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Monthly Nap Competition - Monday Nov. 14th


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MUSSELBURGH 3.50 Jonny Delta @ 7/1 Skybet e/w thanks

Jonny Delta....from Jim Goldie yard the 9yo started off in NHF winning his first race at Ayr 2m heavy before Jim turned him on the turf flat racing where he won 3 times and also over hurdles once with various place finishes ,

He ran here 11 days ago over 2m good when he finished 2nd in his first hurdle race this season off a mark of 112 he had some useful rivals behind him on that occasion and 2lb drop in the ratings also makes life easier for him today with the drop in class,

The yard change jockey today as Callum Bewley is booked to ride Green Zone for Lisa Harrison yard so Sam Coltherd claiming 7lbs comes in

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4.00 Newcastle

Kevin Ryan has got his string in fine form at present and he runs Brilliant Vanguard in this race and he has ran well last 2 starts at Kempton penultimate start over 7f, doing best of those held up. Latest effort can be excused returned to 6f clearly too sharp but still a good effort, step up back to 7f a plus. Still fairly relatively raced and could have more yet to offer.

 

1pt win Brilliant Vanguard 11/4 PP

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1.05 Plu - Black Caesar - EW at 22/1 bog wm hill

Novice hurdle - just under 2 miles

all maiden hurdlers here and not much form to go on

my selection has won 3 times on the flat and goes well at Brighton. I figure he should handle this tight track OK

One interesting angle here is that some horses don't like travelling and all this horse's wins and places since his first win have been at Brighton, Lingfield and Goodwood and he's trained in West Sussex so Plumpton is his home track as far as Jumps go.

The doubt is his stamina as he wins over 6 and 7F on the flat but if he's ever going to get 2 miles over sticks it'll be here at Plumpton

 

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3.10 Plumpton - Gores Island 1pt win @ 5/1  bet365

This one's record improves significantly when assessing class 4 (30% strike rate vs 11% for class 3 and upwards). Drops down to class 4 here and is on a winning mark of 120 having last won off 127 in 2015. Wide open with question marks over all of these (this one comes back after a break) but 5/1 seems fair to me.

 

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