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About 9coconuts

  • Birthday 01/26/1982
  1. Geraint Thomas' performances in Romandie and Suisse would be a concern for me. Rasch was saying he struggled with the cold in Switzerland now that he's so skinny. That tells us he has prepped for the high mountains, but it can take time for the body to adapt to weight change.
  2. I like Adam Yates @50/1 (various) today. He showed well on the long climb up Pierre-Saint-Martin, and today's stage with the long key climb seems like the one he'd target from a break. All depends how hard the peloton ride of course, but Adam seems like the one who's been keeping his powder dry and hence has appealing odds.
  3. Likely to be won by the early break, and it finishes in a short, sharp climb. By this stage of the Tour, you can have a really clear idea of riders' form. I like Dan Martin @18/1 (Coral / Sportingbet), Vuillermoz @33/1 (Coral), & especially Simon Yates @110 (Betfair). Purito's also worth considering, but I find the 7/1 less appealing. Also, Boylesports' offer to pay 5 places each-way is interesting. I'm not very good at picking the breaks, but Fedrigo @125/1 e/w makes sense to me - even without the win, it's almost 16/1 to finish top 5.
  4. Fascinating stage for punters given the wide open market. Today's big mountains look too far from the finish for GC wars. However, I think Sky will ride a solid tempo that will reduce the peloton [could be 30-ish riders???], and make it quite difficult for breakaways. It could be a day for an early break, but only if the group is quite large and they're allowed to gain a big lead quickly. I can see the race for the stage win hotting up near the top of the Tourmalet, especially on the descent. For that scenario, I want riders who are good enough to stay with the tempo on the Tourmalet, great at descending, good enough to win up the Category 3 final climb, and preferably not a GC threat. Nibali (@60, Betfair) is out of form by his standards, but even an out-of-form Nibali fits the above description. He's 7 minutes back and has proven his weakness, so I don't think Sky will be too concerned with him. Today's profile looks ideal for him. I also really like Sammy Sanchez @130 (Betfair), and I took a bit of Mick Rogers @190 (Betfair).
  5. Hmm... actually, maybe Boylesports' 16/1 e/w on Froome is the better bet, given that it pays 4 places. For some reason, 4th feels a lot more likely than 3rd to me with some of these GC guys.
  6. This finish proved tough enough to involve the big boys in 2011, so I'm taking some prices that there'll be GC guys in the frame again. I like Froome to win @23 (Betfair), & to place @5 (Betfair). He doesn't have the explosion of some other riders, but his team are great at putting him in position, and he's clearly in great condition. I notice Uran finished 3rd on the Mur-de-Bretagne in 2011. Maybe he likes this climb, so I'm taking Uran @80/1 e/w (Boylesports or PaddyPower - both pay 4 places). I think Van Garderen's form also gives him a realistic shot at finishing in the top four: Van Garderen @80/1 e/w (PaddyPower - pays 4 places).
  7. A chance of crosswinds today. The key hill is 900m long at 7%, and is followed by 500m of flat (well, the slightest of inclines) before the finish line. I'm not totally convinced Sagan is in the form to blow everyone away on the hill. He or Degenkolb might find themselves forced to chase down and lead out other riders on the final flat, so I see value in their opponents. I took Van Avermaet @16 (Betfair) and Gallopin @20 (Betfair) - I like their form in the Tour so far.
  8. Shame Froome got edged out the previous day, or we'd have had back-to-back 66/1 & 50/1 [each-way, in my case] winners. Anyway, it's all profit. :ok Likely a sprinter's day today. I can't spot value. We'll see what the weather brings near the coast.
  9. Thanks Antogz - absolutely perfect analysis by you. I did have a bet on Tony. Made a tidy score. :) Time to punish the bookies with their own money now. :D
  10. If your analysis is right Antogz, the time bonuses could make Tony Martin an interesting each-way option if you fancy Froome to stay in the front group.
  11. lol - Lemond's giving the same view as I said in the pre-race show. He mentioned the time bonuses as well - I forgot about those (10s for 1st, 6s for 2nd, 4s for 3rd). That makes Froome @50/1 (Ladbrokes) & Contador @66/1 (Betfred) good value each-way bets as well.
  12. Being the best in the Classics doesn't necessarily mean you'll be the best on a Classic stage in the Tour - today, you have the race against the world's greatest riders while they are in peak condition. I think it's going to be difficult to break away from the peloton late in the stage. If I were more convinced of his condition, I'd have a big bet on Nibali to win @46, and to place @12 (both w/Betfair), but I still think it's worth a standard stake. Also, I don't know how much energy Team Sky would want him using on this finish, but Geraint Thomas @150 (Betfair) seems worth a look at the price.
  13. I hear there's a chance of showers today, so laying off any Martin bets until his start time makes sense.
  14. For stage 1, I kinda like Sagan e/w@80/1 (Boylesports) given the distance of the course and his power to surge out of some tight-ish turns. I don't know if he's capable of getting away from someone like Martin on stage 3 to take yellow, but I hope that possibility is in his mind. If he's up for it, he could place. I wanted just a price for a place, but the pure place odds are the same betting each-way.
  15. Not keen on betting against Sagan for green or Quintana for polka-dot... bit of a boring outset to the tour really. But time trials are one place where I am happy to back favourites, so let me jump on the bandwagon with Martin (evens - general) to win stage 1.
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