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Crouch Potato

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Everything posted by Crouch Potato

  1. No worries. Thanks for the reply! Good luck for the rest of the season
  2. Having some issues finding some data and figured my last best hope was @Ashtee Do you know where I can get AFL odds (specifically line) data for seasons 2009 and earlier? Footywire has it from 2010 onwards and Odds portal has it for bits of 2009 but was wondering if anyone knew of a more comprehensive set of data?
  3. Not sure if a break survives tomorrow. I tend to think it won't but by the same token there's no great reason for anyone to chase. From the break I like Rolland (36 Betfair), Riblon (101 - various) and Meintjes (120 Betfair). If a break doesn't succeed then it's worth noting the first part of the climb is quite harder than the latter part. That may mean we won't see big time differences and one of the lesser GC riders could go on the attack looking for the win, Thibaut Pinot (34 Betfair) looks a standout and I wouldn't rule out a move from Warren Barguil (60 Betfair)
  4. Quite like the 7/1 about on Martin myself. Valverde's LFW record speaks for itself but not sold on his form right now. Martin will have been building for this and has marked it off as a big objective, whereas I'm not sure if Valverde has prepared to be better in the final week of mountains. If he's on top form he'll win, it's just a question of whether he is.
  5. At above 20s Malori looks a touch of value. He's normally best over these short flat time trials and feels he's been overlooked a touch.
  6. I would expect Quintana to lose more time on the cobbles than the other GC riders, providing Froome doesn't crash. He's the best climber in the race though, so would probably look to back him for yellow after stage 4. Green looks interesting. Depends on Sagan's freedom I guess but Degenkolb looks the value. Frankly I'd have Matthews as great value were he to try but Orica are too focused on stage wins this year. Meintjes is my KoM Pick. MTN clearly target this jersey in races and Meintjes is the only quality climber on their roster. Very impressive in the Dauphine and if he goes for it then he'll be hard to beat. I have him as a better climber than Arredondo and I don't really think Kruiswijk has it in him. Rolland fails to convince and whilst Quintana might fall into it, it'd require all the HC climbs to be won by the favourites and for him to be the winner on both of them. He'll definitely be high up in the rankings if he finishes the tour though. Would expect the number of riders in Yellow to go over 5.5 too. With an ITT, Mur, Cobbles and TTT before a mountains stage I think we'll see some swings. Not to mention the likelihood of crosswinds on stage 2 as well.
  7. Totally agree on Bjerregaard. I've backed him Top 20 and always First Round Leader as he's off in the 2nd earliest group on Thursday. Worth noting the wind isn't expected to be that bad, compared to say Royal County Down, where Bjerregaard equalled the course record in calmer conditions.
  8. Phil Mickelson @ 23 Centrebet Mickelson's form is trending nicely with a 2nd at the Masters followed up by a 4th at Quail Hollow and a 3rd at TPC Southwind. The course will play long and Mickelson's distance off the tee is a critical advantage that you have to have if you are to win this week. Once more, this is going to require a lot of imagination around the greens and that's another area where lefty excels. He's put in the recon at Chambers Bay which Mike Davis has intimated will be important and being a links course it is links form that takes priority over US Open tracks. On that front Mickelson also looks favourable, with his Open win a couple of years back coming a week after he won the Scottish Open. Branden Grace @ 151 Various The Scottish open lefty won was in a playoff and Grace was the loser on that occasion. In addition to this 2nd, he's also won the Alfred Dunhill Links which is played over 3 links courses including St Andrews. He's won twice this season so the form too is there and he hits a low, accurate stinging drive off the tee which I think will be advantageous this week.
  9. Re: US Open - Chambers Bay > June 18th - 21st Dustin Johnson just withdrew from the St Jude Classic with "illness". Considering he was +3 through 9 holes, I'm not sure how genuine it is, but it's probably worth keeping an eye on.
  10. Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 No it's not. Sweden won with a strong entry but Russia's high finish shows to me your politics angle was way too overplayed in your head. Well done gazzy!
  11. Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Jury voting should massively favour Russia as the song is of top quality for Eurovision. They are also now in the second half of the draw so they are well placed in that regard. Italy are too but I'd rather them to run late than Sweden, who are now more probable than not to be in the first half of the draw. Will need to see how Sweden fare but Russia are very strongly placed, their positive reception was critical and the theme of building bridges for this event may work in their favour. Norway entry is of high quality and has a chance of being prominent, but not sure yet the best way to bet on them as there is a risk of it being overlooked.
  12. Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 They aren't. But without the political situation they are odds on favourite IMO. They still finished 7th last year and their entry wasn't anywhere near as strong either. Their diaspora strength is still going to be strong. Might not win but for me the value is with them.
  13. Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Opera/Popera has never done well in Eurovision. Sognu firmed a lot prior to 2011 and it finished well outside the top 10. Italy this year is a bit of a stronger song but you're a brave man to back Popera to win Eurovision. Sweden feels like an acceptable favourite but lacks the strength of Loreen or Emily de Forrest. The visuals are definitely key though. What I will say is that if these songs were for Eurovision 2010, then Russia would be an unbackable favourite. Polina has excellent vocals and the song is very well suited to Eurovision, though susceptible to being viewed as a bit cynical. Jury vote could help though. Regardless, value for me is clearly on Russia, probably each way is best as it's hard to see this finishing outside the Top 4, but the reception of the song could go either way in terms of winning. Still not entirely sure how it will, but I still see it as a more likely winner than Italy.
  14. Re: Volvo China Open > April 23rd - 26th Scott Hend @ 44 Betfair Although a new location for this event, the Tomson Shanghai Pudong Golf Club has actually been used on Tour before in the BMW Asian Open. One man who has a tidy record in that event is Hend, who was 3rd in 2008 and 9th the year before. He has been in contention a few times of late, notably always in Asia, so I think that he can have another good showing this week. One thing I will say though is that accuracy off the tee is reportedly much more important around here, so if there was one mark against the Aussie, it's that. Matteo Manaserro @ 111 Bet365 One man who thrives on accuracy over distance is Manaserro and he showed some glimpses of a return to form last week. He remains an incredibly talented golfer and with accuracy providing greater rewards this week it could well help the Italian get back into the winner's circle. Marco Crespi @ 201 Various No man in the field this week has a better driving accuracy stat than Crespi. He's hitting just shy of 80% of fairways this year and a share of 4th last week is very encouraging. He's a winner on tour so is capable of getting it done and frankly I find these odds confusing. Not that I'll complain, as a man who comes here in good form and is very straight off the tee is a fantastic proposition at these odds.
  15. Re: Zurich Classic of New Orleans > April 23rd - 26th ?GL All Justin Thomas @ 50 Betfair For me there's no hotter rookie on tour than Thomas. Maiden winners are common here and for mine Thomas is the most obvious candidate to continue this trend, just as Dufner and Horschel were when they won. He has already notched 4 Top 10's this season and an 11th last time out shows the form is still there. He hits it a long way which can also be quite useful here and for me is overpriced. Lucas Glover @ 151 E/W 1/4 1-5 365 Glover for mine is returning to form and it's only a matter of time before it translates into a result. He ranks in the Top 5 in both GIR and Proximity to the hole, which inevitably means his putting is woeful, where he is ranked 207th. Still, a hot week with the putter can come from nowhere and Glover has 4 Top 10's around this course, which suggests to me he has a fairly decent read of the greens around here. Scott Stallings @ 301 E/W 1/4 1-5 365 There's no logical reason to back Stallings here. He's missed his last 4 cuts this season and all 4 cuts when he's played here. Still, my gut tells me Stallings is big value here, and I never ignore my gut when it comes to Stallings.
  16. Re: Shenzhen International > April 16th - 19th Well done Kev :ok Bit unlucky on Hend too!
  17. Re: ***** US Masters Competition - £150 in CASH Prizes ***** Thanks Aidy. I have appropriately wasted my 10 quid by putting on DJ to win the US Open!
  18. Re: Shenzhen International > April 16th - 19th Cheers fellas. Kiradech definitely should have it in the bag and Uihlein is fortunate to still be in the frame. It's a bit of a contrast as Uihlein is better this week on the back 9 where Kiradech has played it poorly, so it'll be interesting to see who can change that when it matters. GL Kev. Hopefully the winner comes from the final group at least!
  19. Re: Shenzhen International > April 16th - 19th The commentators did say it was an injury, from memory it was a wrist one. Bad luck mate, thought me, you and Kev could have fought each other for this one.
  20. Re: Shenzhen International > April 16th - 19th Alvaro Quiros @ 70 Betfair Quiros is one I've had my eye on for a bit and as Kev mentioned he was 3rd on this course last year. Despite being a relatively short course, a look at last year's leaderboard suggests that this course can be overpowered and if the Spaniard can continue to improve as I feel he has been since returning from injury then I think he'll give us a run. Peter Uihlein @ 60 Betfair Has shown flashes of form this year without ever putting it together for four days. He's a promising player and with Koepka going so well at the moment I'm sure it's only a matter of time before his good friend starts to get the runs on the board. Thomas Pieters @ 70 Betfair Another player who could potentially just overpower this course. Another of the young brigade who I feel has bigger things ahead and in a field that has some quality at the top but lacking in depth, this could be the type of event where he surprises with a maiden win.
  21. Re: ***** US Masters Competition - £150 in CASH Prizes ***** Thanks for running this Aidy! Well done BigDog! Hopefully this 3rd place gets me closer to a win where it counts! Aidy, I'll PM you as soon as I figure out what my Skrill email is!
  22. Re: US Masters - Augusta National > April 9th - 12th Jason Day @ 15 Betfair Has a fantastic record around here and most importantly is fit. Having won a WGC title last year and the tough test of Torrey Pines this year I feel he's ready to take that next step and Augusta suits his game perfectly. Keegan Bradley @ 90 Betfair It's been too long since he last won so to think he will break that streak at the Masters is a tough ask but he's been showing some glimpses. He was 5th last week at the Houston Open which could have been a lot better but for some poorly timed bogeys on the weekend which included twice hitting in the hazard on the Par 5s. He mentioned that he's been hitting a draw and he's quite happy with it which obviously bodes well for Augusta. His only other result of note this year is a 4th at the Northern Trust. For me there are exceptionally strong links between that event and and the Masters. Adam Scott, Weir, Watson and Mickelson are among the guys who have won both events, while lower profile Northern Trust winners such as Rory Sabbatini and Len Mattiace both have 2nd placed finishes at the Masters (neither of these have a Top 10 in any other Major). Martin Kaymer @ 120 Betfair Probably goes against logic given that he prefers to hit a fade but he's a class player and with two major wins and a Players Championship on his CV. Obviously his record here is poor, but he's improving with each visit having made the last 3 cuts here. On him purely from a value perspective. Bill Haas @ 140 Betfair Has a strong Northern Trust Open record and has returned well from injury having won Humana this year. Was the first round leader here last year and has never missed a cut in 5 attempts. Has yet to record a Top 10 but feel he is one who could surprise. 1st Round Leader - JB Holmes @ 44 Betfair Holmes has twice been 1st round leader this year and has come close to achieving this in a couple of other events this year. The playoff and win last week may be a negative here but his form is red hot and I feel with his ability to score birdies in bunches he's the value pick in this market.
  23. Re: ***** US Masters Competition - £150 in CASH Prizes ***** 1) Rory McIlroy 9/2 - His focus for the year will be this event and he is too good to ignore. Also considering the game format and how he's likely to be up there even if he doesn't win and often leads at the end of 18/36/54. 2) Dustin Johnson 16/1 - Has said previously that he believes Augusta is his best chance for a major and is in great form. He also has a fantastic record in the Northern Trust Open, an event I believe can be a key indicator to a Masters performance. 3) Jordan Speith 10/1 - Also in terrific form and showed last year he can play at Augusta. 4) Martin Kaymer 66/1 - Has shown he can win the big events and despite favouring a draw he's made the cut the last 3 times here. 5) Bill Haas 80/1 - Fantastic Northern Trust record and has been playing well of late.
  24. Re: Houston Open > April 2nd - 5th Shawn Stefani @ 51 Been following this guy for a while now and feel this week is one where you want him on side. It's pretty well know that he was able to secure his card with a 5th here on his final tournament with a medical exemption. He grew up playing this course and clearly enjoys it, which is why he actually skipped a few tournaments to make sure one of his exemptions was this event. Has been knocking on the door for a while now and given he isn't qualified for the masters I think he will be primed for this event -- something I can't say about the favourites this week.
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