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About Benny1887

  • Birthday 01/25/1994

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  1. Verl - Dortmund II Dortmund II +0 @1.86 (Pinnacle) Verl are without their best player Rabihic and topscorer Putaro. Also, strong Sapina is out. So their biggest strength, their offensive, is severely weakened. Their defense is one of the worst ones in this league. They are really so shaky in the defense, almost every attack is dangerous when you watch Verl defending. This can be fatal against a team of Dortmund's quality. Dortmund start with Knauff today, a guy who has had some playing time in the Bundesliga side already. Their offensive quality is beyond doubts. Also, the home advantage is minimal here. Verl play in a foreign stadium, and there will barely be any fan support today. It's almost rather a neutral venue spot. Due to those reasons, Dortmund II are certainly the favourites in this match.
  2. Sandhausen - Paderborn (03.12.) Paderborn (+0) @1.84 (Pinnacle) The market is overreacting here on the lineups. Paderborn is without superstar Michel and his partner Platte, and the lineup is surprising. But still, they should never be +0 against poor Sandhausen. In fact, the probably second worst team in the league plays against one of the best ones. Paderborn have a lot of pace upfront with their changes in the lineup. Sandhausen's slow back four should have difficulties with that. Also, the home advantage is minor due to the covid-restrictions. It's a classic case of market overreacting. No way Paderborn should be +0 against Sandhausen because they are still better on almost every position and obviously have a lot more confidence compared with Sandhausen, who were destroyed two times in a row (conceded 8 goals in 2 games).
  3. Viktoria Berlin - Turkgucu Munchen Viktoria Berlin +0 @1.72 (Pinnacle) Viktoria Berlin play the much better and more attractive football compared to Turkgucu, who still do not have a new manager (it will be the second game among their interims manager Kayabunar). Both teams have been in a crisis in terms of results, but Viktoria do not have to worry at all about their performances. Last week was another good example to confirm that. They played away at Saarbrucken, one of the big teams in this league. Especially in the first half, only Viktoria were playing and they closely missed the goal several times. Defensively, they allowed nothing against one of the best offensives in the league. Also in the second half, they were still on eyes level and then lost unluckily due to two late goals. By contrast, Turkgucu showed another plain performance with boring football on Monday against Zwickau. They created 3 chances in the entire match and needed a late own goal out of blue air to still equalise. I simply don't like how they play. Their pace is too low, and they have a highly skilled playmaker, Sararer, but he is the only guy creating dangerous moments. All in all, this is not enough, and it is not surprise that they have been playing a very disappointing season so far (they already fired two managers). Altogether, Viktoria are playing on a clearly better level with better pace and so on, even though best player Cigerci will be out (he's been out for several weeks before already anyway). Due to this, I do think that +0 is a fantastic option.
  4. Darmstadt - Fortuna Dusseldorf (03.12.) Fortuna Dusseldorf (+0.75) @1.79 (Pinnacle) To make it brief and short: 2-3 weeks ago, this would have went in as +0.25 1.95 or so on Dusseldorf. Due to Darmstadt's winning streak and Dusseldorf's bad results, the market is overreacting which results in way too one-sided odds for this match. In theory, Düsseldorf actually even have the better squad with the better individual players. Darmstadt are among the most positive surprises of the season, especially because their 4-4-2 with two strikers, Tietz + Pfeiffer, works extremely well. Both strikers are on fire. Düsseldorf will react with 3 defenders today which should be a good idea, so that they will always have a numerical advantage. In general, Düsseldorf have extreme problems in making the running, but the role as an underdog is much more suitable for them. They made one of their best season games at Hamburg when they were underdogs and had less ball possession than their opponent. It also not by chance that they collect more points away than at home. Also, Darmstadt is not as good as the table shows, they should rather end somewhere between 4th and 7th rank. Those odds are definitely too large on Dusseldorf. They are much better when they do not have to make the running and despite some missings, they should be at least on eyes level in terms of quality. Those big odds do not reflect the quality gap between both sides.
  5. Corona cases at Ingolstadt - not clear who and how many. I wouldn't bet among those circumstances anymore and wait for further news Cheers
  6. Hansa Rostock - Ingolstadt (04.12.) Ingolstadt (+0.5) @1.90 (Singbet) Odds would have been too high anyway because it is a well-known fact that Rostock have enormous difficulties to make the running at home, and they also did not manage to beat Sandhausen (1:1) and in their last home game, Aue (1:2). They are rather a counter side that does not find solutions against defensive opponents. So, they actually should not be -0.5 like ever in this league because as long as they do not hold the lead, they will always have big problems to come to chances. But today news have been published that only 1000 fans will be allowed, and those tickets will be given to deprived people, so no fan support will be expected. This is a big blow for the team that has the perhaps home atmosphere of all BL2 sides. It is painful for them to be without their amazing support, and it will be even tougher to make the running and crack a deep defense without their fans. Concerning Ingolstadt, they have been improving dramatically in the last few games. Results have not rewarded them yet, but they are not really comparable with the team of early season anymore (also due to important players having returned from injuries). They are still weak, of course, but not really worse than Rostock, and especially in their last two away games, they played very well as underdogs. This should be a very close game, and I can imagine very well that Rostock in this spot is the ideal place to get the first season victory or at least not lose.
  7. FT 1:3 - Lost - All in all, Mannheim's win was deserved even though 1860 missed a penalty shortly after the 1:2. Mannheim played an excellent first half, in which 1860 should have taken the lead, but after the 0:1 and the 0:2, it was a very one-sided match. 1860's reaction in the second half was good, and they missed 3 big chances in the first 5 minutes of the 2nd half. But all in all, Mannheim were the better team today.
  8. 1860 Munich - Waldhof Mannheim 1860 Munich +0 @1.79 (Singbet) It is going to be a special game for 1860 Munich because it will be the last game with fans for at least the rest of the year. Saying this, it means only 25% capacity and ultras do not support due to protests against those restrictions. Nevertheless, the home factor should be there because everybody knows that it will be the last game. On top of that, it is a super important match due to the table. A win today would bring 1860 much closer to their promotion dreams since Mannheim are direct competitors. In general, 1860 Munich are the best team in the league behind overmighty Magdeburg, A mixture of bad luck and a lack of defensive stability, however, has brought them to the midfield of the table. They had an incredible series of consecutive draws, and luck really was not on their side in many games. But we should not forget one thing: 1860 were doubtlessly the best 3. Liga team last season (all experts did agree on that), and they kept all players plus they signed good additions like Bär or Deichmann. So, in theory, this squad should certainly achieve promotion. Recently, they have been back on track after all. The very convincing DFB Pokal win against Schalke was the start, then they crushed Freiburg II at home (6:0), and showed further strong performances, especially at home. Except for Wein, they have all important players available today. Mannheim are among the most positive surprises in this season as well. They display some fantastic offensive football, but mostly at home. Away from home, they just do not manage to play the same entertaining high tempo football which they display in front of their own fans. Also, their team is less experienced and mature than the one of 1860. They come from an away win at weak Duisburg, but honestly, they allowed quite a lot defensively against a weak offensive. Their most experienced player, Höger, is doubtful for today. Altogether, 1860 should not have a +0 line at home against any team in the league except for Magdeburg. They are actually slightly better than Mannheim and play at home among those special, but to some extent, certainly motivating circumstances, so +0 is a truly great option.
  9. FT 2:3 - Won - The win for St Pauli was rather lucky. Nurnberg had a surplus on chances, whereas St Pauli benefitted from their great start (used 2 out of 3 big chances first 10 minutes). After the 2:3, however, St Pauli didnt allow a single shot anymore. But at least a draw would have been deserved for Nurnberg.
  10. FT 0:0 - Won - The draw was the fair result. Wehen had the better chances in the first half, and Verl in the second one. But in one situation Verl was lucky: TV pictures could not say if it was handball on the goalline or not. But perhaps it should have been Red Card + penalty after 30 minutes. 50/50 spot. FT 0:0 - Void - It was very, very unlucky for Kaiserslautern not to win this. Dortmund had the better start, but Kaiserslautern had the biggest chance in the first half when hitting the bar. In the second half, only Kaiserslautern were playing. They missed 3 times (!) the empty net. In the very last situation of the match, Ritter had the empty net in front of him and instead of shooting, he went for another dribbling and screw it up. Crazy...
  11. Dortmund II - Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern @1.93 (Pinnacle) Kaiserslautern should be the favourites here. Together with Mannheim, they currently are the best team in the league behind Magdeburg. Their defense is super solid and does not allow much (Kraus and goalkeeper Raab are out today, but equal replacements are there as we saw last week when they allowed no chance vs. Wehen), and their offensive has a high individual quality. Also, their set pieces have been extremely strong in the last couple of weeks. Altogether, I even see them as the most mature team in 3. Liga at the moment. Dortmund II, by contrast, are not so good anymore as earlier in this season. It has to do with injuries (best player Pasalic injured some weeks ago), and also Knauff does not have much playing time in the second team anymore. For today, Knauff and probably Zagadou will be unavailable due to first team duties. If I go through their performances of the last weeks, I could not name a really convincing one. After four consecutive defeats, they won away at Halle last week, but it had nothing to do with the attractive football of earlier in this season, rather they won this thanks to efficiency and because Halle were unlucky at finishing. Altogether, Kaiserslautern are the currently much better and much more mature team. They should surely be favourites here.
  12. Wehen - Verl Verl +0.75 @1.74 (Pinnacle) There are perhaps two main reasons why we have a value spot on Verl: First of all, in terms of quality and the way how both teams have been playing lately, the differences are not very big at all. Both teams have their strengths in the offensive while being shaky in the defense. Actually, Verl have been playing even more attractively compared with Wehen. Wehen come from an away defeat at Kaiserslautern and an embarassing regional cup knock-out at 6th division side Friedberg. In the Kaiserslautern-game, they basically had no goalscoring chance in the entire match. By contrast, Verl delivered against Saarbrücken and played well, but lost because the guests were very clinical (2:4). And the second big reason why this line does not make sense is because the home advantage is almost non-existing here. Wehen is a team with almost no fan support, and they actually even tend to play better away than at home. On the other hand, Verl have 38 away games per season because they are not allowed to play in their own stadium. Due to the relatively even quality and form of both sides and the non-existing home factor, we have a clear value bet on Verl here.
  13. Nurnberg - St Pauli St Pauli +0 @1.84 (Pinnacle) In short: Nürnberg are the most overperforming team in 2. Bundesliga, and they are much worse than the table shows. Last week, they won in Sandhausen in an undeserved way. Sandhausen had a clear surplus on chances, while Nurnberg scored the (irregular) winning goal with the very last action of the game. Against Sandhausen as well, St Pauli played on Tuesday, and they totally destroyed them (at home though). It could have easily been 3:0 after 15 minutes. Generally spoken, Nurnberg are a mediocre team in this league with their strengths in the defense and at counter play. Offensively, they are pretty plain and almost all of their attacks are being performed by ex St Pauli-player Moeller-Daehli. It's quite predictable. Through the wings, they do not create enough danger because their wing backs Handwerker and Valentini are very bad with crosses. They also lack a clinical striker. They won many close games which is why they are ranked so high in the table, but they are not a serious promotion candidate. The total opposite is true of St Pauli. They are the best team in 2. Bundesliga. Their last away game at Darmstadt, when they were down 4:0 at half time, was a complete blackout. But it was their only really bad game in the entire year 2021. After they had already been the most successful BL2 team in the second half of 20/21, they are now even better, and I don't see them not promoting in the end. Their quality, especially in the offensive, is quite outstanding in this league. Also, I forgot to mention that, Nürnberg were terrible in their last home game against Bremen (1:2). If Bremen, who are worse than Pauli, would have used their chances more efficiently, it would have been at least a 1:4, so it's that Nurnbergs defense has lately been as solid as in the early stages of the season. In my opinion, the quality gap between both sides is too large to justify a +0 line. St Pauli need to have another very bad day on the road - which I don't see coming after the impressive performance against Sandhausen on Tuesday - so that Nurnberg could win this. Or Nurnberg need to be very lucky, but in the long run, +0 on St Pauli should certainly be a winning investment in the long run.
  14. FT 1:1 Void - The draw was fair. Ingolstadt were better in the first half and took the lead through a deflected shot from long range. They then missed a huge chance for a potential 2:0. Karlsruhe's equaliser after a corner came out of blue air. In the second half, Karlsruhe were better and much closer to the 1:2, but they did not create enough big chances.
  15. FT 1:1 Half lost - The draw was more than deserved for Bremen, but the penalty in 90+9 was scandalous. Until the late 0:1, Bremen were more active and closer to take the lead. Schalke, who did not invest much offensively, took the lead after a goalkeeper mistake. Everything pointed to an away win until the VAR gifted a penalty to Bremen with the very last situation of the game.
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