Tennis Tips - November 1 - November 7

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Reilly Opelka to beat Filip Krajinovic at 1.87 with Pinnacle

Both are in poor forms at the moment, but Opelka has had some bad luck, running into the red-hot Brooksby and then to Sinner. Krajinovic has looked a fair bit worse to me, so I'm quite keen to take him on. This does have the feeling of a coin-flip match and the odds aren't great based on that, but Opelka has looked better to me recently by a lot. 

[888888]

anyone trying Brooksby [email protected] to beat Murray? he is having a very good season 49/12 , including 11/2 on indoors

[Torque]

1 hour ago, 888888 said:

anyone trying Brooksby [email protected] to beat Murray? he is having a very good season 49/12 , including 11/2 on indoors

I'd leave it @888888 Brooksby is fortunate to even be in the draw. Nearly got knocked out in qualifying and seemed to be struggling with a back injury which was affecting his serve. Bearing that in mind, I actually think Murray is a good price. He's not the sort of player you want to play if you're struggling to hold serve which Brooksby was.

Edited November 1, 2021 by Torque

[CzechPunter]

Yes, I think you're either betting Murray there or not betting at all. Brooksby isn't fully fit.

[Torque]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Yes, I think you're either betting Murray there or not betting at all. Brooksby isn't fully fit.

Important to say that of course Brooksby could still win. He might have recovered a bit from whatever was bothering him in qualies, Murray might play poorly, Murray might get injured or struggle with his fitness etc.

[Torque]

12 minutes ago, Torque said:

Important to say that of course Brooksby could still win. He might have recovered a bit from whatever was bothering him in qualies, Murray might play poorly, Murray might get injured or struggle with his fitness etc.

As I type that, either Brooksby or Murray has withdrawn. I'm going with Brooksby.

EDIT: Brooksby withdrew. Not a surprise really.

Edited November 1, 2021 by Torque

[CzechPunter]

Joris De Loore to beat Ryan Peniston at 1.83 with Pinnacle

De Loore hasn't played much so far in this season, but he's on a tremendous run at the moment and I'm not sure why he shouldn't be able to take it even further. He's got potential, while Peniston has been average throughout his whole career. Also hasn't played for a while, which isn't great when facing someone on a good run.

[CzechPunter]

James Duckworth to beat Lorenzo Musetti at 1.68 with Pinnacle

Don't like Musetti at the moment at all, he doesn't have the game for these conditions and Duckworth was impressive today. Musetti also rarely has a lot of fight in him for some reason, hard to like him based on that as well.

[yogg]

Ruud Vs Bubik 

 

I expect Ruud to win this but there was clearly something wrong about his second set performance against Sinner in Vienna last week and may be a chance for Bubik (who is no mug) to nick a set here on the back of a good win against Dan Evans.

2 sets to 1 Ruud to win @3.75 with BetVictor. good luck all. 

[neilovan]

This Paris masters has a very strange court surface. Very slow and low bounce. You can see that players can't get used to it, especially the speed. The ball stops in the court, and when you miss you miss early (ie, you have already hit it, and it is not quite on the racquet), and drag the ball cross court. Tiafoe, Bautista Agut, Basilshvilli, Fognini (maybe injured) all out due to this weird carpet surface.

The Fognini v Fusocovics match was just a horrid, error strewn mess. Even Djokovic struggled against Fuscovics who is confidence drained and playing poorly.

Schwartzman got past Millman yesterday in a 32 game match that had 17 (yes really) serve breaks. That's insane.

 

It looks very difficult to hit somebody off the court (or serve them off the court).

SO I do like the Norrie match up with Opelka who may not get the serving assistance he is used to.

Monfils is simply playing fab tennis. He is a basketball player, or a middle distance athlete with a racquet in his hand. He will take a lot of stopping here, and should be way to good for Mannirino.

I think Rublev and Tsistsipas may just struggle today. The court will mess them up, as it takes some getting used too.  I expect one of them to lose  or both their matches to go 3 sets.

Schwartsman playing a much tougher opponent in Giron, and I expect him to lose as well.

 

Edited November 3, 2021 by neilovan
changed 'and' to 'or'

[CzechPunter]

Conny Perrin to beat Francesca Di Lorenzo at 2.10 with Unibet

Perrin had the much better result in the first round, producing a huge upset against Dart. Di Lorenzo struggled to beat someone who I don't exactly rate, so I think the value is firmly with Perrin in this one. If anything, I'd have her as the marginal favorite here.

[neilovan]

5 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Conny Perrin to beat Francesca Di Lorenzo at 2.10 with Unibet

Perrin had the much better result in the first round, producing a huge upset against Dart. Di Lorenzo struggled to beat someone who I don't exactly rate, so I think the value is firmly with Perrin in this one. If anything, I'd have her as the marginal favorite here.

2 things that I have found in betting.

1) The shorter the contest, the more unpredictable (horse racing, T20 cricket etc). So favorites have a much better chance (extra 5%) of winning in a 5 set contest.

2) The lower the quality the more unpredictable. I just don't like betting Challenger level, or when you have players ranked over 125 playing.  It's an absolute roller-coaster ride where anything can happen.

[neilovan]

I watched Alcaraz earlier in the week playing Pierre Hughes Humbert. He could not make basic 2nd serve returns.

I think Sinner wipes the floor with him today.

[Torque]

4 hours ago, neilovan said:

This Paris masters has a very strange court surface. Very slow and low bounce. You can see that players can't get used to it, especially the speed. The ball stops in the court, and when you miss you miss early (ie, you have already hit it, and it is not quite on the racquet), and drag the ball cross court. Tiafoe, Bautista Agut, Basilshvilli, Fognini (maybe injured) all out due to this weird carpet surface.

The Fognini v Fusocovics match was just a horrid, error strewn mess. Even Djokovic struggled against Fuscovics who is confidence drained and playing poorly.

Schwartzman got past Millman yesterday in a 32 game match that had 17 (yes really) serve breaks. That's insane.

 

It looks very difficult to hit somebody off the court (or serve them off the court).

SO I do like the Norrie match up with Opelka who may not get the serving assistance he is used to.

Monfils is simply playing fab tennis. He is a basketball player, or a middle distance athlete with a racquet in his hand. He will take a lot of stopping here, and should be way to good for Mannirino.

I think Rublev and Tsistsipas may just struggle today. The court will mess them up, as it takes some getting used too.  I expect one of them to lose  or both their matches to go 3 sets.

Schwartsman playing a much tougher opponent in Giron, and I expect him to lose as well.

 

Useful insights @neilovan Thanks

[Torque]

8 minutes ago, neilovan said:

2 things that I have found in betting.

1) The shorter the contest, the more unpredictable (horse racing, T20 cricket etc). So favorites have a much better chance (extra 5%) of winning in a 5 set contest.

2) The lower the quality the more unpredictable. I just don't like betting Challenger level, or when you have players ranked over 125 playing.  It's an absolute roller-coaster ride where anything can happen.

Completely agree. The first point is probably the more obvious of the two you make, as a shorter format lends itself to less time for a favourite to recover from a slow start or a spell of poor play. The second point is certainly true in my experience, and makes sense when you consider that lower ranked players are often where they are because they lack consistency which of course leads to inconsistent results. There are lots of examples of players like that - Kokkinakis comes to mind as I write this.

The other point to make about lower ranked players, at least as I understand it, is that moving from 50 in the world to 1 is orders of magnitude more difficult that moving from 150 to 100 even though the rise in spots is the same and so if 150 plays 100 it's far more likely that 150 will be able to win than if 50 plays 1. Rankings give an idea about player ability, but the further down them you go the less differences in ranking seem to matter as a gauge of ability.

[neilovan]

6 hours ago, neilovan said:

This Paris masters has a very strange court surface. Very slow and low bounce. You can see that players can't get used to it, especially the speed. The ball stops in the court, and when you miss you miss early (ie, you have already hit it, and it is not quite on the racquet), and drag the ball cross court. Tiafoe, Bautista Agut, Basilshvilli, Fognini (maybe injured) all out due to this weird carpet surface.

The Fognini v Fusocovics match was just a horrid, error strewn mess. Even Djokovic struggled against Fuscovics who is confidence drained and playing poorly.

Schwartzman got past Millman yesterday in a 32 game match that had 17 (yes really) serve breaks. That's insane.

 

It looks very difficult to hit somebody off the court (or serve them off the court).

SO I do like the Norrie match up with Opelka who may not get the serving assistance he is used to.

Monfils is simply playing fab tennis. He is a basketball player, or a middle distance athlete with a racquet in his hand. He will take a lot of stopping here, and should be way to good for Mannirino.

I think Rublev and Tsistsipas may just struggle today. The court will mess them up, as it takes some getting used too.  I expect one of them to lose  or both their matches to go 3 sets.

Schwartsman playing a much tougher opponent in Giron, and I expect him to lose as well.

 

Great , Monfils injured and struggling, hopefully he retires.

[Torque]

9 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Great , Monfils injured and struggling, hopefully he retires.

Monfils injured - that's a sentence I've read once or twice over the years.

[Torque]

It's always seemed to me that there's more injuries at the end of the season, which makes sense as there's some weary bodies after ten months of tennis. More retirements and withdrawals as well - as players either have nothing much to play for or, like Tsitsipas earlier, to protect themselves for one last push for a big title at the end of the season. Not much sense in trying to play through an injury now, especially as next season isn't that far away.

[neilovan]

4 minutes ago, Torque said:

It's always seemed to me that there's more injuries at the end of the season, which makes sense as there's some weary bodies after ten months of tennis. More retirements and withdrawals as well - as players either have nothing much to play for or, like Tsitsipas earlier, to protect themselves for one last push for a big title at the end of the season. Not much sense in trying to play through an injury now, especially as next season isn't that far away.

It's a very tough business. Endless travel, hotels, taxis, planes, practice ... and for most defeat. Players have had enough at this stage. But then you get guys like Mannarino, Duckworth and Koepfer, that are making their year, for next year.

Edited November 3, 2021 by neilovan

[neilovan]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

I watched Alcaraz earlier in the week playing Pierre Hughes Humbert. He could not make basic 2nd serve returns.

I think Sinner wipes the floor with him today.

Got that spot on:(  Horrid damn court though. Don't know how you can she ball with no court backing, and people in your line of sight.

Edited November 3, 2021 by neilovan

[neilovan]

9 hours ago, neilovan said:

This Paris masters has a very strange court surface. Very slow and low bounce. You can see that players can't get used to it, especially the speed. The ball stops in the court, and when you miss you miss early (ie, you have already hit it, and it is not quite on the racquet), and drag the ball cross court. Tiafoe, Bautista Agut, Basilshvilli, Fognini (maybe injured) all out due to this weird carpet surface.

The Fognini v Fusocovics match was just a horrid, error strewn mess. Even Djokovic struggled against Fuscovics who is confidence drained and playing poorly.

Schwartzman got past Millman yesterday in a 32 game match that had 17 (yes really) serve breaks. That's insane.

 

It looks very difficult to hit somebody off the court (or serve them off the court).

SO I do like the Norrie match up with Opelka who may not get the serving assistance he is used to.

Monfils is simply playing fab tennis. He is a basketball player, or a middle distance athlete with a racquet in his hand. He will take a lot of stopping here, and should be way to good for Mannirino.

I think Rublev and Tsistsipas may just struggle today. The court will mess them up, as it takes some getting used too.  I expect one of them to lose  or both their matches to go 3 sets.

Schwartsman playing a much tougher opponent in Giron, and I expect him to lose as well.

 

So all 4 of these are winners. It's quite interesting to see the improvement of players after they have had a match or two on the surface. ALcaraz, night and day between this match with Sinner and the previous one with Herbert. For me the Cilic v Korda match is a complete lottery.  Medvedev may struggle against Ivashka who is pretty damn good. I think Medvedev may drop a set while he finds his feet on this weird surface. First set tie breaker or 7-5 so I would definitely be going over 19.5 games in this one.

[neilovan]

At this time of the year players fall into two categories. Highly motivated or holiday mode. The ATP finals race will seriously motivate players. A huge payday awaits where a decent week can nett 500K Euro's . The alternate (who hangs around all week collects 200k). The race to the ATP finals looks like this, with one tournament to go after this one.

7th) Casper Ruud	3,105
8th) Jannik Sinner	3,015
9th) Rafael Nadal*	2,985
10th) Hubert Hurkacz	2,955
11th) Cameron Norrie	2,875
12th) Felix Auger-Aliassime	2,420

 

Sinner and Auger Aliasimme are done, but Ruud, Hurkacz and Norrie are looking to fill the last 2 spots.  Both Koepfer and Duckworth have exceeded their expectations here, and are playing with house money. Anything more is a bonus for both of them, but I think they both lose today. Not great odds  for Popyrin and Hurkacz, but a double returns even money which is decent. Popyrin looking reasonably good indoors, while Hurkacz should have too much for lucky loser Koepfer.

I think a motivated Casper Ruud will also get the better of Giron.

The two interesting matches are Djoko v Monfils (17-0 record) and Zverev v Dimitrov. Forget most of the 17-0 Djoko record. I think this new version of Monfils can run him very close. Djoko slightlly underdone, while Monfils looks terrific.

I don't think Zverev will get the fast court assistance that he craves for his serve. Dimitrov, resurgent, is definitely in with a shot here. I expect both these games to go over 19.5 games, with no blowouts.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 4, 2021 by neilovan

[888888]

Monfils in interview said he was kind of hurt , of course true or not only him knows :  

"Déjà à 100 %, je ne le bats pas, donc ce n'est pas à 60 % que j'aurai une chance", sourit Monfils ==> while smiling Monfils said when i am 100% i can't beat Djoko so it's not when i am at 60% that i'll have a chance.

 

[vvararu]

3 hours ago, neilovan said:

At this time of the year players fall into two categories. Highly motivated or holiday mode. The ATP finals race will seriously motivate players. A huge payday awaits where a decent week can nett 500K Euro's . The alternate (who hangs around all week collects 200k). The race to the ATP finals looks like this, with one tournament to go after this one.

7th) Casper Ruud	3,105
8th) Jannik Sinner	3,015
9th) Rafael Nadal*	2,985
10th) Hubert Hurkacz	2,955
11th) Cameron Norrie	2,875
12th) Felix Auger-Aliassime	2,420

 

Sinner and Auger Aliasimme are done, but Ruud, Hurkacz and Norrie are looking to fill the last 2 spots.  Both Koepfer and Duckworth have exceeded their expectations here, and are playing with house money. Anything more is a bonus for both of them, but I think they both lose today. Not great odds  for Popyrin and Hurkacz, but a double returns even money which is decent. Popyrin looking reasonably good indoors, while Hurkacz should have too much for lucky loser Koepfer.

I think a motivated Casper Ruud will also get the better of Giron.

The two interesting matches are Djoko v Monfils (17-0 record) and Zverev v Dimitrov. Forget most of the 17-0 Djoko record. I think this new version of Monfils can run him very close. Djoko slightlly underdone, while Monfils looks terrific.

I don't think Zverev will get the fast court assistance that he craves for his serve. Dimitrov, resurgent, is definitely in with a shot here. I expect both these games to go over 19.5 games, with no blowouts.

 

 

 

 

Duckworth is not here by chance. He played well lately on hard beating Krajinovic, Millman, Ivashka, Bautista-Agut, Musetti.

[Torque]

Sascha also looking slightly injured. So a few trappy matches today. Tread carefully.

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, Duckworth is stringing together a second career. His recent improvement is by no means small and I was surprised to see him play so well in some recent matches.

[CzechPunter]

James Duckworth (+4) to beat Hubert Hurkacz at 1.76 with Pinnacle

Have to back Duckworth again, he's done well against Popyrin today and he can defeat or at least trouble Hurkacz tomorrow. He seems to be more comfortable with the surface and his serve is as big a weapon as it is for Hurkacz, could be tight just because of that. Hurkacz can go missing at times, while Duckworth should be freerolling this. He's made it to the top 50 I believe with his recent string of wins even.

[Teodore]

Agree @CzechPunterbut remember that Hurkacz is high motivated to secure ATP finals place. 

[rainz]

The more Hurkacz want to play better and show up, the worst he plays.