Cycling 2011

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Good luck with those CT. Difficult one to call today, I guess the only sure thing is that the winner will have to able to climb. Going for Menchov (81 with Bet365) and Brajkovic (151 with Bet365). Geox and Radioshack both have more than one guy up in the GC standings and it makes sense to continue the working over of Sky (and the other GC teams) from yesterday. Neither rider are what I'd think of as natural stage winners, but with so many guys within striking distance of winning the GC, it will be impossible to mark every attack or to pull back every break.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Surprised a bit by Kessiakoff's changing odds to win the stage. Was 126 last night and now into 51 - despite his stomach problems he didn't do badly yesterday, but he can't be back to 100% yet. Couple of quickies. Moncoutie (21 with Bet365) and Nieve (21 with Bet365). I'd be very surprised if Moncoutie didn't get into the break - just to mop up some more points in the KotM, and from a break that stays away I'm not too sure there's anybody else I can see beating him up the Angliru -maybe Anton if he miraculously discovers some form. However I feel Anton is going to be helping Nieve today - profile looks ripe for an attack on the penultimate climb, quick descent and hopefully get a 40-60 sec lead at the base of the Angliru. Big old thumbs down for British Eurosport - not showing the stage live today. Reduced to watching it on ITV.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Put some money in my SportingBet and Betfair to give me a few more options for the rest of the Vuelta. Trying Veelers Top 3 (21 with SportingBet) today. Kittel has already left the Vuelta, but his lead out man is still here and with quite a few other sprinters also having left for various reasons, the door might be open for a lesser light to shine here. He's had a few 4ths and 5ths in the chances he's had to sprint on his own and beaten some decent sprinters on the way. Bit of interest anyway for a (probably) boring stage. Quick point Cycling Tipster - I don't think there's anything wrong with putting live bets up, but you definitely have to put them up before the race is over otherwise it's breaking Rule 1 of the forum about "no after eventing". Nice Cobo pick though - what I wouldn't give for a winner myself.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Last chance saloon maybe for Sky, but I can't see it working for them here. One for the break - Rohregger (201 with Bet365). Leopard-Trek are about 6 mins down in the team classifications behind Geox and today might be the sort of day they can try and make some of it back up. Rohregger looked strong the other day when he got into a break and like Sky, they might as well try (even if it's unlikely to succeed). Also Sorensen (160 with Betfair). Has had a decent Vuelta and although today's finish might be a bit steeper in bits than he normally likes, we also know that if he's feeling good he's not averse to having a go and attacking.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011 What price was Chris Froome before the start I wonder?

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Looks ~400 on Betfair. At least that's the highest amount they have money matched on. Pretty epic finish today. Some great shots from the camera bike as Froome attacked. I was even shouting at the TV, but it wasn't to be. Great try though from Froome, deserved the stage win even if it looks like the red is a bridge to far.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Some nice results yesterday Cycling Tipster. :ok Some picks for the break today. Zaugg (220 with Betfair) finished well down the field yesterday which either means he's feeling crap or saving himself for today - will need it to be a small break at the end though to have a chance in a sprint. Reynes (101 with Bet365) and Mondory (101 with Bet365), both are sprinters but can climb a bit and have been getting involved in breaks through the Vuelta. Looks about 15 km from the end of the final descent to the finish, so there's time to chase back if anyone attacks on the final climb.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 One Basque pick for today Verdugo (101 with Bet365) for pretty obvious reasons. Not sure I can see a break succeeding today, but if it does I see it favouring a type of rider similar to Paulinho yesterday - who just ran out of juice on the flat bit after the descent, but today's stage is only 6 km from end of the descent to the finish so the chances of staying away are better. Therefore going for Frank (290 with Betfair), Machado (170 with Betfair) and Rohregger (126 with Bet365). Small stakes as always.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 If only the stage was about 60 km shorter today. What a finish that would have been to the Vuelta. However it's not 60km shorter, so that pan flat bit after climbs plays into the hands of sprinters who can climb a bit (more likely from a break, but possibly from the GC group depending on how quick they go). Having another go at Mondory (120 with Betfair) and De Kort (101 with Bet365). Both put in some decent climbing work during the Vuelta and have a sprint if it comes down to a small group finish.

[TheSwadMod]

Re: Cycling 2011 Morning. Anyone seen any odds for the Worlds in Copenhagen starting 19th Sep? A search has drawn a blank so far on the "net" but I havent checked in any shops yet.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011

Morning. Anyone seen any odds for the Worlds in Copenhagen starting 19th Sep? A search has drawn a blank so far on the "net" but I havent checked in any shops yet.

Bookies are starting to price them up now. Having seen the form Cav is in for myself on Sunday he has to have a very good chance and Im surprised at how big his price is.

[mape]

Re: Cycling 2011 timetrial i took grabsch @37 bet24

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling 2011 Men TT Larsson – Grabsch 2.55 Larsson missed all the big tours this season. It’s his chance to save the season. The Swiss veteran is very constants Top 10 representative in last three World championships and in Olympic Games. Grabsch has tough Vuelta, finishing all the stages. He was 21-st in the individual TT. Far better chances for Gustav, who was ahead of Grabsch last year Millar – Wiggins 2.42 Wiggins will be tired after the tough Vuelta. Millar is better TT-ist at all and he saves himself and do not participate much races after Tour de France. Millar was second last year with great presentation. This year course is more flatter then last years, so it will suit better for Millar. Rui Costa – Jack Bauer 2.45 Costa showed progressing results in TT for the last two years. He is in form, winning strong Grand Prix de Monreal 10 days ago, beating very strong field. Bauer is noting special and riding for a much smaller team. Perfect odds for Costa

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 One H2H pick for me today. Brajkovic to beat Sergent at 2.5 (with Bet365). Sergent has looked pretty good this year getting 3 or 4 TT wins, but all of them have been at much shorter distances (and with the Eneco win he got lucky with the rain). So I'm not too sure how he'll cope with the longer distance, whereas with Brajkovic you know what you're getting. Janez had a good TT at the Vuelta (despite the fact that he wasn't going so well in the mountains) over a comparable distance and unless he gets unlucky with the rain I'd have him down as favourite to beat Sergent.

[kevshat]

Re: Cycling 2011

One H2H pick for me today. Brajkovic to beat Sergent at 2.5 (with Bet365). Sergent has looked pretty good this year getting 3 or 4 TT wins' date= but all of them have been at much shorter distances (and with the Eneco win he got lucky with the rain). So I'm not too sure how he'll cope with the longer distance, whereas with Brajkovic you know what you're getting. Janez had a good TT at the Vuelta (despite the fact that he wasn't going so well in the mountains) over a comparable distance and unless he gets unlucky with the rain I'd have him down as favourite to beat Sergent.

Good shout mate :clap.

[TheSwadMod]

Re: Cycling 2011 Got Cav at 6/1 for the road race on Sunday with William Hill..not sure if that's decent or not? Paddy Power only offered me 4/1 and Ladbrokes asked me "don't you mean the Tour de France,mate?" :unsure This was actually at bookies,not online.Every one had to ring up and ask for these..

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011

Got Cav at 6/1 for the road race on Sunday with William Hill..not sure if that's decent or not? Paddy Power only offered me 4/1 and Ladbrokes asked me "don't you mean the Tour de France,mate?" :unsure This was actually at bookies,not online.Every one had to ring up and ask for these..

Betting shop staff wont have a clue what your on about. Prices are up on oddschecker. Laddies, William Hill and VC are best price on Cav at 7/1. Gilbert is the favourite but as strong as he is it surely isnt a course best suited to his strengths.

[kevshat]

Re: Cycling 2011 Cycling Tipster, can you provide some reasoning with your bets as per the forum rules please. That way others can decide whether they want to follow you or not or know what you are thinking if they are considering the same bet themselves. Ta :ok.

[TheSwadMod]

Re: Cycling 2011

Betting shop staff wont have a clue what your on about.

Cheers for reply, I'm no expert but when the chap said "don't you mean the tour de france" I had to have a chuckle!

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Gonna try Greipel (32 with Betfair). It will be surprising if this doesn't come down to a sprint finish and I see a bit more value here than with Cavendish who is ~7. Looking back through this years results there's an arguement to be made that Greipel is the only rider to have beaten Cavendish in a Grand Tour sprint through sheer pace (Petacchi did beat him at the Giro but he was weaving about a bit and I have a feeling that when Farrar won at the Tour Cav lost his train or got blocked). Germany looks like they have a strong team to help Greipel, certainly stronger than GB's and with the potential for punctures on this course and crashes (see the women's race today) I'd rather be backing someone at 32 rather than at 7. One outsider as well Bak (251 with Bet365). Bit of a failure this as I placed this bet a couple of days ago and now on Betfair he's available at ~500. Denmark's chances of a home win probably went up in smoke when Breschel got injured and looking through their team I can't see anyone who could really be classified as a sprinter, therefore their best hope is going to be a break or if someone can shoot off from the front with a couple of Kms to go and Bak is possibly the sort of rider who could do that (or at least try). We saw him on the Champs Elysee hanging out in front of the peleton for a while and only getting caught in the last few Kms - so anything's possible.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011

Gonna try Greipel (32 with Betfair). It will be surprising if this doesn't come down to a sprint finish and I see a bit more value here than with Cavendish who is ~7. Looking back through this years results there's an arguement to be made that Greipel is the only rider to have beaten Cavendish in a Grand Tour sprint through sheer pace (Petacchi did beat him at the Giro but he was weaving about a bit and I have a feeling that when Farrar won at the Tour Cav lost his train or got blocked). Germany looks like they have a strong team to help Greipel, certainly stronger than GB's and with the potential for punctures on this course and crashes (see the women's race today) I'd rather be backing someone at 32 rather than at 7. One outsider as well Bak (251 with Bet365). Bit of a failure this as I placed this bet a couple of days ago and now on Betfair he's available at ~500. Denmark's chances of a home win probably went up in smoke when Breschel got injured and looking through their team I can't see anyone who could really be classified as a sprinter, therefore their best hope is going to be a break or if someone can shoot off from the front with a couple of Kms to go and Bak is possibly the sort of rider who could do that (or at least try). We saw him on the Champs Elysee hanging out in front of the peleton for a while and only getting caught in the last few Kms - so anything's possible.

Having witnessed Cav in the flesh last Sunday he is in stunning form and if it comes down to a sprint and hes there he is not going to get beaten. Not sure whoose in the German team but the British team looks strong to me. Thing is will the other countries let it become a sprint because they know there is pretty much one outcome if that happens.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Cycling 2011

Road Race - Elites 28km and Circuit X17 => 266 km Gerrans > Voeckler Bet365/Pinnacle 2,38 2,1 /5 Thomas > Oss Bet365/Pinnacle 2 3,9 /5 Roelandts > Van Avermaet Bet365/Pinnacle 3,15 2,1 /5 Albasini > Hoogerland Bet365/Pinnacle 2,29 1,8 /5 Costa > Rubiano Bet365/Pinnacle 2,09 2,1 /5 Haussler > Paolini Bet365/Pinnacle 1,741 3 /5 Lighart > Roche Bet365/Pinnacle 1,769 2,1 /5 Serpa > F Schleck Bet365/Pinnacle 2,23 3 /5 Boasson > Hushovd Bet24 2,55 2,1 /5 Viviani > O'Grady Bet24 1,85 1,5 /5 N Sorensen > F Schleck Bet24 2,4 1,8 /5 Van Avermaet > Visconti Bet24 1,85 3 /5 Morkov > Sutton Bet24 2,1 1,5 /5 Bole > Freire Bet24 2,55 1,5 /5 Bole > Modolo Bet24 1,85 1,5 /5 Chavanel > CA Sorensen Bet24 1,85 1,5 /5 Sagan > Hushovd Centrebet 2,2 2,25 /5 Thomas > Offredo Bet24 1,85 2,55 /5 Arvesen > Rasch Nordicbet 2,4 2,1 /5 Rojas > Modolo Nordicbet 1,8 2,1 /5 N Sorensen > Bak Nordicbet 2,2 1,5 /5 Bennati > Freire Bluesquare 2 3 /5 Haussler Sportingbet 26 0,75 /5 No Danish in top 3 Nordicbet 1,4 2,4 /5 Best Netherland > Best Danish Nordicbet 1,6 5,4 /5 Morkov top Danish Nordicbet 1,68 2,25 /5 Van Avermaet > Gerrans Bluesquare 1,85 2,1 /5 Bennati > Sagan Bwin 2,55 2,4 /5 Rojas > Van Avermaet Expekt 1,85 1,8 /5 Feillu > Gavazzi VictorChandler 1,8 3,9 /5 Rojas > Kittel VictorChandler 1,909 2,4 /5

Hi Mate As has already been stated by another mod (I will quote below), reasoning is strictly required in the betting sections of the forum and as good as your graph might be, to those who might want to follow (dependant upon strength of tip) the graph and subsequent bets, might well mean nothing. So, can we please have some reasoning for future bets or the posts may well be moved to the glory hunters section of the forum. Kevshat's earlier request.

Cycling Tipster, can you provide some reasoning with your bets as per the forum rules please. That way others can decide whether they want to follow you or not or know what you are thinking if they are considering the same bet themselves. Ta :ok.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011 Brilliant performance by the whole of the British team today and Cav did what he always does and finished it off. He also proved yet again that he doesnt need a train to win. Surely now he has to win SPOTY.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 King Cav :notworthy Got the gap and went for it. Pretty good performance by Goss - he was one of the first names I'd crossed out when thinking about who might win because he'd been in garbage form, but the Oz team got him in the right place at the end. Should be some good battles next year with Sky (presumably) v Greenedge.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011 Id read he hadnt actually signed with anyone and was waiting to see if he won today first.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 ....and still the Cavendish saga continues. I'm actually starting to think it might be better if he does go somewhere else. Having him in their GT team is just going to lessen Sky's chances of performing well in the GC. Anyway. Tour of Beijing starts tomorrow. Starts off with a TT which will probably decide who wins the overall as there are no time bonuses available on the other stages (as far as I am aware). The only other interesting stage is stage three, but none of the climbs on that day look particularly tough. Although they are classified as cat.1 the gradients only look ~5%, so the overall winner will be probably be the first person in the TT who isn't completely gubbins at climbing. One bet for the TT. Cummings (301 with Bet365) is just off the back of a successful Tour of Britain - 2nd overall and in the TT (roughly the same distance as tomorrow's stage) finished a handful of seconds behind Dowsett and Boom who are both priced much, much shorter here. Interesting to compare the 301 price with Cummings overall odds of 81, bearing in mind the overall will probably be decided tomorrow I'd think the 301 is way too high.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Not too far off with Cummings, but Martin (like Phil Gil in certain races) looks unbeatable in a TT. Only chance I can see in the future to beat him is if he falls off his bike or if the distance is very short (prologue type distance - less than 5km). Another Sky pick for stage 2. Appollonio (15 with Bet365) this time. Was impressed with his speed in the Giro earlier on the in the year. Despite an almost complete lack of lead out he was getting towards the top 5 in most sprints and nearly pipped Cav on one day's finish. So with the Sky train, who I hadn't been that impressed with earlier on in the year (apart from the Tour of California) starting to look a lot more cohesive and strong, I feel he'll have a decent shout of beating Sagan/Galimzyanov.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 Very scrappy finish today. Appollonio hit the front far too early and basically was a lead out for Haussler to get the win. Four climbs in tomorrow's stage, but I'm going with Galimzyanov (151 with Bet365). Yes I know he can't climb, but the climbs don't look that tough. There are two in the last 40 km - 6.5km at 5% and 4km at 5% with the last summit 12km from the finish, so there might be a little time to chase back on if he gets dropped. Katusha are also desperate for World Tour points, so if he feels he has a chance of hanging on, I'm sure his DS won't allow him to take it easy.