Crouch Potato Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Yeah, Brajkovic, Van Den Broeck, Wiggins and Vinokourov so far, and Gesink definitely looks gone too. All before a serious mountain stage too - quite a shame. At least today's stage is a bit better having got 2.5 riders in the break. I did omit Hoogerland though, so I'll be hoping it's not he who wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 What's going on with this tour? That was just a ridiculous act by that tour vehicle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 What's going on with this tour? That was just a ridiculous act by that tour vehicle. that was just fcukin crazy :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Well that didn't really work out as plannd either :spankStill a return I suppose, but quite an inferior one to what the French riders would have offered. Rest day tomorrow, then two stages where I think Cav will probably return to winning ways. All eyes now turn to stage 12, where I hope the break might have a chance again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Rein Taaramaee to win White Jersey @ 7.00 Bet365 Taaramaee I feel is targetting a high overall place this tour which gives him an advantage over Uran. Coppel and Jeannesson are other outsiders but I feel the Estonian is ahead of these guys. Obviously the favourite is Gesink, but I have severe doubts he can finish this tour. He did finish in the main group today, which is more than what Hushovd was able to do, but yesterday he was 1 minute down on Hushovd. He was also dropped on the base of a category 3 climb earlier today and whilst he did do well to recover I simply can't believe that a mentally fragile rider like Gesink who wasn't physically capable of staying with the peleton on the base of a small climb is going to be able to stay ahead of a rider with the fitness, form and qualities of Rein Taaramae. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Have to say Im worried Ive got the green jersey wrong and Rojas was surprisingly nowhere to be seen today. I think Ive got to hope Gilbert struggles more as the Tour goes on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 That crash caused by the car was nothing short of being downright dangerous. Early reports are saying Hoogerland has 30 stitches and Flecha may not be able to carry on. The driver should be charged, will be interesting to see how that one pans out. Vino's crash was a bad one as well, he's out with a broken leg. A day of carnage really with other crash riders out with a broken wrist and a broken shoulder blade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I really regret not getting on Gilbert for green now, particularly after mentioning him very early on in this thread as a possible surprise. Ditto for Velits Top 10 and Martin Top German. Should, Coulda, Woulda :sad KOTM is very interesting. Yesterday might have been an early indicator for the low level climbers competing, but that isn't the case. Voeckler, in yellow, isn't going to be allowed in any breaks. None. Nada. And he's not beating the Heads of State on the big climbs. Why the hell anyone would back him at current odds simply astounds me. Sadly for Hoogerland he's probably far too beat up by that wreckless car. Sadly for me, Gadret looks out of steam. My favourite now is actually Frank Schleck. Alberto is really struggling with his knee and I don't think he is going to be able to do too much. He could prove me wrong, but he's really bent up. Back in 2009 we saw too that Andy will let Frank win stages as his only objective is yellow. It would not surprise me at all that Contador fades out and Frank takes polka and Andy yellow as the 1-2 finishers on the high mountain stages. This will be my last KOTM bet as this takes me up to about 35pts staked on this market, but between Frank, Sammy Sanchez and Uran I think I've got a strong chance. Obviously I'd fancy Andy for yellow now and Gesink will take white if he stays fit, which I'm very uncertain he will. Taaramae looking primed to vulture it off him if the Dutch isn't able to recover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 The picture in The Guardian today of Hoogerland showed how bad things were. Apparently some of the cuts were 7cm deep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 We have our first doping positive of the tour with Katusha rider Alexander Kolobnev send home for a positive test. Onto today's stage, I'm unsure if it will be a break or a sprint, and with Cav at 3.50 the bookies are in a similar dilemma. Europcar aren't the strongest team and might not be that well equipped to control the peleton, and Garmin are quite buggered from last week, so I'm not sure the sprint chances are as strong as they might otherwise have been. Regardless, I'm going to pick riders who will be in the break and hope it can survive, and this time, one of my picks actually win! Sylvain Chavanel @ 95 Betfair He looked really rough last week and I'm not sure he has it in him to make an effort today. What I do know though, is that if the rest day yesterday hasn't given him the recovery to attack, then he wont all tour. This is the stage where I think he is most likely to try and if he has recovered these odds are 4x what they'd usually be. Simon Gerrans @ 70 Betfair I still think Sky is looking for the break now on almost every day and I think Gerrans is a proven winner from such breaks. I'm looking for today to be the day that my faith in him is rewarded. Mikhail Ignatiev @ 100 Betfair Katusha have been quiet so far and I think today they will want to make the break and put the Kolobnev saga behind them. Ignatiev is a strong rider ideally suited to the finish and also quite aggressive, so at these odds must be included. Anthony Roux @ 60 Betfair My #1 pick for today. I like Roux as a breakaway rider and I think he's got a fairly good sprint finish to win from breaks. Has great courage and will surely attack today. Daniel Oss @ 220 Betfair If Oss makes the break today he will surely be the fastest sprinter of the group. Liquigas have been almost unsighted this tour, which is in some ways a good thing given all the crashes. Still, if today is a breakaway day, then Liquigas will obviously try to have a rider in it, and Oss is the only one worth backing, and well worth doing so at these odds given how well he sprints. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Thomas Vaitkus @ 101 NSW TAB Astana are obviously disappointed with Vino crashing out and Kreuziger clearly suffering. Their objectives can now only be stage wins and on today's profile I believe that Thomas Vaitkus is the most suited rider as his qualities will suit today's finish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leadbelly Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Yeah difficult to predict what's gonna happen today. Pescheux (on the official site) seems to favour a bunch sprint, but a couple of other sources seem to think the cat 4 climb 15 km from the finish might shed the true sprinters and that doesnt even take into account breakaways. Abandoning my H2H picks in favour of outside bets. Griepel (29.0 with Bet365) Looked pretty decent on stage 7 and might have gone a bit better with slightly better timing. Might get dropped though on the last climb depending on how quick they take it. Westra (67 with Bet365) Had a look on Betfair and he's available there for over 300 - maybe I should put some money back into my account there! Attempted a break on Sunday (which failed), but might have his chance today. Since Hoogerland is probably feeling a bit sore, hopefully he'll be the Vacansoleil choice to get in the break. Let's hope he doesn't overcook it on the downhill bits ! Knees (81 with Bet365) Like Crouchy I can see Sky trying to get in a break again (though they're probably hoping for a sprint finish with Eddy Boass). Knees seems to have recovered from whatever was afflicting him in the TTT, so we'll see what happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Missed the break again. I'm in awful form. Have taken one in play though Tyler Farrar @ 30 Betfair Earlier on Cav was 1.75 for the win and Farrar 5. Now Cav is 2.5 and Farrar is 30? That doesn't add up. Cavendish isn't superior to Farrar in terms of climbing, so I don't really see why Farrar can't be there if Cav can. No, he wasn't there when Cav won on stage 5, but that's because he was caught in an earlier crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Probably due to a seeming lack of interest in a mass sprint. I believe Hushovd said that he's "90% sure a break-away will go all the way". Also, the Tour has never ended in a mass sprint in this city before. I'd look into laying Cav, but I can't access Betfair from work.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 HTC are working for Cav but if he gets dropped then it will be for Goss so he could be an interesting play. Surprised no one has mentioned Rojas he should get over the climb and if he does and the other sprinters dont then he will be in a very strong position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Griepel (29.0 with Bet365) Looked pretty decent on stage 7 and might have gone a bit better with slightly better timing. Might get dropped though on the last climb depending on how quick they take it. Nice work :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Griepel got his timing spot on to be fair to him. Im guessing the climbs took the power out of Cavs legs so he couldnt quite finish it off. Id be surprised if he doesnt win tomorrow after that as he will be fuming at being beaten by him. Cav has gained loads of points over Gilbert though whose move turned out to be a stupid one. Did manage to nick a few quid on Rojas at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Cav was a victim of not having a train. He gets a fair bit lost without them to help him time his efforts which you could really see today. When Gilbert attacked I thought it was quite a stupid move because he'd be spent if he got caught. Personally over this tour though. The breaks aren't being allowed to get away like they have been in the past which completely kills my edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Cav was a victim of not having a train. He gets a fair bit lost without them to help him time his efforts which you could really see today. When Gilbert attacked I thought it was quite a stupid move because he'd be spent if he got caught. Personally over this tour though. The breaks aren't being allowed to get away like they have been in the past which completely kills my edge. Wonder how short Gilbert went on Betfair when he went. Im not sure Cav gets lost as he managed well enough without Renshaw last year and to be fair he was in a decent position but prehaps he just went a little bit to soon as he still had Griepel behind him who had enough in him to overtake. I think it was the climbs more than anything. Strange how the likes of Goss got dropped. Cav gained 35 points on Gilbert today. I thought today would be cruical and its certainly turned back in Cavs favour again for me. The breakaway was lucky to stay out on Sunday as well because if the big crash hadnt of happened in behind they would probably of been caught. I think its the shape of the tour meaning that different riders are wanting it to be a bunch finish. So on the climbs youve got Gilbert etc and on the flater finishes youve got Cav etc. Therefore different teams are chasing each day and no one wants to miss out a chance on gaining a stage win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Betfred had a special offer on todays stage where they gave you your money back if you selection finished second. I bet that will prove costly for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Wonder how short Gilbert went on Betfair when he went. Im not sure Cav gets lost as he managed well enough without Renshaw last year and to be fair he was in a decent position but prehaps he just went a little bit to soon as he still had Griepel behind him who had enough in him to overtake. I think it was the climbs more than anything. Strange how the likes of Goss got dropped. Cav gained 35 points on Gilbert today. I thought today would be cruical and its certainly turned back in Cavs favour again for me. The breakaway was lucky to stay out on Sunday as well because if the big crash hadnt of happened in behind they would probably of been caught. I think its the shape of the tour meaning that different riders are wanting it to be a bunch finish. So on the climbs youve got Gilbert etc and on the flater finishes youve got Cav etc. Therefore different teams are chasing each day and no one wants to miss out a chance on gaining a stage win. You're definitely right, the different finishes means different teams will work on different days, whereas when they are all flat HTC let a couple go. I think the new points system is having an affect too - Gilbert and his men are chasing a lot of breaks which at times I think are more with a green jersey in mind than stage wins. What's interesting though is that on the one stage where the break legitimately survived (as you say, the other day was a result of the crash) there has been a big chase on before the break got away. On the days when the first break of the day goes away it gets reeled in (bar Sunday) and the favourite contends (though not always wins). How soon a break is allowed to go is probably a good indicator of how the stage is likely to play out. As for Gilbert today, I know he went at least as low as 4's, but that was after he was on the attack. Generally speaking I find the reaction takes the odds even lower, so he might traded as short as 3's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Cav was a victim of not having a train. He gets a fair bit lost without them to help him time his efforts which you could really see today. When Gilbert attacked I thought it was quite a stupid move because he'd be spent if he got caught. Personally over this tour though. The breaks aren't being allowed to get away like they have been in the past which completely kills my edge. It was a brilliant move by Gilbert and Lotto, completely killed Cav's train. Garmin-Cervelo did the same as well with David Millar, no doubt in an attempt to tire out the HTC-Highroad team. I think we'll see more of this in the future as well, which is pretty interesting. The other sprint teams don't have the same train, and can afford to send out riders like that to isolate Cav - they have a better chance head-to-head than against his 9-man train of yellow and white. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leadbelly Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Certainly worked out well for Lotto, though I'm not entirely sure if the Gilbert break was preplanned - probably just serendipitous that it helped out Greipel. Good positioning from Greipel i thought. Quite a twisty snakish finish and the winner was bound to come from the first few riders going through them in single file and he was in the right place. Must be a sweet feeling for him to get one over on Cav. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Certainly worked out well for Lotto' date=' though I'm not entirely sure if the Gilbert break was preplanned - probably just serendipitous that it helped out Greipel.[/quote'] Nah, Gilbert said it was "what Greipel wanted" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Seems like Cav thinks the intermediate sprints might be denting his speed at the end. Anyone doubting that he wants to win green though should check out his twitter page. I was going to top up my bet on him for Green before today's stage but I left it alone and after being 2/5 Gilbert is now 11/10 and Cav is 11/8. Rojas can be backed at 7/1. Cav is 8/13 for tomorrows stage, Greipel 8/1, Farrar 10/1 and its 16s bar. Rojas could be overpriced at 33/1 again but in my view your better off backing him to finish in the first 3 as I cant see him winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Great shout with Griepel, Leadbelly :clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Griepel (29.0 with Bet365) Looked pretty decent on stage 7 and might have gone a bit better with slightly better timing. Might get dropped though on the last climb depending on how quick they take it. Yeah, even though there's probably some regional law about praising people over the Tamar, I have to say that was an excellent pick. I was surprised to see Gilbert hurting his chances of green (even though it helped Greipel), but it was another tremendous stage to watch. Lotto seriously need to get some better domestiques. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Rojas could be overpriced at 33/1 again but in my view your better off backing him to finish in the first 3 as I cant see him winning. There's been loads of amazing value on Betfair for Rojas (and occasionally others) to finish top 3 in stages, especially if you get in early / at the right moment. I think there are people who see that he's 33/1 to win and therefore assume he's 11/1 for a place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I took 4/1 for a place but I guess I should have looked at Betfair but they were under 33/1 for the win at the time. As for Lotto dont forget they only have 4 other riders left apart from Gilbert and Greipel so they dont have to many options. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Expecting a sprint so not really going to stake much today. Looking forward to tomorrow, though I do fear that because it's the first stage Leopard is going to chase the break down. Feillu Top 3 @ 6 Betfair He's got early onsets of Tendinitis which is a little concerning but his form this tour has been pretty good and he was still up there in 5th yesterday. Flatter stage today which should help him and with Farrar seemingly struggling and Petacchi nowhere I think his chances of a place are at least 20%. Anthony Roux @ 251 Bet365 Despite being an obvious sprinters stage I feel compelled to take Roux at these odds. He showed in the Vuelta last year that he has great determination when in breaks and I still like him to try and attack today at the very least. I actually think he's got about a 35% chance of being in the break today and you never quite know how things will turn out. Because it's Roux I'll pay to be on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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