Cycling 2011

[Mattt123]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 For Norwegians its all about quality not quantity ;-) God knows what would happen if all your biathletes, skiers or cross country guys start using a bike. Truly amazing win of Hushovd. He showed skills, brains and lots of power. Flat day, but won some money with Pineau and Gusev in breakaway. Not complaining. Curious to see what odds will be for green, Rojas and Gilbert will get point in intermediate, Cav surely not.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Great win by Hushovd but extremely pissed to get 2nd again. Made worse by the fact that Roy and Vanendart are clearly going for KOTM. Roy is probably spent from all his efforts and can't see him doing it, but Vanendart can if he gets into a break. I'd say my entire tour comes down to whether Vanendart gets in the break tomorrow and if the break can get back for the GC riders to contest.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Would love the GC favourites to contest this, which is a sure fire thing to ensure the break succeeds. Teejay Van Garderen @ 250 Betfair The American looked good in his earlier break and I think he might try today. The GC favourites are expected to contest the win but so often these stages disappoint so happy to have a go at these odds. Haimar Zubeldia @ 250 Betfair Radioshack have had a disastrous tour and surely now a stage win is all they can salvage. Leipheimer has said he might look to attack in the alps so based on that I've backed the spaniard, who placed top 20 on the last major climb and would have a super chance to win from a decisive break, should one form. Ryder Hesjedal @ 101 Centrebet The Canadian is well out if GC now and I expect Garmin will look to be in the break and continue their good tour. Hesjedal was still top 20 up Luiz-Arden so should have a great chance if he can get into a winning break.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Thor! What a man. Surprised Eddy Boass couldn't stay with him on the climb. Unlucky with the Moncoutie pick Crouchy. Strange tactics/ride from Mollema - couldn't see the point myself of him being sent out ahead of the peleton when he had zero chance of catching the escapees. It was almost as if he was being punished for some misdemeanour by his DS. Vanendert (18 with Bet365) Can't see him being allowed to get in the break for the day - 13 minutes down is too close. However I can see him being showed a bit of leeway on the last climb (or if he descends well, just before that). Chavanel (67 with Bet365) Was desperate to get in the break yesterday, but no-one seemed very keen to let him get away. Could be a different story today with all the lumps and bumps meaning a long day in the saddle. Martinez (81 with Bet365) Quiet tour so far for Egoi. Euskatel will almost definitely try and get someone in the breakaway. Either for the stage win or to help Sanchez later in the stage.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Where the hell did this Vanendert come from? And can we send him back where he came from? :lol That'll be my tour over, he's home for KOTM.

[Mattt123]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Vanendert once 101 in Vuelta, that's it, twice crashed out in Vuelta and giro. Always considered to be a talent but missed 2010 due to injuries, still this almost sounds too good to be true, wouldn't trust it if he was Spanish, which is probably not very fair. I was very lucky with the Vandenbroucke crash as I have a big Quick Step vs Lotto for GC, what a mug bet that was :-) Very boring race, and showed again that Contador doesn't have the form, while the Schlecks are basically pussies, Andy attacking 400m before finish line, very brave. LBL should have tought me not to trust the Schleck sisters. Very open race, but face it this years winner will not be remembered for ever and ever, unless Voeckler wins it ofcourse

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Yep, absolutely boring stage from a GC perspective. Voeckler now into 16s after opening at 1000's, though I don't know how you ever pick that. Incredibly boring run up that mountain. Had Contador been on form he would have won by an hour based on how incredibly frightened they rode that stage. Can only hope those French labs are working on Vanendert's urine tests right now. Because I give him no more than six months before he's detected. His performance is the most suspicious thing I've seen since Bernhard Kohl.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

Can only hope those French labs are working on Vanendert's urine tests right now. Because I give him no more than six months before he's detected. His performance is the most suspicious thing I've seen since Bernhard Kohl.

Well since he gave me a winner I'm prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt. :loon There doesn't look to be much of interest in tomorrow's stage. Almost certainly going to be a sprint finish and Cavendish has a good record of winning sprints the day after mountain stages - so I find it difficult to convince myself that he's gonna be too tired or that any other sprinter has much of a chance.

[Skittle]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

Yep, absolutely boring stage from a GC perspective. Voeckler now into 16s after opening at 1000's, though I don't know how you ever pick that. Incredibly boring run up that mountain. Had Contador been on form he would have won by an hour based on how incredibly frightened they rode that stage. Can only hope those French labs are working on Vanendert's urine tests right now. Because I give him no more than six months before he's detected. His performance is the most suspicious thing I've seen since Bernhard Kohl.

Was thinking the same about Vanendert and also have a suspicion about Voeckler.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I have some suspicions about Voeckler too but he's at least shown some ability in the past and has been on form this year, particularly in Paris Nice. Venendert, though, as Matt said, has really done this out of nowhere. I mean, first career win is on the queen stage of the Tour de France? Anyway, taking 3 riders for microstakes just in case a crash or crosswinds sees a break get up. Daniel Oss @ 301 Bet365 Will need a fair bit of luck to win it but there is some more rain and crosswinds predicted tonight. He's been looking for the break in flatter stages and he'd likely win from any break. Would only take a crash in the main field to force a truce and allow the break to go on like Luis Leon Sanchez was able to do. Also a chance he makes a limited selection in the crosswinds and gets some luck. Anthony Roux @ 251 Bet365 FDJ keep looking for the breaks and I once again fancy Roux to be there guy. Has a decent sprint and if he can get in the break the havoc of the tour could always appear again and allow the break to succeed against all odds. Gerald Ciolek @ 300 Betfair Very unlikely to win but with some potential crosswinds I'm looking for him to make the split and Cavendish not to. If that happens then it will be a chaotic sprint, which is just the type the German could surprise in.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Can't really add a lot to what Crouchy has already said about today. Strong winds are meant to be coming from the NW, so that will mean a tail/cross wind with speeds varying from 50-70 km/h. It will increase the chance of splits and crashes (if the sprinters teams and GC teams are all jockeying for position at the front). Was looking at Rojas ew last night, but he's dropped from 29 down to 21 now - so gonna give that a miss. Vaitkus (201 with Bet365) Astana don't really have a sprinter in their team (I think) so should look to get someone in the break. Vaitkus has had a quiet tour with just a couple of top 20 finishes. Roux (251 with Bet365) Like Crouchy said, FDJ like to get in the breaks and today might be the day for Roux. Quiet tour, but his second place in the French National Championship recently (1st Chavanel, 3rd Voeckler) shows that he's a strong rider and in form. Engoulvent (301 with Bet365) Decent sprinter, but knows that he doesn't really have a chance if it comes down to a bunch sprint. Was in a break earlier in the tour (can't remember which stage) and looked strong. Re: Voeckler and Vanendert. Does anyone know what time they took on that last climb? I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't that quick in comparison to previous ascents. Rolland and Schleck seemed to be doing most of the pace setting and it didn't seem that high a tempo (aside from a few kicks) with plenty of looking around at each other. If Peraud, Rolland and Uran can stick around as well it tends to suggest that the performances of the 2 Vs weren't that extraordinary.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

Re: Voeckler and Vanendert. Does anyone know what time they took on that last climb?

Decided to check myself. 45:04 according to a certain website, which is a minute slower than Contador in 2007. Quicker than Armstrong's times in 2002 and 2004 though. Guess it's difficult to compare since you'd need to compare the route up to that point and how hard they've been riding that day (and days before I guess).

[9coconuts]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Congrats on another long shot winner Leadbelly. You must be on a huge profit for the tour. Wish I'd been paying more attention - in hindsight Vanendert was eminently backable for stage and KOM given that he stayed with Sanchez before. You could even make a case for backing him for KOM now at around 7/5. Maybe the Schlecks' attacks didn't work yesterday because there wasn't a consistently high pace. It was all stop-start. I wonder if their best tactic would be to sacrifice Frank by having him set a testing tempo all the way up the climb so Andy can attack decisively near the summit.

[Mattt123]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Vanendert finished Plateau de Beille in 46:05. Main group in 46:53. Nothing impressive or 'surreal'. As Pantani (1998) did fastest climb ever in 43:30 Contador and Rasmussen (2007) in 44:17, so this means that Contador was more then 2min 30 secs slower then 4 years ago. Massive difference. Probably due to less dope, and not being in a great shape, in general. Armstrong and Basso(2004) finished in 45: 40. But well quite a robotic way of analysing as we're not taking the weather and toughness of the race into account. Still it gives certain indications.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Prices are finally up for tomorrow. Looks like another day for the breakaway and that descent (does anyone know how technical it is?) just at the end makes certain names spring to mind. Unfortunately most of these names have sprung to the mind of the bookies as well. Might come back to these "favourites" but a couple of bigger odds picks for the time being. Arroyo (51 with Bet365) Looked way off colour at the start of the tour (was he in a crash? my memory is obviously going), but starting to come back into shape (only 6:47 down on Stage 14). Very good descender. Izagirre (51 with Bet365) Was in the break on Stage 14 and descended very well off the penultimate climb. Seemed to open up a sizeable gap in very short time. Does anybody think Voeckler might extend his advantage tomorrow? Wouldn't surprise me if he tries to follow Gilbert when he attacks on the descent.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 One final pick Chavanel (16 with Bet365) Not a super duper price (gone out slightly since the odds initially came out), but he's gonna be desperate to get a stage win. He's the French Champion but all the eyes are on Voeckler. This stage and possibly the one after are his last chance realistically for a win. It's not that steep the profile - just a long drag which will suit him more and he knows how to descend. Was having a look at Hushovd and more so at LL Sanchez, but I'm not sure Hushovd would be allowed into the break again and the price for Luis Leon has come in from about 19 to 13 - so just gonna stick with the 3 picks.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 First of all, I'd like to say my R key on the keyboard is a bit broken, so if there is a typo chances are I've missed the R.

Does anybody think Voeckler might extend his advantage tomorrow? Wouldn't surprise me if he tries to follow Gilbert when he attacks on the descent.

I really do. And Gilbert if there are points available. Also, Sammy Sanchez is easily the best descender of the GC men, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him get time as well. Speaking of Sammy, this is just about the most promising news I've had all tour. Albeit just talk at this stage:

But because Euskaltel-Euskadi conceded 1:22 at the team time trial, finishing last of all teams, Sanchez said he might give the polka dot jersey a try instead of bidding for a finish on the podium. The Spaniard sits in second position on the mountains classification, two points behind Jelle Vandenert of Omega Pharma-Lotto. "I won't try to get into a breakaway, because they won't let me go. I won't have the same freedom as I did in the Pyrenees," he said. "But in the summit finishes I will try to be in front of the Belgian if I can, to score more points. The way the mountains classification has been changed, it benefits the riders who are in front at the summit finishes. It's definitely an objective that is within reach and that is motivating."

That's from http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/sanchez-considers-voeckler-his-biggest-favourite-for-tour-victory Speaking of rest day quotes, one has stuck out. Nicholas Roche @ 67 Sportingbet

"I was hoping to arrive as close as possible to the top ten. I’m getting further away now. I’d like to try and ride aggressive again' date=' even though you have to be a bit lucky as well as being strong to grab the right breakaway in the Tour and really want it."There are only two days left really for breakaways, so hopefully I can try and get in one of them and get up the front and have a bit of pleasure of riding in the break at the front again."

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/roche-looking-for-aggressive-final-week He has a fairly good sprint finish so if he can make the break and descend well I think he's a great chance. George Hincapie @ 501 William Hill Someone from BMC will be looking for the break and though I don't like George will be the man there's always a chance. The reason for taking this is the odds are exceptional and if he were to get in the break he'd have a super chance. Simon Gerrans @ 51 Sportsbet Yet to be in a break so surely he will look to be in one the next 2 days. Of all the Sky riders he is probably the best suited to the profile and given his winning qualities a must back on a day the break is likely to succeed. Ryder Hesjedal @ 201 William Hill Over priced. Well down on time now and wouldn't surprise me to see him try for the break. At double digits I ignore him but not at these odds. Yuri Trofimov @ 126 Sportsbet Trofimov is a strong descender and I believe the best on the Katusha team. He will also manage the final climb well and has already been in one break over the last week. There's an okay chance he will look for it again today and a good chance that he can win from it. Not a lot of Betfair liquidity yet so might add a couple of more names later.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

Prices are finally up for tomorrow. Looks like another day for the breakaway and that descent (does anyone know how technical it is?) just at the end makes certain names spring to mind.

It's not an overly technical descent. But the stage on Wednesday is much more technical.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Considered taking these two put didn't really love them. After seeing odds though, can't resist. Tony Martin @ 101 Centrebet Not a great descender which is why I wasn't all that keen on him but it's not an overly difficult descent and the German has a lot of power which he could use to actually win from a break sprint/finish run in. On the basis of his supreme TT skills and his odds I'll bite. David Arroyo @ 151 Centrebet Is indeed a very good descender. Because he's not got a great sprint and the descent isn't too hard I wasn't overly keen on taking him at 50's, but he has looked better in recent stages and again, at 151 I'll have a small go.

[Mattt123]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I think that tomorrow's stage is going to be tougher then the market thinks, and I only expect a peloton of 30 riders to cross the final climb, therefore I took a big bet on Voeckler 2.55 vs Meersman H2H... Obviously there's a chance that a breakaway makes it, but this is the perfect moment for guys like Cunego, Uran, Samuel Sanchez, Gilbert and Rojas Gil (I doubt it tho) to win (another) stage, so not sure if they'll give this one away. And with the Schleck sisters being such poor descenders it could be worth attacking in the dangerous downhill.... should be something for Voeckler, S. Sanchez, Contador? On such technical downhill, lots of turns, 45 secs could be won.... but maybe I'm expecting too much after 2 weeks of passive racing, nevertheless I've taken Contador, Sanchez, Gilbert and Cunego to finish top 3 here. I also find it a bit weird that the profile of the final 40 k of stage 16 is almost identical to this stage. Not really seeing the point of that. Could be interesting for punters tho, especially if tomorrow would become quite exciting. Do you guys have any news on Fuglsang, he's been injured in last couple of days, and his loss is quite a big blow, as he is/was the bridging gap between the Gerdemanns, Montfors, Voigts and Schlecks. I think his absence has been undervalued by the press as he's the perfect man to set the pace with 5-10 K to go. Due to his absence the race has become more tactical/boring

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

I also find it a bit weird that the profile of the final 40 k of stage 16 is almost identical to this stage. Not really seeing the point of that. Could be interesting for punters tho, especially if tomorrow would become quite exciting.

This stage is stage 16. Are you looking at the stage 17 pofile because I believe that descent is much harder. No news on Fugslang sorry.

[Mattt123]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Tomorrow's descent probably more dangerous, but this is also a difficult downhill, and it's probably going to rain....

[BelgianPunter]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Velits voor Cunego @ 2.16 (6/10) Great value imo. Velits is a better descender than Cunego. I expect Velits today. Gilbert top 3 @ 2.9 (6/10) Marc Sergeant, Herman Frison and Marc Wauters said this morning that they going for the victory with Gilbert. + It's a mountain of category 2, which is perfect for Gilbert. BOL :hope And sorry for my bad English :unsure

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Your english wasn't too bad. Other than voor it all made complete sense to me. And Jens, bloody hell, you Norwegians really are hell bent on world domination. Hope your boy Thor works for the Canadian though :hope

[Jenspm]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Haha, how 'bout them Norwegians, ehh?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 **** me. Seriously. **** me. God damn I hate Hushovd.

[Jenspm]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Unlucky Crouchy, great call and bad luck yet again :sad

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Unlucky there Crouchy. Despite not winning Hesjedal and Martin were very good picks (and at very good prices). Roche as well looked as if he was going to get in the break. The less said about my picks the better. Contador looks back on form and the Schlecks are back to their worst - don't think I can see either Frank or Andy winning from here. But who knows?

[BelgianPunter]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

Velits voor Cunego @ 2.16 (6/10) WON Great value imo. Velits is a better descender than Cunego. I expect Velits today. Gilbert top 3 @ 2.9 (6/10) LOST Marc Sergeant, Herman Frison and Marc Wauters said this morning that they going for the victory with Gilbert. + It's a mountain of category 2, which is perfect for Gilbert. BOL :hope And sorry for my bad English :unsure

:clap Small profit. Gilbert finished 15th. He was good today but advance of the leading group was to big today.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

Haha' date=' how 'bout them Norwegians, ehh?[/quote'] Both are supremely good riders and have had great tours. And on a personal note, I don't mind Eddie. He has a lot of promise and I can't wait to see what kind of rider he turns out to be. Not at all a fan of Hushovd after today though. No doubt that the fact he cost me a tour profit magnifies this, but I'd be nowhere near as annoyed if Boasson Hagen had of won, and I had nothing on him either. As Nicki Tepstra said the other day, the way the parcous of this year's tour is set, there is virtually nothing in it for you unless you are a top tier climber or sprinter/classics rider (and I suppose there's 1 stage for TT'ers too). Outside of Rui Costa and Jelle Vanendert every stage has been won by either a top 5 sprinter (Cavendish x4, Farrar, Greipel), top 10 classics rider/uphill sprinter (Hushovd x2, Gilbert, Boasson Hagen), climber (Sanchez, Evans) or Top 15 GC candidate (Sanchez). Today was basically one of only 2 remaining chances for the other 120 or so riders in the field to have a chance at the tour, and instead we get Thor in a break, following the wheel of Boasson Hagen for 15km before out sprinting him. I wont begrudge him his first win, that was an epic ride and achievement, but somebody who has a palmares like Hushovd, who already has worn the yellow jersey for a week and won a stage this year to go with 8 other tour stages -- for him to win in the break today by following Boasson Hagen just really annoyed me. If guys like Hushovd start putting themselves in every break, and the break only gets 4 chances a tour, then what's the point for the other 120 or so riders in the race who cant sprint, climb or TT? I wont deny having money on Hesjedal made Thor's win today particularly annoying, but even if I didn't have money on anyone in that break, the fact that an elite rider who has already had a super successful tour took the win on a stage meant for the non-elite riders really irks me. Might as well just have a field of 40 and have them only race the last 20km of a stage. Outside of Rui Costa and Vanendert the results would all have been the same. Anyway, rant over. Don't really expect anyone to agree with me. Casar best priced 23 (34 for today's stage). Roche is now best priced 34s (67's today stage). 34s for Gerrans too (51 today's stage). The value of tomorrow's stage looks non existant from where I'm sitting.