 2.77
York 158 36 22.78% 3160 138.80 4.39% 0.88
  16957 4849 28.60% 339140 22225.99 6.55% 1.31
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Hi mate, thanks for the course stats.

I did a test a while back on EW bets and it was certainly better to back them EW rather than win only. 

Interesting that December was the worst month overall so far the best yet for Naps and Trebles, just doesn't make any sense.
I personally think the AW has performed well below par since the turf season finished, we are now getting all sorts of unproven horses trying out the surface as they have no alternative at the moment. During the turf season we only get AW specialists running at places like Chelmsford/Lingfield and Kempton. I think its wise to pick and choose tracks as I do in my 'Top 10 Tracks thread'

Good luck

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Hi all this looks fantastic but is a lot of information to get through. So just out of interest what conclusions have been made as the most profitable and practical way of following these tips. 

  While it seems good hypothetically to follow all tips it wouldn't be practical for most followers.

  From what I can see it could be considered profitable to bet doubles on the selected treble bets for each day. Would this be correct?

I think I also read that betting on all selections over 4/1 creates the best profit long term and anything over 8/1 backed as each way? Can this be confirmed.

 

Many thanks 

 

Ps great results since you started by the way, possibly the best around

Edited by evertorial
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Do not back odds on shots, I have been let down so many time recently its unbelievable how these horses could have started at such short prices.

Do not back in Maidens, Novices, Sellers, Claimers or 2yo races!!

Seriously, the figures published are for backing every selection £20 win and £10 EW if 8/1 or over. Its really up to the individual on how to get the most out of these selections. Personally I tend to follow the tips at the best performing tracks and any handicap on turf.

Backing the trebles as doubles has provided a few winning bets but I couldn't say if its profitable long term.

Good luck and welcome to the forum:ok

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3 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Do not back odds on shots, I have been let down so many time recently its unbelievable how these horses could have started at such short prices.

Do not back in Maidens, Novices, Sellers, Claimers or 2yo races!!

Seriously, the figures published are for backing every selection £20 win and £10 EW if 8/1 or over. Its really up to the individual on how to get the most out of these selections. Personally I tend to follow the tips at the best performing tracks and any handicap on turf.

Backing the trebles as doubles has provided a few winning bets but I couldn't say if its profitable long term.

Good luck and welcome to the forum:ok

More or less this myself,even started leaving out some of the night all weather meetings too.Will back each way 6/1 and above as I get my stake back a few more times.

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4 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Do not back odds on shots, I have been let down so many time recently its unbelievable how these horses could have started at such short prices.

Do not back in Maidens, Novices, Sellers, Claimers or 2yo races!!

Seriously, the figures published are for backing every selection £20 win and £10 EW if 8/1 or over. Its really up to the individual on how to get the most out of these selections. Personally I tend to follow the tips at the best performing tracks and any handicap on turf.

Backing the trebles as doubles has provided a few winning bets but I couldn't say if its profitable long term.

Good luck and welcome to the forum:ok

Hi Billy, 

I'm quite new to horse racing. Could you please advise what the best performing tracks are and which are handicaps on turf?

 

Cheers 

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The Dingo has put a lot of effort into his table just further up the page which points out the most profitable courses. 

I have a thread which just backs the Tips on my top 10 recommended tracks

 

The 'handicaps on turf' just means any handicap race over the jumps which are all run on the turf as opposed to some flat races which are run on an artificial surface.

For example on tomorrows Kempton card which is over jumps I would only bet in the 1.30, 2.40, 3.15 and 3.45:ok

 

Screen Shot 2018-01-12 at 22.58.59.png

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Hi bubbles I have a request. Can you please work out the roi of all bets since the start that are above evens but less than 4/1.

 

I think it's been suggested that odds on tips tend to be not too profitable. However it would be interesting to see what these particular tips yield. Thanks 

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That's great stuff.

Just to trying to disect a but further.... What about if we were backing between 4/1 and 6/1 tips do these make a profit long term? Many thanks 

 

And also I couldn't work out for sure what you got from the daily trebles. If these are backed as 3x doubles will that make a profit long term? 

Edited by evertorial
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7 minutes ago, evertorial said:

That's great stuff.

Just to trying to disect a but further.... What about if we were backing between 4/1 and 6/1 tips do these make a profit long term? Many thanks 

 

And also I couldn't work out for sure what you got from the daily trebles. If these are backed as 3x doubles will that make a profit long term? 

No idea mate on either question...........

What do you want, it all laid out on a plate, you have to put the groundwork in yourself sometimes:lol

(try searching the other threads with 'PL Tips')

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Billy is right need to start working some of this out for yourself, we are here to help but if you want to find your own angles, use the forum, blogs and spreadsheet everything is their for you (if you know how tp do it)

OK 4/1 to 6/1 only at advised prices would be +£9037.90

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2 hours ago, Bubbles180 said:

OK 4/1 to 6/1 only at advised prices would be +£9037.90

First of all, you're doing brilliant work. Keep it up! :ok

Are the "advised" prices the ones in the results spreadsheet or the ones advised when the tips are first published?

Edited by Birchy
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