Cycling 2011

[Mattt123]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Although I understand your frustration I don't think that this is something new, its just very difficult for a level B or level C rider to win a stage in Tour. Lets check the winners of last year: 2010. Cancellara (2x), Cavendish (5x), Petacchi, Chavanel (2x), Andy Schleck (2x), Casar, Paulinho, Joaquin Rodriguez, Vino, Riblon, Voeckler, Fredrigo. All big names expect Paulinho and Riblon, still both very decent riders. 2009. Cancellara, Cavendish (6x), Contador (2x) Voeckler, Hushovd, Feillu, LL Sanchez, Fredrigo, Nicky Sorensen, Haussler, Ivanov, Contador, Astarloza, Garate, Frank Schleck. All big names except Astarloza, Sorensen and Garate, but surely no mugs as Garate and Sorenson were exceptional 'domestique' and Astarloza was riding with supertasty blood. In last 2 years 6 B+ riders won a stage, all the other ones where category A (Casar and Fredrigo probably between A and B+). Just very difficult to win a stage in the Tour. Anyway your luck will change soon, and there's still the Vuelta coming, surely a race with more chances for the brave attackers.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

I wont begrudge him his first win, that was an epic ride and achievement, but somebody who has a palmares like Hushovd, who already has worn the yellow jersey for a week and won a stage this year to go with 8 other tour stages -- for him to win in the break today by following Boasson Hagen just really annoyed me. If guys like Hushovd start putting themselves in every break, and the break only gets 4 chances a tour, then what's the point for the other 120 or so riders in the race who cant sprint, climb or TT? I wont deny having money on Hesjedal made Thor's win today particularly annoying, but even if I didn't have money on anyone in that break, the fact that an elite rider who has already had a super successful tour took the win on a stage meant for the non-elite riders really irks me. Might as well just have a field of 40 and have them only race the last 20km of a stage. Outside of Rui Costa and Vanendert the results would all have been the same. Anyway, rant over. Don't really expect anyone to agree with me.

We feel your pain Crocuhy, but as you admit I certainly can't agree with you (can't speak for others). What's he meant to do? Not race? He's an experienced rider with a better than decent sprint, good descending skills and a cycling brain. Having said all that though, Eddy Boass with a bit more nous probably still should have beaten him in the sprint and he did give Hesjedal a chance by not helping Eddy at all in the pursuit. Surprised again at his climbing abilities - I'd have quite a few of the other riders in the break down as better climbers, but maybe the conditions played into his hands. Maybe with these wins though we might see a change of tactics from other breakees (in breaks that contain him) with more attacks on the climbs or more likely the peleton might chase down any break that he tries to get into. All i can say is fair play to him, I couldn't see these wins coming and it's up to others to stop him. 5 quick picks as I've got to go out and spent too much time writing the last paragraph. Hoogerland (81 with Bet365) Sentimental pick maybe, but I feel the attacking spirit is starting to show in Johnny again. Tried a bit yesterday to get in the break and still finished in 65th i think which wasn't too shabby. A fit and non-scarred Hoogerland would probably be around 30s I feel, so since he's (hopefully) coming back to normal this might be a decent price. El Fares (81 with Bet365) Maybe a bit tactically naive as we saw the other day when he attacked out of the break with a long way to go, but strong and in form. Been finishing in the top third of racers on most stages. Rui Costa (81 with Bet365) Again one for the break. One of the few successful breakees so far! Been taking it easy apart from the one stage that he's won. Paulinho (81 with Bet365) Awful tour for the Shack so far. Loosing so many riders hasn't helped, but this might give Paulinho a chance as his domestique duties are reduced. Won a medium moutain stage last year in the Tour, so today shouldn't be beyond him. Gusev (81 with Bet365) A bit like El Fares, Gusev has been finishing most stages strongly and towards the front. Strong rider as well as his numerous numerous national championships attest.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

Although I understand your frustration I don't think that this is something new, its just very difficult for a level B or level C rider to win a stage in Tour. Lets check the winners of last year: 2010. Cancellara (2x), Cavendish (5x), Petacchi, Chavanel (2x), Andy Schleck (2x), Casar, Paulinho, Joaquin Rodriguez, Vino, Riblon, Voeckler, Fredrigo. All big names expect Paulinho and Riblon, still both very decent riders. 2009. Cancellara, Cavendish (6x), Contador (2x) Voeckler, Hushovd, Feillu, LL Sanchez, Fredrigo, Nicky Sorensen, Haussler, Ivanov, Contador, Astarloza, Garate, Frank Schleck. All big names except Astarloza, Sorensen and Garate, but surely no mugs as Garate and Sorenson were exceptional 'domestique' and Astarloza was riding with supertasty blood.

I don't doubt that most of those are big names, but it's not so much whether they are an A or B rider, but that they are different types of riders. Riders like Chavanel, Garate, Casar, Fedrigo, Garate, Ivanov, Sorensen -- for me they are opportunists, and very good ones at that. The key for me is that they aren't top level sprinters or climbers, rather, they use racecraft and cunning as much as their natural abilities to get the win. Who are their equivalents this year? Outside of LLS and Costa, there haven't been any wins by the opportunist riders, even the notable ones like Chavanel or Flecha or Casar. And LLS was really just a result of the crash of Vino and Van Den Broeck. The big names always dominate the tour, yes, but this year, it seems that unless you are a top level sprinter or climber, you really aren't going to get a look in. That's not really Thor's fault, and I think every breakaway rider is bloody stupid for working with him. Still, you don't see Cav or Gilbert put themselves in these types of breaks. That Thor did just rubbed me the wrong way. As Terpstra lamented, it really is the death of the opportunist. Anyway, for today, does anyone think that the bot on Betfair is off? Casar, Roche, Gerrans et al are a best price of 30ish, which is a high indicator of a break. Yet lesser breakaway candidates like Iglinsky, Fofonov, Leukemans, Hoogerland and Gusev have all been at a minimum of 250. Johnny you can probably understand but a couple of those guys are quite good in the classics. Even Terpstra was like 600 earlier this morning. Not saying their chances are great but those odds are much higher than they'd normally be on these types of stages. :\ Also, the final descent today was used on stage 10 of the 2009 Giro. Gradients of 10% and maximum of 14 going down is going to really trouble the Schleck sisters. Di Luca won that stage ahead of Pellizotti so it's not too helpful in that context. Best placed on that day was Arroyo.

[BelgianPunter]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Dangerous downhill today. So i take Samuel Sanchez-Chavanel 1 @ 1.51 (6/10)

[Jenspm]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I can't believe my own eyes, jesus christ. Am I allowed to call it Tour de Norvége now?

[BobNL]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

I can't believe my own eyes, jesus christ. Am I allowed to call it Tour de Norvége now?

Come on, give us something too. The Dutchman second... Congratz ;)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

I can't believe my own eyes, jesus christ. Am I allowed to call it Tour de Norvége now?

I think that's safe. Particularly seeing as the French wont have won a stage all tour! Uran @ 130 Betfair (Pick) Talk of some climbers potentially struggling with the high altitude, yet those climbers are still much shorter to win than Uran, who is Colombian and basically grew up at these heights. He is well down on time to Yellow contenders so if he attacks he will enjoy a similar level of leeway to what Vanendert did when he won. Given this is the only way Vanendert can probably win this stage and he is 15.5, then why is Uran, who is so comfortable at these heights, so much longer? Alternatively, and more likely, Contador will attack. In the Giro only the Colombian Rujano could follow him and on that day Contador let the Colombian take the stage in exchange for riding with him, so maybe history can repeat. Leipheimer @ 251 Paddy RS need to at least try, and Leipheimer is the most logical. It is Leipheimer though. He has all the attacking instincts of a Roy Hodgson away side, but eh, I'll hope for a miracle. Zubeldia @ 501 William Hill RS rider. Big price. Probably too close on time to go in an early break but you never know. Trofimov @ 201 Paddy What applies to RS applies to Katusha. Karpets likes to live up to his name and roll over so it's Trofimov for me.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Hesjedal 221 @ Sportsbet Vanvelde 200 @ Betfair Given there are 2 HC climbs before the finish Garmin will probably want to put a rider in the break just on the off chance it succeeds (for team classification purposes). Both these riders are decent climbers and could win from break. Van Garderen @ 350 Betfair Just looked a shade too big given I expect him to try for the break.

[Jenspm]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

I think that's safe. Particularly seeing as the French wont have won a stage all tour! Uran @ 130 Betfair (Pick) Talk of some climbers potentially struggling with the high altitude, yet those climbers are still much shorter to win than Uran, who is Colombian and basically grew up at these heights. He is well down on time to Yellow contenders so if he attacks he will enjoy a similar level of leeway to what Vanendert did when he won. Given this is the only way Vanendert can probably win this stage and he is 15.5, then why is Uran, who is so comfortable at these heights, so much longer? Alternatively, and more likely, Contador will attack. In the Giro only the Colombian Rujano could follow him and on that day Contador let the Colombian take the stage in exchange for riding with him, so maybe history can repeat.

Furthermore, Sky's manager said yesterday that Edvald & co will "work for Uran tomorrow" - it's clear that he's their (rightful) captain in the next couple of stages, and they all seem ready to help him however much they can (though I suspect at on an extreme stage like this, he'll have to do a lot of the work himself, of course)

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Yeah, there's lot of big prices around today which is nice. Even Bet365 have some for once! Difficult to see a break succeeding, but if it follows the pattern of the previous mountain stages and Leopard Trek try and set a high pace I'm not sure they have the men for it. Monfort, Gerdemann and Fuglsang have been a disappointment for them and with such big climbs and at altitude I'm not sure the peleton will be going super duper quick over the first two climbs. Straw clutching at it's best! Zeits (201 with Bet365) Not a guy I know a lot about, but Astana seem to think a lot of him. Performed well in the big mountain stages so far and is far enough down to be let into a break. Martinez (251 with Bet365) Second chance for Egoi from me. Same reasoning as last time - good climber and Euskatel will want someone up the road to try and help Sanchez if needed. Knowing my luck they'll send Verdugo or somebody else. Ruijgh (251 with Bet365) Like Zeits someone who I don't know a lot about and doesn't seem to have a lot of history before this year, but a strong performance in the Dauphine and great tour so far. Just about on the borderline of people who you'd think would be allowed in a break (8 mins down on Uran as well which hopefully means Sky wouldn't chase him down). Zandio (351 with Bet365) I've given up waiting for Gerrans to get in a break - he must be on Uran babysitting duties. Think today is too big and long for Thomas so Zandio gets my patriotic bet.

[9coconuts]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I've taekn Trofimov @400 and Verdugo @500 on Betfair. There are some attractive prices around for riders who've riden fairly well so far but have enough leeway to make a break. These 2 fit that description both being around 20mins behind on GC. Bets influenced by the info already given in the thread - thanks for the help as always guys. The bookmakers seem to be very confident that the stage will be decided between those in the elite group. I think there's enough chance that it won't be.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Hmm it has been an interesting Tour since I went on my hols. It seems Ive made a little bit of a mess of the yellow jersey and without the big 2 markets but we shall see what happens. I was going to lay off some of my bet on Andy when he was fav but didnt bother. I think Evans looks the most likely winner at this stage. At least Sanchez and Cav have been doing the business for me. As for todays stage Im leaving alone although am tempted to go with Sanchez again.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Had a feeling Andy would have to do something as he surely knew that if he didnt go he wouldnt win the Tour. Fair play to him and I hope it pays off and not just because I have backed him.

[Jenspm]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Holy shit Voeckler you legend

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Legend? Despite wearing yellow and having a team mate in the final selection he forced Evans to do all the chasing. Piss poor if you ask me.

[Jenspm]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

Legend? Despite wearing yellow and having a team mate in the final selection he forced Evans to do all the chasing. Piss poor if you ask me.

No-one expected him to be even close to keeping it after today's stage, or last stage for that matter. He's not built for climbs like this, yet he managed to stay up there with the top riders on the second-toughest stage of the tour. Amazing show of will-power, just like '04.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 He only kept yellow because Evans towed him though. Evans ushered him to do a turn and he refused, even though he's in the yellow jersey. And he didn't have Rolland do anything until the final km either. It's probably strategically smart given Evans had to chase, but I don't feel that's the stuff of legend. Now Andy Schleck's ride today, now that was a legendary performance. Very gutsy to try something like that and full kudos for taking the initiative and attacking from so far out. Also, Cavendish outside the time limit and has been docked 20pts in the Green Jersey Classification. Now leads Rojas by only 15pts, which is still somewhat redundant given Rojas can't beat Cav in a sprint.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Should add that given Contador was look stronger it was a surprise to see him dropped and also Sanchez had a stinker which was a bigger surprise.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

He only kept yellow because Evans towed him though. Evans ushered him to do a turn and he refused, even though he's in the yellow jersey. And he didn't have Rolland do anything until the final km either. It's probably strategically smart given Evans had to chase, but I don't feel that's the stuff of legend. Now Andy Schleck's ride today, now that was a legendary performance. Very gutsy to try something like that and full kudos for taking the initiative and attacking from so far out. Also, Cavendish outside the time limit and has been docked 20pts in the Green Jersey Classification. Now leads Rojas by only 15pts, which is still somewhat redundant given Rojas can't beat Cav in a sprint.

Are they trying to do their best to stop Cav winning green? Hopefully he wont do the same tomorrow. I still cant believe the others sat there and let Andy ride off like that but I guess the others just didnt have it in them to chase from that far out. After that Andy deserves to win the Tour and baring anything funny happening tomorrow I cant see Cadel gaining any time on him.] As for Voeckler some people are suggesting hes on drugs and it certainly is a massive surprise for everyone to see him doing what hes doing in the mountains, but for me he would have to much to lose given the French love him anyway after what happened before. Also to be fair to him even riding in Evans' wheel is a massive thing for him to be doing and if Evans cant shake him off than thats his problem. Voeckler isnt meant to be winning the Tour and Evans needs to gain time of him not the other way round. Also Andy now has 70 points in the KOTM so hes in with a chance of winning that as well.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Yeah I was having a look at the green jersey situation and maybe thinking of having a punt of Rojas, but even if Cavendish loses another 20 points tomorrow it looks unlikely. If he did lose the 20 points and assuming Cav beats Rojas in the final sprint, Cav would have to finish 3rd I think (and Rojas 4th) before Rojas would end up in green. Rojas is only 4.00 on Bet365 for the green - which doesn't look great value.

Legend? Despite wearing yellow and having a team mate in the final selection he forced Evans to do all the chasing. Piss poor if you ask me.

Legend is maybe a bit strong from Jens, but it was still a great ride. Considering how "empty" he looked at the bottom of the climb I think he did very well to hang on to the coat tails of Evans (who also did a fantastic ride). Should he have helped? I don't think he could. No point taking your turn for 200m and then blowing up. Rolland maybe should have helped a bit on the earlier part of the climb, but again maybe Voeckler wanted to keep him for the 10%+ bits near the end. Difficult to know. Anyway great ride from Andy (and well done Monfort - he must have read what I wrote about him earlier!)

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 A great blog as to why Cav is one of the best sportsmen in Britian and deserves more people recognising his efforts. http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/mattslater/2011/07/consistent_cav_the_great_briti.html

[mape]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I cant agree in what you say about Voeckler. For me hes a hero, in what he has done in this your, and in -04. today I think he made the right choise to make evans to do the job. It was a strong wind straight in their faces, and no point to go in the front and use all your power. he isnt the favorit, has never been, and will never be, so should use that to finish as good as he could in this tour. And I also read for some days ago some of you belived that doping on some of the riders. What Andy did today, is it possible? strong strong wind straight at him, he made his lead even bigger on the "flat". Is it possible? when the pack 3 min behind where on 4-5-6 riders. And what andy did today, is something that was possible because of all crashes. Radioshack, Lotto, astana is exampel of teams that whould had have som riders to chase Andy. today it was only euscaltel who had some riders. sorry for the bad language...

[Skittle]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Voeckler really looked all in at the finish.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

I cant agree in what you say about Voeckler. For me hes a hero, in what he has done in this your, and in -04. today I think he made the right choise to make evans to do the job. It was a strong wind straight in their faces, and no point to go in the front and use all your power. he isnt the favorit, has never been, and will never be, so should use that to finish as good as he could in this tour. And I also read for some days ago some of you belived that doping on some of the riders. What Andy did today, is it possible? strong strong wind straight at him, he made his lead even bigger on the "flat". Is it possible? when the pack 3 min behind where on 4-5-6 riders. And what andy did today, is something that was possible because of all crashes. Radioshack, Lotto, astana is exampel of teams that whould had have som riders to chase Andy. today it was only euscaltel who had some riders. sorry for the bad language...

I don't disagree that tactically Voeckler made the right choice, I just don't think he deserves grand praise for it. And even if he should have stayed behind Evans, I don't see why he can't send Rolland to ride at the front for more than just the last 1km. And besides, Cunego did nothing but follow Evans and he got dropped. Ditto Vanendert and Rolland etc. So Voeckler can't have been that weak. As for Andy and doping? Well, it did remind me a hell of a lot of Floyd Landis' efforts when he "won" the tour. The only other rider to successfully win in a break like that in the high mountains was Michael Rasmussen, and obviously we both know how those two ended up. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt though -- Andy didn't really gain time on the peloton, he gained time on Cadel Evans. Because that was basically the only rider who made any sort of genuine effort to chase him down. Momfort offered Andy more help than any other rider offered Evans. (And this is why I don't really like Voeckler yesterday. He wouldn't even send Rolland to co-operate with Evans on the flat) Also, Andy has an established pedigree. The reason for the comments about Vanendert were because he had never won anything before. And then he won a queen stage. He was even 10mins behind already because he was sacrificed to help his team-mates, so I think even Lotto didn't expect him to be at this level -- otherwise why have him lose so much time? Sure JVDB was there at the time, but even with Uran riding for Wiggins and stopping for him he lost a lot less time. Vanendert did ride more normally yesterday though, so maybe he is just an undiscovered talent. I just thought it was a bit strange how he came to prominence like he did when he had already lost the time he had after being sacrificed. And finally, I really wouldn't pay any attention to what I think this tour. I can't get my head around anything that's happening or call a single stage right -- Breaks seem more than happy to let elite, powerful sprinters ride with them before powering to victory, without any real resistance. GC favourites are happy not to work to chase down Andy Schleck and with the exception of Sanchez and Andy yesterday, none of the climbers even looked to attack to make time in the high mountains. With the exception of Voeckler defending yellow (aside from yesterday I do think he deserves credit for this) I've never seen a tour where the peloton as a collective group have offered so little resistance.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

Also Andy now has 70 points in the KOTM so hes in with a chance of winning that as well.

After yesterday, surely Andy has to be weaker than he'd normally be. Frank Schleck has moved up to 56pts, just 18pts behind Vanendert. Frank is the favourite tomorrow and if he does indeed win then Vanendert would need to claim 22pts and Sanchez 24. Interestingly, there are 30 KOM points before the summit tomorrow. If they were willing to bet on Andy Schleck finishing 3rd or worse, one of Vanendert or Sanchez could go for the early break and mop up those 30pts. Given how both climbed at the end today, it might be their best bet.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Well let's hope the race doesn't get decided today one way or another, otherwise tomorrow might be a bit of a bore. Anyone know if Martin was injured by the way when he "crashed" on the descent of the first climb yesterday - obviously he finished the stage, but wondering in terms of tomorrow if he's going to be carrying any bumps and bruises. Hesjedal (101 with Bet365) Great ride yesterday from the three Garmin guys and the team prize looks theirs. However AG2R and Leopard Trek are about 10 minutes behind, so they must be proactive today to defend it. Getting a guy in the break looks the best way and Hesjedal is fit and in form (unlike some of the other guys at much shorter odds). Roy (151 with Bet365) Been a bit quiet Mr. Roy the past couple of days. Been trying all tour for a win, but no luck yet. Could improve his KOTM standings as well - do you get prize money for 2nd and 3rd overall in the KOTM? Velits (201 with Bet365) Been a strange tour for Velits ie. we've hardly seen him. Down in 25th place and has been finishing consistenly near the front - so he can't be that out of shape. Might be building towards the Vuelta, but with no team responsibilities and with it being a short stage he might try and have a go today.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Not sure about Martin, but was wondering the same thing. Agreed on Velits and Hejsedal. Have also backed Kreuziger (75) and Gesink (30) on Betfair. Both I think will look for the break and Gesink being dutch should have extra motivation. Also took Sylvester Szmyd on the off chance Liquigas have him stage hunt instead of work for Basso. 600s on the Pole so couldn't resist.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I have just watched the end of yesterday's stage and have to say I think Europcar got the tatics spot on. At the end of the day Voeckler is not expected to be in yellow at the end of the stage so why should he or his team mate bother chasing? If Evans wants to win the Tour he had to chase. Voeckler was probably of the thinking if I can keep it I will but if I lose it then I lose it. I think Evens realised that he could probably chase quicker than the two of them anyway. Surprised to see you are still trying to get lucky with a big priced winner again. No play for me and I fully expect one of the big names to win.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I like Frank and to a lesser extent Sanchez today, but have backed both fairly substantially for KOTM, so wasn't going to back them to win the stage as they are the same thing. And after the luck I've had this tour, I'm due about fifty lucky breaks. As for Voeckler, why should it matter if he doesn't expect to keep yellow? He obviously tried every other day, so I don't know why you wouldn't send Rolland to help. He didn't really offer much in the climb anyway because that was the terrain where Evans was going to ride at the front. Like I said, I can't fault his tactics in the end, but I don't see why he should get any great kudos for it either.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Contador attacking from 92.6km out :eek This could be one very entertaining stage.