Jump to content
Announcements
*** York Ebor Competition: Well done to 1st daveg, 2nd glavintobuy & 3rd Donnyflyer ***
** August Poker League Result : 1st kevsul, 2nd ian309, 3rd Manc **
** August Naps Competition Result: 1st Zidane123, 2nd Adamross, 3rd Wanderlust, 4th Rainbow. KO Cup Winner: Peter York, Most Winners: Alastair **

meatman

New Members
  • Posts

    17861
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

meatman last won the day on June 23 2015

meatman had the most liked content!

About meatman

  • Birthday 08/28/1987

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

meatman's Achievements

Newbie

Newbie (1/14)

5

Reputation

  1. This is very sad to hear. Graham will go down as a true legend of this forum and a thoroughly top bloke. Thoughts with all family and friends. RIP
  2. Just heard about this terrible news. Had some great memories with Paul down the years. Taken way way too soon. Thoughts with all friends and family. RIP Paul
  3. Start - Stabaek I have gone with Stabaek -0.25 & Over 3.0 goals today. I don't like mixing bets too much from the same matches, but I really think this will be an open contest. Matches between these 2 sides often are, there is a tradition to it. Start from a defensive point of view are a shambles at times and constantly look like conceding. Stabaek have all sorts of dangerous pace in their attack which could give them tons of grief. Even if Stabaek keep a clean sheet then they are capable of scoring 3 goals themselves. I would say it's likely Start will get on the scoresheet though at some stage. The only main issue preventing the away win will be GK Opdal who has been having an amazing season for the hosts. He has been the best keeper this season IMO, but it just shows how poor their defence is that he's been called upon to work so much. My luck with overs in Norway has been poor recently but I see something like a 1-3 or even something daft like a 2-4 away win here. In the other game today, Haugesund - Lillestrom, I have no bet or even recommendation. FKH I find really difficult to predict, and although I think Lillestrom should at least draw, they can be unreliable too. I think a low scoring 1-1 draw, or even 0-0 could happen there.
  4. Molde just very clinical tonight. 9 shots, 6 on target and 4 goals. This is not something they had been threatening much recently, but just demonstrates the class they have still when they play well.
  5. Sarpsborg - Molde I don’t really have a substantial bet to recommend for this match, but I have some time on my hands this morning so thought I would do a preview anyway. From an analytical point of view, Sarpsborg are a very strange side. Their best players are definitely in defensive and midfield areas. They actually hardly have any striker on their roster, and even the few that they have available such as Martin Wiig are pretty much ****. The coach seems to regularly play guys out of their natural positions which can’t really help. An example of this is the usage of Amin Askar, who one week is a left back, the next week a striker, and more recently has been employed in central midfield! It must really frustrate certain individuals that they are moved around so often, but at least the coach does try new things. Molde aren’t what they were last season. It’s never easy defending a title, especially after such a perfect previous campaign but it seems for whatever reason, maybe a lot of things adding up, they aren’t so efficient. Their biggest issues are definitely away from home where they only possess a 2-2-3 record, with victories against Bodo and Mjondalen hardly anything to write home about. The simple fact is that Molde can't be trusted on their travels, although of course their squad still needs to be respected. They ground out a 1-1 draw at RBK last week which is still a very good result. Whether or not they can win today all depends if they are patient and clinical enough to break down a likely resolute Sarpsborg. Since they hammered Sandefjord 6-1, lack of goals is a real concern for Molde and their attack force is misfiring. Sarpsborg lined up in a 5-3-1-1 formation last week at Viking, but that was simply too negative and they eventually got picked apart. I am sure they will line up with the ambition to be pretty negative again here, but maybe not with 5 men at the back this time. For those guys who have backed Sarpsborg +0.75, I can’t really knock the bet too much. I think it’s a brave choice because honestly the home team don’t convince me at all recently. They are not a confident outfield and offer virtually no threat from open play to score a goal. They are however extremely dangerous from set pieces. Two of their top scorers are actually centre backs and I am going to have a small punt on both to score anytime tonight. Andreas Nordvik has netted three times this season and Ole Hansen twice. They always look a threat from corners and free kicks, and with a new Molde goalkeeper in between the sticks, maybe there could be issues for MFK from set pieces? I don’t think both should be such a big price to score today (20/1 & 26/1 respectively!) so worth a small nibble. As ridiculous as it sounds, if the hosts are to get on the scoresheet, the likelihood is that one of their defenders strikes! Good luck anyone betting on the game today, my own personal prediction is 1-1. To score anytime:- Ole Hansen @ 20/1 (Bet365) & Andreas Nordvik @26/1 (888sport)
  6. Honestly in his last 2 jobs with Auxerre and Valenciennes he's lost his way a bit. Casoni is too negative at times, expect them to keep their good defensive stats but maybe not smash too many teams. Casoni used to be really good at getting effort and motivation from his players and for his aggressive type coaching, but now following 2 failures there are more question marks about him.
  7. I was out at cricket so didn't watch the games. I am genuinely stunned by a couple of 0-0s there. Sorry there lads. For that Molde game to end goalless is quite amazing. Well done on the draw pick Lisandri
  8. Sandefjord - Lillestrom I’m going to be aggressive here with two bets, although neither of them are worth big stakes IMO. Sandefjord have lost their last 9 games but I think it’s still difficult to judge exactly how bad they are. During this 9 game streak, they’ve had a brutal run of games and faced all the top teams, at times they’ve been unlucky. The fundamental issue is Lars Bohenian’s insistence on playing the 3-5-2 formation. He might change that now, but if they don’t then I can’t see how they survive. Sandefjord simply play way too open and are mega vulnerable at the back, especially on counter attacks. That won’t serve them well today because the main strength of the LSK team going forward is with pace on the break. The visitors have been in some good form recently too, winning 4 of their last 5 and the one defeat in that run was a harsh one at Godset. Sooner or later Sandefjord will end this nightmare run, but until they do then it may be wise to go against them. I don’t think they are currently able to match ‘top half sides’ and that’s exactly what LSK are. It should be an open game of football and I like a piece of over 2.5 as well. So I’m going to place two bets because I see this ending something like 1-2 or 1-3 based on recent weeks. Recommended bets: Lillestrom -0.25 @ 1.85 4/10 and over 2.75 goals @ 1.69 4/10 Molde - Valerenga This should be a wide open contest, well worth watching and contain a feast of goals. Molde home matches are always high tempo affairs where they try and dominate opponents quickly, but they can also leave holes at the back. ‘Enga meanwhile are also renowned for high scoring games and have had a lot of overs this year, especially away. They’ve been involved in some ridiculous games like 5-4, 4-3 and 3-2 already this season and despite them facing a team like Molde here, will surely come with attacking intent. The Oslo side will be without striker Deshorn Brown who is on international duty, but his fitness has been up and down in recent weeks and might not be missed all that much. I think it’s extremely likely that this game will contain at least 3 goals, the only question is exactly how many more? The over line is a massive 3.25/3.5 so I had to think twice before placing this bet, but in the end I’ve decided to strike. The scoreline here could end something ridiculous and overall I think it’s worth a few units. Recommended bet: Over 3.25 goals @ 1.77 4/10
  9. Re: Ligue 2 Preview 2014/15 @ allthethings. So basically more draws in matches where there was a favourite below 2.0? I think the overall draw % was something really low like 22%, which is mega low for a French Ligue!
  10. Re: Ligue 2 Preview 2014/15 I didn't actually predict an exact position for any team correctly this season. I did however correctly get 8 of the top 10 and 2 of the 3 teams who went up. The three sides who I predicted to get relegated (Laval, GFCA & Nimes) all defied my low expectations. GFC achieved the remarkable by actually getting promoted, although in some ways in wasn't a surprise they were so good at home. Considering the talent on their roster and the lack of a quality goalscorer, it's amazing they managed to do so well. Laval were equally a shock, they just wouldn't lose games! Drawing a massive 21 times, they lost less games than anyone in the entire division (6 matches). Both GFC and Laval just showed that you don't need brilliant quality to do well in Ligue 2, although it must be said neither had any bad injuries all season which helped. Nimes was a slightly different situation. Once they were 'relegated' back in January they seemed to have no pressure on their shoulders and just 'went for it' hoping to get a place in the top 3. But they won their appeal against relegation, albeit will start next season on minus 8 points which will be interesting. At the top, Troyes finished miles clear but I personally didn't think they were anything special. They just had that champions knack of winning matches and scoring goals (often late) at the right time. Their defensive record was immense but actually many teams just seems to freeze in front of goal against them with the pressure. Deserved champions, but if you actually look at their games in detail they were as dominant as you might think. Angers should have cruised to 2nd place but a relatively poor away record cost them. They always seem to fuck up close to the line so they did well to finally make it up, but really this team should have picked up 70 points. For sure, it was also a wasted campaign for sides like Brest, Nancy and Dijon. When only 65 points would have got them up, they have to be fuming to have completed such a below par campaign. Ligue 2 was one of the hardest ligues to bet in this season. A big problem was the lack of a proper 'pecking order' A lot of teams were very similar to each other. Of the two teams cast adrift, Chateauroux were often priced fairly and with Arles I was 'too strong' on them at the start of the season, missing out on chances to oppose a team I believed in. This was actually one of the highest % overall home wins in Ligue 2 for a number of seasons. Also, the amount of draws was extremely low and away wins a bit on the high side. The best times to bet in this ligue are Sept - Nov and Feb-March. August, December, January plus anything from April onwards is usually best avoided. I will be following this tactic next season, albeit still with occasional value bets in the 'danger' periods. Next season only 2 teams will be relegated from Ligue 2 and only 2 teams promoted from L2, which will add a new dimension to things. I will be back in August with season previews, and hopefully next year the division will actually produce some actual proper power teams. I have high hopes that Brest Nancy, Dijon, Sochaux and maybe Metz will prove to be reliable teams. See you all then
  11. Re: Norway Tippeligaen 16th of May Bodo - Tromso I was very unlucky to lose on my over 3.0 bet on Bodo Wednesday night, so I’m more than willing to take the same thing again here. For once, they only conceded one goal but still looked very vulnerable, especially from set pieces. Tromso have been even more of a defensive mess recently, and it’s extremely difficult to see how this match wont at least contain 3 goals, unless both sides suddenly tighten up massively. There isn’t an awful lot else to say about this match. I’m fully expecting it to be a very open exciting contest. There is very little evidence to support a low scoring match and @ this sort of price I think it has to be worth a bet on the over 3.0 line. Recommended bet: Over 3.0 goals @ 2.05 5/10 Valerenga - Mjondalen MIF achieved the impossible on Tuesday night, somehow beating RBK from 0-2 down. It was a remarkable performance and they showed great spirit, fight and determination to secure that result. They lack talent, but more than make up for it with heart. However, eventually there are bound to be some matches where the high level of Tippeligaen ‘finds them out’. This could be one of them because Valerenga have the attacking potential to kill them. Enga have fired hot and cold, but always seem to create an abundance of chances. They couldn't take them in their last two home games but it’s only a matter of time before they run riot on someone IMO. Mjondalen are likely to be pretty tired both physically and mentally after a couple of incredible comebacks. They have had to deal with a lot of injuries recently and their squad is very small. I’m sure they will come here and ‘have a go’ and it’s probable they will even score. That’s why I like the overs along with ‘Enga on a handicap. I see something like a 3-1 or 4-1 home win here. Recommended bets: Valerenga -1 (asian) @ 2.05 4/10 & Over 3.0 goals @ 1.95 3/10 Molde - Stabaek Stabaek are top and in really good form. They have won 6 straight matches and kept 6 consecutive clean sheets in the process. This is now going to be their toughest test so far, and one which they might ultimately fail. But someone is seriously taking the piss with this handicap. How can Stabaek be +1.5 here? It’s true that Molde are a very classy team and great at home but I feel the visitors deserve a bit more respect than this. Molde are very capable of beating any team at home easily, so if this bet lost then it wouldn't be the biggest shock in the world. But based on pure principles of great odds, I really think Stabaek have to be taken +1.5. They could lose this match by one goal yet still cover here. Recommended bet: Stabaek +1.5 @ 1.85 3/10 Stromsgodset - Aalesund This is another match in which I fancy the overs. Both teams have just one clean sheet between them all season and seem incapable of defending well. Aalesund are much improved since sacking their coach but most of their improvements have been in the final third of the field where they’ve looked more threatening. Godset are actually looking a shambles at the back at times but have some good offensive weapons. I’m expecting a home win here but a safer bet looks set to be over 3.0. It has the potential to be really high scoring if chances are taken. Recommended bet: Over 3.0 goals @ 1.97 3/10 Sarpsborg - Lillestrom I quite like Sarpsborg’s chances in this match. They seem to be playing pretty well at the moment, especially at home. It's remarkable they don't have any decent strikers on their books, but the rest of the team is chipping in well. They certainly aren't lacking for goals and seem pretty confident right now. Lillestrom aren't a team to be underestimated but are missing a few for this fixture. They had a superb come from behind win against Molde on Wednesday, but I just wonder how much stuffing that has taken out of them. Coming down off such an emotional high won't be easy and I fancy Sarpsborg to take advantage. I was debating whether to take them or not, but in the end I decided on a 3u nit play. Recommended bet: Sarpsborg -0.5 @ 1.95 3/10 Odd - Haugesund The hosts returned to some sort of form midweek by convincingly beating Godset 2-0. This really should end up as a routine win for them too. Haugesund are offering absolutely nothing at the moment, especially from an offensive point of view. They’ve only scored 5 goals all season which is by far the lowest tally of any team in this league. It’s possible only goal is needed for Odd to take the match, the question is can they cover a -1 asian handicap? I think in the end I’m going to reject this bet, but I would be surprised if Odd don’t at least win. Rosenborg - Sandefjord The asian line here is -2.25 which might seem massive, but actually I was fairly tempted. I would imagine RBK hit back strongly after their shock loss on Tuesday night. Sandefjord I don’t believe to be quite as bad as their results might suggest, but should struggle here. The main thing that puts me off backing RBK -2.25 is that they don’t ‘need’ to win big. Some of the players have admitted to taking it easy recently after getting a big lead, so there’s every chance they could take their foot off the gas. Nevertheless, I am still expecting an easy win for RBK, probably by about a 3 goal margin. Viking - Start Start just seem in a really poor way right now. They have played pretty badly in their last 3-4 matches and should’ve even gotten beat by Bodo at home on Wednesday night. This should end up as a fairly routine Viking victory, but I am always reluctant to back this team on a big handicap. They just aren't the sort of side who will consistently ‘hammer’ anyone, even though in theory they should do so here. It’s on that basis I’m not going to take them -1, but if they won something like 2-0 or 3-0 I wouldn’t be surprised.
  12. Re: Norway - Tippeligaen (12-13 May) Unfortunately I don't think lady luck was with me this round. 1-1 after 8 mins in the Start - Bodo match and then no more goals!!!! I mean WTF! The last 30 mins of Odd v Godset had no more goals in it either. Both circumstances would normally at very worst push. Sometimes just need a bit of luck with finishing chances when on overs, I didn't have that here.
  13. Re: Norway - Tippeligaen (12-13 May) Start - Bodo I’m going for an obvious bet here, although even I am wary that trends might change. Both teams are in really poor form and look especially vulnerable defensively. The amount of goals that both have conceded recently has been ridiculous. Start do have 8 points to their name but the last week hasn’t been kind to them - consecutive 4-0 defeats in the cup and league. This will be a more manageable fixture for them compared to Molde, but they couldn't be trusted with monopoly money IMO. Remarkably, Bodo can be trusted even less such has been their woeful recent performances. It might actually help them that coach JHH is missing for this game having back surgery, something needs to drastically change for this team. Bodo have claimed they will be ‘more defensive’ going forwards, but that is far easier said than done. It’s very hard to change the dynamics of any side suddenly and their natural instincts are to attack. I think it is likely that both teams are a bit more cautious compared to normal, but over 3.0 is still a bet I like. The best form of defence for both sides will remain attack, so the fixture should remain relatively open. Often in my experience when two poor teams play against each other, many goals tend to be scored because each side ‘fancies it’s chances’. As aforementioned, I am a little wary of a potential change in Bodo tactics, but I’m still willing to sake 4pts on this bet. Recommended bet: Over 3.0 Goals @ 1.85 4/10 Odd - Stromsgodset After a strong start to the season, Odd have dropped off form a bit. I’m not sure totally what’s happened, but not all seems right with them at the moment. They were worryingly poor against Sarpsborg a couple of weeks ago, and on Sunday were lucky to draw away at Viking. Having said that, Odd still have plenty of quality in their ranks and could easily rebound soon. Stromsgodset meanwhile, have been largely inconsistent this season. It’s true they haven't been helped by injuries and again tonight they miss a few players. Their biggest problem has been lack of a clean sheet, although at least they have proved to be threatening at the other end. For me, this looks set to be an open game of football and I like the overs in it. Last season Odd had a reputation of being quite tight and lower scoring, but this year it’s clear they aren't as solid. Godset will definitely come here and attack, giving it a proper go. Their own defensive issues mean that they simply have to outscore opponents at the moment. This really could be a great match to watch, likely full of chances and goals. Sometimes when two ‘bigger’ teams meet then there can be too much respect shown, leading to a tighter contest. I don’t personally see that happening though. I have a sneaky suspicion Godset will draw or win, but a safer bet is definitely over 3.0 Recommended bet: Over 3.0 goals @ 2.0 5/10 Stabaek - Sandefjord Stabaek are totally on fire! They have won 5 straight games and kept clean sheets in all of those contests. Coach Bob Bradley is once again defying the odds and proving his quality. Pre season many predicted they would struggle, but there have been few signs of that so far. Stabaek just look like a team in a really good dynamic at the moment and they know how to win games. Today they miss important midfielder Luc Kassi to suspension, but even without him they should be alright against a team such as Sandefjord. Now I personally don't think the visitors are that bad a team. In a number of matches they have been unlucky not to either win or draw. But perhaps this is the sign of a poor team - finding ways to fuck up games they should do better in. It seems they are very prone to conceding late goals or letting good opportunities slip. They play in an aggressive 3-5-2 formation and this is perhaps to their detriment. Stabaek will have enough for them today IMO and find a way to collect 3 points. I prefer taking them straight win rather than -0.75 handicap. Recommended bet: Stabaek win @ 1.75 4/10 Just a word on the other games. Aalesund - Sarpsborg I think will be a draw. SS are in fairly good form and all of their away games have been tight so I sense something like 1-1, or maybe even an outside chance of 0-0. Haugesund - Viking I also think will be low scoring, another that has slight 0-0 potential or maybe a tight Viking win. Molde should be good enough to take victory at LSK but anyone who watched them at Viking last week couldn't help but be concerned about their away form this season. They get 3 points IMO but there’s definitely a risk of a draw. Best of luck everyone today!
  14. Re: Norway - Tippeligaen (12-13 May) Just a freak result really. The chances of Mjondalen winning against RBK from 0-2 down are 500/1 or something. They just got complacent and then were rocked by what had happened.
×
×
  • Create New...