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Crouch Potato

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Everything posted by Crouch Potato

  1. No worries. Thanks for the reply! Good luck for the rest of the season
  2. Having some issues finding some data and figured my last best hope was @Ashtee Do you know where I can get AFL odds (specifically line) data for seasons 2009 and earlier? Footywire has it from 2010 onwards and Odds portal has it for bits of 2009 but was wondering if anyone knew of a more comprehensive set of data?
  3. Not sure if a break survives tomorrow. I tend to think it won't but by the same token there's no great reason for anyone to chase. From the break I like Rolland (36 Betfair), Riblon (101 - various) and Meintjes (120 Betfair). If a break doesn't succeed then it's worth noting the first part of the climb is quite harder than the latter part. That may mean we won't see big time differences and one of the lesser GC riders could go on the attack looking for the win, Thibaut Pinot (34 Betfair) looks a standout and I wouldn't rule out a move from Warren Barguil (60 Betfair)
  4. Quite like the 7/1 about on Martin myself. Valverde's LFW record speaks for itself but not sold on his form right now. Martin will have been building for this and has marked it off as a big objective, whereas I'm not sure if Valverde has prepared to be better in the final week of mountains. If he's on top form he'll win, it's just a question of whether he is.
  5. At above 20s Malori looks a touch of value. He's normally best over these short flat time trials and feels he's been overlooked a touch.
  6. I would expect Quintana to lose more time on the cobbles than the other GC riders, providing Froome doesn't crash. He's the best climber in the race though, so would probably look to back him for yellow after stage 4. Green looks interesting. Depends on Sagan's freedom I guess but Degenkolb looks the value. Frankly I'd have Matthews as great value were he to try but Orica are too focused on stage wins this year. Meintjes is my KoM Pick. MTN clearly target this jersey in races and Meintjes is the only quality climber on their roster. Very impressive in the Dauphine and if he goes for it then
  7. Totally agree on Bjerregaard. I've backed him Top 20 and always First Round Leader as he's off in the 2nd earliest group on Thursday. Worth noting the wind isn't expected to be that bad, compared to say Royal County Down, where Bjerregaard equalled the course record in calmer conditions.
  8. Phil Mickelson @ 23 Centrebet Mickelson's form is trending nicely with a 2nd at the Masters followed up by a 4th at Quail Hollow and a 3rd at TPC Southwind. The course will play long and Mickelson's distance off the tee is a critical advantage that you have to have if you are to win this week. Once more, this is going to require a lot of imagination around the greens and that's another area where lefty excels. He's put in the recon at Chambers Bay which Mike Davis has intimated will be important and being a links course it is links form that takes priority over US Open tracks. On that front Mi
  9. Re: US Open - Chambers Bay > June 18th - 21st Dustin Johnson just withdrew from the St Jude Classic with "illness". Considering he was +3 through 9 holes, I'm not sure how genuine it is, but it's probably worth keeping an eye on.
  10. Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 No it's not. Sweden won with a strong entry but Russia's high finish shows to me your politics angle was way too overplayed in your head. Well done gazzy!
  11. Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Jury voting should massively favour Russia as the song is of top quality for Eurovision. They are also now in the second half of the draw so they are well placed in that regard. Italy are too but I'd rather them to run late than Sweden, who are now more probable than not to be in the first half of the draw. Will need to see how Sweden fare but Russia are very strongly placed, their positive reception was critical and the theme of building bridges for this event may work in their favour. Norway entry is of high quality and has a chance of being prominent,
  12. Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 They aren't. But without the political situation they are odds on favourite IMO. They still finished 7th last year and their entry wasn't anywhere near as strong either. Their diaspora strength is still going to be strong. Might not win but for me the value is with them.
  13. Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Opera/Popera has never done well in Eurovision. Sognu firmed a lot prior to 2011 and it finished well outside the top 10. Italy this year is a bit of a stronger song but you're a brave man to back Popera to win Eurovision. Sweden feels like an acceptable favourite but lacks the strength of Loreen or Emily de Forrest. The visuals are definitely key though. What I will say is that if these songs were for Eurovision 2010, then Russia would be an unbackable favourite. Polina has excellent vocals and the song is very well suited to Eurovision, though susceptib
  14. Re: Volvo China Open > April 23rd - 26th Scott Hend @ 44 Betfair Although a new location for this event, the Tomson Shanghai Pudong Golf Club has actually been used on Tour before in the BMW Asian Open. One man who has a tidy record in that event is Hend, who was 3rd in 2008 and 9th the year before. He has been in contention a few times of late, notably always in Asia, so I think that he can have another good showing this week. One thing I will say though is that accuracy off the tee is reportedly much more important around here, so if there was one mark against the Aussie, it's that. M
  15. Re: Zurich Classic of New Orleans > April 23rd - 26th ?GL All Justin Thomas @ 50 Betfair For me there's no hotter rookie on tour than Thomas. Maiden winners are common here and for mine Thomas is the most obvious candidate to continue this trend, just as Dufner and Horschel were when they won. He has already notched 4 Top 10's this season and an 11th last time out shows the form is still there. He hits it a long way which can also be quite useful here and for me is overpriced. Lucas Glover @ 151 E/W 1/4 1-5 365 Glover for mine is returning to form and it's only a matter of time before
  16. Re: Shenzhen International > April 16th - 19th Well done Kev :ok Bit unlucky on Hend too!
  17. Re: ***** US Masters Competition - £150 in CASH Prizes ***** Thanks Aidy. I have appropriately wasted my 10 quid by putting on DJ to win the US Open!
  18. Re: Shenzhen International > April 16th - 19th Cheers fellas. Kiradech definitely should have it in the bag and Uihlein is fortunate to still be in the frame. It's a bit of a contrast as Uihlein is better this week on the back 9 where Kiradech has played it poorly, so it'll be interesting to see who can change that when it matters. GL Kev. Hopefully the winner comes from the final group at least!
  19. Re: Shenzhen International > April 16th - 19th The commentators did say it was an injury, from memory it was a wrist one. Bad luck mate, thought me, you and Kev could have fought each other for this one.
  20. Re: Shenzhen International > April 16th - 19th Alvaro Quiros @ 70 Betfair Quiros is one I've had my eye on for a bit and as Kev mentioned he was 3rd on this course last year. Despite being a relatively short course, a look at last year's leaderboard suggests that this course can be overpowered and if the Spaniard can continue to improve as I feel he has been since returning from injury then I think he'll give us a run. Peter Uihlein @ 60 Betfair Has shown flashes of form this year without ever putting it together for four days. He's a promising player and with Koepka going so well at th
  21. Re: ***** US Masters Competition - £150 in CASH Prizes ***** Thanks for running this Aidy! Well done BigDog! Hopefully this 3rd place gets me closer to a win where it counts! Aidy, I'll PM you as soon as I figure out what my Skrill email is!
  22. Re: US Masters - Augusta National > April 9th - 12th Jason Day @ 15 Betfair Has a fantastic record around here and most importantly is fit. Having won a WGC title last year and the tough test of Torrey Pines this year I feel he's ready to take that next step and Augusta suits his game perfectly. Keegan Bradley @ 90 Betfair It's been too long since he last won so to think he will break that streak at the Masters is a tough ask but he's been showing some glimpses. He was 5th last week at the Houston Open which could have been a lot better but for some poorly timed bogeys on the weekend wh
  23. Re: ***** US Masters Competition - £150 in CASH Prizes ***** 1) Rory McIlroy 9/2 - His focus for the year will be this event and he is too good to ignore. Also considering the game format and how he's likely to be up there even if he doesn't win and often leads at the end of 18/36/54. 2) Dustin Johnson 16/1 - Has said previously that he believes Augusta is his best chance for a major and is in great form. He also has a fantastic record in the Northern Trust Open, an event I believe can be a key indicator to a Masters performance. 3) Jordan Speith 10/1 - Also in terrific form and showed las
  24. Re: Houston Open > April 2nd - 5th Shawn Stefani @ 51 Been following this guy for a while now and feel this week is one where you want him on side. It's pretty well know that he was able to secure his card with a 5th here on his final tournament with a medical exemption. He grew up playing this course and clearly enjoys it, which is why he actually skipped a few tournaments to make sure one of his exemptions was this event. Has been knocking on the door for a while now and given he isn't qualified for the masters I think he will be primed for this event -- something I can't say about the
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