9coconuts Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Money still kicking around on Betfair against Sanchez winning KOM. Think people don't realise he has the most points and there are no more to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I guess he could still crash or be disqualified in some way, but 1/20 is a great price that Sammy finishes the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 People were laying Sanchez at 1.1! I can't believe Velits decided the KOM. Nice finish for those of you who backed Sanchez in a proper way :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I believe there is some doubt as to whether the points were earnt on the finish line or before the finish, in which case it'd be Andy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelgianPunter Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I believe there is some doubt as to whether the points were earnt on the finish line or before the finish' date=' in which case it'd be Andy.[/quote'] Before the finish line on 400m I think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Really? Thanks for that. I've layed off at 1.02 then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 I believe there is some doubt as to whether the points were earnt on the finish line or before the finish' date=' in which case it'd be Andy.[/quote'] Confirmed Sanchez according to tour site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Labrador Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 One more KOTM bet. Still really like Gadret, but the price on this one I couldn't resist. Sammy Sanchez to win KOTM @ 41 Centrebet A subject touched earlier and one I'm acting on purely because of price. Sanchez is now 2 and a half minutes behind Andy Schleck and whilst he wont be allowed to go in earlier breaks, if he attacked the lead group up the final climb I don't see Andy following. Given Andy's lead I suspect he will strictly be watching Contador, so I see some minor benefits in the current time gaps. Furthermore, because Contador is so far behind, I can see him attacking Andy a lot. If, for instance, Sanchez attacks first, and Contador bridges to him alone, then we have seen that in such situations Contador will let the other ride take the win and thus the main KOTM points. Purely a value bet but I'm seeing some favourable situationals potentially helping this one. Cheers, Crouchy, great shout:ok. That's the second KOM I've backed thanks to you in the last 3 years:D. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Cheers' date=' Crouchy, great shout:ok. That's the second KOM I've backed thanks to you in the last 3 years:D.[/quote'] Ah yes, Franco Pellizotti, who I also think was 41. Maybe I should just back those odds only! To be honest, I'm just happy to have tipped something that's won. :lol Quite frankly I've been on awful form, and I dare say you'd more than likely be worse off if you've followed me this tour. Good price on Sanchez though and he has just pulled me out of a decent loss and into a decent profit. Chance for a bit more tomorrow with Rolland and Taaramae set to fight it out for the White Jersey Classification. Rolland currently leads by 1'33 and the ITT is over 42.5km. In this year's 41km ITT in the Dauphine Taaramae beat Rolland by 2'57 and in this year's 27km ITT in Paris Nice Taaramae beat Rolland by 2'07. If that holds to form Taaramae is looking good, but it's quite possible Rolland was soft pedalling in those time trials and the ITT in the 3rd week of a tour is often about so much more than ITT ability. I dare say the 2.3 that Bet365 are currently offering on Taaramae looks to have a shade of value to it though. Will be interested to see the odds tomorrow. I wonder if Edvald Boasson Hagen is going to give it a go... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Amazingly after I said I would leave it alone at the start of the Tour I ended up backing the winner as well. Just wish I had of tipped him at the start as he was the one I was tempted by as I said I thought he had a good chance earlier on here. I guess Im probably going to have to lay off a little bit of my Andy bet to win the Tour, something I have avoided doing so far. I actually still think he can win especially as he rode a pretty decent final time trail last year and Evans is sure to have what happened in 2008 in the back of his mind. Also he has done an awful lot of chasing in the last couple of days and that could make his mark. Got to say Im shocked that Cancellara is as big as 5/6 to win tomorrow. He hasnt done an awful lot from what I have seen (granted I probably havent seen as much of the stages as others on here when I was away) and this has to have been his aim the whole Tour. Its hard to see him blowing it unless something funny happens. Millar has been warn out from the Giro and Martin has been working very hard for Cav so Cancellara should have little to beat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedDevil92 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 H2H Cancellara-Tony Martin 1 1,35 bet365 H2H Roland-Basso 2 1,75 bet365 Cancellara is the best in a time trial.Martin didn't show anything. Roland has won today's race and should be tired.Basso is capable of beating him. GL:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedDevil92 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 What do you think about Danielson H2H against Coppel?Danielson is in the top 10 and should be better?I don't know his skills so I am asking you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leadbelly Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Cracking days racing. Nice one Crouchy with the KOTM win. Can't really see anything of interest in the markets for tomorrow's stage - might just have an interest bet nearer the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorro Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 But Rolland seems to have the best condition and has the white jersey to defend. I'm not so sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorro Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 By the way I think a bet on millar for the ITT would be good value. Gets 23.0 at bet365. Canc is def a favourite but 23 seems high for a slight underdog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 By the way I think a bet on millar for the ITT would be good value. Gets 23.0 at bet365. Canc is def a favourite but 23 seems high for a slight underdog. Millar seems to be feeling the effects of the Giro so I think he will struggle to get a top 3 place tomorrow. Prehaps Contador might be able to do something but predicting how hes going to fair on this Tour has been very hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Looks like that there will be rain for the stage today. Forecasts seem to suggest the better conditions to be from around 11am to 1pm, though few things in sport are more volatile than the weather. Cancellara is the obvious favourite and his start time is predicted to be in the best of the conditions. However he's still not looked all that on form to me and he did mention on Twitter at the start of the tour that he was struggling with sinus problems. I imagine they have cleared but who knows. Regardless, with the weather so volatile I'm not going to back Cancellara and much to the chagrin of Addpea I'm sure, I will instead take a couple of riders who I believe have the ability to take the win in the event that weather favours them and Cancellara isn't on top form. Mikhail Ignatiev @ 81 E/W 1/3 1-2 The Russian time trial champion is usually very strong in this discipline and was 3rd in the ITT in 2009, just 12 seconds off Cancellara. Ignatiev starts 50mins before Cancellara so would probably require the Swiss having an off day, but I'm not sold on his form in this race. Also, if the Weather does play true to form, then the other stage win contenders will be more affected than Ignatiev, putting him in with a good chance of a place. Peter Velits @ 120 Betfair Velits starts much later than Cancellara and if the weather holds true to forecasts he wont win. However, if things change a little bit (as weather so easily can) and conditions suit him I think he is a chance. In the final ITT of the Vuelta last year he got the better of the weather and beat Fabian Cancellara. Velits looked good yesterday, coming home 4th and showed plenty of energy, attacking the Schleck group and out sprinting them on the finish line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Ignatiev bet is with Bet365 btw. For those interested, here is the start times list: http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/2872 And here is the weather forecast: http://m.accuweather.com/en/fr/grenoble/136555/hourly-weather-forecast/136555?day=1 Also worth mentioning that this is the exact same course that was ridden in the Dauphine this year. Tony Martin won that ahead of Wiggins and Boasson Hagen -- Cancellara didn't participate. Taaramae took almost 3mins out of Rolland on that particular day so here's hoping for a repeat. For those looking for the full results of that day: http://www.roadcycling.com/articles/2011-Criterium-du-Dauphine-Results---Stage-3-Time-Trial_004361.shtml Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leadbelly Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Cheers for those links Crouchy. Had a quick look at a couple of other weather sites to check and typical of weathermen (and weatherwomen) they give slightly different views http://france.meteofrance.com/france/meteo?PREVISIONS_PORTLET.path=previsionsville/381850 suggests brighter in the afternoon and the offical site says By early morning, showers are observed. In the morning, a cloudy weather still remains with occasional showers, particularly between Vizille et St.-Martin-d’Uriage. Until midday, fog hill is likely on Uriage’s hill. The last showers are expected at 3 pm. Then bright intervals develop and the weather will be dry. In the morning, asphalt is wet, dries up at noon, and dry for the leaders. Winds : Light northerly/northwesterly wind at 5/10 kph with some gusts at 15/20 kph Temperatures : Grenoble 9 am : 16 degrees 12 am : 18 degrees 3 pm : 25 degrees 6 pm : 22 degrees 2 or 3 degrees colder at Saint-Martin-d’Uriage Some rather contradictory statements in that quote - so who knows. Anyway in case its wet for the earlier starters and drys up for the leaders I'm gonna have a punt on Contador (16 with Bet365). Doesn't realistically have a chance of getting a podium I think unless Frank totally messes up, and I'm not sure he'd care about a podium, but he would care about getting the stage win (hasn't got one yet this tour). So the motivation is there to go for the win. Yes he's probably still feeling the knee injury a bit and will be tired after yesterdays efforts, but so will everyone else. Here's hoping for early rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 You can do what you want Crouch if you added up all these big priced bets youve had over the stages it probably comes to more than you think. Prehaps you might get lucky today but it isnt the way I like to punt. I partly think your rant the other day about Thor winning again was because the lack of breakaways meant you have made no money on the stages. All things being equal I just think its daft to oppose Cancellara and I really do think hes been saving himself for today. I thought he did a good job in the TTT so I think hes in good enough form and whilst others have been working hard he has done nothing since then. Ive had my biggest bet of the Tour on him which is basically my profit on Sanchez winning the KOTM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 So Cancellara has done the course in 57.15 which is slower than what Martin and Wiggins did the course in the Dauphine. However that was on stage 4 so it would be natural for the times to be slower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 So Cancellara has done the course in 57.15 which is slower than what Martin and Wiggins did the course in the Dauphine. However that was on stage 4 so it would be natural for the times to be slower. If the rain falls Cancellara should be fine. 2nd placed Westra actually went faster today than he did in the Dauphine by about 16 seconds. 57s seems a small margin though - I'd normally expect Cancellara to best Westra by more than that. As I said though, if it starts to rain you should be fine. EDIT: Tracker says it was raining heavily during Cancellara's time trial Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 We will have to wait and see what happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Millar nearly a minute down at the first checkpoint. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 De Gendt has just gone 5 secs quicker at the first check point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorro Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 De Gendt also 1" quicker than Porte at finish though I didn't have a bet on him, I hope he wins (as I'm a belgian :)) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Just like to say thanks to the guys for this thread throughout the Tour, amazing knowledge and hope you all had a win of sorts:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Winner Without Cavendish - Greipel @ 4.33 Sportsbet Winner Without Cavendish - Farrar @ 5 TAB Cav is priced as if he will win this 2/3 times and I think that's about right. On some of those occasions he doesn't, one of these men beat him, and on those times he does win, there's a good chance one of these men comes second, particularly with Feillu out. Phillipe Gilbert @ 80 Betfair Wasn't going to take this as I was expecting something like 26s which I wouldn't have thought was value, but this is in my eyes. There are always opportunists who try to outwit the sprinters and in recent years both Vinokourov and Cancellara have succeeded in doing just that. Gilbert has the strength and form that those riders had in their wins, and I think we have seen in previous stages that Lotto's answer to HTC's train is to send Gilbert on the attack so Greipel can just follow Cav. Anthony Roux @ 401 Bet365 Don't really expect him to win, but do expect Roux to attack, possibly following Gilbert in a move. Given I expect him to attack, I'll make sure I'm on at these odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Farrar has had a very strange Tour as he has pretty much gone missing since he won a stage bar a 3rd. Im looking forward to seeing what Cav does this year those two wins in Paris were just amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Superb yet again from Cav and his team. Makes it another profitable Tour for me as well. Cant wait for him to break the Tour record for number of stage wins which he surely will do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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