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U.K. snooker

dcurry1

By dcurry1
in Snooker Predictions

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I agree that Ford is a good price. Wish i got 300s. Bit late to this event. On his day he can beat anybody. Here's what I've gone with :

2pts M.Allen to win UK Championship 16/1 bet365
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1.5pts e/w Y.Bingtao to win UK Championship 22/1 bet365
1.5pts e/w M.Williams to win UK Championship 25/1 bet365
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0.5pts e/w D.Gilbert to win UK Championship 33/1 bet365
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0.25pts e/w C.Yupeng to win UK Championship 150/1 bet365
0.25pts e/w T.Ford to win UK Championship 100/1 bet365

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Posted
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44 minutes ago, Robaldo said:

Anyone else fancy astley for today? Also +3,5 frames for Yang seems value to mee @1,71 @betFIRST.

No I don't fancy Astley at all - and neither does the market. He played well against Robertson when his chances came, but the bottom line is he had way more chances than he should have had and that was because Robertson missed pots he wouldn't normally miss and played numerous poor safety shots. I'd say Joyce is worth a straight win bet.

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The other thing to consider is it's often the case that a player gets a big, shock win and then promptly loses in the next round in a match that they have a better chance of winning than the shock win. Happened earlier with Juihai - comes up against Dale, a much more winnable match than Murphy, and he loses.

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Robaldo

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13 hours ago, Torque said:

The other thing to consider is it's often the case that a player gets a big, shock win and then promptly loses in the next round in a match that they have a better chance of winning than the shock win. Happened earlier with Juihai - comes up against Dale, a much more winnable match than Murphy, and he loses.

I agreed with that. Astley had hij chances to go 5-2 up but still manager to lose. Not to bad of a bet still I feel when you consider the price I could win. I think it is mostly the weakness of grace that made me play this one

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four 1pm matches today and four 7pm matches

I think Yupeng and King both have chances tonight. Yupeng, I've backed a few times over the last couple months as I think he is close to going deep in a tournament. He tends to make that one bad decision to lose a match. He is playing well, with 2 centuries in the win over Gould and 2 against Jones. Hawkins hasn't hit one century in this tournament yet. Yupeng also has a half decent record against Hawkins having beat him at Championship League last time out.

5pts Yupeng to beat Hawkins 6/5 paddypower
1pt accy - Xintong, Yupeng and King +3.5 frames 13/1 paddypower

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I think it's fair enough to call it a shock, both in terms of Higgins failing to win from 5-3 up and also in terms of respective form - Xintong hasn't done much recently and lost 5-4 against Hill just the other week from 3-0 and 4-2 up, and then he wins the last three frames against one of the best players ever. That said, Higgins hadn't played all that well despite getting to 5-3 ahead and once it went to 5-4 and especially after Higgins missed a chance to win 6-4 there was almost an inevitability that he would lose. The red he went for in the final frame which proved to be his final shot looked like a cop out as it was such a difficult shot, almost as though he didn't have the energy for a long and possibly scrappy decider and so it was a case of 'if this red goes in I might clear up and if it doesn't I'll probably lose, but at least it'll be over soon one way or the other' 

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charliepie

charliepie

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On 11/29/2021 at 6:47 PM, Foo_Fighter said:

Ben Woollaston to beat Liam Highfield at 1.9 with bet365

Hossein Vafaei to beat Xiao Guodong at 2.00 with bet365 

I have a pretty good feeling about these two. Good luck.

Good double there, glad Vafaei followed up his win over Selby and good to see Ben win a few matches as he's a bit of a journeyman(a bit like Joe Perry).

Walden vs Hamilton, a bit like watching two amateurs down at the local snooker club! Hard work they are making of it...

I thought Higgins losing from 5-3 was a bit of a shock too.

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Not sure it can be called a shock when he has lost the last 3 against Xintong. Like mentioned pre match, Xintong came into the match in good form with couple centuries against Un-Nooh and anybody beating Un-Nooh is going to be playing well after he had hit 5 centuries against Hendry. Just the one for me and it's in tonights matches. I'm going with McGill on the handicap to beat Brown. Brown, for me, has had a nice route in this UK Championships. He's played Duane Jones, Ajaib and Joyce. His scoring hasn't matched up to McGill though, who has beaten Yuelong, Grace and Boiko. McGill has gradually got better in this tournament and after hitting 1 century and 4 50+ breaks against Grace, he followed it up with 2 centuries and 3 50+ breaks against a good opponent, in Yuelong. I'm going to take him on the -1.5 handicap.

6pts McGill -1.5 frames to beat Brown 4/6 paddypower

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We're getting to the latter stages of the tournament now. By end of play tonight it will be the Quarter Finals mapped out and many big names have fallen. Here is the today's line up :

Hamilton Vs Brecel (1pm)
Lisowski Vs Vafaei (1pm)
Selt Vs Hawkins (7pm)
Gilbert Vs Hicks (7pm)

Hamilton can probably consider himself somewhat fortunate of having the chance to make a Quarter Finals of a ranking event when he plays Luca Brecel today. My outright pick pre tournament of Mark Williams looked in great shape until he fell asleep and was shattered with post covid tiredness against him and got hit with a deciding frame fluke, too. Sour grapes aside, Hamilton has a highest break of 88 in the tournament and you're not going to make the latter stages with scoring like that. The match against Walden was awful and on the other hand, Brecel looks to be in abit of form as of late. Maguire never turned up in the last round, but he done the job with a whitewash and he also rather annoyingly took out Tom Ford with a deciding leg after going down 4-5. I think he beats Hamilton with a couple to spare but the value just isn't there for an outright pick.

In the other 1pm match, Jack Lisowski takes on Vafaei. Vafaei has had some big scalps over the last couple of tournaments with big wins against Ronnie and Selby and he has also beaten Allen this season. Inevitbile, the level of play always reduces after a big win though and it put me off backing Vafaei in the last round. We see it all the time, losing to Higginson after beating Ronnie for example this season and it's something to be mindful of. He didn't play particularly great in his win over Guodong, but it was enough for him to win without too much fuss. He will have a harder match today as Lisowski has been pretty impressive in this tournament, with a couple of centuries and 9 50+ breaks in his 3 matches won. Dott could have been a tricky match for Lisowski but he won with ease. Lisowski has a good record against Vafaei, winning 4 of the 5 they've played and that includes winning the last 3. 2 of those 3 were last year and 2 of those 3 were also 4-0 whitewashes. I think Lisowski goes through here.

In the evening matches, Selt plays Hawkins after his thumping of Trump. Selt has had quite a hard route compared to a few others. Bingyu is no mean feat and then he had Perry and Trump. Hawkins has beat Reanne Evans, Yang and Yupeng. Only Yupeng has really put up any kind of resistance though as the other 2 opponents didn't hit a 50+ break between them. It will be interesting to see if Hawkins form continues when he plays somebody who comes back at him. Like I said above, a player tends to lose abit of form after a big win and beating Trump was certainly a big win. Hawkins has beaten in the last couple of matches, including a 10-3 thrashing at the World Championships so that head-to-head record along with likely drop after beating Trump makes me think Hawkins probably goes through. Selt abit of value if Hawkins buckles under abit of scoring pressure.

Finally, final pre-tournament pick, Gilbert takes on Hicks. I thought Mark Allen would go on and win this tournament if I'm honest, before the Gilbert match and at 5-2 up you would think that was a step closer, but Gilbert came back and won 4 in a row and now he has a great chance of going deep here. I fancy him to beat Hicks tonight. He is playing some great stuff and has already won an event this year. Allen probably helped Gilbert in that match but it's up to Gilbert to now take the bull by the horn and go on. He has every chance of making the Quarters and beyond. Nevertheless, the bookies are being abit ridiculous in putting the handicap at -3.5 and offering Hicks at 11/10 on the +3.5 and I'll take that in the 4-fold.

5pts Lisowski (-1.5 frames) to beat Vafaei 11/10 paddypower
1pt 4-fold Brecel (-1.5 frames) / Lisowski (-1.5 frames) / Hicks (+3.5) / Selt 18/1 paddypower (money back if one loses)

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The 18/1 let down by Selt being bloody awful. 3-1 up at the break, you could have said "First to 50" and he'd lost 50-3. 5 frames lost in a row with lots of chances. It's money back on the one lost leg atleast and Hicks has done the job no matter what now (currently 5-4 Hicks) Lisowski also did the job against Vafaei and covering the handicap. Yesterday, McGill also covered the handicap. Onto the Quarters.

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Quarter finals today then. Here is the line up :

McGill Vs Brecel (1pm)
Wilson Vs Ronnie (1pm)
Hawkins Vs Hicks (7pm)
Xintong Vs Lisowski (7pm)

A wade open Quarter finals and you could probably say atleast half of those are unexpected in this stage of the tournament. The first to look at is McGill taking on Luca Brecel. McGill came through 6-3 against Jordan Brown and scored well, with one century and 3 50+ breaks. He's now hit a century in his last 3 matches. Brecel beat Hamilton with ease, 6-1. He hit 3 50+ breaks in that win and barring Ford has still yet to have anybody play well against him. H2H shows Brecel winning all four of their match-ups but they were all over 4 years ago. The last 2 have been 6-4 and a deciding leg and so we should expect a close match, I think. I'm going to take over 9.5 frames.

The main match at 1pm will ofcourse be Ronnie O'Sullivan taking on Kyren Wilson. You never know what you're going to get with Kyren and I've somewhat put him on my ignore list after watching him against Judd Trump in that thrashing. In my opinion, Kyren Wilson has put pressure on himself and that's why he lost so hard against Judd. You see, Wilson has been moaning that he never gets on the "main table" or "table 1" and then Judd came back and said "you got to earn it" so when they then met, all the pressure was on Kyren to perform. We know the rest. I just wonder if we'll see a similarly poor performance now he is on the main table once again and against Ronnie. I'm not looking to get too involved but Paddy are offering Ronnie to win 6-3/6-4 or 6-5 at 5/4 and I'll have a small bet on that. I think this is a 6-3/6-4 Ronnie match.

Evening matches and we start with Hawkins taking on Andy Hicks. I thought the price on Hicks on the handicap was either generous or insulting, if you look at how Hicks has played, but I must admit that I never saw him beating Gilbert. Hicks was just excellent with 6 50+ breaks and it's most likely the best I've seen him play. Hawkins was pretty terrible in the first session against Selt and found himself 3-1 down but after the break, a mix of Selt turning to mush and Hawkins stepping it up meant he won the next 5 back-to-back to go through. These two actually met in the 2015 UK Championships Last 128 and Hawkins won on a deciding leg. The bookies are still offering +3.5 on the handicap but the price isn't as nice this time around. It will go into my accy.

Finally, Xintong takes on Lisowski. These two met last year at the World Grand Prix Quarter Final and Jack won 5-3. Lisowski deserved to beat Vafaei but it could have been different if Vafaei didn't take the last red on from an awkward position and stick it up. If it went in then we would have gone to a deciding leg and we've seen that Lisowski tends to have a weakness in his composure or atleast in his concentration. Xintong has beaten Sijun, Un-Nooh, Higgins and Peter Lines. He has hit 4 centuries in his 4 matches and despite losing abit of concentration himself mid-game against Lines, he put his foot down to win 6-4. I don't think it's an easy one to call and I'm only going to stick the bet into an accy but I would pick Lisowski at a push. I just think that Xintong is due one of his dodgy performances.

5pts Over 9.5 frames McGill Vs Brecel 11/10 paddypower
2pts Ronnie to beat Wilson 6-3/6-4 or 6-4 5/4 paddypower
1pt accy - McGill Vs Brecel (Over 9.5 frames) / O'Sullivan (-1.5 frames) / Hicks (+3.5) / Lisowski 16/1 paddypower (money back if one loses)
 

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