mape Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Im a big fan of cycling, but I dont have enought knowledge yet to make my on bet on the sport. Im glad you share your thought, and I have followd some of them. for ex. Movestar in the team competition, Gadret in KOTM, and Goss for the green. Now I have found for me an intresting odds On betsson.com theres a bet: Will a French rider win Stage 12? yes 6 No 1.10 What do you think, is there any value? Have been 3 winners from 2000... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattt123 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I wouldn't do that bet, only way a frenchie like can win is being in a breakaway and as this is the first serious mountain stage I don't think that attackers will be given much space. But don't shoot me if I prove to be wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattt123 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 And despite my lost hagen bet, lots of credit to hushovd, excellent ride, still I believe that first week became less exciting without bonifications for the top 3, I expect Thor to keep yellow until at least Saturday, possibly longer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 And despite my lost hagen bet' date=' lots of credit to hushovd, excellent ride, still I believe that first week became less exciting without bonifications for the top 3, I expect Thor to keep yellow until at least Saturday, possibly longer[/quote'] But the yellow jersey isnt that important at the moment and they havent had time bounses for a while though and I dont see it makes much difference. I couldnt care less who had the jersey at the moment and if Thor keeps it until Saturday then so be it. As for tomorrow Cav is a top price of even money. Given the form he showed on Monday all things being equal he should win pretty easily but Im happy to let him win again given the bets I already have on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 If anyone is having a bet on tomorrows stage I suggest you do it with Skybet. Not only are they top price about Cav if you fancy him but they are also betting 1/4 odds the first 4. Ive backed Farrar e/w at 4/1 as I see it as a very low risk bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Im a big fan of cycling' date=' but I dont have enought knowledge yet to make my on bet on the sport. [b']Im glad you share your thought, and I have followd some of them. for ex. Movestar in the team competition, Gadret in KOTM, and Goss for the green. Now I have found for me an intresting odds On betsson.com theres a bet: Will a French rider win Stage 12? yes 6 No 1.10 I wouldn't be too glad, that Goss bet has turned out horrific :lol I'm in agreeance with Matt on this one though. In previous years any number of the 50 or so frenchies could have won on Bastille Day. Because of the profile of this stage, I think the number of French riders who could actually win I can count on one hand. And one of those, Christophe Kern, I believe is suffering from Tendinitis and probably will abandon at some stage soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mape Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 ok, then I know... I belived that the mountainstage was the only way that i french rider would win, but if you dont think the odds is good enought, i let it go. And yes, the Goss bet werent so good :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 There's a sharp corner with about 200m to go so I'm fully expecting that IF it is a sprint finish then whoever has the lead train should win (i.e. Cavendish). That said, there's reportedly going to be some decent crosswinds in the middle part of the stage and I'm really hoping that we see some echolons and team's riding against each other to force the splits and catch back up. If this happens, then not all sprinters will be present and the stage wont really finish with the sprint teams fighting like they usually do. Ok, so with all that in mind I've specced: Alexander Vinokourov @ 200 Betfair The final few kms are a little bit up and down and there's a small bump in the final 5km or so that the Kazak could use to launch an attack. Under normal circumstances I can't see the sprint teams allowing this but if the peleton is split due to the crosswinds then there might not be enough firepower left to catch him. He definitely wants to wear yellow so if there are crosswinds and he makes the lead selection in a smallish group I fully expect for him to try. Daniel Oss @ 251 Paddy Power Oss tried for a late lone attack during last year's tour. He didn't succeed, but he lasted a lot longer than you'd have expected him to under the conditions. In the event he makes the lead group in a crosswind affected stage, then he's just the type of rider who can try and attack the small peloton late and solo to victory. Not backing Cancellara even though he is well equipped to do the things I'm looking for in today's selections. Apparently he's suffering from sinuses and regardless, if he's in the lead group he's hammering the peloton for Andy. If Andy's not there, neither is Fabian. Should point out too that the finish is a tailwind. This could help breakaway attempts but at the same time it may discourage efforts to force a split in the peleton. There's still a good chance that there will be a sprint finish, but I don't think it's set in stone, and I've no interest in backing Cavendish at evens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Loving the 4.6 on Betfair for Rojas to finish in the top 3 today. He finished second out of the bunch in yesterday's intermediate sprint, third in Monday's end of stage sprint, and (even before Cav was disqualified) third Monday's intermediate bunch sprint. Furthermore, if the crosswinds make it hard today, that works in his favour given his extra strength compared to most sprinters. I think his chance of a top 3 finish today is comfortably over 40%. I've had a decent sized bet on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I'd have to question Cav's lead-out train after seeing them outperformed by Dean and Hushovd on stage 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I can't believe how short Petacchi's odds are by the way. He's been hopeless so far. His highest finish in the four sprints so far is 9th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leadbelly Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Bit late writing a bet up for today up as I'm just back from my morning cycle - pretty windy down here too ! Tour De France 2011 - Stage 5 - Alberto Contador vs Andy Schleck (Match-Ups) Gone for Schleck here at 3.00 with Bet365. Think there was only a handful of places between them on the only other sprint stage so far and I can't see it being too different today. More of a coin toss really as to which finishes ahead and therefore I'm thinking the odds should be closer to 2.00. Small stakes anyway and let's hope for some good racing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Researching the sprints more, I see Farrar's won all three of the sprints he's been involved in. That makes 4/1 to win today look like a decent bet, but I still worry about Cav. JJ Rojas is better value to finish in the top three, as he has done in all three sprints he's been involved in. He's out to 5 now, so I've put a fraction more on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Feillu for me e/w at 25/1. He has looked strong the last few days and would have beaten Farrar, had it been another few metres. Their should be crosswinds today and I think Cavendish price is crazy short. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I've had a go at Mark Renshaw for a top 3 finish at 20-1. As I said, there's a tight corner with 200m to go so I think it's quite feasible that if HTC do get their train right (which they often do) then Renshaw can finish in the top 3 spots. On a number of finishes that Cav has won in the past, his lead out man has ended up in the top 3 as well. Renshaw on the Champs Elysee in the past, and Ciolek on a number of occasions when Cav debuted both come to mind. Again, not convinced it's going to be a sprint or that Cav wins it, but at these odds with this sort of run in I'm happy enough to have a go. Also gone Borut Bozic for the win @ 220. He's another rider who I can see having a go in that final 5km. He doesn't even need the cross winds to do it either, as Vaconsoleil have shown in the past they love to send a guy on the attack late and have their sprinters sit in if the attack fails. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Well I think that crash has cost a fair few of us a bit of money. Such a shame that as it would have been good to see how he would have got on in the mountains. I think its pretty much the first time Ive backed someone whose ended up crashing out. Also if something isnt done about that sprint then they clearly do have something against Cav. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Yeah, sadly Brajkovic has had to abandon. Shame because I think he was pretty nailed on to get a Top 10 finish. I'm really not the man to be following this year. Agreed on that sprint too. Rojas was all over the place and looked far less sporting than the Thor and Cav incident. On a stage note, apparently the cross winds are starting to build and I think that might have caused some of the crashes (Contador crashed too). Probably a bit of nervoursness and desire not to get caught out. Let's hope Gesink is okay -- he didn't look too good when he went down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I agree that Feillu is pretty good value. He has a solid chance of being placed if he's there for a sprint finish. Thanks for pointing out the Skybet 4-place each way offer Addpea. I had a bit of Feillu and Rojas on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattt123 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Hectic stage. Shame to see Brajko go, looked quite serious in the beginning, hate hit when riders fall on their head. Some bad Giro memories/images. I really think there is value on Gilbert 2.00 vs Thomas. Gilbert won't take crazy risks but just as he did with the intermediate he'll try to collect some points. I expect him top 15. Thomas should be between 20 and 30. Smaller bets: Hinault 2.00 outside top 10, Evans 2.20 vs Klodi, Thomas 1.90 vs Meersman, Horner 1.87 vs Gerdemann, and Dean 2.25 vs Renshaw. Just took Roy 2.60 vs Voeckler - value bet. Have taken Peta 3.60 vs Cav, good finish voor Petacchi, slighlty uphill, also have got Hagen 9.00 for top 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Fairly exciting finish there. Well done to those who took Rojas for top 3. Interesting to see Gilbert finish second too - definitely a contender for green now I'd say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattt123 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Gilbert indeed a serious contender for green now. Not sure what happened with Petacchi, lets his team work but then nowhere to be seen. Hagen went too early. Overall a good day. cannot complain. Evans 11 vs Kloden 12, gotta love those lucky wins. Tomorrow no Cav, another interesting Gilbert finish. Perfect for Rojas and Hushovd too, green will go between these 3 guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Oh yeah... Even with Brajkovic's exit (I hope Janez is alright), winners @4.6 and 8.2 on my other two sizeable bets mean I'm up big for the tour now :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luck7 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Noticed you could have got 4.5+ on Cav as the commentator thought it was Goss from HTC as they came up to the line Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Interesting to note yesterday that John Gadret lost over 4 mins and is now 7mins down. It's possible that he's really struggling, but I think it's also possible he is not caring about time so that he can on later stages have the latitude to be in breaks and go for stage wins and KOTM. I don't know which, but I'm excited to see how it unfolds. Hopefully it goes better than Brajkovic bet. As for today, this is one of those stages where I think it could play out in any number of ways. There's again reports of crosswinds and rains which could mean a severely reduced peleton that has spent the day forcing a split could contest the stage win, or it could be like yesterday where no splits happen and either the sprints who can go up the slope will win or it'll be a more stage 1 Gilbert win. Which is to say, I've no real idea how it will play out and have just done some more microstakes on long odds riders who I can see performing under certain scenarios. Matthew Goss @ 26 Sportsbet I don't really think the finish today is for Cavendish and though Goss hasn't done a thing so far, much to my disappointment, the truth is he was picked to compete on these types of finishes and I'm hoping that today is the day the Milan San Remo winner does just that. Daniel Oss @ 176 Sportsbet/Paddy Power Oss finished 9th yesterday which shows he isn't bad on the uphill sprints. He wont beat the big favourites in a sprint but we saw yesterday Voeckler and Roy get away and I can see a similar attempt to day. I believe Oss is a rider likely to try something like that and clearly he has the sprint to win from such a small break. Borut Bozic @ 151 Centrebet Bozic won the intermediate sprint yesterday and I expect he will feature soon in one of the sprints. He is a rider who can generally handle the uphill finishes and can also attack off the front in the last 10km. Mikhail Ignatiev @ 151 Centrebet Very aggressive rider who loves to attack at anytime. The finish is too steep for Galimzyanov and I can envision a rider like Ignatiev trying a bold move. Gerald Ciolek @ 280 Betfair With Boonen clearly injured I think Quickstep must look elsewhere for stage wins today. In years gone by this is the type of finish where Ciolek would have been talked about and I'm looking for this once very promising rider to spring a surprise. Sebastian Hinault @ 200 Betfair Top 5 result I think on stage 3 and also a 4th placed in the Vuelta last year when Gilbert won his 2nd stage. He's the type of rider who always presents nicely on the sprint of this type of stage profile and whilst he'll need some luck to actually beat Gilbert, I think he will be right there to take advantage of any miscalculations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 (error) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 ...(I decided I should PM you instead Crouch Potato) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leadbelly Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Bit late writing a bet up for today up as I'm just back from my morning cycle - pretty windy down here too ! Tour De France 2011 - Stage 5 - Alberto Contador vs Andy Schleck (Match-Ups) Gone for Schleck here at 3.00 with Bet365. Think there was only a handful of places between them on the only other sprint stage so far and I can't see it being too different today. More of a coin toss really as to which finishes ahead and therefore I'm thinking the odds should be closer to 2.00. Small stakes anyway and let's hope for some good racing. No luck with this yesterday - Schleck was about 15 places back. Fun days racing though. Here's Pescheux's analysis of the stage today from the official site for those who haven't checked it already The Tour’s longest stage is not flat. Because we are in Normandy, the route is rolling. We will have to wait and see what happens with any breakaway riders. Although it’s not ‘a wall’ of 10%, there is a decent climb 1.5km from the finish in front of the basilica in Lisieux. Some good riders are sure to lose contact there because the peloton is bound to split apart. If a breakaway group is still clear, not all of them will be able to stay with the pace at this point. A stage profile of this type does not suit the Tour’s favourites, and certainly not a pure climber such as Andy Schleck, but will suit a puncheur. Once again, just like the finish on the Mûr-de-Bretagne, the qualities of a rider in the mould of Philippe Gilbert will come to the fore on a stage like this First bet is Tour De France 2011 - Stage 6 - Sebastian Hinault vs Daniel Oss. Going for Oss at 3.4 with Bet365 - pretty close between these two yesterday 7th v 9th. Not sure what either of them will make of the little climb near the end, but got to be worth a punt at those odds. Second bet is Tour De France 2011 - Stage 6 - Geraint Thomas vs Rigoberto Uran. Not a serious bet really, but backing Uran at 3.4 - guess it depends on that little climb again. Thomas beat Uran in stage 1 (Uran was held up by crashes I think though), but Uran came out on top in the much steeper stage 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 ...(I decided I should PM you instead Crouch Potato) Cheers mate. For those wondering, it's basically just an article stating that Gadret is indeed having troubles recovering from his Giro efforts. He says he hopes to regain energy soon but that he will abandon if he doesn't. It's not great news in that he's struggling and does diminish this bet a little bit. If he can regain energy though, then I suppose still a small chance. Also interesting I thought was that Arroyo and Kiryienka are so far behind. Arroyo was involved in that first day crash so I think he's genuinely struggling, but I'm not sure if Kiryienka might be conserving energy for one of the upcoming breaks and perhas a KOTM bid? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana Oh Eddie, what a guy. 24 years old, and so well deserved. :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Unlucky with Goss there Crouchy mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.