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evertorial
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The tip by pl tips treat yourself In the 7.55 kempton was a fantastic tip. Went off at 33/1 and ran a blinder. Very unlucky to not win that in the end but really looked like he would about 4 out. Just pipped by the short priced favourite
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This sounds very interesting bob. Would be very good to see how you get on and I will follow with great interest.
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evertorial reacted to a post in a topic:
Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018
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I've gone for the following 10 using the excellent bet365 offer to help maximise my value. Anibale fly : 2 points Total recall: 1 and a half points I just know: 1 point Gas line boy: 1 point Ucello conti: 1 point Milansbar: 1 point Regal encore: 1 point Shantou flyer: 1 point Saint are: half point Maggio: half point I also have vintage clouds on board at 40/1 with nrnb insurance in the likely event he won't race. I'm also keeping an eye on tiger roll and may look to get him on somewhere if a good value free bet arises.
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I always said they are good tips. Although the volume of missed rule 4s in the results concerns me. And also I have found some inaccuracies in the results too. You said on the 7th March that fortunes pearl won the race when in fact he didn't. Scrutiny comes with everything. I could sit here praising all day and get nowhere or scrutinise to help something improve. I and many others no doubt spend a lot of time putting on these tips so it's very important that results are accurate because if points are awarded in the results as mentioned above that didn't happen then it makes the follower think, am I actually following a true profitable service? Hopefully this was just a one off error. And with the rule 4s I just need to bare in mind that maybe the user can only realistically get about 50% of the results that the results page suggests. I can name 3 rule 4s missed off from a quick glance from March. Clyne, critical thinking and shower cross. I am still happy to use the tips with this in mind as profit should still be there, but just not nearly as much as the headline suggests. It's not trying to burst the bubble, it's one of many who spend a long term trying to bet on these tips knowing the importance of the previous results to maintain belief that profit can be made
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I'm sitting in a villa that I own as we speak in the Algarve thanks to money I've earned from gambling. Waking up to a lovely warm day and about to play a round of 18 holes at my local golf course before watching the Exeter and Carlisle racing fixtures on my skybet app.
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But how do you know which tips were tips quoted as 4/1 And over and which ones may have startrd under 4 and drifted. The PL results page for pl tips only includes whatever was highest out of original tip price or the price with best odds guaranteed. It doesn't show both of them. There is no way of knowing the original quoted price for many of the tips on the spreadsheet that got best odds guaranteed
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Further to this bubbles. Do all of your 4+ results follow the same rule as this since the pl tips started? I would guess not as only in the last months since you recorded it has been this way. Is that correct? It's quite important to know as I'm not sure whether to follow 2/1 above as well because many of these can drift
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Lowering stakes is never a good idea. That just means it will take twice as long to get back to square one even if the luck miracously changes. I have a bank to deal with it. However I think you need to maybe review your stats. You said the biggest drawdown was around 65 points. Well that has now been beaten convincingly. It must be around 80 points down currently which is staggering. And so far today the trend is continuing. Already 4 or 5 points down again. With horses not even looking like winning. I don't want to give up but at the same time it's going to take a mammoth amount of wins to even get back to even and at the moment even getting one win looks far fetched.
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It's in a massive loss because I started recording around the end of March and since then I think the tips have made a loss of around 70 points. So I started then and lost consistently. Im firmly expecting another 10-20 points lost today on the bets I have on today with the way things have gone.
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That's some good research there. I am going to persist with the tips for a bit longer and just put it down to horrific bad luck. I am still only a third through my bank after this dreadful run so hopefully it can only improve. My theory in how the PL tips make profit is as follows.... Selections are made considering form and conditions the day before the race. Tips and Prices are posted on site that are the best available and often the first available prices with bookies who offer best odds guaranteed. Now here's how it makes money in theory. Let's say 30% of these tips are steamers (price drops by the time of starting price). These tips are now the tips that have value and are the ones that make the money long term. The rest of the tips either stay as they are in price or drift out. Now normally the drifters would even out the playing field as you would lose value on these tips. However, with the use of best odds guaranteed you are getting a fair price on these tips and a price that represents fair value for that horse. Generally speaking you will still lose in the long run with the 'drifter bets', this is because the bookies always give you a slightly lower price than true value and that's how they make money. However for the pl tips the edge gained in the steamers does outweigh the bookies edge lost in drifters. For example of a steamer yesterday I took a quoted price of 9/2 on Calder Prince. He went off 2/1. That's significant value. Whereas there are other horses where you take 3/1 and they may start 11/2. The beauty of bog is that you still get a fair price to chance and you won't lose too much in the long run. In the defence of PL tips there have been some great shouts recently that just havnt performed. A few that come to mind are juggler tipped at 5/1 and went off 2/1 and ran poorly, this sort of thing has happened far too regularly recently. Horses tipped at good prices and just not performing, it's extremely frustrating. I think today there must have been about 7 or 8 horses who finished 2nd and many by a head. It really is unfathomable bad luck.
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Starting to get very concerned now. Every day seems to be a heavy loss day with pl tips. I'm losing a lot of money. I have a bank setup to withstand losing runs based on a lowest drawdown of 65 points in the history of the tips advised by bubbles. I never expected to hit that lowest eb in a matter of weeks since following the tips. They just seem to constantly be losing or finishing 2nd. I keep saying to myself everyday that it will be the day it will turn and it never does. There have been an odd few profit days but they have been swamped by losing days. 60 points down in a few weeks? Its shocking. Can anyone give me any kind of incentive to carry on?
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Sir Puntalot reacted to a post in a topic:
Stats
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I was following since 1st of Feb and not recording. But started recording from mid March. I couldn't really complain about the tips because there have been a lot of steamers in there. For example race just gone we had 8/1 on gamesome. He went off less than half that price, so we got good value but then got no sort of race from him. The luck really is at a low at the moment. It Has to change as the law of probabilities means it will have to, hopefully sooner rather than later.
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Hi all. I've been recording my results now in following the pl tips and I do 4/1+ bets. I'm now around 40 points down in about 2 weeks. Makes very grim reading. Has it simply just been a bad run or can I expect more of the same? I understand that the largest draw down is said to be around 65 points but 40 points already since I've been recording is concerning. I am taking all odds as advised on the tips page as well as getting best odds guaranteed with each bet. Are we simply going through a very rough patch at the moment? I have been doing the tips before this from the start of Feb and I'm pretty sure no profit was made before I started recording. If it was then it was minimal
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Surely tamasek star bets will be refunded? Stuck in the gate? Any ideas?
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evertorial reacted to a post in a topic:
Stats
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Thanks for the reply. While I take on board what your saying I do think your understating the importance of bog. I would say the importance of bog is far more significant than your implying however. In the last month I would say I have made well over 20-30 points more than i would have without bog. I'm talking about taking on horses at 6/1 who raise to 12/1 and win. I remember that happening a couple of times and very regularly I will get horses who raise a point or two. Bog in my opinion is essential to make profit. Had I not had bog last month I would be in quite a significant loss.