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About Leadbelly

  • Birthday 07/27/1978
  1. Re: Cycling 2013 Right teams, wrong riders and I even dismissed Paolini - doh! Wasn't that exciting unfortunately the race. It wasn't helped by Sporza geo-restricting their stream. Cycling coverage seems a bit cursed so far this year. Hopefully that will change this coming weekend and next week. Strade Bianchi is this Saturday. Fingers crossed it should be on Eurosport and it should be a good race. Lots of big names including the unstoppable Sagan, but a 2nd or 3rd might be up for grabs. I'm having a small bet on Nordhaug (81 ew with Bet365). He's coming back from a small injury, but he showed ok in the Haut Var (finished 14 secs back in the GC). His mountain biking background should help on the gravel roads and he's got a good punch for the nasty kick at the end in Siena. Slagter looks like being Blanco's main man, but Nordhaug with his extra classics experience could do very well here. Paris-Nice starts then on Sunday. No "big" names riding, they're mainly all going to be riding TA next week, so it's a rather open field. In terms of the GC only stages 5 and 7 will probably play a part. Stage 5 finishes on a 13.8 km climb at 6.6% and stage 7 is the same as last year with a TT up Col d'Eze. I'm going with Quintana (10 ew with Bet365). I'm not usually one for backing at such short prices but imo he's head and shoulders ahead of anyone else here in climbing ability (we saw that last year at the Vuelta and the Dauphine), he's in good form - despite having to help Valverde at Murcia and Ruta del Sol he still finished 11th and 7th in the two races. His weakness might be the TT, but because it's an uphill TT any time lost shouldn't be that big.
  2. Re: Cycling 2013 Prices are up for Omloop-Het Nieuwsblad and there are a lot of potential winners. Unfortunately there's not too many prices that jump out, but maybe some will drift out before the book closes on Saturday morning. I will have a couple of bets though on a pair of guys in decent shape. Stybar (41 ew with Bet365) has had a great season so far. 12th overall in both Qatar and Oman (in particular in Oman he was very impressive on the hilly parcour, could have finished higher if not for having to wait for Velits on Green Mountain). Normally his price would have been much shorter in this sort of form, but he rides for OPQS who have Terpstra, Chavanel and Boonen (who is talking down his own chances) so he might be forced to do some donkey work later on in the race - which would be a shame. Got a very good kick and hopefully his CX background will put in him good stead for the weather conditions that are forecast (very cold and windy). Kristoff (101 ew with Bet365) has had a similarly decent start to the year with 5 top ten spots already. He's still pretty young, but he's a decent semi-classics sort of guy on top of being a 2nd/3rd tier sprinter - 15th at RVV last year, 3rd at the Olympics, good performance at Three Days of De Panne. Should have the support of his team, only other rider who might contend is Paolini and he doesn't seem to be in much shape. Looking forward to this - the more hellish the conditions, the better!
  3. Re: Cycling 2013 I'll tell you after I've made my bets later in the week. :p But seriously, I was looking at the starters (though the list isn't confirmed yet) on cyclingfever and there are lots of guys looking in good form or look to be coming into good form. The four that are down so far for OPQS could all win it (though Tommeke will want the win - it's one he's never had), there's three or four names at Blanco that jump out, four at BMC, a few at Sky as you mention and there's other random guys that you could add to that list - Pozatto, Haussler, Flecha. If you then add in the guys then that maybe haven't shown the form yet, but who you know have performed in races like this before - then the list is getting 20+ strong. As always it will depend on the price.
  4. Re: Cycling 2013 First profit of the season (though I was half expecting to get a message from Bet365 saying the bet was void due to some error - the price had come in from 67 last night to 17 this morning when I checked). Just saw the highlights, and a very strong third place for Westra. Looked very comfortable sitting in the main grp of favourites (Henao, Rui Costa and Machado had gone up the road a little) and then attacked very strongly within the last km (just like on Mende) to nab third.
  5. Re: Cycling 2013 Memo to self - Phinney isn't quite light/good enough to get over those steeper bumps just yet. Been some great racing in Oman, just wish we could have seen it live instead of reading about it on twitter. Volta ao Algarve is also on at the moment and tomorrow's stage looks quite tasty. The finish is the same as the stage last year where Richie Porte won (though the rest of the stage is slightly different) - very rolling countryside and the finish is on Malhao. Quite a few candidates for the the win - several Sky riders, a couple of Portuguese and a couple of Dutchies. Westra (67 ew with Bet365) is the name and price that jumps out to me. He's got previous on finishes similar to this (see PN last year on Mende), got a good kick and has a couple of races already this year under the belt. The price is too big to resist. Martin, Kloden and Menchov (you could even maybe stick De Gendt in there) are all shorter odds which is just craziness.
  6. Re: Cycling 2013 Wasn't planning on having any bets on the Tour of Oman as there's no live coverage (you even have to wait till the next day for highlights), but I couldn't resist this bet for stage 2. Phinney (41 ew with Bet365) is looking very strong already this season (OT: he'll be challenging Martin very seriously this year). Not just in terms of his TT which has always been his strong point, but suddenly he's contesting sprints (an 8th and 5th in Qatar where he was mainly leading out Blythe, but also a 6th today where he was just working for himself). The sticking point might the short climb about 5 km from the finish, but I think it's the same climb they used in the TT a couple of years ago - I think as a TTer he should be able to power up it (or at least not lose much and be able to TT back to the group before the finish) and hopefully some of the sprinters will be left behind
  7. Re: Cycling 2013 Bit of a shame that Wellens was a victim of the heat, a top ten might have been on for him. Onto the Tour of Qatar. First stage is on Sunday and this year there's no Tommeke to defend his title. Don't have the foggiest what's happening as regards the weather, but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise for wind to play a part in deciding the GC. The TTT could play a part, but the gaps made there aren't likely to be that big - maybe 10-20 secs. Winner is likely to be a sprinter (bonus seconds), or a strong classics type guy with a bit of a kick. First pick is Breschel (101 ew with Bet365). This is a really nice price I feel. It's his first race of the year, but he's left Rabo over the winter and is back with Riis at Saxo where he had much success in the past. He could lose 15-20 secs in the TT, but if he's got his race legs he could do well if the race starts breaking up on a windy day. Could pick up bonus seconds from a reduced group. Secondly Offredo (201 ew with Bet365). Missed nearly almost all of last year due to a suspension, but one of the races he did compete in was this one, and I remember him finishing very strongly in one of the deciding stages. Was a shame he missed last year, as in the previous years before that he had shown some real promise with some good results in the big classic races. Again might lose a bit in the TTT. In fact, although it's too late for me as I've made the bets, if you are following them it might be better to wait till after the TTT as you might get better odds.
  8. Re: Cycling 2013 The TDU starts on Tuesday morning at some ungodly hour. Here's a and there are links on that page to the other five. Similar to last year the ascent of Old Willunga on stage 5 will play an important part, but stage 2 will also have an effect on the overall - an ascent of Corkscrew Road (some steep ramps) followed by a quick descent to the finish. Also, like last year, time bonuses will no doubt play a part, so look for punchy guys with sprints. Obviously form is a bit of an unknown at the this time of year and I'm not sure if the weather in Adelaide is similar to what they're getting in Sydney, but I'm sticking with very small stakes for both of those possible reasons. I like the look of the price for Velits (34 ew with Bet365). A climber but he's got a good kick on him. He got third last year in a stage in the TdF on a punchy finish (only beaten by EBH and Sagan) and he also showed some good early season form last year in winning the Tour of Oman (including second place on Green Mountain just behind Nibali). Also a couple of outsider picks. McCarthy (151 ew with Bet365) - I've read him descibed as being similar to Albasini. He didn't do so well in the Jayco Sun Herald Tour, but he finished 6th in the Aussie RR Championships the other day so he might be coming into some form. Got a decent kick and might pick up some time bonuses from a reduced group. Wellens (151 ew with Bet365) is another talented youngster. Did well in the Tour de l'Avenir last year, and when given the chance at the end of the season in China he managed to bag a top ten in the Tour of Beijing. Let's hope he's given a chance to challenge for the GC and doesn't have to work for the Gorilla.
  9. First race of the year is soon, so I guess we better have a new thread. Just going to quote ogii55's post from two years ago as it contains some useful sites for checking news, form and parcours etc. ​
  10. Re: Cycling 2012 The problem (or good thing depending on which way you look at it) with one day classics like San Sebastian is that there are always loads of guys at 100+ odds who you could quite easily convince yourself have decent shouts at a win or getting placed at least. The difficulty lies in selecting one or two to have an ew bet on, but let's have a go at getting some riders with the ability and form. Nocentini (101 ew with Bet365) has had a good year. Was having a gander at his results for the year on CQ and it's quite impressive actually. Lots of top 10 finishes in stage races and a run of 9th, 12th and 11th in the Ardennes classics (so the 230+ km shouldn't be a problem). His recent form is good with a 6th place finish in the overall at the ToP. Nordhaug (101 ew with Bet365). Maybe a bit more risky as he's likely to be playing second fiddle to Uran, but he showed decent form in the Olympic RR where he made the front group and rode aggressively, and was active in the ToP working for Henao. Was unlucky in the Ardennes to get side swiped by Cunego at AGR where a podium might have been on and the injuries sustained hampered his efforts in the FW and LBL. Devenyns (201 ew with Bet365) seems to like San Sebastian. Fifth last year and 27th and 14th in the preceding years. Was fairly anonymous in Eneco, but still managed 22nd overall. Might have to work for Chavanel or even Stybar, but to me his previous record on the same course indicates he might be a better bet. For instance Zubeldia who also does well at SS is priced at only 34. Might be back later if any more prices get put up or if some riders drift.
  11. Re: Cycling 2012 Two seconds away from the win. Leading at the intermediate split, but OGRE and OPQS just beat them at the end. Still no ew option on Bet365, so probably no more bets till San Sebastian.
  12. Re: Cycling 2012 Eneco Tour started today, but unfortunately Bet365 weren't offering ew bets on either the stage win or the overall. Not sure why really, but disappointed as a bet might have made the dull stage today a bit more exciting. The TTT is tomorrow though, so the lack of an ew option doesn't matter so much. Going for Katusha (101 with Bet365). There haven't been that many TTTs this year so far, in fact the only ones I remember are Qatar, TA and the Giro and in two of those Katusha surprised me with their strong performance. It seemed to me that they had been working on getting the most out of the team event - no doubt they didn't want J-Rod to lose much time at the Giro. The team that is at Eneco thankfully contains quite a few of the workhorses that got them these good results at Qatar and the Giro - people like Smukulis, Brutt, Kristoff and Ignatiev. If you add Spilak to that list and take into account that they don't have to babysit J-Rod or Dan Brown, I feel the price should be a bit shorter, maybe less than 50.
  13. Re: Cycling 2012 That's Peter Velits btw. Just to avoid confusion.
  14. Re: Cycling 2012 Looks like its a good year for the breaks, but it's the usual suspects getting the wins unfortunately. Prices just up for tomorrow's stage. Going with Velits (101 ew with Bet365) and Albasini (201 ew with Bet365). Been a bit difficult to get decent prices for realistic chances from breaks this tour. Either people have been injured earlier (Kruijswijk has been tempting me all week at prices over 100 - but I've resisted) or haven't shown any form and hence they get a big price, but both Velits and Albasini have been in decent shape and have been in the breaks a few times. Velits is probably the better climber, but Albasini maybe has more "cojones". Both possess a very good uphill kick if required as well.
  15. Re: Cycling 2012 I see the Kern price is now up, but unfortunately he's at 26 - so no bet there.
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