four-leaf

I know he has been crappy for a while, I just thought that he was training hard in Turin to stop the bleeding. Also, Mardy Fish preferred the 36-year-old Isner over Tiafoe? I mean, really?
Career not the most important thing to Isner anymore
Recently, Isner became a father for the third time and his family is his top priority at this stage of his life. “There’s no doubt that tennis is secondary in my life right now, so we’ll see how it goes as my career winds down.
You definitely have to maximise your time – I don’t have as much time to put into my craft. But at my age, I don’t need to be on the court three hours a day," Isner admitted. “When I’m home I’ve tailored my schedule around the kids.
I drop them off at 8:30 and then boom – from 9:00-11:00 that’s my time to practise, then I can pick them up. I try to get my work in around their schedule."
Source: https://www.tennisworldusa.org/amp_tennis/news/Tennis_Interviews/105492/john-isner-tennis-is-secondary-in-my-life-right-now/
....says it all.

Dortmund II - Kaiserslautern
Kaiserslautern @1.93 (Pinnacle)
Kaiserslautern should be the favourites here. Together with Mannheim, they currently are the best team in the league behind Magdeburg. Their defense is super solid and does not allow much (Kraus and goalkeeper Raab are out today, but equal replacements are there as we saw last week when they allowed no chance vs. Wehen), and their offensive has a high individual quality. Also, their set pieces have been extremely strong in the last couple of weeks. Altogether, I even see them as the most mature team in 3. Liga at the moment.

Dortmund II, by contrast, are not so good anymore as earlier in this season. It has to do with injuries (best player Pasalic injured some weeks ago), and also Knauff does not have much playing time in the second team anymore. For today, Knauff and probably Zagadou will be unavailable due to first team duties. If I go through their performances of the last weeks, I could not name a really convincing one. After four consecutive defeats, they won away at Halle last week, but it had nothing to do with the attractive football of earlier in this season, rather they won this thanks to efficiency and because Halle were unlucky at finishing.
Altogether, Kaiserslautern are the currently much better and much more mature team. They should surely be favourites here.

Wehen - Verl
Verl +0.75 @1.74 (Pinnacle)
There are perhaps two main reasons why we have a value spot on Verl: First of all, in terms of quality and the way how both teams have been playing lately, the differences are not very big at all. Both teams have their strengths in the offensive while being shaky in the defense. Actually, Verl have been playing even more attractively compared with Wehen. 

Wehen come from an away defeat at Kaiserslautern and an embarassing regional cup knock-out at 6th division side Friedberg. In the Kaiserslautern-game, they basically had no goalscoring chance in the entire match. By contrast, Verl delivered against Saarbrücken and played well, but lost because the guests were very clinical (2:4). And the second big reason why this line does not make sense is because the home advantage is almost non-existing here. Wehen is a team with almost no fan support, and they actually even tend to play better away than at home. On the other hand, Verl have 38 away games per season because they are not allowed to play in their own stadium.

Due to the relatively even quality and form of both sides and the non-existing home factor, we have a clear value bet on Verl here.

U.K. snooker starts today, I’ve backed a massive outsider 300s on Betfair exchange, had £20 on him, he’s practicing well and I believe is well over priced,Tom Ford, good luck

Quite hard to place bets with the odds released so late, but I fancy Sweden to beat Canada at 2.04 with Pinnacle. The Ymer brothers could make for a good team and Canada only really has Pospisil as an elite guy.

It's a big one this time around!

Should we create a Davis Cup 2021 thread? It's gonna be a blockbuster DC this year.
@CzechPunter

I think there's a decent chance for Norrie to take something from tonight's match against Djokovic.

Novak never played against him so i guess it will take some time for Novak to figure out the right game plan. Also,Novak tends to be a little bit sloppy when it comes to these 3rd round matches,and he's already thru.

I like overs here..margin of 19.5 games is appealing and the odds are nice too.

Nakashima against Alcaraz
Nakashima has impressive record on indoors this year 19W 3L against very decent players similar to Alcaraz so i don't see why he is such a dog?
i am taking him to win at least 2 sets at 1.90

I fully agree with you. However I do not think the bet is right in the current format that they are playing. Better to take Nakashima +4.5 @4/5 paddypower or the outright win @ 15/8. Goodluck anyway.

Do like underdog Jaqueline Cristian against Halep today. I watched the Konteviet game against Halep last week, and Halep just got bullied and hit clean off the court. 2nd set she was 2-0 up, and lost 6-3. So while she has enough to win she is not playing particularly well. Against Paolini in her last match she was a set and a break down. Paolini, just could not close out the 2nd set, and collapsed in the 3rd, but it was a close call.  Cristian is an up and comer, (a future star for sure) and is way better ( far more game) than Paolini. Odds of 4.5 on Cristian just to hard to resist.
For me the slam dunk of the Day has to be Murray against Paul. In playing styles a perfect match up for Murray. My feeling is that Fritz was just worn out against Paul. He was a break down in 2nd set and at 4-3 had a very lengthy game where he could not convert a break point.  Both Murray and Paul highly motivated here, but Murray has too much for him.
I think Auger Aliasimme has a tough match with van der Zandschulp. Aliasimme serving great, but not a brilliant returner. Would expect a very close 1st set and the over 10.5 games at 2.75 (bet365) is an option.
As for the NextGen, I find it unwatchable. Can't see the ball, main camera too high (so you don't see the ball flight) . Just a hideous,  production that should be reevaluated and upgraded next time. Nothing stands out as a gimme there.
For me the WTA finals are a simple NO GO. No clear favorites or advantages. Those results will be very close, but are 50/50 calls. Tournament is a lottery. If I had to choose a match it would be Sakkari to beat Swiatek. For me Swiatek has stagnated, after her (perfect storm) French Open win (which was similar to Raducanu US Open.  You look back and think 'how in hell was that even possible'?
Challenger stuff, for the most part scares me. Players are ranked down there for a reason.
1) They have a limited (relative) game
2) Coming to the end of a career (Verdasco, Simon)
3) They are just beginning a career (Rune)
4) They have some kind of injury that is hampering their game (K. Anderson, D. Goffin)
Do you really want to be throwing cash at a match up against a 150 and 190 ranked player? SO, while there are bettable matchups, I think that level of play should not be backed with full stakes. I like Alex Molcan to win today against Kamke., maybe in a double with Tallon Griekspoor.

Well, she can play against them with her smart tennis, but she needs to be at her best. If she isn't, her limitations are huge.

To me this is a dangerous time for tennis betting. Players have hit the wall. Most want to finish off the last tournament and go home. The nextGen is tricky because of the weird scoring system (first to 4 games and I think no deuce at add).
Interesting to hear what Medvedev had to say about the Paris courts
Daniil Medvedev is reeling off the victories at the Rolex Paris Masters in Bercy – eight straight if you’re scoring at home – but the Russian says that this year the surface is playing so slow that it is making things difficult for him – and other players – to hold serve and play a classic brand of first-strike indoor tennis.
Speaking after his 7-6(4), 6-4 victory over Hugo Gaston of France on Friday the world No 2 said that the slow surface, combined with a different ball from last season, has made him wonder why tournaments are making indoor hard courts play so slow these days.
full article here;
https://www.tennismajors.com/atp/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp/medvedev-bercy-courts-playing-too-slow-for-indoor-hard-court-511747.html
I would stay away from the next gen today. Maybe watch and have a look at the games. After Alcaraz meltdown at Paris, I would leave him alone.  I think Korda v Gaston could be very close, scoring system will have an effect. Whoever adapts the quickest will have an advantage.
For me two low priced easy wins in Stockholm. Fritz over Gerasimov and van De Zandschulp over Serdarusic. Ok, low priced , but two wins.
In Linz I like Collins over Minnen and Radacanu over Wang.
As a higher priced bet I would be taking Riske over Cornet. Riske has won their last 3 meetings.
 

One card short unfortunately but no point in bemoaning bad luck as the 3rd card only came during the 10 minutes of added time!
Odds can be complicated, to be honest I tend to be a fractions guy when posting on here even though I have to use decimal when updating my spreadsheet. I do post decimal odds for exchange bets because that’s how they’re shown. When applying the boost to this bet it quoted the new price as 19/10 but the return was slightly better so I quoted the decimal price. Perhaps I should have mentioned the price involved a boost. 

Yes and I checked the odds and over had the bigger price so I was just hoping you didn't mean under and I am not very good at fractions.

Tallon Griekspoor, that's a guy I would be backing next season even on hardcourts in some extent.

Also,if u don't mind,i would like to say something about final as well.

Novak must not allow Medvedev,from the start,to be relaxed and get in the rhytm. That's exactly how he lost to Medvedev in Cincinnati (2020) and in New York couple a months ago. He has to put him under the pressure and to make good decisions in key points. By the look how he played today against Hurkacz,i'm not sure he could do that. Novak has to find a way to move Danil from baseline,otherwise i think he will lose.

Of course,this is Novak and you can't write him off completely, but i do expect a better Novak in Turin and Davis Cup Finals.

Spread betting is new to me, I've only done "points spread" betting.

At this time of the year players fall into two categories. Highly motivated or holiday mode. The ATP finals race will seriously motivate players. A huge payday awaits where a decent week can nett 500K Euro's . The alternate (who hangs around all week collects 200k). The race to the ATP finals looks like this, with one tournament to go after this one.
7th) Casper Ruud  3,105  8th) Jannik Sinner  3,015  9th) Rafael Nadal*  2,985  10th) Hubert Hurkacz  2,955  11th) Cameron Norrie  2,875  12th) Felix Auger-Aliassime  2,420  
Sinner and Auger Aliasimme are done, but Ruud, Hurkacz and Norrie are looking to fill the last 2 spots.  Both Koepfer and Duckworth have exceeded their expectations here, and are playing with house money. Anything more is a bonus for both of them, but I think they both lose today. Not great odds  for Popyrin and Hurkacz, but a double returns even money which is decent. Popyrin looking reasonably good indoors, while Hurkacz should have too much for lucky loser Koepfer.
I think a motivated Casper Ruud will also get the better of Giron.
The two interesting matches are Djoko v Monfils (17-0 record) and Zverev v Dimitrov. Forget most of the 17-0 Djoko record. I think this new version of Monfils can run him very close. Djoko slightlly underdone, while Monfils looks terrific.
I don't think Zverev will get the fast court assistance that he craves for his serve. Dimitrov, resurgent, is definitely in with a shot here. I expect both these games to go over 19.5 games, with no blowouts.
 
 
 
 

This Paris masters has a very strange court surface. Very slow and low bounce. You can see that players can't get used to it, especially the speed. The ball stops in the court, and when you miss you miss early (ie, you have already hit it, and it is not quite on the racquet), and drag the ball cross court. Tiafoe, Bautista Agut, Basilshvilli, Fognini (maybe injured) all out due to this weird carpet surface.
The Fognini v Fusocovics match was just a horrid, error strewn mess. Even Djokovic struggled against Fuscovics who is confidence drained and playing poorly.
Schwartzman got past Millman yesterday in a 32 game match that had 17 (yes really) serve breaks. That's insane.
 
It looks very difficult to hit somebody off the court (or serve them off the court).
SO I do like the Norrie match up with Opelka who may not get the serving assistance he is used to.
Monfils is simply playing fab tennis. He is a basketball player, or a middle distance athlete with a racquet in his hand. He will take a lot of stopping here, and should be way to good for Mannirino.
I think Rublev and Tsistsipas may just struggle today. The court will mess them up, as it takes some getting used too.  I expect one of them to lose  or both their matches to go 3 sets.
Schwartsman playing a much tougher opponent in Giron, and I expect him to lose as well.
 

@Fader Mann hasn't lost to Reanne, it was the other way around. He beat Reanne 4-2.

Barry Pinches to beat (+2.5 frames) Luca Brecel at 2.55 with Unibet
I'm not sold on Brecel here as the heavy favourite. He's making to many mistakes just like Barry and I can see these two going toe to toe.

Barry Pinches/Luca Brecel over 7.5 frames at 2.75 with Unibet
Just like the previous post I think these two can go toe to toe.

Best of luck to all Clarke backers..