Tennis Tips - November 15 - November 21

[CzechPunter]

[neilovan]

So, first match of the ATP finals done and dusted. Very interesting to see Medvedev come through without facing a break point. Tells you a lot. Totally different conditions to Paris.

Balls are faster, court is faster ... serving well, becomes a very big asset, but returning even more so. Djokovic will be in his element here.

Zverev will also enjoy the speedy conditions, and nobody has been serving as well as he has. He's playing super 1st strike tennis. Berrettini will also take some breaking here, because his serve is a super weapon.

As for the match, Hurkacz let an opportunity slip here. Gifted both serve breaks to Medvedev ... what was quite strange was how poor his body language was. Very negative. On the flip side, Medvedev has really matured ... and handled the tough moments really well. As soon as he hurried Hurkacz, he was in control.

Can't see many breaks in the Zverev match tonight. Would be going 3 sets  at odds of 2.62, and definitely over 22.5 games. 1st set looks like a breaker already. The Italian crowd may rev Berrettini up a little, so he may have to throttle back and control himself.

 

[CzechPunter]

Will be interesting to see how Djokovic handles things for sure. One funny thing are the official photos. A couple of years back he was the second tallest I believe, just below Berdych. Now he's the second shortest?

[DrO]

Yup,it's just amazing how tall they are. These younger players.

[888888]

Swiatek - Badosa 

Badosa is already qualified for semi-finals tomorrow , so she is playing for nothing , will she be motivated knowing tomorrow she has a big game? 

Swiatek just the same is playing for nothing but this being the last match of her season she might be a bit more motivated?

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, 888888 said:

Swiatek - Badosa 

Badosa is already qualified for semi-finals tomorrow , so she is playing for nothing , will she be motivated knowing tomorrow she has a big game? 

Swiatek just the same is playing for nothing but this being the last match of her season she might be a bit more motivated?

Just so strange to see the body language at the end of the match at the WTA. They lose a match and it's like the earth has stopped spinning. Last night Krecjikova looked as sour as lemon stew after losing to Pliskova. The most miniscule  handshake, with no good luck or congratulation. Pretty sour losers aplenty. Yet you look at the ATP finals and it's a different vibe ... somehow way more respect. Quite Bizarre.

I think that Rublev beats Tsistipas today.  The court will really suite Novak and I think he cruises in 2 sets , 2 snd 3 or similar. 

WTA Badosa will beat Swiatek. Just too good,  Probably the best, or close to all around ball striker in womans tennis. I think Sabalenka has a melt down against Sakkari. 

[Foo_Fighter]

On 11/14/2021 at 5:52 PM, neilovan said:

Zverev will also enjoy the speedy conditions, and nobody has been serving as well as he has. He's playing super 1st strike tennis.

Zverev is (by far) the best tennis player in the world, and only a small handful of us are even noticing. The guy should have already been the #1 in men's tour and absolutely dominate almost everywhere (hard, grass & clay).

[Torque]

9 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Zverev is (by far) the best tennis player in the world, and only a small handful of us are even noticing. The guy should have already been the #1 in men's tour and absolutely dominate almost everywhere (hard, grass & clay).

Not quite yet in my opinion. His serve is still not reliable enough, although it seems to be improving and his double fault numbers are down. Also, there's no way he can be called the best in the world until his Slam record improves.

[Torque]

Also, if he deserved to be at the top of the rankings, that is where he would be. Even if the ranking system hadn't been changed in response to coronavirus, I don't think he would be ahead of Djokovic.

[neilovan]

12 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Zverev is (by far) the best tennis player in the world, and only a small handful of us are even noticing. The guy should have already been the #1 in men's tour and absolutely dominate almost everywhere (hard, grass & clay).

In the majors, I'm not sure that being the best player means that you win. It's partially an ability problem, and then partially a physical one. How well does your body recover, and are you able to play every match, refueled and at 100%. Djokovic (over the years) has figured out the recovery process almost perfectly, and he has a huge advantage over younger players who are still in the discovery process here, 

In a 3 set match, the physical is probably 25%, but in 5 setters it's probably near 40%. That's why he is so hard to beat at the majors. He is physically always close to his best, going deep into the 2nd week.  

On a strange note. There was a match in the WTA in Montevideo yesterday. Score was 6-2 3-6 0-6. In 23 games there were 16 serve breaks  :).  

Should see Sinner against Hurkacz in the late match today.

 

 

Edited November 16, 2021 by neilovan

[four-leaf]

@CzechPunter  Toshihide Matsui is playing again today in Helsinki in doubles 40 years old.

[four-leaf]

[neilovan]

Early match today in ATP finals Djokovic v Rublev.

I was not impressed with Djokovic against Ruud. Ruud played a little passively and actually handed Djokovic the match. There is definitely a big step up from Hurkacz and Ruud to the next 4, and then from those guys to the top 2 (Medvedev and Djoko). Sinner demolished Hurkacz, and it was easy for Djoko first match.

I like Rublev. I think he would be an interesting guest, and a nice person to hang out with. Quite hard on himself, but you can see he has an easy going nature, and a quick smile.  There is a lot more to him than meets the eye. But maybe his biggest problem or obstacle is just to get out of his own way. Just chill, and let the game flow, and fire. I like his first strike tennis behind the serve.  Tsistipas was not terrible against him, but Rublev served really well. He was very good, and maybe people are underestimating him.

I definitely think Rublev can cause an upset here. The court speed and balls seems to suite a nippy, quick player, who's light on his feet. Sinner took Hurkacz to pieces yesterday. Little guy versus a big one.  Djoko looks like he is going through the motions, and may be a little mentally/physically flat (probably zoning in for the Aussie Open and more holiday). The only thing that matters for him now are majors, The rest is 'been there, done that' (multiple times). I think he could definitely be beaten here.

Tsitsipas v Ruud

Ruud has had a great year, but he is a little overmatched in this tournament. Excellent forehand, but no weapons, and thus no free points. His game is still in development phase. For me, the one handed backhand is a thing of the past. It will be gone totally in 4 or 5 years time. The two handed shot far more economical, and it does not break down. Tsisipas has a far better backhand, and this is probably where this match gets decided. I think odds of 1.57 are very generous, and expect the Greek to win here, relatively easily.

Quite interesting that in two matches , Medvedev has faced 4 break points (non against Hurkacz and I think 4 against Zverev), and has not lost his serve .  Pretty impressive numbers.

Edited November 17, 2021 by neilovan

[DrO]

 

[DrO]

As for a Djokovic - Rublev match.
If Novak serves like he did in most of the previous match,i doubt Rublev stand a chance. And no,Novak didn't come to Finals for anything but to win it. There's a Davis Cup also behind the corner and Novak wants to end the year with style.

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, DrO said:

As for a Djokovic - Rublev match.
If Novak serves like he did in most of the previous match,i doubt Rublev stand a chance. And no,Novak didn't come to Finals for anything but to win it. There's a Davis Cup also behind the corner and Novak wants to end the year with style.

I appreciate that Novak is pretty good, but Rublev played really badly.

[DrO]

7 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I appreciate that Novak is pretty good, but Rublev played really badly.

Agree on that.

Problem with Rublev is that he doesn't have plan 'B' in his game. When things start to go wrong he doesn't know what to do. Also,he's not feeling comfortible playing against the guys with solid backhand which Novak exactly have.

[neilovan]

39 minutes ago, DrO said:

Agree on that.

Problem with Rublev is that he doesn't have plan 'B' in his game. When things start to go wrong he doesn't know what to do. Also,he's not feeling comfortible playing against the guys with solid backhand which Novak exactly have.

I think it was a bit of a freebee for him. He just gotta beat Norrie.

[CzechPunter]

Jannik Sinner (+1.5 sets) to beat Daniil Medvedev at 1.83 with Pinnacle

Sinner free-rolling is always dangerous and he showed that in his first match here. This will be a tougher test, but he has what it takes and Medvedev might be a bit off after those two wins.

[DrO]

I think there's a decent chance for Norrie to take something from tonight's match against Djokovic.

Novak never played against him so i guess it will take some time for Novak to figure out the right game plan. Also,Novak tends to be a little bit sloppy when it comes to these 3rd round matches,and he's already thru.

I like overs here..margin of 19.5 games is appealing and the odds are nice too.

[CzechPunter]

Well, seems like Novak wanted to make a statement ahead of tomorrow. Hard to see beyond the favorites for me, though Zverev will feel confident.

[four-leaf]

Lammons/Withrow - Roelofse/Rungkat over 20.5 games at 1.92 in-play with Unibet 

[Foo_Fighter]

I consider Zverev the favorite to win the match tonight. In fact, I can hardly see Novak even grabbing a set. 

 

Call me a leper if you want lol. (I don't care)

[Torque]

7 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

I consider Zverev the favorite to win the match tonight. In fact, I can hardly see Novak even grabbing a set. 

 

Call me a leper if you want lol. (I don't care)

You'll certainly get good odds for Sascha in straights. Good luck if you play 

[Foo_Fighter]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

You'll certainly get good odds for Sascha in straights. Good luck if you play 

Found his straight set victory at 5.9 actually. And his win at 3.35. I believe Zverev is more ambitious than he looks. It's a shame that the Italian crowd will be extremely in favor of Djokovic though. Is it because of... Djokovic speaking Italian(lol)? I know that the obvious answer is that Novak remains the established and indisputable #1 in the world for years, but come on, it's gotta be a bit more than that... quite ridiculous. Nowhere else on the planet does he enjoy the amount of support he gets in Italy (besides Serbia of course). It's as if he's disguised as Roger Federer lol.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Foo_Fighter

[Torque]

He's very popular in China as well as I understand it. That might be about to change though if he plays a part in tournaments being boycotted over the Peng situation.

[DrO]

He donated a sum of one million euros to hospital in Bergamo last year,due to big corona virus crisis in Italy back then.
That's one of the reasons for being popular there and why Italians treat him nicely,i guess.

[Foo_Fighter]

1 minute ago, DrO said:

He donated a sum of one million euros to hospital in Bergamo last year,due to big corona virus crisis in Italy back then.
That's one of the reasons for being popular there and why Italians treat him nicely,i guess.

It's certainly not that. The love for Djokovic has always been on par with Roger in Italy. His generous donation might have given an extra boost to this love though.

[Torque]

29 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Found his straight set victory at 5.9 actually. And his win at 3.35. I believe Zverev is more ambitious than he tends to look. It's a shame that the Italian crowd will be extremely in favor of Djokovic though. Is it because of... Djokovic speaking Italian(lol)? I know that the obvious answer is that Novak remains the established and indisputable #1 in the world for years, but come on, it's gotta be a bit more than that... quite ridiculous. Nowhere else on the planet does he enjoy the amount of support he gets in Italy (besides Serbia of course). It's as if he's disguised as Roger Federer lol.

I don't think crowd support for Djokovic will affect Zverev. If he can play at the high level he's been playing at for the last few months against the backdrop of the domestic allegations against him, I don't think a partisan crowd will bother him in the slightest.

[DrO]

Realy don't know..his wife,Jelena,went to college in Milano i think..also he tends to go very often to Italian Alps (Mountains) for some kind of recovery after a great but very exhausting runs that he had in the past..he is AC Milan supporter as well..so obviosly plenty of reasons for that "special bond" between Novak and some Italians..

@Foo_Fighter