Cycling 2011

[9coconuts]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 What a fantastic tour. I've been watching since 1991, and I think that was the best one I've seen. Chapeau to the organisers for picking the stages and designing the KOM and points competitions so well.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 San Sebastian tomorrow. Clasica San Sebastian 2011 - Race Winner - G Van Avermaet vs N N Roche Quick H2H pick. Going for Roche at 2.4 with Bet365. Van Avermaet is just off the back of winning the Tour de Wallonie and his team are talking up his chances here for a win too, but I'm not so sure. If he manages to stay with the leading group he'd have a great chance in a sprint, but I feel the course is just a bit too lumpy (and if some of the other teams turn up the heat to try and get rid of the favourite Gilbert - I can't see Greg sticking around). Roche had a poor Tour, but was showing better form towards the end when it was a lot steeper than it will be tomorrow. Will probably have a few outright winner bets tomorrow. Hopefully some of the prices will go out a bit overnight.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Roche price for the H2H now out to 2.6 Just two picks. Both Velits (23 with Bet365) and De Gendt (29 with Bet365) finished the Tour on a high and hopefully will be able to continue that form here. Been a good breakthrough year for De Gendt with some nice stage rides in Paris-Nice, TdS and the Tour - though as I'm writing this I'm wondering might it be a bit too long for him. Hopefully the course will suit both riders as they are strong, decent climbers and not the worst in a sprint (though not the best either).

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Phil Gil is unstoppable! Might have been interesting to see what happened if Vanendert hadn't been there to help, but he'd prolly still would have won. No prices up yet for the Tour of Poland on Bet365 which tends to suggest they aren't gonna have a market for it - which is a shame.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Yeah, Gilbert looked far too strong for all of them. Vanendert might have been important in chasing back Devolder, but if that group made it to the finish there was no beating Gilbert. Would be interested to know what happened to Velits though, I thought this type of race, with a flat finish and a very select bunch sprint would have been perfect for him.

[Sasquatch]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

Phil Gil is unstoppable! Might have been interesting to see what happened if Vanendert hadn't been there to help, but he'd prolly still would have won. No prices up yet for the Tour of Poland on Bet365 which tends to suggest they aren't gonna have a market for it - which is a shame.

Yeah. I asked Bet365 about it last night. They were considering it but obviously decided not to do it. Shame because I know there would have been some profitable head to heads - there always is in this race. It's a protour race so I'm surprised not everyone has picked it up.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Yeah a bit of a shambles from Bet365. No markets for Poland or Eneco, but they manage to get their markets up for the non-televised Denmark. Moan over. Vuelta starts in just over a week and some markets are up on Bet365. Don't think the starting line ups have been confirmed yet - so a bit risky putting up a bet now, but I don't want to miss the boat (I've already missed the Kruijswijk boat - was at 151 to win and now down to 81). Just one bet for now. Top 10 finish for Tschopp (51 with Bet365) - finished 16th in the Giro earlier on this year and had some decents finishes on the bigger stages - so the 6 (or is it 7) mountain top finishes shouldn't phase him too much. Also, from looking at the provisional start list for BMC it doesn't look like he'll have any team responsibilities on the mountain stages - so he should have a free hand to have a good go at the GC.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Another one. Top Ten finish for Bakelants (51 with bet365) - this will depend on JvdB's form and fitness which we prolly won't know until after Stage 4, but my feeling is that he won't have had enough time for recovery after his prang in the Tour (he'll prolly win it after me saying this!). So hopefully Bakelants might be given more scope to compete in the GC - showed he was a decent climber in the Giro and very aggressive. One to watch for a stage win as well I think.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Very short TTT to kick off the Vuelta tomorrow so I can't see the time gaps being that big for the teams that are gonna be contesting the win - maybe it was a bit of an anomaly but the TTT in the Tour was over a slightly longer distance and 12 seconds covered the top 7 teams at the end. So any slight mistakes or a puncture at the wrong time or to the wrong person could be fatal to any team's chances. HTC look like the team to beat as per usual, but after that the next 6 or 7 teams look much of a muchness to me. Therefore I've put a couple of small bets on BMC (34 with Bet365) and Rabobank (41 with Bet365) to win. In my book both should be nearer to the 20-25 mark given the guys that they have in their teams. Small stakes anyway, so lets see what happens. By the way it would be great if a mod could change the thread title to the Vuelta.

[Mattt123]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Also liking BMC for today, I hope they can finish top 3. Van Avermaet, Frank, Kohler, Santoromita, Quinziato, Phinney all guys made for this. I initially believed that Burghardt was in the start list, but its Kroon, who's weaker in T.T.T. Tschopp will mainly follow I guess. For GC i like Mollema vs Ardila and for green I find Van Avermaet vs Boonen interesting, I honestly also don't understand why the market is desperately in love with Anton here, I realise he was leading last year but he always seems to have a bad day/week in 3 week races. 47 I.T.T won't help either. Top 10 Cataldo was worth a try. 28/1 - missed out on top 10 in Giro by only 4 mins.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

I honestly also don't understand why the market is desperately in love with Anton here' date=' I realise he was leading last year but he always seems to have a bad day/week in 3 week races. 47 I.T.T won't help either. [/quote'] Yeah he does always seem to have a bad day here or there - I wouldn't have him as favourite either, but it was a good TTT by Euskatel yesterday and he's probably going to be getting a couple of stage wins on the mountain top finishes (and the resulting time bonuses). So it's a difficult one to call. Strange TTT yesterday. Didn't see it but according to reports quite a few crashes and dropped chains. That incline so close to the start seems to have sorted out the men from the boys as well. Strangely Wiggins odds for the GC seem to have come in a bit despite Sky's woeful effort - will be intersting to see what he's like on stage 4. Couple of picks for today. Haussler and Van Avermaet (both at 34 with Bet365). Gonna be difficult for the break to succeed on a day with a profile like this - so that tends to suggest a sprint, but the last km or so looks a bit interesting. Hairpin bend with about 1.3km to go and then with 0.5km to go there is a kick up for 250m at 7%. So there are possibilities for solo attacks (Cancellara maybe? Can't see Bennati getting up in the sprint for Leopard Trek) there and although the incline is only for 250m I can see it messing up leadouts and sapping legs for the final sprint. Sagan looks like the ideal person for the stage, but he's only 3.5 and I wouldn't have Haussler or GVA that far behind him.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Awful selection of riders and prices on Bet365 today - I think they're using the same riders they priced up yesterday. There are possibilities of a break or an attack on the final climb succeeding today, but with the heat I'm going for a winner from a reduced group sprint. Going for Haussler (29 with Bet365) again - he finished nowhere when I picked him yesterday, but I was reading a quote from the Garmin DS saying that Farrar was the man they were looking to on the flat days and Haussler would get his chance on the hillier day's sprint finishes and today has virtually no flat bits - it's either up or down. Small stakes anyway. Here's hoping they have some better markets for tomorrow's stage.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 Good luck, took Haussler as well. Main pick tonight is Matti Breschel (23 Betfair) though. I think he's building his form nicely for the worlds and think tonight's stage could really suit him.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Phew - just about managed to get my bets in with about 30 secs remaining. Martin (301 with Bet365) One for the break. Probably won't have any HTC train duties till stage 7 i think, so can pick and choose days here and there that he fancies to have a go at and today might suit him. The last climb is ~20km, but it's very steady at ~6% the whole way and he could just tap out a rhythm that suits him. Let's not forget he has finished 2nd on Ventoux. Nieve (26 with Bet365) Has a habit of winning big stages. Admittedly usually on long breakaways, but with it not being steep enough probably for Anton to put in a big attack - Euskatel might send Nieve on the attack and see who wants to follow him.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Well my Tschopp overall bet is well and truly dead, Bakelants one is still in with a wee shout - he looked alright till Nibali put in that little burst and that seemed to cook his goose. JVDB seems to have recovered well, so he may decide to concentrate on stage wins. Frank (151 with Bet365) Talking of cooked gooses - only Santambrogio is left standing for BMC. So much for Frank and my pal Tschopp - I reckon now they'll start looking for stage wins and breaks. Frank was involved in a couple of breaks in the Giro and today's stage might be another that stays away. The stage profile is comparable to the one on stage 3, just a bit longer and with a "slightly" steeper finish. Difficult to know though with this heat. Madrazo (101 with Bet365) First GT for the Movistar rider, but some encouraging results so far this year and his team think a lot of him. Not the best of reasoning, but I was looking to pick a Movistar rider today as they don't really have a GC contender and stage wins looks their best bet. Roche (41 with Bet365) My outside pick for a win if the break fails. Despite losing a bit of time yesterday he looked quite strong on stage 3 - beating Breschel in a sprint. Today's finish is a bit different, but with good positioning and a bit of luck he might have the legs to challenge - will need to be in the top 6 or 7 at the bottom of the climb and hope the guy directly in front doesn't blow up.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Madrazo got my hopes up there today a bit, but the peleton were in no mood to allow the break to get away. Did seem a bit strange tactically that Quick-Step were helping on the front (at least for the bit I saw) - you'd have thought they would have preferred the break to succeed and to get all the time bonuses at the end. Going for Roche again tomorrow (51 with Bet365). Bookies have this priced up as a sprint stage, but they're really struggling in this heat to make it over the climbs and there's another one tomorrow about 20km from the finish. Roche finished well today and as already mentioned beat Breschel in the sprint for stage 3. Will probably pick a couple of outsiders for the break in the morning.

[mape]

Re: Cycling 2011 testing Kessiakoff, winner of tour de austria... (300 (E/W) paddypower) 600 stanjames, 300 betclic, 250 bet24

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011

testing Kessiakoff, winner of tour de austria... (300 (E/W) paddypower) 600 stanjames, 300 betclic, 250 bet24

Astana sure could do with a win - does Kessiakoff have a bit of a sprint on him? Good luck anyway. A couple for the break. Champion (151 with Bet365) and Erviti (101 with Bet365) - break didn't manage to stay away yesterday, but according to the commentators that was down to a tail wind, which from what i can see won't be present today. I questioned Quick-Step's tactics yesterday as well and with Moreno only 9 seconds back now they would be crazy to force the pace and have the chance of him getting bonus seconds at the end. Champion looks in decent form coming ~50th on the Sierra Nevada stage which isn't too shabby for a non-climber and Erviti my Movistar pick for the day has previous breakaway win experience in the Vuelta. Small stakes as always.

[mape]

Re: Cycling 2011 well, its a massive longshot, just to have something :) and its value, he have won tour of austria, and has got selfconfidence right now... the problem is the three weeks, but we will se :)

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 A good old boring sprint stage today. Just one pick Degenkolb (19 with Bet365) Didn't perform very well in Poland, there seemed to be some confusion betweeen himself and Howard, plus he was hitting the front way too soon. However I feel he does have the speed to win here, it's just a case of (as always) timing, positioning and luck.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 No luck so far - well no luck and some not well thought out picks. Couple of selections possibly for the break. Zaugg (151 with Bet365) and Majka (126 with Bet365) both having good Vueltas and are both decent climbers. Tomorrow's profile is spikey again with 4 catagorised climbs plus a couple of extra ones near the finish. Even if they don't get in the break, I guess there's always the chance to attack if it all comes back together. Little bet on Poels (15 with Bet365) in case it comes to a "sprint" finish up the final kick. Other than Moreno he was the only guy to get close to JRod the other day and that was after puncturing before the penultimate climb and chasing back on and I'm sure he was held up a little bit on the really steep bit of the finishing climb after a Liquigas rider blew up in front of him. Who knows, maybe JRod might not be feeling too frisky either after getting involved in the crash today - sore wrist seems to be the extent of his injuries.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 Rein Taaramae @ 151 Sportingbet In an earlier stage with similar characteristics Taaramae tried for the break and I have a feeling he might do so again today. His GC chances are totally gone so stage wins are all that is left for him to chase and I like the odds on him here, even if a breakaway is odds against to succeed.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Got to be quick. Garate (151 with Bet365) Bonnafond (151 with Bet365) and Bernabeu (201 with Bet365). Three half decent shouts for the break I reckon (though whether the break will succeed or not is another matter) - Garate is an old hand at getting into breaks and picking up a big win here or there, Bonnafond looked in decent nick on the Sierra Nevada stage and despite only being a few minutes back I can't see him being viewed as a GC threat. Finally Bernabeu is probably ACG's best rider (not that that says much) and was trying to get into a break today. One more Lagutin (251 with Bet365). Might struggle a bit on the steeper bits tomorrow if it really kicks off, but hung on well on stage 4 and showed a decent finish. Small stakes as per usual.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Four losers, but who cares - what a day's racing. Wiggo, Froome and Martin. :ok

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Nothing interesting in the "to win" market today, you can't even have an ew bet today on Bet365 - reckon it's time to maybe change bookies. One H2H bet. Sivtsov to beat LL Sanchez (2.6 with Bet365) - I'd have these guys down at about equal in terms of TTing and after losing time yesterday this will be their chance to make some of it back on the less able TTers ahead of them. Sanchez did beat Sivtsov in last year's Vuelta TT in Penafiel, but Sanchez was fighting for a top ten then and Sivtsov was helping Velits - this year it should be an even fight. Not sure if Sivtsov has a ride for next year yet as well, so this is a good shop window.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Weather forecast looks a bit different for tomorrow from the past week or so - much cooler with possibilities of wind and rain. Therefore my choices for the break are gonna be bigger, stronger guys. Bonnafond (201 with Bet365), Sivtsov (151 with Bet365) and Frank (151 with Bet365). Already had bets on all three - not sure what happened to Sivtsov in the TT, he wasn't that far behind at the 2 intermediate time checks and then he somehow lost 6 minutes in the last split, maybe a mechanical or maybe he just hit the wall. But all three shouldn't be put off by any bad weather and assuming Moncoutie and/or Taaramae go for the break I'd hope they would be able to stay with them. Also having another bet on Martin (11 with Bet365) - obviously that's Dan and not Tony. Won both of the sprints so far on mountain top finishes and the last km looks fairly flattish. Your Kessiakoff bet is starting to look better and better Mape - feeling nervous about it?

[mape]

Re: Cycling 2011 hehe I answer like Kessiakoff himself. I just take it day for day, and se whats happend :) its fun to watch a rider from my home country do as good as he does, and the next 4-5 days can be really god cycling.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 What I wouldn't have given for a bit of rain today! Sure is a good Vuelta so far though - at least I think so. Looks like it's gonna come down to the last few km of the climb on Sunday, though there are a couple of stages in the last week where a few secs might be lost/gained. Who's going to win? Can't see Wiggens hanging on - the team looks too weak. Would be pretty funny though if Nibali lost out because of the mess Liquigas made at the end of stage 6 and the lost bonus seconds. Looks like a sprinters day tomorrow, but in case the break stays away going for Fouchard (201 with Bet365) and Le Lay (201 with Bet365). Fouchard is break crazy - in breaks multiple times in the Eneco Tour and once so far in the Vuelta, looks like quite a strong rider. Can't remember the exact quote, but AG2R's DS was talking at the start of the race about trying to get stage wins for Houanard, Bonnafond and Le Lay - so far Le Lay is the only one not to have tried for a break yet (I think). Again another strong rider.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Certainly hope it will be a day for the break. As you say with two tougher days to come hopefully the GC contenders will take it easy, but you never know who might try and get in the break. Three quickies. Some of the same old faces Bonnafond (67 with Bet365), Madrazo (51 with Bet365) and T. Martin (51 with Bet365) - all can climb a bit, but more importantly if it comes down to a small group finish I feel each of them would have a chance of winning either from a sprint or attacking from a few km out.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 Yeah, agree that this one should be good for the break. Sylvain Chavanel @ 21 Sportingbet His goal was to win a stage at the Vuelta and this is ideally suited to him. Good price for a rider like Chav. Tony Martin @ 80 Betfair Agree he is a good one for today. Could try to time trial to the finish after attacking 5-6km from the finish and if the break composition lacks strong riders theres a good chance he could do just that. Greg Van Avermaet @ 70 Betfair Not a super climber but was in very strong form coming into the Vuelta and with such a long flat finish it's quite conceivable the entire break will contest this in a sprint. Obviously if the Belgian is in the break he'd likely be the fastest. Also, did Kroon abandon overnight or something? 240s seems a little large to me. Ditto even for Cancellara at 300s. Can climb a little bit on his day, if he could get into the break and somehow stay with the best climber for a decent period, he will madman the descent and has the TT skills and sprint to win. Count Spartacus as one of my picks too.