Cycling 2011

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011 The descending continiue, what a nightmare this giro is for my play :) 2:5 -2.58 Giro -10.04 Overall 2011 Overall -60.89 H2H -27.53

[Mattt123]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011 Not sure what to expect of tomorrow, arrival uphill, but not very steep, only last K interesting but I expect big guns to save energy for Saturday. Only taking small bets tomorrow, Sat and Sun way more interesting. I'm expecting a new breakaway with 10-15 riders. My picks: Rujano 2.70 vs Contador Kiryienka 1.95 vs Niemiec Pirazzi 2.10 vs Samoilau Mentsjov 2.25 vs Kreuzi Tschopp 1.90 vs Sarmiento Lovkvist 2.10 vs Machado

[Mattt123]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011 Lost 7/7 bets, happy days, so guys in future please oppose the bets I'm suggesting :-) Tomorrow going to be brutal with terrible Finestre climb. Still long descend, and final climb isn't that difficult. For tomorrow, my picks: Nieve 1.90 vs Dupont (Dupont could never follow in high mountains) Anton 2.90 vs Gadret (I hope that Anton has rested his legs today) Field 2.20 vs Contador (expecting an early breakaway that will take 10+ mins) Cataldo 2.30 vs Arroyo (Cataldo more dynamic uphill) Kreuziger 2.10 vs Kruijswijck (50/50 level) Carrara 2.30 vs Sarmiento (Carrsra has more been reliable uphill) Hoogerland 1.75 vs Frank (Hoogerland will attack while Frank will be in the bus) Anton 1.95 vs Garzelli (in high mountain Anton still stronger)

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011 My Overall H2H scores are -0.37 Giro -10.41 Overall 2011 Overall -61.26 H2H -27.90 I made a short analyze specially for the Giro. Got a lot of close calls, but still the -10 is huge for my ambitions. The problem is that i just rely a lot on 50:50 chances in my view, but in couple of times the oddsmaker got some special info about the current form or plans of the guys for the special stage and he beats me in the research. The other problem is that i play too much H2H and probably must select just one or two of them, who i am thinking are with best odds. I will get a break just to make some bigger research. Good experience it was.

[alexmac]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011 I see the Tour de France guides for this year are coming out... Just bought mine and it has really got me excited for this years race. Anyone got any early thoughts...? I think Cav will be going all out for the Green Jersey this year. Anyone seen any early prices for him to do so?

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011 Find it very hard to Cav not winning Green this year but I doubt he is going to be much value to do so. Id be surprised if hes much bigger than 4/6.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011 I think it all depends on how the new points system will affect things as to whether Cavendish wins or not. Having not looked at the profile, I probably can't say if it's to his advantage in a distribution of stages sense, but if, as I expect they will, HTC chase all the early stage sprint points, then Cav will be so far ahead that it's unlikely anyone else will even try (unless Cav crashes on one of the finishes). Personally I hate the new points system. It's going to ruin the betting opportunities of some to many stages :@

[Mattt123]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011 Also can't see much value on Cav, and there are some early stages where he won't get points - the Mur of Bretagne arrival on Day 2 I believe - for example. I quite like Hagen, he could become the new Hushovd. But tbh still need to analyse stages and new points system in detail. For those who care about Dauphine ;-) My picks ITT Dauphine T. Martin 2.09 vs Wiggins 3U Zabriskie 2.85 vs Wiggins 2U Zabriskie 1.50 vs Westra 3U Vino 2.10 vs Brajko 4U Gesink 1.67 vs Sorenson 3U Grivko 2.30 vs Gusev 2U Knees 1.90 vs Kacheshkin 1U Pate 2.01 vs Vandborg 1U Purito vs Anker Sorenson 2.45 1U

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011

I think it all depends on how the new points system will affect things as to whether Cavendish wins or not. Having not looked at the profile, I probably can't say if it's to his advantage in a distribution of stages sense, but if, as I expect they will, HTC chase all the early stage sprint points, then Cav will be so far ahead that it's unlikely anyone else will even try (unless Cav crashes on one of the finishes). Personally I hate the new points system. It's going to ruin the betting opportunities of some to many stages :@

Only just read about the new points system and it looks suited to give Cav the green jersey. Hes an even bigger cert than I thought he was before, however given its a three week bike race I never like to go big on odds-on chances.

[Crouch Potato]

Only just read about the new points system and it looks suited to give Cav the green jersey. Hes an even bigger cert than I thought he was before' date=' however given its a three week bike race I never like to go big on odds-on chances.[/quote'] What you have to be mindful of though is those mountain stages where Thor went into the break to get six points will now yield him 20pts. Sure Cav will win a lot too but in tines where he does Thor can still come 2nd and collect some points. In those times where Thor gets points in the mountains Cav will get nothing. I still think he will win but this is the big danger for Cav that this adjusted system poses.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011

What you have to be mindful of though is those mountain stages where Thor went into the break to get six points will now yield him 20pts. Sure Cav will win a lot too but in tines where he does Thor can still come 2nd and collect some points. In those times where Thor gets points in the mountains Cav will get nothing. I still think he will win but this is the big danger for Cav that this adjusted system poses.

In my view though Thor will be too far behind to be worrying about gaining points in the mountains. I dont see him finishing as high as 2nd in a sprint finish. The only way Cav wont win green is if he falls off, gets ill, or gets disqualified again.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011 There are two strong points against Cavendish this year. First the rummors that he will going to Sky. For sure there were a strong offer and probably Cav accepted it, otherwise he and his team will not act like they do. Sky has a lot of sprinting talents to prove and will be against Cavendish, cos his big salary will threw them out. So guys like Davide Appolonio, Hagen, Dowing, Hayman, Henderson, Geremy Hunt, Chris Sutton, Ben Swift will not like to see Cav smashing everybody in the Tour. Secondary, this year will be much bigger battle in the sprint then last year. We don't have just Cav-Pettachi-Farrar. There are a lot of other teams that showed their intentions to put some score here or there. And Cav has some very big problems this season. His concentration is very bad and 3-4 times he missed the wheel.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011 Before every Tour it seems Cav isnt quite at his best and people write him off and then come the Tour his different class to everyone else. He may well be off to Sky but I dont agree with your argument at all. They will obviously try and stop him winning but I cant see them being anywhere near good enough to do so.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011

In my view though Thor will be too far behind to be worrying about gaining points in the mountains. I dont see him finishing as high as 2nd in a sprint finish. The only way Cav wont win green is if he falls off' date=' gets ill, or gets disqualified again.[/quote'] It doesn't have to be Thor though. Thor is just an example. Pettachi, Farrar, Haussler, Greipel can all try to do something similar. And given there are a number of uphill "sprint" finishes, here is a name that could win a lot of points on those stages and the sprint bonus points in the higher days: Phillipe Gilbert. Cav probably wins, but it's not that simple. Either way though, curse this new sprint bonus rule for killing the breakaway value of many stages :spank First few bets for me: Jani Brajkovic Top 10 Finish @ 5 Sportingbet The Radioshack leader isn't defined but Horner, Leipheimer and Kloden are all getting on in years. I expect at least one and maybe two Shack riders to get low Top 10 finishes, much like Horner did last year. The aforementioned are all around the $2.25 mark, whereas Jani is paying a very handsome $5. For me, his true odds are much closer to 1/3 -- he is a very good climber with much younger legs, a strong time trialist in a team of good time trialists, a factor that will be important given the Team Time Trial. Roman Kreuziger Top 10 Finish @ 9 Sportingbet Not sure if I was better off putting this money on Jani, but theres a touch of value here. The big concern, of course, is that he rode in the Giro. Backing up and competing in the Tour will be very hard, and Contador he is not. However, I am not convinced that Vinokourov will be the GC leader and I feel he may opt to go for stage wins instead. This would clearly open the way for Roman, who as a climber is more than capable of finishing Top 10 in the tour, as he has done in previous years. For me the odds are just a touch too long in that I don't think his goal is a high GC finish, but if he does or is forced to aim for one, then he has the ability to achieve it quite comfortably. Rigoberto Uran Top 10 Finish @ 21 Sportingbet Okay, I'll come right out and say it: I'm not sold on Wiggins as a contender. He had one good year where a chunk of TT Kms propped him up the leaderboard. He will still likely be the leader, but Uran is a very strong climber, comfortably in the Top 10-15 that will be in the tour. If for whatever reason Wiggins fails early, then I expect that he will then become Sky's GC rider. Even if he doesn't, I think there's a possibility that he might stay close enough on time that he could backdoor a Top 10 finish by being in one or two of the late mountain breaks, much in the same way Horner did last year. Not a big bet but the odds here are attractive.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011 It will be interesting to see what the teams do about the intermediate sprint. Im not sure it will make too much difference but we shall see. Having looked at the route its like they dont want sprinters to win stages. Cav is 9/5 to win over 4.5 and he could do but for me there is little margin for error, but its a bet to consider. Gilbert could be interesting given he could win 2 or 3 stages and it will be interesting to see what price he is although he could be more an each-way play as Im not sure he can win.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011 Okay, a few more. First, a stage winner bet: Luis Leon Sanchez - Over 0.5 Stage Wins @ 5.00 Bet365 LLS has had some real trouble adjusting to his new team but I still feel there is good value here. He has two previous stage wins in the tour, though he failed last year, featuring in just 1 break. What I thought was interesting is that last year he was the GC man, whereas in previous years he has been a support rider to Valverde. This year he will ride for Gesink, which should ensure that he wont feature on the GC. This will give him greater latitude to be in breaks, and with so many mountain stages in the final week, some of which are downhill finishes, will really play into his hands. He is a great descender and a reasonable time trialist (just won Spanish National TT Championship) so these kinds of stages will really suit him. I expect he will start some of these stages at $15-20 to win them, and I'm certain that on at least 1 stage this year he will trade at this price to win that stage. So to get it for him to win any stage should really offer strong value.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011 Polka Time John Gadret to win KOTM @ 41 WilliamHill Love this bet. WillHill limited my stake on this, which displeases me greatly. I barely got half on :wall Anyway, the KOTM points system this year will help the stronger climbers have a better chance, and Gadret is a great pick. Like Ricco (DQ'ed whilst leading KOTM) and Pellizotti before him, Gadret rode strongly in the Giro and is backing up the tour. He wont ride for the GC (Roche, JC Peraud) but will likely try for stage wins. Being french, KOTM is a logical goal for him, and if he loses time over the initial stages, then he will have both the latitude and the climbing ability to score points on the key stages for this competition. These odds are twice what every other book is offering btw. Super value! Super Super Super. Alexander Vinokourov @ 51 WilliamHill When he first returned Vino stated that KOTM might be one of his tour goals. He has since come out and said he wants to wear yellow this tour and is reportedly the GC leader for Astana. Whilst I wouldn't bank on this, it does indicate his mind is not on Polka. That said though, the new points system does favour a stronger climber, and Vino being so aggressive, he may win an early mountain stage and then find himself a defacto contender for this jersey.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011 Few more speculative Polka punts: Rein Taaramaee to win KOTM @ 51 WillHill Taaramaee featured in many of the breakaways last year and is a fairly able climber. Given this year's scoring favour a more pure climber, you have to question his ability to score points on the key mountain stages, but he's a developing rider and if he's made the right sort of preparation and progress he can do it. If he has the climbing legs then he is a big chance. Pierre Rolland to win KOTM @ 101 Willhill Rolland said a few years ago that he one day hopes to win this classification. He is an emerging rider and will certainly have the latitude to be in any mountaineous break he is capable of getting into. Again, concerns about his ability to score points on the key stages with the HC finishes, but if he can somehow snag a win on one of them (not at all out of the reckoning) then he will have a massive advantage and be in prime position to win this jersey. Rigoberto Uran to win KOTM @ 101 WillHill Uran is very nice climber and at these odds you have to take him I feel. If he ends up working for Wiggins (which is likely, but I'm not convinced Wiggins will be strong enough to warrant it) then he should lose enough time, which could potentially free him up to try to win from a break in one of the big mountain stages. If he does this, then KOTM is a very achievable target for him. In summary, in terms of ability I think he's very high up there in terms of those looking to win this category. Situationally he'd be very good if it weren't for Wiggins, but you pay money in this spot and at these odds in the hope that Wiggins performs poorly enough to let Uran ride for himself.

[9coconuts]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I see Hesjedal's odds to finish in the top 6 on Betfair are 29. Was his 7th place finish last year really that much of an abberation? I'd have thought almost any rider's chances of improving on their previous year's result were over 4%.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

I see Hesjedal's odds to finish in the top 6 on Betfair are 29. Was his 7th place finish last year really that much of an abberation? I'd have thought almost any rider's chances of improving on their previous year's result were over 4%.

Hesjedal climbed impressively after making good time on the cobblestone stage. There's no such stage this year. Additionally, the climbing stages are tougher, which is to his detriment. Furthermore, the competition is greater. Neither Basso nor Evans rode the Giro this year, as they did last year, so will now legitimately contend (both were non factors last year). Vinokourov will also ride for himself this year, after riding for Contador last year. Frank Schleck crashed out on the cobblestone stage and didn't finish. That's four riders last year who never figured in the GC who could easily come top 6. To finish top 6 Hesjedal will have to beat the following riders, all of whom I think are better climbers: Alberto Contador, Andy Schleck, Frank Schleck, Robert Gesink, Cadel Evans, Samuel Sanchez, Ivan Basso & Jurgen Van Den Broeck. Now, I do think that other riders will break into the top 6. But even then, the list of those potential riders includes: Wiggins, Martin, Velits, Brajkovic, Horner, Leipheimer, Kloden, Vinokourov, Kreuziger, Cunego. Keep in mind that Brajkovic, Horner, Leipheimer and Kloden all would have ridden for Lance Armstrong last year, and by the time it was clear Lance was going to suck, they were all too far down on the GC. Personally I'm not sold on the old trio of Radioshack, but do rate Brajkovic's chances of a good overall ride. Bottom line - can Hesjedal finish top 6? Yes. Is he likely to? No. Is his performance last year a good indicator? Not IMO. He's not an emerging rider in the way that say, Jurgen Van Den Broeck is. So there's no real reason to believe he's improved as a rider and will do better. I think the odds are probably fair, but I think there are better 29-1 shots out there.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Green Jersey Winner - Matthew Goss @ 51 Centrebet New points system this year. 20pts for sprint bonuses, 45pts for the win. To make things more variable, there are a number of uphill finishes -- these finishes, btw, are why Goss was selected in the tour team. I think Goss is more than capable of beating Gilbert on the stages which he's being favoured to win -- and even if he doesn't, I think he's a great chance of a 2nd or 3rd. Furthermore, there's talk that Goss will go for the intermediate sprints whilst Cavendish the sprint win. If Goss manages to get a high result on those sprints, then strategic circumstances can easily put Goss into the frame. As can a crash. All it takes is for Goss to do well on stages 1 and 4, and beat Cavendish in stage 2, and presto, Goss is your much higher ranked Points Classification rider. Once more, Cavendish is rumoured to be off to Sky, and HTC may disband if they can't find a sponsor. I don't see them choosing Cavendish over Goss IF Goss is much better placed to go for green. They need the publicity. Now, that is not to say Cavendish wont go into the tour as HTC's #1 man. But that could so, so, so easily change, either due to a crash or the very uncertain way that the new points system will play out in. Regardless, at odds of $51, you simply have to put down your money to find out. Honestly, Goss will compete very well with Gilbert on the Gilbert stages (Goss won Milan San Remo this year) and he is a faster sprinter for the flat stages, and Gilbert is as short as $7 to win this. If Goss is favoured by his team I think he's just about the Green Jersey favourite, and I think that the aforementioned factors could easily see this scenario come about.

[Labrador]

Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011

Polka Time John Gadret to win KOTM @ 41 WilliamHill Love this bet. WillHill limited my stake on this, which displeases me greatly. I barely got half on :wall Anyway, the KOTM points system this year will help the stronger climbers have a better chance, and Gadret is a great pick. Like Ricco (DQ'ed whilst leading KOTM) and Pellizotti before him, Gadret rode strongly in the Giro and is backing up the tour. He wont ride for the GC (Roche, JC Peraud) but will likely try for stage wins. Being french, KOTM is a logical goal for him, and if he loses time over the initial stages, then he will have both the latitude and the climbing ability to score points on the key stages for this competition. These odds are twice what every other book is offering btw. Super value! Super Super Super.

Thanks for flagging this up:ok. Hills are 8/1 on Gadret winning over 0.5 stages which is also well above other firms who have already priced up and looks worth a crack too.

[9coconuts]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Thanks for the comprehensive answer Crouch Potato. It's fun to watch if you can find a GC long shot. And thanks for the Brajkovic top 10 tip. I couldn't get 4/1, but I have backed him (the only proper bet I'vemade so far). There are bits of money on Betfair as high as 50 against Peter Velits finishing top 6.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

Thanks for the comprehensive answer Crouch Potato. It's fun to watch if you can find a GC long shot. And thanks for the Brajkovic top 10 tip. I couldn't get 4/1, but I have backed him (the only proper bet I'vemade so far). There are bits of money on Betfair as high as 50 against Peter Velits finishing top 6.

Velits is hard to gauge, but I think has the potential. Did very well in coming 3rd in the Vuelta last year and it's only really Tony Martin who causes you to question who will be HTC's GC leader. Team Classification Winner - Movistar @ 101 Centrebet

Movistar are one of those teams who always seem to take pride in this classification. Last year in the Vuelta they went Head to head with Katusha, whilst in the tour last year they battled favourites Radioshack for the honour. Their lack of a GC contender doesn't really hurt them here because what they have is 4-5 reasonably good climbers, who if they can get into the breaks can help them enormously in this classification. Guitirrez, Arroyo, Somailau and Kiriyenka are all very adept at getting themselves into the breaks and if they can ride solidly on the high mountain stages they will have a chance. I wouldn't at all be surprised if this becomes a race in two between Radioshack and Movistar, and whilst I fully expect Radioshack to win that race, these odds can't be ignored.

[Mattt123]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Hi Crouch Potato, cheers for your info. I'm going to take Movistar vs Europcar head to head, still I don't think there's a single chance they'll win the competition. This is team: Arroyo, Erviti, Faria da Costa, Gutierrez, Intxausti, Kiryienka, Rojas, Samoileau and Ventoso. What worries me about this team, is that the strongest guys: Samoileua, Ventoso, Kiryienka and Arroyo also rode the Giro, and even in their best possible form they won't make it in top 10 here, I really think that top 20 is the max here. Especially Kiriyienka has raced a lot, so this could become too much, while Arroyo disappointed in Giro. Lets not forget that Movistar is without Tondo and Soler for the obvious reasons, those 2 would have been their leaders here. Intxausti has never done the Tour, and his preparation hasn't been great after what happened with Tondo, he was in the car. Erviti, Faria da Costa, Gutierrez and Rojas could do top 50, especially Rojas in a great form, and he could be an interesting outsider for the green jersey here. but honestly I'd be surprised if Movistar would finish top 5 in the end. Still nothing wrong with them proving me to be wrong. I terms of team GC I also like Saxobank vs Euskaltel, and especially Quick Step against Omega Pharma, besides Van den Broeck Lotto has only Vanendert he could possible finish in top 30, I believe that the great Gilbert will chose for the 'grupetto' on a couple of occasions. Rest of team just 'rouleurs' and workers.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

Hi Crouch Potato, cheers for your info. I'm going to take Movistar vs Europcar head to head, still I don't think there's a single chance they'll win the competition.

No worries. I certainly don't think they'll win either, but I can see a number of circumstances where they'll trade in the 7-10 range and would kick myself if I weren't on. One for tomorrow. Alexander Vinokourov to win Stage 1 @ $34 TAB NSW Vinokourov has openly stated he wants to wear Yellow and this stage caters to his abilities very well. The last 2km goes up at a gradient of about 5% which is the perfect place for him to attack. Gilbert is a big favourite and obviously and deservedly so. Chances are he will win, but everyone will be marking him, and a rider like Vino is so stubborn and aggressive that he will try to beat the Belgian at his own game. Vino has won classics before and this finish has undertones of a classic finish, and he really does want to wear the Maillot Jaune, so I expect he will try.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011

This is team: Arroyo' date=' Erviti, Faria da Costa, Gutierrez, Intxausti, Kiryienka, Rojas, Samoileau and Ventoso. What worries me about this team, is that the strongest guys: Samoileua, Ventoso, Kiryienka and Arroyo also rode the Giro,[b'] and even in their best possible form they won't make it in top 10 here, I really think that top 20 is the max here. Especially Kiriyienka has raced a lot, so this could become too much, while Arroyo disappointed in Giro. Lets not forget that Movistar is without Tondo and Soler for the obvious reasons, those 2 would have been their leaders here. Erviti, Faria da Costa, Gutierrez and Rojas could do top 50, especially Rojas in a great form, and he could be an interesting outsider for the green jersey here. but honestly I'd be surprised if Movistar would finish top 5 in the end. I terms of team GC I also like Saxobank vs Euskaltel, and especially Quick Step against Omega Pharma, besides Van den Broeck Lotto has only Vanendert he could possible finish in top 30, I believe that the great Gilbert will chose for the 'grupetto' on a couple of occasions. Rest of team just 'rouleurs' and workers.

Apologies if I am wrong here, but I just wanted to mention this just in case I'm not. The Team Classification is calculated by adding the times of the best 3 riders from that team on each stage, not the times of the 3 best placed riders from that team at the end of the tour. So if a team can get 2 riders into the break and that break survives, then that team is going to gain time on other teams who don't also have 2 men in the decisive break. This is the main reason I backed Movistar, because they are so good at getting into breaks every day. It's also why I'd be careful of backing Saxobank against Euskaltel - the Carrot tops will look for stage wins via breaks, and gain time on days when the break survives, as Saxo will ride to protect Contador rather than getting into the breaks with the same frequency as Euskaltel. Again, apologies if you knew this already, but I just got the impression you thought final GC standings were a factor, and thought I'd point it out just in case you didn't realize.

[BelgianPunter]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 My bets: R. Feillu- Boonen 1 @ 1.52 (6,5/10) Boonen is not so good this year, I don't see him sprinting for the victory tommorow. R. Feillu has showed in P-N that he can ride top 10 in sprints. Ventoso voor Duque @ 1.77 (5/10) Ventoso has showed he can sprint on a little mountain in The tour of Italy, Duque is not a sprinter imo. Vinoukourov voor Cunego @ 2.76 (6/10) Amazing odd, no reasoning need for this one

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Here are my thoughts on this years Tour Yellow Jersey First thing to say is that it will be a massive shock if Alberto Contador or Andy Schleck do not win this year’s Tour de France. There is obviously a lot of controversy about Contador being here, and even if he did win he could easily lose the crown when the doping hearing is held after the race. Schleck should really have claimed the race last year, and his chain coming off obviously didn’t help, but it was a little disappointing not to see him attack Contador, who was not at his best. Perhaps if Andy’s brother Frank had not of had to retire early on he may well have won. The two riders will be able to gang up on Contador this year as his team is pretty weak, and given it’s a real climbers tour, Andy looks to have a massive chance of winning his first Tour de France. Contador rode the Giro d’Italia this year and won it at a canter, but it was a very tough route and it is very hard to follow a good effort in the Giro with a good effort in the Tour. The last person to win both was Marco Pantani, and he was on a collection of drugs. Given he won it so easily, perhaps it didn’t take that much out of him, but given the massive price difference between the two, I am happy to take Contador on. Stan James have an enhanced win market and Schleck is 12/5 which looks value to me in what I consider to be a two horse race. Without the top two Behind Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador it is pretty wide open as to who will join them on the podium. The great thing in this market is that the each-way terms are 1/4 odds the first three with Paddy Power, thus the cyclist probably only needs to finish in the top five to get a return. It’s for that reason I am going to have four selections, two big ones and two riskier. If I had to name the person I thought would finish third in Paris it would be Robert Gesink. The course this year looks perfectly suited to him as he is a pure climber and given how well he rode last year when finishing sixth, he really should be up to improving on that this time, especially as he is the Rabobank team leader. He is 5/1 with Paddy Power. Another superb rider in the mountains is last year’s fourth Samuel Sanchez. He will lose time in the team time trail which will make it hard for him to end up on the podium but he will gain time on a lot of his rivals in this market in the mountains and for that reason I am keen to have him onside as I think it will be enough to see him finish in the top five. Paddy Power have him priced at 6/1. I am surprised Frank Schleck is available at 11/1 in this market as he is a strong climber in his own right and although he is going to be mainly helping his brother win the yellow jersey, that should naturally lead to a high placing in the overall and a top 5 finish would not surprise. The final pick is a little more risky but I think Janez Brajkovic can have a very good Tour this year. He had his first experience of the race last year when there to support Lance Armstrong and thus he had to ride within himself. Although Radioshack have three other top 10 candidates, it looks like going in to the Tour they are making Brajkovic their number one GC hope. Paddy Power have him priced up at 20/1 and that is worth taking. Sportingbet offer 11/4 to finish in the top 10 and that is a really attractive bet, especially as Blue Square only go 9/10. I’ve got a feeling that the likes of Ivan Basso and Cadel Evans aren’t quite good enough anymore to follow the top contenders in the high mountains so I am happy to oppose them. Bradley Wiggins is in superb form going into this year’s Tour and I can easily see him gaining a top 10 place after his woeful showing last time around, although he is too short to back. Green Jersey It is one of the biggest mysteries in sport how Mark Cavendish has not won the Green Jersey at the Tour de France and he will be hoping to put that right in 2011. They have changed the points system this year so stage winners get a much bigger gain on the people who finish behind them. The other thing that has changed is that there is only one intermediate sprint on each stage with 20 points being available to the winner of those. In some ways these changes help Cavendish but it is hard to fully tell how they will affect the points competition until we see them in practice. There is a maximum of seven stages that suit Cavendish, and given how far clear he is of the rest, I reckon he can win another five stages just like he did last time. People claim he isn’t in great form, but it has been the same in previous years and come the Tour he has blown the opposition away, often winning by some distance. He primes himself to be ready for July and if he claims those five victories you would hope that would be enough to secure the green jersey. On stages where he can’t win, like Stage 1, I expect to see him race for the intermediate sprint points as if that is his stage finish of the day. Paddy Power and William Hill go 7/5 on him wining and I think that’s a pretty fair price. Paddy Power also go 9/4 on him winning over 4.5 stages, whilst we can cover ourselves by having a saver on him winning 3-4 stages at 6/5 with Blue Square. Given the fact there are three tough finishes in the first week it would be wise to back someone who is a capable climber but can also sprint and although Philippe Gilbert is expected to possibly win three stages in week one, I can’t see him picking up too many points elsewhere, but Edvald Boasson Hagen is someone who could. He is capable of high placings on the tough finishes in the first week and as he demonstrated last year, he can finish pretty high in the sprint finishes as well. At 15/1 with bet365, he is worth a small each-way bet. King Of The Mountains This is a competition that I have left well alone in recent years because it has become such a lottery with a rider who ends up picking up a load of points in a breakaway winning it. They have also changed the way points are won in this competition which makes it less likely for that to happen and the fact that Alberto Contador is favourite shows that it may well fall to one of the main yellow jersey contenders. Despite that I still think it’s a very tricky market to find the winner of and at this stage I am happy to swerve making a selection.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I love me the KOTM market. It's always the market with the highest price winner :lol Last two bets for Stage 1: Grega Bole @ 101 Centrebet Bole is a sprinting hybrid who has the potential to perform well on this finish. Again, Gilbert is a big favourite, but if I have to make a list of a dozen or so riders who could upset, then Bole would certainly be on it. Not a great chance of winning but I feel 50's is a more realistic price, so will take the 3 figures. Jerome Pineau to Place @ 29 Centrebet In 2008 the first stage was similar in profile, with Valverde winning and Pineau in 2nd. Like that stage this profile could play to his characteristics and I feel these odds for a top 3 spot are very nice as Gilbert can't take them all and behind him it could go a number of ways.