Mattt123 Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Good day, but well Tour is still long :-) Bit fortunate tho. Also before last corner Cav was acting quite annoying towards Hushovd, HTC guys really love to use their head when in trouble. Still Cav had a good sprint, started 15m behind the others and managed to finish 5th.... Also don't really understand why organisers put a corner 300m before finish line, that's asking for trouble. But not complaining ;-) Tomorrow interesting arrival, I expect all top 5 guys there and I believe that Contador will attack, he cannot take much time, but would be good for his team 'moral' if he could take a couple of secs on some of the other top 5 riders. Still for tomorrow Gilbert should be unbeatable. Perfect arrival, steep in beginning, but last K only slightly uphill. Curious to see what odds will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattt123 Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Oh, and with top 5 guys I mean Contador, A. Schleck, VDB, Gesink, Sanchez etc ... not the current 'leaders'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Thanks Crouch Potato. That was quite a big score for me. I guess when betting on the green jersey, the commissars' history of decisions against Cavendish needs to be taken into account. This is a link showing today's incident, if anyone wants to see it: http://www.wat.tv/video/eurosport/cavendish-hushovd-piquet-3v73z_2f1o7_.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I'm in full agreeance. I expect Contador to attack but Gilbert to be too good. I will say, though, that will all the big riders attacking, it may make it a tiny bit harder for Gilbert to time his move. Still think he wins, but he's 1.67 tomorrow compared to the 2.50 or so he was on stage 1. Contador 15's with Paddy Power. I was cheekily hoping he'd be something like 50's, but alas not to be. Will have a poke around to see what Betfair is offering tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattt123 Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 For tomorrow could be interesting to check the results of the Fleche Wallonne (shorter but significantly steeper), I will also take the arrivals at Mende of last years Tour into account. (much harder though) Still riders who do well on those 2 'arrivees' will also be close here. Any other arrivals worth checking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I have a feeling that the 2008 stage that finished on Super Besse might be similarish, though with a slightly steeper gradient at the finish (that was a cat 2 climb) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Seems like Cav and Hushovd have been disqualified from today's intermediate sprint. At least that's what Cav has just tweeted A disgraceful decision if that is the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattt123 Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I have a feeling that the 2008 stage that finished on Super Besse might be similarish' date=' though with a slightly steeper gradient at the finish (that was a cat 2 climb)[/quote'] Tks! Indeed steeper but in terms of time difference probably a good indication as gap between 1th and 29th is around 20 secs. Super Besse 2008: Ricco 1 and Valverde 2, Cadell 3rd fair to say that some things in cycling have improved :-) I'm quite hesitant to back Evans for tomorrow as he might ride very defensive and try to stop other guys from attacking (I expect both Millar and Hushovd to lose time), not sure if he'll have the punch for a sprint? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luck7 Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I'm in full agreeance. I expect Contador to attack but Gilbert to be too good. I will say, though, that will all the big riders attacking, it may make it a tiny bit harder for Gilbert to time his move. Still think he wins, but he's 1.67 tomorrow compared to the 2.50 or so he was on stage 1. Contador 15's with Paddy Power. I was cheekily hoping he'd be something like 50's, but alas not to be. Will have a poke around to see what Betfair is offering tomorrow. Gilbert no value Crouch ? I saw how he easy he won the 1st stage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Gilbert no value Crouch ? I saw how he easy he won the 1st stage This is probably a question that Matt or Addpea or Coconuts can better answer. With the exception of Brajkovic Top 10 and LLS to win a stage, everything I've tipped has been over 20-1, as these types of bets are the one I try to specialize in for cycling. Obviously they don't always work :lol But yeah, Gilbert did make it look easy, and he will want to win, and he probably should, but will he win over 60% of the time? In cycling I don't really much care for backing people across a single stage to beat 197 other riders so consistently, so I don't really look to identify if such bets are value. Short answer, I'm the wrong person to ask! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 One more KOTM bet. Still really like Gadret, but the price on this one I couldn't resist. Sammy Sanchez to win KOTM @ 41 Centrebet A subject touched earlier and one I'm acting on purely because of price. Sanchez is now 2 and a half minutes behind Andy Schleck and whilst he wont be allowed to go in earlier breaks, if he attacked the lead group up the final climb I don't see Andy following. Given Andy's lead I suspect he will strictly be watching Contador, so I see some minor benefits in the current time gaps. Furthermore, because Contador is so far behind, I can see him attacking Andy a lot. If, for instance, Sanchez attacks first, and Contador bridges to him alone, then we have seen that in such situations Contador will let the other ride take the win and thus the main KOTM points. Purely a value bet but I'm seeing some favourable situationals potentially helping this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 They said yesterday on Eurosport that yesterdays stage was the first Gilbert hadnt won in about 70 odd days racing so on that basis he his a fantastic bet to win todays stage. Ive got to say though that on a finish like this I wouldnt be prepared to back someone that short as you can see more people going for the win and it might catch him out. For me at this stage Im sitting out but at the same time if you forced me into a bet I would stick it on Gilbert to win. Told you he was over priced Crouch. I guess Im going to have to back him myself now as Id be annoyed if he were to win and I hadnt backed him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Ok, so expecting that Gilbert will win, but as I said before, not really my style to back him. I've gone with these roughies for micro stakes: Alexander Kolobnev @ 160 Betfair Kolobnev has good history on these types of courses with many strong results. Katusha don't really have a standout leader and I expect he will have full license to attack today. Peter Velits @ 270 Betfair Velits came top 5 on a much harder climb on stage 4 of the Vuelta last year and I saw in that ride a fairly strong amount of power. The climb isn't as tough and indeed has a sort of flat 200m at the end, which is actually what makes me think he has a chance. He packs quite a decent sprint and has the ability to try something on this type of profile. Rein Taaramae @ 310 Betfair The Estonian is a very aggressive rider and the gradients at the end will be no problem for him. From watching him, I think he has the kind of power that's required to win on this type of stage, and at these odds I'll pay to see. Edvald Boasson Hagen @ 190 Betfair Not too sure he's over his shingles but I think this is a stage he can potentially win. Final 200m or so is pretty flat, so if it comes to a sprint of guys who can summit the small climb he obviously has a big advantage. Unsure if he has the power right now to match Gilbert but he proved last month how strong he can be up climbs. Again, expecting Gilbert to win, so don't let me put you off backing him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Told you he was over priced Crouch. I guess Im going to have to back him myself now as Id be annoyed if he were to win and I hadnt backed him. At 25-1 I wasn't sure the 1min 30 was enough to back him, but now that his team basically came dead last in the time trial and his quote is at 41, the value becomes too strong to ignore IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 At 25-1 I wasn't sure the 1min 30 was enough to back him' date=' but now that his team basically came dead last in the time trial and his quote is at 41, the value becomes too strong to ignore IMO.[/quote'] He was 33s at the start of the Tour which was the price I was talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchi Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Very interesting stage. It appears very similar, as mentioned earlier, to the Ardennes Classics. The worst Gilbert has finished in the last two years of these is 6th (La Fleche Wallone 2010), finishing 4th in the 2010 LBL and winning the other 4. On top of wininng the first stage (albeit with a handful of riders stuck down the road) his short-price appears justified. The finishes of La Fleche Wallone and LBL are similar to todays and he has gassed most people that have come before him. I have a feeling Sammy Sanchez has the bit between his teeth and is frustrated at losing time in the first two stages. His record in the Ardennes Classics is relatively good with a 'top 3' and a 'top 10' from 3 rides in the last 2 years. He has also said previously that he will target this stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I'm not knowledgable enough to assess Gilbert's chances very well. What I will say is that it's different from stage 1 - significantly steeper in some places, then with a flat few hundred metres at the end. I'm guessing the likes of Hushovd and Rojas will either be dropped by the general pace on the climb, or left by Gilbert before it gets flat. Maybe an elite climber could get away from Gilbert, but I'm not sure its long enough of a climb for that. Gilbert is clearly the strongest, but his team support didn't look impressive on stage 1. I don't know. Only a proper expert (who also likes to assess odds on shots) could say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattt123 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Difficult to beat against Gilbetr today, but no value on him from my point of view. Its a fact that his team isn't the strongest and if there's a breakaway I'm not sure if many teams will help them, as they know they'll be riding for second spot. 45sec should be enough for the brave escapees, last 40K are quite up and down so difficult to control my picks gesink 1.65 vs taeremaa taeremaa 1.70 vs ruijgh a. schleck 2.00! vs vdb f. schleck 2.20 vs vdb. hagen 2.00 vs hushovd vino 1.85 vs velits sanchez 3.85 top 3 fulsang 1.60 vs vanendert uran 1.65 vs ll sanchez. Brajko 2.20 vs Mollema Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Turns out it was long and testing enough for the proper climbers to beat Gilbert then.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 What an exciting finish that was. Alberto makes 8 seconds up on Andy. His delay on the first stage is going to really make these sorts of finishes very interesting to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I wonder how much it hurt Gilbert's chances today that he was a marked man who had to chase down any attacks on his own. He'd be even more lethal if he had a strong team mate to support him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 What an effort by Hushovd! :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattt123 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Gilbert had a strong team mate as VDB was there, weirdly enough he didn't allow him to escape in the last K, when VDB took 5-6m and he was the one bridging the gap, Gilbert simply didn't look strong enough it seems. Quite a blow it seems as he refused to talk to the press afterwards. I also had a fun bet on Uran 150/1, so glad he didn't finish 2nd. Not sure what to make of Andy losing time, last year the same thing happened in Mende, so I wouldn't read thaaaat much into it. Still ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 What an effort by Hushovd! :loon I'd have preferred that the other Norwegian, Edvald Boasson Hagen was the countryman you were talking about. Bad Norwegians :p I wonder how much it hurt Gilbert's chances today that he was a marked man who had to chase down any attacks on his own. He'd be even more lethal if he had a strong team mate to support him. I personally feel Gilbert was disrupted by Contador attacking. He was the one who marked the move first and I think this really took away the energy he needed to attacked. Very annoyed that the commentators called Uran Boasson Hagen too. When they called him I was already counting my money, then was perplexed as to why he didn't just sprint past. I guess now i know why :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Very annoyed that the commentators called Uran Boasson Hagen too. When they called him I was already counting my money, then was perplexed as to why he didn't just sprint past. I guess now i know why :lol Our (Norwegian) commentators made the same mistake for quite a while, heh. Besides, I'm not sure he would've been able to sprint, none of them seemed up for it.. Looked like it was all in slow motion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 It seems Boasson Hagen was helping Wiggins down the road. To be fair to the commentators Id imagine everyone saw a Sky rider and thought that it was Boasson Hagen. These sorts of climbs dont really seem to suit Schleck so Im not really worried that he lost 8 seconds. Interestingly though Frank didnt wait to help him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 It seems Boasson Hagen was helping Wiggins down the road. To be fair to the commentators Id imagine everyone saw a Sky rider and thought that it was Boasson Hagen. These sorts of climbs dont really seem to suit Schleck so Im not really worried that he lost 8 seconds. Interestingly though Frank didnt wait to help him. This is so true. Which is why I'm so amazed that Andy is basically out to 3's and Contador into 2's. Obviously Evans is becoming a factor in the market now but Andy still leads Contador by a minute and a half. As for Frank not waiting, perhaps they are keeping him there to make as much time as possible. If Contador burns himself out trying to get back time then it's Andy v Evans with Frank Schleck on the same time. At which point he then becomes a contender for the overall. I know it sounds a bit far fetched perhaps, but Contador did ride the Giro, and now he basically has to attack whenever possible. It's perhaps not out of the realms of possibility that he plonks and brings brother Schleck into the Yellow Jersey race? Either way, I'm pretty sure I just talked myself into putting a couple of dollars on Frank :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Well Ive got Frank covered anyway as he was too big in the market without the big 2. I cant beleive Andy is now a bigger price than he was at the start that just seems crazy to me. As for Evans Im really not sure what he will be like when it gets to the big mountains and he is making a lot of efforts in this first week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Contador is even money with most bookies with Andy around 13/8. Seems to big a reaction in Contador's price to me. Evans is now best price of 7/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Looks like there could be some crosswinds of up to 40km/h tomorrow. I can only hope that's true, because there's rarely anything as fascinating as 2-3 peletons racing to either stay away or catch back up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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