Tennis Tips - November 8 - November 14

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

We've got Stockholm, Linz and the NextGen finals up this week!

Alexander Bublik to beat Arthur Rinderknech at 2.09 with Pinnacle

You obviously never know which Bublik will turn up, but he's better than Rinderknech when he's at least average. Rinderknech doesn't have much aside from his serve and he's on a losing streak, too, only managing a set against Gaston last time out. He's done very well so far in the season, but I don't think it justifies him being the favourite in this one.

 

[neilovan]

To me this is a dangerous time for tennis betting. Players have hit the wall. Most want to finish off the last tournament and go home. The nextGen is tricky because of the weird scoring system (first to 4 games and I think no deuce at add).

Interesting to hear what Medvedev had to say about the Paris courts

Daniil Medvedev is reeling off the victories at the Rolex Paris Masters in Bercy – eight straight if you’re scoring at home – but the Russian says that this year the surface is playing so slow that it is making things difficult for him – and other players – to hold serve and play a classic brand of first-strike indoor tennis.

Speaking after his 7-6(4), 6-4 victory over Hugo Gaston of France on Friday the world No 2 said that the slow surface, combined with a different ball from last season, has made him wonder why tournaments are making indoor hard courts play so slow these days.

full article here;

https://www.tennismajors.com/atp/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp/medvedev-bercy-courts-playing-too-slow-for-indoor-hard-court-511747.html

I would stay away from the next gen today. Maybe watch and have a look at the games. After Alcaraz meltdown at Paris, I would leave him alone.  I think Korda v Gaston could be very close, scoring system will have an effect. Whoever adapts the quickest will have an advantage.

For me two low priced easy wins in Stockholm. Fritz over Gerasimov and van De Zandschulp over Serdarusic. Ok, low priced , but two wins.

In Linz I like Collins over Minnen and Radacanu over Wang.

As a higher priced bet I would be taking Riske over Cornet. Riske has won their last 3 meetings.

 

Edited November 9, 2021 by neilovan

[neilovan]

 OMG what are they doing with that nextgen coverage? Is the camera embedded in the ceiling. Vertigo inducing picture, where you can't see the ball flight or the ball. Amateur hour ... useless ! WHo dreams this fiasco up?

Edited November 9, 2021 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, it is quite ridiculous. Makes for an awful experience.

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, it is quite ridiculous. Makes for an awful experience.

And it is so easy. Look at the Aussie open and mimic what they do, because that viewing is world class.

Amazing to see Radacanu getting creamed again. Last outing versus Kostyk she got hammered 1 and 2 and this looks similar beating to a qualifier. US Open win was a modern miracle, or perfect storm. Be 6-1 down in 28 minutes.

  

Edited November 9, 2021 by neilovan

[Torque]

6 minutes ago, neilovan said:

And it is so easy. Look at the Aussie open and mimic what they do, because that viewing is world class.

Amazing to see Radacanu getting creamed again. Last outing versus Kostyk she got hammered 1 and 2 and this looks similar beating to a qualifier. US Open win was a modern miracle, or perfect storm. Be 6-1 down in 28 minutes.

  

It was a miracle. It will never be repeated. What we're seeing now though are some great opportunities to back players that face her at prices that are higher than they should be because of that US Open win.

[neilovan]

10 minutes ago, Torque said:

It was a miracle. It will never be repeated. What we're seeing now though are some great opportunities to back players that face her at prices that are higher than they should be because of that US Open win.

These crazy results in the woman's majors. Without Serena, anyone of 8 players can easily win. I definitely think Konteviet and Badosa are ones to watch and back , especially going into next year. One of them will win a major next year.

 

Radacanu won 17 points in the first set, opponent 33 (Qualifier). 17% percent points won on 2nd serve. She won two points against the serve. Laughable. Prob a good time to back her now, because this game should be a 1st set reversal and no contest!

Drives me crazy when I see woman pro's who can't serve the ball. It's simply ridiculous. My dad was a coach, I could hit the ball when I was 6. I must have served 800 balls every weekend. Even now, I can do it in my sleep. 

 

Edited November 9, 2021 by neilovan

[Torque]

5 minutes ago, neilovan said:

These crazy results in the woman's majors. Without Serena, anyone of 8 players can easily win. I definitely think Konteviet and Badosa are ones to watch and back , especially going into next year. One of them will win a major next year.

There's crazy results and then there's the Raducanu result. That's on it's own stratosphere completely. It's been the case for a number of years now that any one of maybe 10 female players could win a Slam, but absolutely nobody would have put Raducanu in that list and for obvious reasons.

[neilovan]

Radacanu has served 8 times and has faced 13 break points. This is with a first serve percentage of over 80%.  Match stats like that are virtually impossible.

[neilovan]

Having looked at the court speed at the NextGen finals, I think Gaston could get overpowered relatively easily. I would be betting against him almost every match. Courts definitely miles faster than Paris. Also, a big server has a huge advantage, because there is only 1 point at deuce , and being able to serve at ace is massive.

Edited November 9, 2021 by neilovan

[four-leaf]

What I saw from Murray tonight isn't enough on thursday, he's gonna lose to Sinner.

[Torque]

That'll be a different match @four-leaf Murray will be really up for it. I think he struggles to get motivated in matches where he's up against players he knows are inferior.

[four-leaf]

13 minutes ago, Torque said:

That'll be a different match @four-leaf Murray will be really up for it. I think he struggles to get motivated in matches where he's up against players he knows are inferior.

Ye, I saw indications of that when Murray really turned the heat down in the second but still covered a 5.5 handicap at almost evens.

Edited November 9, 2021 by four-leaf

[CzechPunter]

Anett Kontaveit to beat Barbora Krejcikova at 1.47 with Pinnacle

Krejcikova hasn't been fully fit for quite some time now, hard to see her doing well. Kontaveit has been playing the lights out recently to qualify.

[neilovan]

12 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Ye, I saw indications of that when Murray really turned the heat down in the second but still covered a 5.5 handicap at almost evens.

Murray likes to do his practice on court. When he finds an opponent he knows he can beat, he wants to spend time on court. So he milks the game, getting as much court time as possible, without being overly risky. ALways done it.

[888888]

Nakashima against Alcaraz

Nakashima has impressive record on indoors this year 19W 3L against very decent players similar to Alcaraz so i don't see why he is such a dog?

i am taking him to win at least 2 sets at 1.90

[liquidglass]

2 hours ago, 888888 said:

Nakashima against Alcaraz

Nakashima has impressive record on indoors this year 19W 3L against very decent players similar to Alcaraz so i don't see why he is such a dog?

i am taking him to win at least 2 sets at 1.90

I fully agree with you. However I do not think the bet is right in the current format that they are playing. Better to take Nakashima +4.5 @4/5 paddypower or the outright win @ 15/8. Goodluck anyway.

[neilovan]

Do like underdog Jaqueline Cristian against Halep today. I watched the Konteviet game against Halep last week, and Halep just got bullied and hit clean off the court. 2nd set she was 2-0 up, and lost 6-3. So while she has enough to win she is not playing particularly well. Against Paolini in her last match she was a set and a break down. Paolini, just could not close out the 2nd set, and collapsed in the 3rd, but it was a close call.  Cristian is an up and comer, (a future star for sure) and is way better ( far more game) than Paolini. Odds of 4.5 on Cristian just to hard to resist.

For me the slam dunk of the Day has to be Murray against Paul. In playing styles a perfect match up for Murray. My feeling is that Fritz was just worn out against Paul. He was a break down in 2nd set and at 4-3 had a very lengthy game where he could not convert a break point.  Both Murray and Paul highly motivated here, but Murray has too much for him.

I think Auger Aliasimme has a tough match with van der Zandschulp. Aliasimme serving great, but not a brilliant returner. Would expect a very close 1st set and the over 10.5 games at 2.75 (bet365) is an option.

As for the NextGen, I find it unwatchable. Can't see the ball, main camera too high (so you don't see the ball flight) . Just a hideous,  production that should be reevaluated and upgraded next time. Nothing stands out as a gimme there.

For me the WTA finals are a simple NO GO. No clear favorites or advantages. Those results will be very close, but are 50/50 calls. Tournament is a lottery. If I had to choose a match it would be Sakkari to beat Swiatek. For me Swiatek has stagnated, after her (perfect storm) French Open win (which was similar to Raducanu US Open.  You look back and think 'how in hell was that even possible'?

Challenger stuff, for the most part scares me. Players are ranked down there for a reason.

1) They have a limited (relative) game

2) Coming to the end of a career (Verdasco, Simon)

3) They are just beginning a career (Rune)

4) They have some kind of injury that is hampering their game (K. Anderson, D. Goffin)

Do you really want to be throwing cash at a match up against a 150 and 190 ranked player? SO, while there are bettable matchups, I think that level of play should not be backed with full stakes. I like Alex Molcan to win today against Kamke., maybe in a double with Tallon Griekspoor.

Edited November 11, 2021 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, Krejcikova looking poor, Kontaveit flying. Will back her again if the price is right.

[neilovan]

40 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, Krejcikova looking poor, Kontaveit flying. Will back her again if the price is right.

Kejickova has amazing stats against players ranked 50 and above. She is basically unbeatable .... but against very very good players her game has limitations ... no big weapons.

[CzechPunter]

Well, she can play against them with her smart tennis, but she needs to be at her best. If she isn't, her limitations are huge.

[CzechPunter]

Garbine Muguruza to beat Barbora Krejcikova at 1.81 with Pinnacle

Definitely a good enough price with the same reasoning.

[CzechPunter]

Karolina Pliskova to beat Barbora Krejcikova at 1.74 with Unibet

Let's try to get 3/3 in the WTA finals. Krejcikova is in a really bad shape and she might just give Pliskova the go ahead to qualify.