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9coconuts

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Everything posted by 9coconuts

  1. Geraint Thomas' performances in Romandie and Suisse would be a concern for me. Rasch was saying he struggled with the cold in Switzerland now that he's so skinny. That tells us he has prepped for the high mountains, but it can take time for the body to adapt to weight change.
  2. I like Adam Yates @50/1 (various) today. He showed well on the long climb up Pierre-Saint-Martin, and today's stage with the long key climb seems like the one he'd target from a break. All depends how hard the peloton ride of course, but Adam seems like the one who's been keeping his powder dry and hence has appealing odds.
  3. Likely to be won by the early break, and it finishes in a short, sharp climb. By this stage of the Tour, you can have a really clear idea of riders' form. I like Dan Martin @18/1 (Coral / Sportingbet), Vuillermoz @33/1 (Coral), & especially Simon Yates @110 (Betfair). Purito's also worth considering, but I find the 7/1 less appealing. Also, Boylesports' offer to pay 5 places each-way is interesting. I'm not very good at picking the breaks, but Fedrigo @125/1 e/w makes sense to me - even without the win, it's almost 16/1 to finish top 5.
  4. Fascinating stage for punters given the wide open market. Today's big mountains look too far from the finish for GC wars. However, I think Sky will ride a solid tempo that will reduce the peloton [could be 30-ish riders???], and make it quite difficult for breakaways. It could be a day for an early break, but only if the group is quite large and they're allowed to gain a big lead quickly. I can see the race for the stage win hotting up near the top of the Tourmalet, especially on the descent. For that scenario, I want riders who are good enough to stay with the tempo on the Tourmalet, great at descending, good enough to win up the Category 3 final climb, and preferably not a GC threat. Nibali (@60, Betfair) is out of form by his standards, but even an out-of-form Nibali fits the above description. He's 7 minutes back and has proven his weakness, so I don't think Sky will be too concerned with him. Today's profile looks ideal for him. I also really like Sammy Sanchez @130 (Betfair), and I took a bit of Mick Rogers @190 (Betfair).
  5. Hmm... actually, maybe Boylesports' 16/1 e/w on Froome is the better bet, given that it pays 4 places. For some reason, 4th feels a lot more likely than 3rd to me with some of these GC guys.
  6. This finish proved tough enough to involve the big boys in 2011, so I'm taking some prices that there'll be GC guys in the frame again. I like Froome to win @23 (Betfair), & to place @5 (Betfair). He doesn't have the explosion of some other riders, but his team are great at putting him in position, and he's clearly in great condition. I notice Uran finished 3rd on the Mur-de-Bretagne in 2011. Maybe he likes this climb, so I'm taking Uran @80/1 e/w (Boylesports or PaddyPower - both pay 4 places). I think Van Garderen's form also gives him a realistic shot at finishing in the top four: Van Garderen @80/1 e/w (PaddyPower - pays 4 places).
  7. A chance of crosswinds today. The key hill is 900m long at 7%, and is followed by 500m of flat (well, the slightest of inclines) before the finish line. I'm not totally convinced Sagan is in the form to blow everyone away on the hill. He or Degenkolb might find themselves forced to chase down and lead out other riders on the final flat, so I see value in their opponents. I took Van Avermaet @16 (Betfair) and Gallopin @20 (Betfair) - I like their form in the Tour so far.
  8. Shame Froome got edged out the previous day, or we'd have had back-to-back 66/1 & 50/1 [each-way, in my case] winners. Anyway, it's all profit. :ok Likely a sprinter's day today. I can't spot value. We'll see what the weather brings near the coast.
  9. Thanks Antogz - absolutely perfect analysis by you. I did have a bet on Tony. Made a tidy score. :) Time to punish the bookies with their own money now. :D
  10. If your analysis is right Antogz, the time bonuses could make Tony Martin an interesting each-way option if you fancy Froome to stay in the front group.
  11. lol - Lemond's giving the same view as I said in the pre-race show. He mentioned the time bonuses as well - I forgot about those (10s for 1st, 6s for 2nd, 4s for 3rd). That makes Froome @50/1 (Ladbrokes) & Contador @66/1 (Betfred) good value each-way bets as well.
  12. Being the best in the Classics doesn't necessarily mean you'll be the best on a Classic stage in the Tour - today, you have the race against the world's greatest riders while they are in peak condition. I think it's going to be difficult to break away from the peloton late in the stage. If I were more convinced of his condition, I'd have a big bet on Nibali to win @46, and to place @12 (both w/Betfair), but I still think it's worth a standard stake. Also, I don't know how much energy Team Sky would want him using on this finish, but Geraint Thomas @150 (Betfair) seems worth a look at the price.
  13. I hear there's a chance of showers today, so laying off any Martin bets until his start time makes sense.
  14. For stage 1, I kinda like Sagan e/w@80/1 (Boylesports) given the distance of the course and his power to surge out of some tight-ish turns. I don't know if he's capable of getting away from someone like Martin on stage 3 to take yellow, but I hope that possibility is in his mind. If he's up for it, he could place. I wanted just a price for a place, but the pure place odds are the same betting each-way.
  15. Not keen on betting against Sagan for green or Quintana for polka-dot... bit of a boring outset to the tour really. But time trials are one place where I am happy to back favourites, so let me jump on the bandwagon with Martin (evens - general) to win stage 1.
  16. Ah, all the faces I wanted to see are on the forum :) Since rule changes that made higher mountains more important, only those in the elite climbing group have been able to win the KOM (Sammy Sanchez, Voeckler, Quintana, Majka), with the yellow jersey often finishing a close second. I do feel more of the non-finish climbs are unimportant to the GC race this year, so perhaps a non-elite could compete given favourable peloton/breakaway politics. But also, 3 of the 7 HCs are finishes, so a Quintana winning accidentally is very possible. Mustn't forget that four year precedent though. Finishes: 3x HC - 50, 40, 32, 28, 24, 20 16, 12, 8, 4. 1x 1st Cat - 20, 16, 12, 8, 4, 2. 1x 2nd Cat - 10, 6, 4, 2. Non-finishes: 4x HC - 25, 20, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2. 5x 1st Cat - 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1. 11x 2nd Cat - 5, 3, 2, 1. The only Cat 3s worth bothering with are the cluster at the start of stage 18. Anyway, there are essentially no points on offer before the Pyrenees, so it might be better to hold fire until at least stage 10. I'm just gonna wait and see who loses time, and probably consider how strong riders look on stages 3, 8 and even 10. Remember, a lot of easier points are available very, very late this year.
  17. I'll summarize the potential key stages for General Classification betting. This website has all the stage profiles handily listed on 1 page: http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/racin...te-2015-140386 I've probably missed some potential crosswinds etc., but hopefully it's a useful overview. Let me know if any of the facts are wrong. Here's hoping for another masterclass this year from Crouch Potato and the other experts on this forum. :) July 4th (Saturday) - 13.8km Time Trial Completely flat. Tour winners have tended to show very well in prologues, and this is not the shortest. Time gaps will be modest, but contenders will be going all out, so it might provide some information. July 6th (Monday) - Cat 3 finish Only a classics stage, but late hilly sections can produce fast, intense racing in the first week of the tour. I can see things getting pretty serious. Keep an eye out for any big names struggling on the final Mur de Hey. July 7th (Tuesday) - Cobbles Always an injury risk, so might be worth postponing GC bets until after. Expect some GC contenders to lose significant time. July 11th (Saturday) - Cat 3 finish When the fourth stage of the 2011 tour also finished on Mur-de-Bretagne, only nine elite riders finished with the same time; Cadel Evans took the stage on his way to winning the tour. There won't be big time gaps, but it might show who's weak. July 12th (Sunday) - 28km Team Time Trial Always important. Unusual to have a TTT so far in to the tour - could be a real problem for teams who lose riders in the opening week. July 14th (Tuesday) - HC finish Critical for punters, as the first mountaintop finish often tells you who's going to win. Comes after a rest day, and there are no other mountains to soften up the field before La Pierre-Saint-Martin, but I expect a devastating tempo as they near the climb. July 15th (Wednesday) - Mountains, Cat 3 finish Interesting stage profile. The Col d'Aspin and its descent are immediately followed by the Tourmalet, which they crest 40km from the finish. Then, a huge descent leading straight to the modest final climb (Cote de Cauterets). I wonder whether the GC contenders will really go to war or not. July 16th (Thursday) - Mountains, Cat 1 finish A third consecutive hard day in the Pyrenees, but with the mountains slightly spread out. There's an easy 35km prior to the final climb. Still, the Plateau de Beille will sort out the field. July 18th (Saturday) - Medium mountains, Cat 2 finish Finishes with the short, steep Cote de la Croix Neuve, following directly on from a Category 4 climb and descent. There's also 1km of flat at the end. Gaps will be modest, but expect an intense finish. July 20th (Monday) - Medium mountains, Descent finish Doesn't really look like a GC-type stage, but with the rest day coming up, someone could attack up and down the Category 2 Col de Manse. Descending rarely decides tours, but a downhill attack is doable on this stage. July 22nd, (Wednesday) - Mountains, Cat 2 finish The day's final alp, Pra Loup, comes straight after the climb then steep descent of the Category 1 Col d'Allos. Pra Loup is only a 6km climb, so a descent attack is again a possibility. July 23rd (Thursday) - Mountains, Flat finish Up and down the Col du Glandon, then a fairly flat 10km. Next, a short, sharp kick up Lacets de Montvernier, followed by an easy 10km to the finish. Probably just a quiet stage for GC, but tough enough to mention in case someone spots a rival having a bad day. July 24th (Friday) - Mountains, Cat 1 finish Consecutive mountains and descents, then a long, grinding climb up La Toussuire. July 25th (Saturday) - Mountains, HC finish Will we get a spectacular finish? A short stage culminates with the legendary climb through the wild crowds of Alpe d'Huez.
  18. I guess this year's GC is all about the big four: Froome (2/1), Quintana (5/2), Contador (5/1) & Nibali (5/1). Contador's trying to complete the rare & difficult Giro-Tour double; Nibali's preparations seem to have been hampered by injury; Froome looked good in the Dauphine; the course should favour Quintana's climbing expertise. However, the bet that interests me is Rafal Majka @9/2 (Paddy Power) to finish in the top 10. He'll be riding for Contador, not the polka-dot jersey, and maybe he's targeting the Vuelta. However, if he's in the elite climbing groups, he can rise up the classification. Modest form so far this season, but he seems to endure well over the really long battles. I can see him giving up time in the first week though, plus there's always the danger of early crashes, so I'm wondering whether to hold off a bit... The 25/1 to finish in the top 3 might be worth considering too.
  19. Okay. Maybe someone should close the "Tour de France 2015" thread then, or it might get confusing. Plus delete out our little discussion here ideally. Anyway, here are my re-posts:
  20. Ah, I just saw this. I posted on the other Tour thread Addpea. Which one are we using? Can we merge them or something?
  21. I guess this year's GC is all about the big four: Froome (2/1), Quintana (5/2), Contador (5/1) & Nibali (5/1). Contador's trying to complete the rare & difficult Giro-Tour double; Nibali's preparations seem to have been hampered by injury; Froome looked good in the Dauphine; the course should favour Quintana's climbing expertise. However, the bet that interests me is Rafal Majka @9/2 (Paddy Power) to finish in the top 10. He'll be riding for Contador, not the polka-dot jersey, and maybe he's targeting the Vuelta. However, if he's in the elite climbing groups, he can rise up the classification. Modest form so far this season, but he seems to endure well over the really long battles. I can see him giving up time in the first week though, plus there's always the danger of early crashes, so I'm wondering whether to hold off a bit... The 25/1 to finish in the top 3 might be worth considering too.
  22. I'll summarize the potential key stages for General Classification betting. This website has all the stage profiles handily listed on 1 page: http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/racin...te-2015-140386 I've probably missed some potential crosswinds etc., but hopefully it's a useful overview. Let me know if any of the facts are wrong. Here's hoping for another masterclass this year from Crouch Potato and the other experts on this forum. :) July 4th (Saturday) - 13.8km Time Trial Completely flat. Tour winners have tended to show very well in prologues, and this is not the shortest. Time gaps will be modest, but contenders will be going all out, so it might provide some information. July 6th (Monday) - Cat 3 finish Only a classics stage, but late hilly sections can produce fast, intense racing in the first week of the tour. I can see things getting pretty serious. Keep an eye out for any big names struggling on the final Mur de Hey. July 7th (Tuesday) - Cobbles Always an injury risk, so might be worth postponing GC bets until after. Expect some GC contenders to lose significant time. July 11th (Saturday) - Cat 3 finish When the fourth stage of the 2011 tour also finished on Mur-de-Bretagne, only nine elite riders finished with the same time; Cadel Evans took the stage on his way to winning the tour. There won't be big time gaps, but it might show who's weak. July 12th (Sunday) - 28km Team Time Trial Always important. Unusual to have a TTT so far in to the tour - could be a real problem for teams who lose riders in the opening week. July 14th (Tuesday) - HC finish Critical for punters, as the first mountaintop finish often tells you who's going to win. Comes after a rest day, and there are no other mountains to soften up the field before La Pierre-Saint-Martin, but I expect a devastating tempo as they near the climb. July 15th (Wednesday) - Mountains, Cat 3 finish Interesting stage profile. The Col d'Aspin and its descent are immediately followed by the Tourmalet, which they crest 40km from the finish. Then, a huge descent leading straight to the modest final climb (Cote de Cauterets). I wonder whether the GC contenders will really go to war or not. July 16th (Thursday) - Mountains, Cat 1 finish A third consecutive hard day in the Pyrenees, but with the mountains slightly spread out. There's an easy 35km prior to the final climb. Still, the Plateau de Beille will sort out the field. July 18th (Saturday) - Medium mountains, Cat 2 finish Finishes with the short, steep Cote de la Croix Neuve, following directly on from a Category 4 climb and descent. There's also 1km of flat at the end. Gaps will be modest, but expect an intense finish. July 20th (Monday) - Medium mountains, Descent finish Doesn't really look like a GC-type stage, but with the rest day coming up, someone could attack up and down the Category 2 Col de Manse. Descending rarely decides tours, but a downhill attack is doable on this stage. July 22nd, (Wednesday) - Mountains, Cat 2 finish The day's final alp, Pra Loup, comes straight after the climb then steep descent of the Category 1 Col d'Allos. Pra Loup is only a 6km climb, so a descent attack is again a possibility. July 23rd (Thursday) - Mountains, Flat finish Up and down the Col du Glandon, then a fairly flat 10km. Next, a short, sharp kick up Lacets de Montvernier, followed by an easy 10km to the finish. Probably just a quiet stage for GC, but tough enough to mention in case someone spots a rival having a bad day. July 24th (Friday) - Mountains, Cat 1 finish Consecutive mountains and descents, then a long, grinding climb up La Toussuire. July 25th (Saturday) - Mountains, HC finish Will we get a spectacular finish? A short stage culminates with the legendary climb through the wild crowds of Alpe d'Huez.
  23. Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th ...oh, wait - how did I miss Nieve's name in the break? D'oh!
  24. Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th In-play: Trofimov @19 (Paddypower). Looks like Astana will probably chase this down, but if they diecide to ease off, Trofimov is a likely winner.
  25. Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th The name I'd add is Geraint Thomas @170 (Betfair). Although he rides a strong time trial, Sky's best chance of actually winning a stage is via a break today. You can imagine a breakaway composition in which he'd be as good a climber as any.
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