Crouch Potato Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Unlucky with Goss there Crouchy mate. Thanks Kev. Not a very pretty tour this year I'm afraid, made worse by the fact that I was actually going to take Eddie, until his odds moved from 21 to 15 and I passed it up :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Aye, unlucky. Nice call on Goss though, looked a good bet with those odds. I feel like a fun bet tomorrow. Stage 7: Nationality of most combative rider French @ 2.02 - Unibet I guess this isn't the most popular market to bet on, but I think there's value here, actually. Firstly, let's have a look at the winners so far: Stage 1: QUEMENEUR Perrig (FRA) Stage 2: - Stage 3: DELAGE Mickaël (FRA) Stage 4: ROY Jérémy (FRA) Stage 5: GUTIERREZ José Ivan (ESP) Stage 6: MALORI Adriano (ITA) Basically, three Frenchies in the first three stages, which is hardly surprising. The riders and their teams like some TV-time. Those three stages looked like this: Ie, they look destined for a grouping up before the finish - the chances of a break-away going in are slim. Now, looking at the two last stages: ..and the prospect of a break-away going in seems quite a bit more likely. This means, then, that more people will attempt a break away for more than just 15 minutes of fame. Now, look at tomorrow's stage. Flat flat flat flat flat. Looks absolutely destined for a group-finish, and I cannot imagine many riders have ambitions of breaking away and winning on a stage like this. There is no way the sprint teams will let a break-away go in, and there's no way Garmin Cervelo will let Hushovd lose the yellow on this stage. It should be easy peasy to catch someone here. But then again, if you're French, you get that added bonus of being TV, as we saw in the early stages. And if you're French, you're probably on a French team, and the people who pay for said French team would want their logo plastered into people's brains for as long as possible. I think the chances of a French "win" here is definitely over 50% - worth a bet, I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Ive backed Rojas at 9/4 with Stan James to win the Green Jersey as I think he is the main opposition to Cav and is a hell of a lot shorter with everyone else. He is a better sprinter than Gilbert and I just wonder how high Gilbert is going to be able to finish at the end of stages now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luck7 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 The guy on Eurosport gave the wrong winner again, the guy who I just read has won wasn't the guy he said as they went over the line?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Should be a Cav stage but taking this one as a spec: Ben Swift @ 81 Centrebet I think today Swift will be the man that Sky back and EBH in particular will be more than willing to repay the favour of yesterday and lead out Swift. In Thomas, EBH and Swift Sky have a really fast train at their disposal and could upset a HTC train that isn't as crisp as it once was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Today's stage reminds me how much the first week of the tour has improved. It used to be too predictable and repetitive when the finishes were all flat; I think it's a far better watch with all the variety now. We already know a lot about the riders' relative capabilities in a flat sprint, and that's reflected in the odds. It's hard to find much value at this stage. Cav's a worthy favourite IMO, but I wouldn't be shocked if Farrar took it down. There may be a shade of value in Feillu or Rojas for places (I think that's because, preposterously, there's still money for Petacchi), but nothing to write home about. One other thought: was it a mistake to back Brajkovic (or any GC or KOM contender) before the tour? I mean, Crouch Potato made a good (but unlucky) bet getting the early odds on Brajkovic, but once the odds have stabilised, is it a better strategy to wait a week or so before betting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Also, does anyone know why there's so much money for Greipel to finish in the top 3 today on Betfair? I know he was complaining about working for Gilbert in sprints, but I'm still surprised by the support for him on there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Today's stage reminds me how much the first week of the tour has improved. It used to be too predictable and repetitive when the finishes were all flat; I think it's a far better watch with all the variety now. We already know a lot about the riders' relative capabilities in a flat sprint, and that's reflected in the odds. It's hard to find much value at this stage. Cav's a worthy favourite IMO, but I wouldn't be shocked if Farrar took it down. There may be a shade of value in Feillu or Rojas for places (I think that's because, preposterously, there's still money for Petacchi), but nothing to write home about. One other thought: was it a mistake to back Brajkovic (or any GC or KOM contender) before the tour? I mean, Crouch Potato made a good (but unlucky) bet getting the early odds on Brajkovic, but once the odds have stabilised, is it a better strategy to wait a week or so before betting? But Id imagine he probably got shorter as he gained a bit of time over some of his rivals. If I had of chosen to I could have layed of my bet on Schelck after the TTT because he was much shorter. I guess sometimes it pays to wait but you never know whats going to happen on the Tour as this week has proven and sometimes it works in your favour and other times it doesnt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 The guy on Eurosport gave the wrong winner again' date=' the guy who I just read has won wasn't the guy he said as they went over the line??[/quote'] Cav touched a high of 50 on Betfair in the closing stages on Wednesday thanks to the Eurosport commentator making that mistake. I was watching ITV so I knew what was going on and to be honest its pretty poor that a British guy cant recognise Cav. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Two of the four in the break-away are french.. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 TALABARDON gets Most combative. Nice work Jens. Kreuziger and Uran both delayed by over 3mins due to the crash today, to join Brajkovic the other day and Goss' stage 1 crash. What a **** of a tour this has turned out to be. Leipheimer and Hesjedal losing 3mins also, with Horner now nowhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Cheers, not a bad result to come home to! Absolutely gutted for Bradley Wiggins though, such a shame :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Yeah it is a massive shame for Wiggins as I was really looking forward to see how he would get on this year. HTC were superb today it was clear Cav was going to win from a long way out. Interesting Pettachi managed to get involved today. What happened to Farrar? I had no sound on the pics so wasnt able to hear anything that was said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Yeah it is a massive shame for Wiggins as I was really looking forward to see how he would get on this year. HTC were superb today it was clear Cav was going to win from a long way out. Interesting Pettachi managed to get involved today. What happened to Farrar? I had no sound on the pics so wasnt able to hear anything that was said. He went down in the same crash that took out both Wiggins and Horner. Was never really a chance to get back into the main field and was about 3mins behind when the sprint took place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 So Uran today lost 3'09 and his team leader. I've no idea what Sky's plans will be (they are a very strange team, and their decision to have everyone wait for Wiggins seemed very odd), but I do think Uran might now target a stage win and thus become prominent in the KOTM. I've already taken this pre-tour but I've increased my stake now that Wiggins is gone. Anyway, onto tomorrow where I think the break will win. Sprinters teams can't win, Hushovd realistically can't keep yellow, and well, Gilbert, I don't think he's a big enough favourite for Lotto to do all the chasing. And why would Leopard or BMC chase? Taking yellow now surely isn't that smart a move, so I don't see who chases down the break. It's the angle I'm going with anyway. Johnny Hoogerland @ 77 Sportsbet Will want to keep his KOTM Jersey and this stage offers a few points. A very aggressive rider and I think will offer good value. David Moncoutie @ 67 Bet365 This is the type of stage where you expect Moncoutie to be quite active. He is also a perenial KOTM contender and if he harbours these ambitions again tomorrow is a must contest stage for him. Jerome Pineau @ 67 Bet365 Only 1'15 down but I don't think this hurts him. He's not a threat so if he takes yellow it's not a big deal for the GC boys. With Boonen gone too Quickstep could use a morale boost and what better way than to take yellow? Chavanel looks a bit beat up to me so looking toward Pineau. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Sandy Casar @ 106 Sportsbet Casar loves to be in a break and generally features in 2-3 breaks per tour, with a couple of wins and a host of 2nd placed finishes. This feels like a break stage and has a cat 3 finish, so at these odds of course I'm on Sandy. Amets Txurruka @ 156 Sportsbet Euskaltel will no doubt look to be in the break. I'm not sure if it will be this man or Egoi Martinez that goes in it, but I like Txurruka more as a rider and I like these odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 He went down in the same crash that took out both Wiggins and Horner. Was never really a chance to get back into the main field and was about 3mins behind when the sprint took place. Cheers for that I didnt get to see the crash either. Like you say it seemed odd to bring everyone back for Wiggins especially when he didnt even carry on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Taking quite a few here, more than I actually planned. But I really do feel that this should be a breakaway win -- we've had none succeed so far and I can't think why anyone bar Lotto would seriously chase. Might be wrong, but I'm seeing some big odds on riders who are often in tour breaks and just feel compelled to take them given my opinion of the stage. Simon Gerrans @ 156 Sportsbet Bookies seem to rate Uran for this stage but I feel Gerrans is a better bet. For once, he is 6x bigger odds, but he is also much further back. Right now Uran is out of contention but he's probably not far enough back for the peleton to be comfortable to let him in a break with a big lead (due to his climbing abilities). Gerrans though is well back and is a good winner, having won a stage on all grand tours. Egoi Martinez @ 241 Sportsbet I'll bet my bottom dollar that an Euskaltel rider will be in the break today and Martinez is a perennial rider for tour breaks. Don't overly rate his winning abilities but odds still too big to ignore. Linus Gerdemann @ 241 Sportsbet That he rides for Leopard Trek is the big negative here, but at these odds I'm still backing. This is the kind of stage that Linus loves to attack on and with the finish only a category 3 climb and Andy not in yellow I don't think it's imperative that he ride in the peleton. Will likely trade as one of the favs if he does make the break and these odds really are too good not to have a small something on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 There may be a shade of value in Feillu or Rojas for places (I think that's because' date=' preposterously, there's still money for Petacchi), but nothing to write home about.[/quote'] Once again, I prove my thorough lack of expertise. What I learned from Petacchi's result yesterday is that completely flat stages are a different kettle of fish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 On the King of the Mountains competition, I see there are a maximum of 9 points available to someone today. If my calculations are right, 292 points is the maximum possible over the four stages with mountain top finishes (out of 402 for the tour altogether). Stage seventeen has 24 points, thirteen has 23, and tomorrow's has 23. That's 362 of 402 on only seven stages. I don't know whether or not it's possible for a non-elite climber to take the jersey, but if they're going to try, tomorrow might be the day when we first see them. I'm not sure the rewards are high enough today. The fundamental problem with KOM is that the best climber is usually too busy trying to win the tour to think about the competition. I don't think it would be entertaining to watch if the new rules caused the jersey to fall to Alberto or Andy by default. I hope it's won by someone who focuses on it. I think that's more important than the jersey going to a great climber. We'll see how it pans out... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Oh dear, 9 men in the break and I didn't pick a single one of them. Another awful performance by me :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I think its really hard to find the winners on stages like this. Yes if you manage to get lucky you get paid off and you dont have to find many to make it pay but in my view there are easier ways to make money on the Tour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 These stages are actually the ones that I've found most profitable over the years. The favourite is always double digits and based on GC time, stage profile and rider abilities it's much easier to find value. I just haven't found it this year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Still early days Crouchie mate. You know the saying about form and class :ok. I'm sure you'll fire them in before we reach the Champs Elysees ;). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 These stages are actually the ones that I've found most profitable over the years. The favourite is always double digits and based on GC time' date=' stage profile and rider abilities it's much easier to find value. I just haven't found it this year![/quote'] Each to there own I personnaly think its a little bit like finding a needle in a haystack so thats why I leave alone most of the time. If it is double digits the field then that tells you how hard it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Superb riding by Hushovd there to stay in yellow :clap Very much enjoyed the finish to that stage too. Attacks everyone and a massive struggle on the road in. From a non betting point of view this is undoubtedly one of the most interesting tours in years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Hopefully tomorrow goes better, though early signs suggest not. The odds for tomorrow's stage are much lower, so likely to be less selections. Thomas Voeckler @ 17 Paddy Power Voeckler loves to attack and tomorrow's stage is right up his alley. I expect him to try quite hard to be in the break for this stage. David Moncoutie @ 81 Paddy Power Moncoutie loves to be in breaks over the mountains and as a perennial KOTM contender this is the type of stage I expect him to try and be in the break. Proven winner on grand tour level and odds far too big IMO. Sandy Casar @ 41 Paddy Power Casar is no stranger to tour breaks. He has been in dozens over the years, with a couple of stages wins and a ton more minor places. Tomorrow's stage is one where I expect Sandy to feature. David Arroyo @ 81 Paddy Power Arroyo was involved in the first stage crash so a few question marks about his condition. He is well down which is a sign that he is struggling a bit, but with a full week having gone by since that crash I think he might well try for the break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Taking Gerrans again too: Simon Gerrans @ 101 Centrebet Gerrans is a proven winner on grand tour stages and I think he will be a good rider for Sky to put in the break. He's a decent climber, strong on uphill finishes and well down on GC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Move D Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Hopefully tomorrow goes better, though early signs suggest not. The odds for tomorrow's stage are much lower, so likely to be less selections. Thomas Voeckler @ 17 Paddy Power Voeckler loves to attack and tomorrow's stage is right up his alley. I expect him to try quite hard to be in the break for this stage. David Moncoutie @ 81 Paddy Power Moncoutie loves to be in breaks over the mountains and as a perennial KOTM contender this is the type of stage I expect him to try and be in the break. Proven winner on grand tour level and odds far too big IMO. Sandy Casar @ 41 Paddy Power Casar is no stranger to tour breaks. He has been in dozens over the years, with a couple of stages wins and a ton more minor places. Tomorrow's stage is one where I expect Sandy to feature. David Arroyo @ 81 Paddy Power Arroyo was involved in the first stage crash so a few question marks about his condition. He is well down which is a sign that he is struggling a bit, but with a full week having gone by since that crash I think he might well try for the break. Got a couple in the break today! Hope one gets up for you :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Carnage again and yet another top 10 contender bites the dust. Its looking like Gesink is really stuggle after his crash the other day as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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