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  1. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 13th August   
    Boreham Wood v Notts County (National League) Not a game I was planning on getting involved, but then originally the home side were 5/4 and now you can get 2/1 and bigger which for me is the wrong price. County did dominate last week against Maidenhead and fully deserved their comfortable win, but this game should be much tougher. As we know Wood are very hard to beat at home and they got off to a very good start when beating Southend 1-0 last week. They ended up with only 9 men on the pitch as well so to hold on was especially impressive. They did only have 4 shots the whole match, but it was a great move for the goal and they could allow Southend to have a lot of the ball because their xG of 0.67 from 11 shots highlights they created very little during the game despite having 68% of possession. You would imagine County will be capable of creating better chances, but then I would imagine Wood will also look to be on the front foot more at home. I'd probably make the away side slight favs, but nowhere near as heavy favs as they are so I am happy to play.   Maidstone v York (National League) I was very happy with the performance from York last week given we are on them ante-post albeit they did beat one of the other tips Woking who were very disappointing. York hadn't had a very good pre-season, but it just highlights that pre-season form is basically meaningless when it comes to the real action. Maidstone did better than I thought they would at Altrincham, but it could be I have overrated Alty and I certainly think York will finish above them this season. I'm surprised that the home side have been backed for this as I think York have the superior side and hopefully that can play out on Saturday.   Yeovil v Wrexham (National League) I really think Yeovil could be in a relegation battle this season and nothing I saw in the live game against Scunthorpe last week changed my mind. They were hardly in the game at all and were slightly fortunate to even score 1 given their xG was just 0.64. Scunthorpe's 2nd goal was a defensive disaster as Yeovil's defence and midfield just allowed Jacob Butterfield to run and run from just inside his own half as they backed off him until he reached the penalty box and he got a shot away and scored. It was literally as if they just let him have an open invitation to score a goal If they defend in a similar way against Wrexham then the Welsh side's attackers should have a field day. They surprisingly made hard work of beating Eastleigh last week, but Eastleigh's goal came via a bad goalkeeping error and after that it was pretty much all Wrexham. They had 20 shots for an xG of 2.14, they had 67.8% possession and most impressively they had an accuracy rate of 85% from the 481 passes they attempted during the game. Take out the keeping error and they win easily and they really ought to do the same on Saturday. Not surprisingly Wrexham have been backed, but they still look value to cover the -1 handicap.   Chorley v Darlington (National League North) The xG's in Chorley's opening game were 0.57 for Chorley and 0.34 for AFC Telford which pretty much sums up the quality of the game. Telford ended up winning it win 1-0 and the goal was pure route one coming from a kick out from the keeper with the ball flicked on for the striker to score. It was also helped by the fact a Chorley defender slipped and in reality, the game should have been goalless. I don't think Chorley look as strong as they did last season and Darlington do so, I think they are overpriced here. They beat my own side Gloucester on the opening day 3-1 and whilst a sending off just after Gloucester had equalised helped, I do think Darlington deserved their victory. I'd make Darlington slight favs to win this.   St Albans v Oxford City (National League South) I was a bit surprised Oxford were beaten 3-1 on the opening day at home to Eastbourne, but I think conceding a penalty after 4 minutes didn't help and then the 2nd goal came on 25 minutes which was a tap in almost on the line from a corner. To come from that in the first game of the season was always going to be tough and I think they are better than they were able to show. They travel to a St Albans side who got a point against Chelmsford in what was a poor game of football. I think Chelmsford will struggle this season so for St Albans to struggle against them doesn't exactly bode well. Oxford made the play-offs last season and I think they will be eyeing up the top 7 again so they will be looking to get their first victory on the board here.   Stourbridge v Tamworth (Southern Premier Central) Our main bets for the title Tamworth hosted the favourites Ilkeston on the opening day of the season and it ended in a 1-1 draw after the teams shared goals in the last 10 minutes. Perfectly satisfactory start to the season for them and I am hoping they can get their first win on the season on Saturday against Stourbridge. It was a heavy 3-0 defeat to Alvechurch on Saturday for their opening game and that suggests things aren't going to get any better for them after a tough season last time around. I'd make Tamworth clear favourites.   Boreham Wood 1pt @ 9/4 with SBK and Bet365 (take up to 7/4) York 1pt @ 2/1 with Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred and SBK (Bet365 are 9/4 and take up to 6/4) Wrexham -1 1pt @ 6/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Skybet (take up to 5/4) Darlington 1pt @ 7/4 with Skybet, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 11/8) Oxford City 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and BetVictor (take up to 6/4) Tamworth 1pt @ 29/20 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 5/4)
  2. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 6th August   
    Not going to go mad on the first weekend as I don't pay much attention to friendlies and things are more based on how I feel teams are going to do during the season. It is just the 3 bets for me on day 1.   Torquay v Oldham Torquay may have missed out on their best chance of promotion when they finished 2nd to Sutton a couple of years ago and then lost in a dramatic play-off final to Hartlepool. That final took place in late June because of Covid and that meant Torquay had little time before the new season started and that certainly hindered Gary Johnson's preparations. They struggled for the first few months of the season and it wasn't really until the 2nd half of the season where they really got going, but by then it was way too late to make a play-off bid. They have lost some of the stars from last season's team, but Johnson is one of the best managers at this level and I trust him to have got a good team together especially having been able to have had a full pre-season. Fans of relegated Oldham will be delighted that a takeover was finalised last week, but that hasn't come soon enough for me and their squad looks short of what is required to be challenging at the right end of the table at the current stage. Manager John Sheridan didn't have a great time of things when he was last manager in this league at Chesterfield and the fact he is in charge doesn't exactly fill me with confidence about their chances for the season either. It could be some money will be spent at some stage, but the squad isn't good enough for me at the moment. Johnson knows this level like the back of his hand and I think he and his Torquay side can get off to the perfect start to the new season.   Hemel Hempstead v Farnborough The away side owe us after losing the title last season and I think they can get off to a winning start on their first season back at this level. They got their business out of the way quite early on and I was impressed with the quality of player they were signing. They might even be capable of sneaking into the play-offs. My feeling is they will be better prepared going into the start of the season than their hosts who had a very underwhelming season last time around. I'm not expecting a great deal of improvement, certainly to start with anyway, and I think it will be an away win here.   Taunton v Welling Given I think Welling are going to have a very good season they look way overpriced to me in this game. Granted Taunton come here on the back of winning the title and the amount of points they won in the final 30 games of the season was staggering. They became winning machines, but I'm not sure they have strengthened all that much in the close season and losing their loanee goalkeeper on the eve of the season is hardly ideal. They might not end up in a relegation battle, but they look a bottom half of the table side to me. I don't need to repeat my views on Welling here given I have covered them in the ante-post preview, but if I am right then they look great value and they are my Nap's on the opening day.   AFC Rushden & Diamonds v Needham Market I think Needham Market look value against Rushden. Rushden lost their manager to Tamworth last season and it looks to me like they could well struggle this time around. There has been a big turn around in players and their squad doesn't look good enough at the moment. Needham Market are a solid team and they are capable of winning this.   Torquay 1pt @ 11/8 with SBK (take up to 6/5) Farnborough 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 13/8) Welling 2.5pts @ 11/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 7/4) Needham Market 1pt @ 21/10 with Betfred, Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 6/4)
  3. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 24th   
    Saturday was reasonable, but could have easily been a full house given Chorley hit the front late on and Sutton were 2 up and comfortable. Still a profit is a profit and we move on to Tuesday night where I have 4 bets.
    Barnet v Hartlepool
    Given how bad Barnet have been in the league on the whole I am still amazed they managed to knock out Burton in the FA Cup Since that they have lost 3-1 to Bromley and 2-0 to Kings Lynn at home and then on Saturday they lost 4-1 at Woking who only had 10 men for an hour of the game. Hartlepool were well beaten by a superb Torquay performance last month, but apart from that they have done fairly well this season. They were impressive in seeing off current bottom side Yeovil 3-1 on Saturday and if they put in another performance like that they can see off Barnet as well.
    Gateshead v Gloucester City
    Here is a surprise for you all I am opposing Gloucester in this game. Obviously I hope I am wrong, but when it comes to punting you have to let head rule heart and I do fear this could be a game where we lose our unbeaten record. City are without Asante due to suspension which is a big loss as it is, but their other striker McClure had to go off on Saturday because of injury. It is unknown at this stage how bad it was and it could be that it was more of a precaution, but if City are missing both I do fear we will struggle to score a goal. Gloucester have also had a lot of football and did look a bit leggy at times on Saturday. Gateshead are in good form themselves and were really good on Saturday when putting 4 past Southport. They are unbeaten in 3 and as we know Gloucester struggle to keep a clean sheet. Every chance 1 could be enough for the home side and I would have the prices for the match the other way round. Therefore at 8/5 I make Gateshead a bet.
    Bath City v Dulwich Hamlet
    Bath have won just once and lost their other 5 games in the league and Dulwich haven't won at all although have managed 4 draws so are one place above their hosts. After conceding 7 in two games Dulwich have at least managed to keep a clean sheet against Dorking and only concede 1 at Hemel on Saturday despite going down to 10 men. Bath played in a poor game against Hampton on Saturday and lost out by a penalty. To me there are signs that Dulwich are close to getting that vital win they need and there is no way Bath should be odds on here.
    Dorking v Oxford City
    I just wonder if Oxford have got on eye on the FA Cup at the moment. They don't seem to be quite hitting the levels they were and certainly not as good as they were against Northampton in Round 1. I think they will be eyeing up Shrewsbury at the weekend and a chance of reaching Round 3 whereas Dorking will be fully focused on this. It was surprising they couldn't find the net against Dulwich a week ago, but they put 3 past Concord on Saturday in a game they ended up with 9 men compared to Concord's 10. They had scored 4 and 3 in their two games prior to the Dulwich one and they are clearly going to be title contenders. I would make them odds on for this and 7/5 makes plenty of appeal.
    Hartlepool 2pts @ 23/20 with William Hill
    Gateshead 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365
    Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365
    Dorking 2.5pts @ 7/5 with Bet365
  4. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 21st   
    Tuesday was a bit of a mess all round with the Havant and Dorking games being called off and switched and then finding draws rather than winners when it came to the bets. Saturday's fixtures look tough, but there are 4 matches which appeal from a betting point of view.
    Kings Lynn v Dover
    Dover look in desperate trouble this season. It is amazing they beat Notts County on the opening day of the season because they have lost 6 of their following 7 games. They have scored just 6 goals and conceded 22 and had another heavy defeat on Tuesday night against Woking. Kings Lynn have had a very mixed time of things as they have managed to concede even more goals, 24 in 9 matches, but they are one of the top scores in the division with 14 goals. They had a good win at Barnet on Tuesday night and even managed to keep a clean sheet. Given the goals they have in them I can see them scoring at least 2 against a poor Dover defence. 21/20 is well worth taking about a home win.
    Wealdstone v Sutton
    This is the live game on BT Sport and I fancy Sutton. I think Wealdstone have had a fair bit of fortune on their side which has seen them pick up plenty of wins. They have had a kind fixture list or in the case of their last win against Halifax end up playing 9 men. They lost 2-0 on Tuesday night against Eastleigh and I think they will struggle against the better teams in the division. Sutton have had a cracking start to the season and have only lost to Notts County so far. They picked up a point on Tuesday against Dagenham, but they are improving so that wasn't a bad result. I am happy to take even money about an away win as I think Sutton will be too strong for the home side.
    Guiseley v Gloucester
    Yes I am backing Gloucester again. They had to work hard against Hereford for the points on Tuesday night and were more defensive than they have been in previous games, but Hereford couldn't take advantage of the chances which did come their way in the 2nd half and Gloucester carried on with their unbeaten start to the season. That was City's 8th league game of the season yet Guiseley were only playing their 4th game of the season on Tuesday. It wasn't great for them either as they were well beaten 4-1 by Darlington and its hardly the performance you wan when the league leaders are up next. Granted they could have been a bit rusty, but I watched them in their previous league game against Boston and although they got a point, Boston were totally dominate and should have won easily. I think if Gloucester go back to their more attacking system then they will get plenty of fortune in front of goal. I don't often put up odds on shots, but 10/11 is value for me.
    Hereford v Chorley
    I know Hereford scored 3 against Blyth last Saturday, but having seen them on Tuesday night it is clear they are going to struggle for goals this season as they lacked the quality needed to take one of their chances against Gloucester. Chorley lost their first 4 league matches, but they looked a fair side against Gloucester and they did beat Wigan in the FA Cup. In the league they stopped the defeats with a draw against BPA and then beat AFC Telford on Tuesday night. They look over priced at 3/1 as the teams are much more closely matched than those odds suggest.
    Kings Lynn 2.5pts @ 21/20 with William Hill
    Sutton 2.5pts @ Evs with Bet365
    Gloucester City 4pts @ 10/11 with Bet365
    Chorley 1pt @ 3/1 with BetVictor
  5. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 17th   
    Apart from the games off because of Covid we have a full fixture list in the 3 National League's on Tuesday night. There looks to be plenty of value around as well as I have 7 bets.
    Aldershot v Maidenhead
    The two teams who won for us on Saturday go up against each other and I think Maidenhead look a big price. They did well to come from behind against Chesterfield on Saturday and that made it 5 wins on the bounce now. Sam Barratt is the league's top goalscorer having scored 9 goals in 8 games. As I mentioned on Saturday Aldershot are doing well enough themselves, but I just can't make Maidenhead as big as 23/10 as I would have them around the 13/8 mark myself.
    Bradford Park Avenue v Southport
    Fair play to Bradford for getting a point at Gloucester on Saturday as they took full advantage of a couple of defensive errors in what was a crazy game. Bradford certainly look a very different team from last season as there results suggested, but the bookies haven't paid any attention to that and have priced them up as the outsiders here. That made it 4 games unbeaten now after losing their 1st 2 games of the season. Southport had a very good start to the season although their 3 wins have come against Chorley, Hereford and Blyth and I think Bradford are better than them. Southport were poor on Saturday against Spennymoor and I would make BPA favourites rather than 2/1.
    Hereford v Gloucester
    Talking about teams who should be favourites Gloucester should be market leaders in this game. At 3-1 on Saturday I thought it was going to be another comfortable afternoon for City, but they gifted a goal to Bradford and the away side took confidence from that. Once Gloucester got it back to 4-4 though they were the better side in what had become dreadful weather and bar a superb save from the keeper they would have won it in injury time. As I keep saying the silly goals that City concede is frustrating, but they have so many goals in the side that most of the time it hasn't mattered. They certainly look so much stronger than Hereford going forward and I would make them around 11/10 to win this not the 17/10 that they are.
    Bath v Havant & Waterlooville
    Two sides who reached the play-offs last season, but fair to say they are having very different seasons this time around. Bath have been horrendous losing 4 of their 5 games and only managing to beat a Billericay side who lost their 1st 4 games. Havant again look set to be in the promotion pictures and have one of the strongest sides in the division. The only time they have lost was to current league leaders Dartford and they beat a good side in Oxford on Saturday in a dominant 2nd half performance. They really should have too much for Bath and even money looks a big price.
    Dulwich Hamlet v Dorking
    Dulwich are not doing well this season having picked up just 2 points in their 5 league games. I watched their FA Cup game against Christchurch last month and they didn't look a great side in that match. I just don't see how Dorking don't have too much for their hosts here. They have scored 17 goals in their 6 league games and the only time they haven't won was when they drew a blank against Hungerford. Dulwich have conceded 7 goals in their last 2 league games and I find it hard to see anything other than an away win. They should be odds on shots so the 5/4 looks huge.
    Oxford City v Chippenham
    I mention above that Havant dominated Oxford in the 2nd half on Saturday, but in the 1st half Oxford were the better side and could have been out of sight. That was two league defeats on the bounce, but as I mentioned on Saturday they showed how good a side they are in their FA Cup win over Northampton. Chippenham have lost 4 of their 6 league games and the only two they have won were against Dulwich and Braintree. That clearly is not saying much and City have been easily the better side of the two so far this season. 6/4 looks a huge price as I would have them odds on.
    Tonbridge Angels v Eastbourne
    Another baffling price here as Eastbourne should be clear favourites. They haven't lost a league game since the opening day of the season when they lost to Dorking. Since then they have won 4 and drawn 2. Not surprisingly they had a comfortable time of things on Saturday when beating Braintree 4-0. They are clearly a decent side this time around and certainly a better team than Tonbridge. Dorking beat them 4-1 on Saturday and although I wouldn't have Eastbourne at quite the same level as them, they should have too much for the home team.
    Maidenhead 1pt @ 23/10 with Bet365
    Bradford Park Avenue 1pt @ 2/1 with BetVictor
    Gloucester City 1pt @ 17/10 with BetVictor
    Havant & Waterlooville 3pts @ Evs with Bet365
    Dorking 4pts @ 5/4 with Betway
    Oxford City 2pts @ 6/4 with Betfred
    Eastbourne 2pts @ 17/10 with Betfred
  6. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in FA Cup Predictions > Nov 6th - 9th   
    Having had one of my best ever days punting on 4th qualifying round day hopefully I can repeat the dose now we reach the 1st Round. I like 7 bets throughout the weekend where plenty of games will be covered via the BBC or BT Sport.
    Harrogate V Skelmersdale
    The 1st match of the weekend sees the 1st bet in a game live on BT Sport. Skelmersdale were one of the sides I put up in the last round and they duly beat Stafford 4-1. Stafford play in Step 3 and have only picked up 1 point in the league so playing a Harrogate side 3 levels higher and having a decent start in their first season in the Football League. Skelmersdale play at Step 5 of Non-League football and whenever a team from that level reach the 1st Round they always get outclassed. Granted they might have had this game on their minds, but they have lost their 2 league games since the Stafford victory 3-1 and 4-0. As Harrogate have just come from Non-League I can't see them under estimating their opponents and I fully expect them to take it seriously and win the game comfortably. The -2 handicap is now odds on, but I am going to go for the -3 which is 11/4 with Betfair.
    Boreham Wood v Southend
    It might seem odd putting up a team who are evens to beat a team from a higher level, but when Southend are bottom of League having picked up just 2 points it is easy to see why Boreham Wood are the price they are. They have scored just 5 goals in the league, but one of those was an own goal and another a penalty. I think Boreham Wood are better than their league position suggests and they have conceded just three times in their 5 league games so far. You would think they could keep Southend quiet and that Boreham Wood certainly have the forwards capable of causing Southend no end of problems.
    Cheltenham v South Shields
    South Shields were another team I put up in the previous round when they caused an upset in beating Halifax. Granted Cheltenham are having a good season in League 2, but I think South Shields could pull off another upset. They have a very good side for their level and are essentially a Step 2 side at Step 3 level. If they play at the top of their game I make their chances of causing an upset better than an 8/1 chance so am happy to take a chance.
    Colchester v Marine
    Marine caused an upset in the previous round beating Chester, but I struggle to see the Step 4 side doing much against League 2 Colchester. They have won 3 of their 5 league games, but 2 of them came against 2 of the weaker sides in the division and they should be easily outclassed in this. Colchester are in solid form in League 2 this season and I think they can cover the -2 handicap here.
    Dagenham & Redbridge v Grimsby
    Dagenham are currently bottom of the National League and have really struggled this season. Their only win came against Wealdstone who were poor that evening and Dagenham did enough to deserve the win without looking that great themselves. Grimsby are doing well enough in League 2 and have done well away from home so far this season. They are better than Dagenham and odds against quotes look good value to me.
    Hayes & Yeading v Carlisle
    Hayes were another side who won for me in the previous round when they caused an upset by beating Wealdstone. This game will be much tougher though and Carlisle are currently in 5th position in League 2 having beaten top of the table Newport on Tuesday night. The fact there are no fans will help the away side as the home fans can't create a hostile atmosphere and attempt to make things tricky for the Football League side. I think Carlisle will win this with ease and they can cover the -1 handicap.
    Scunthorpe v Solihull Moors
    Another solid National League side taking on a poor side from League 2 in this tie. Scunthorpe were hit with Covid and that means they haven't played for 2 weeks. When they were playing though they only managed to pick up 4 points in 8 games, scoring just 3 goals in the process. I was a bit surprised Solihull lost 3-1 to Maidenhead last Saturday, but prior to that they had only lost one of their 1st 5 games. They should be in the play-off picture this season and given how bad Scunthorpe have been so far this season they could easily cause an upset here. 
    I have put together an 8 fold acca where I think the Football League side will knock out the Non-League. I am putting in Harrogate, Colchester and Carlisle as per the bets above. I am then adding Bradford to win at Tonbridge, Port Vale to beat Kings Lynn, Doncaster to beat FCUM in the live BBC2 game, Oldham to win at Hampton and Blackpool to win at Eastbourne. The acca pays 11.4/1 with Betfair.
    Harrogate -3 1pt @ 11/4 with Betfair
    Boreham Wood 2pts @ Evs with Bet365
    South Shields 1pt @ 8/1 with William Hill
    Colchester -2 2pts @ 9/5 with Betfair
    Grimsby 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Bet365
    Carlisle -1 2pts @ 11/10 with Betfair
    Solihull Moors 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365
    Harrogate/Bradford/Port Vale/Colchester/Doncaster/Oldham/Carlisle/Blackpool 1pt acca @ 11.4/1 with Betfair
  7. Like
    tomcody reacted to Perfect Storm in Covid: The Perfect Storm!!!   
    As for Billy Hill, I was told that he started out as "a bit of a lad" taking bets during the tea breaks off blokes he was working with at the BSA motorbike factory in Birmingham.
    He got a taste for illegal betting, but with the Police breathing down his neck he moved to County Cork until the heat was off. Then to London where he opened an illegal gambling den, he never looked back from that, mind you he didn't see the sort of money in his lifetime that his namesake betting shops take now in a day.
    At one time Bookmakers were characters, they put their judgement and money on the line, but the days of Turf Accountants are long gone. When the "Elite" noticed how easy it is to relieve the working class of their money Betting Shops flourished and pretty soon chains of them became Ltd companies traded {by the Toffs} on the FTSE.
    At that point they dropped the word "Turf" and became nothing more than "Accountants" a Greek word for parasites with sharp pencils. There's no character's now, no Billy Hill, no Gus Demmy, no "Polish Joe" Kagarlitski {name changed to Joe Coral}, it's just figureheads now like Bald Fred, Paddy Power, Bet Victor and the like, Ltd Companies.
    There's no risk involved to Bookmakers any more, the dice they roll were always loaded in their favour, if that's not bad enough they now use algorithms to figure out betting patterns and who they DON'T want on their books. Most punters say "they bet for the fun of it" Pas Moi, I see no fun in donating my money to parasites. 
    My strategy to avoid that was passed on to me by Gus Demmy, 50 years ago at Salford dog track, "The less often you bet, the more often you win". The logic being, if you bet every 20 minutes as MANY punters do, you have to divide your money into small amounts, amounts so small that even if you have a 10/1 winner you've won feck all, and your other losing bets of the day will ensure you go home with the best part of **** all.
    But IF you have the DISCIPLINE you save the 20 quid you were desperate to donate on Monday, you look for a chink in the Bookies armour on Tuesday, but NOW you still have Mondays money, chances are you have 40 quid.
    The worst thing to do is to divide your bank into miniscule bets, bets that couldn't possibly do any harm to the Bookie. If nothing REALLY stands out on Tuesday, leave it until Wednesday, keep your powder dry, DON'T fritter your bank away, keep adding to your bank until you are as sure as you can be that whatever caught your eye is worth ALL or most of, what you've been "saving" day to day, even week to week.
    That way you look at a bet and wonder is it really worth me putting 60 quid, or maybe 300 quid on the bet, if you aren't sure keep hold of YOUR CASH, don't be RUSHING to GIVE it to a parasite. So the less often you bet, the more you look into the bet, you aren't putting 2 quid on this, 2 quid on that, 2 quid on another and 2 quid on what yer mate said he's backed in the next race, whittling away your money simply because you need your "fix" every 20 minutes.
    If EVER you need to cool your heels, remind yourself that "Bookmakers don't live in Council Houses", millions of punters do. Don't go to war with the Bookies with 2 quid pea shooter bet in yer hand, roll yer cash up until it's at least as damaging as a hand grenade, the more you can salt away the better your chance of really hurting the Bookies.
    I used to bet with Gus at Salford dogs, didn't take him long to figure out that I was a lucky young beggar. He used to say "I want you on my side" we spent a couple of years with banter like that between us. By the time I was in my early 20's I'd had my fill of riveting Canberra bombers and Lightning fighters together for DeHavilland Aircraft, so I jacked it in, went to see Gus, told him I was looking for a job, he took me on as a "Settler" in one of his central Manchester Offices.
    Those were the days, a Board Man chalking the odds and the results up, a girl taking bets on one side, a girl paying out on the other and a Settler in the middle calculating the winnings. You had to be good and fast reckoning bets out, you needed to be accurate to a penny in 100 quid, if you weren't the Punters would soon let you know, get it wrong the other way and Gus would have things to say. Try working out an 11/- Yankee with a 15/8 an 11/4 a 17/2 and a 100/8 winner, we had to do it with pencil and paper in those days, no calculators, but we did have the Block Method, a very clever way of working out any multiple bets...
    That shop I worked in, near The Rising Sun pub, would be packed with Jewish business men, I noticed how the ones who bet least often, won more bets than they lost, that was something I never forgot. What worked for them 50 years ago serves me well when I have a bet. The hardest part is developing DISCIPLINE, betting IS an addiction, let the addiction control you and yer KNACKERED, you'll never pull out of the nose dive, but if you've a strong enough mind you'll develop discipline, a bit like bench pressing it aint easy for the first few months, but it makes you a wiser / stronger man once YOU are in control rather than falling for all the flashing lights, bells and whistles, EXCITING race commentaries all targetted to mesmerise you.
    Here's one for you, how Bookies play with yer head, next time yer in a Bookies listen to the horses racing, you can see the horses a mile away, but, oddly enough you can hear their hooves, how the **** is that !!! Well, it's NOT their hooves, it's a sound track they play to keep the mugs excited, the same sound track in Heavy as it is Good to Firm. That's the extent they will go to just to "excite" you, to keep your head spinning and the money falling out of your pockets...
    Betting is a hard game, especially when the "enemy" is hell bet on hoodwinking us.     You can't sink the Bookies ship with 2 quid pea shooters, but you can put a dent in it with a cannon ball...
  8. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 3rd   
    Another cracking day on Saturday with 3/4 winners and October was an incredible month. It will be almost impossible to keep that strike rate up, but hopefully the profits will continue. It looks like this will be the last set of matches for the Step 3 leagues for a month given lockdown, but with elite sport able to carry on we will have the 3 National League divisions to keep us going over lockdown.
    First of all I am going to add a couple of ante-post tips to those I put up at the start of the season. It was hard to not be impressed with Torquay on Saturday as the hammered Hartlepool 5-0. For me they have the best manager in the division and he got Cheltenham promoted despite them not having the best squad in the league and he could easily do that again. They have only lost once and already 5 points clear at the top. 8/1 e/w looks a solid bet for me at this stage. 
    The other team I have been impressed with in the past week is Boston and I think they have a big chance in the National League North. I am obviously happy with my 20/1 about Gloucester, but Boston looked good on Tuesday night despite the fact they dropped 2 points late on. It was clear they will be title contenders and again they look a solid e/w bet at 7/1.
    Torquay 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365
    Boston 1pt e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill
    Folkestone v Hornchurch
    Onto Tuesday's bets and we start in the Isthmian Premier with Hornchurch. They were one of my ante-post bets and had a disappointing start to the season, but they have looked much better in recent weeks and have scored 11 goals in their last 4 league games. They have conceded just twice in that spell as well. Folkestone aren't going anywhere near as well as they did last season. The 3 league games they have won have been against some of the weaker sides in the division and I think Hornchurch will be too strong for them.
    Gainsborough Trinity v South Shields
    South Shields will be disappointed they find themselves 7 points from top and they are actually level on points with their hosts on Tuesday, but as their win against Halifax in the FA Cup showed they are a very good side. Usually I would have a bit of a concern that they might have one eye on their FA Cup tie at Cheltenham at the weekend, but given the season is likely to be stopped after tomorrow a win here will be crucial. They have a much better side on paper than Gainsborough and odds against quotes look value.
    Redditch v Hednesford
    Redditch were expected to be whipping boys again, but they have done amazingly well and are currently in 6th place and 5 points clear of Tuesday's opponents. Granted Hednesford are showing signs of improvement for the change of manager and did beat Bromsgrove 5-1 in their last league game. Bromsgrove are having a dire season so far though and this will be tougher. I just don't understand why the away side are odds on for this and at over 2/1 the value has to be with the home side.
    There are 3 sides I like who are all at home and all odds on, but look likely to win. The treble pays 2.7/1 with Betfred. Buxton host a Stratford side with just 1 point and should be too strong. Swindon Supermarine have a good side and should beat a struggling Hartley Wintney side. In the same division Chesham host a Beaconsfield side who are bottom with just two points to their name.
    Hornchurch 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365
    South Shields 1pt @ 5/4 with Betfred
    Redditch 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365
    Buxton/Swindon Supermarine/Chesham 1pt @ 2.7/1 with Betfred
  9. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 31st   
    Tuesday was a mini bump back to earth after the high of Saturday, but an injury time goal against us was always going to happen at some point. More on that in the previews. With Step 3 entering the FA Trophy the focus is on the 3 National League's and I have 5 bets.
    Hartlepool v Torquay
    The live BT Sport game sees 1st v 4th and Hartlepool are yet to lose so far this season so an interesting game on paper. At the risk of upsetting Hartlepool fans again (for some reason they got upset with me saying Notts County are the biggest team in Non-League last week), I am not sure Hartlepool are quite as good as their form suggests. For a start they have had a pretty kind fixture list so far and they haven't always played that well. I put them up to beat Maidenhead the other week and they won 4-0, but Maidenhead should have been 4 up by half time and they managed to get away with it. On Tuesday night they were good in the 1st half against Altrincham, but were poor in the 2nd half and Alty missed a penalty. Speaking of late goals, Torquay have been the masters in that so far this season with 3 of their 5 victories on the back of goals in injury time. They also scored a 90th minute goal in their 4-1 win against Aldershot on Tuesday night. They are looking capable of a top 7 finish this season and I think there is more to come from them. They look over priced at 13/5 with Betway and I would have them no bigger than 7/4 myself.
    Wrexham v Sutton
    Wrexham don't seem to have solved any of their issues of last season. They still can't score goals and they aren't looking great at the back either. They were fortunate to beat Boreham Wood on day 1 and their other win was against Yeovil who are yet to win. Although Barnet welcomed some of the players who were missing against Leiston it still wasn't a great effort to draw in 0-0 where yet again they looked poor up front. Sutton have had a great start to the season winning 4 of their 1st 5 games. Now they have only beaten Aldershot, Maidenhead, Weymouth and Yeovil, but Wrexham don't look any stronger than that lot and they might well only need the 1 goal to win. Betway are biggest again at 14/5, but again I would be happy to take around 15/8.
    Gloucester City v Chester
    Gloucester have had a couple of weeks off since beating Blyth 6-1 as Covid in the Gateshead camp forced their game off last Saturday. In that time Chester limply went out of the FA Cup to Marine although they did bounce back from that when beating Curzon on Tuesday night. For me though Gloucester look a better team than Chester this season and I think the 6/4 is a good price as they should be clear favourites in my view. No doubt Asante will be keen to score against his former club as well.
    Southport v Boston
    Boston should have hammered Guiesley on Tuesday night. I watched the game and it was about as one sided as an encounter as you will ever see. Poor finishing and superb goalkeeping meant the only goal was a free kick and then with their only shot on target of the game the away side scored in the 95th minute. Boston played some great stuff though and they looked possible title contenders to me. Southport have picked up 7 points from their 3 games so far, but this is easily their toughest test yet and I think Boston will prove too strong.
    Oxford City v Hampton & Richmond
    The home side have been very profitable for us in the last couple of weeks with their wins over Tonbridge and Weymouth in the FA Cup. Granted Hampton's only point in the league so far was a decent one against Dartford, but Oxford are starting the season very strongly and evens is just on the right side of value for me.
    Torquay 2pts @ 13/5 with Betway
    Sutton 2pts @ 14/5 with Betway
    Gloucester 2pts @ 6/4 with Bet365
    Boston 2pts @ 8/5 with Betfred
    Oxford City 2pts @ Evs with Bet365
  10. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 27th   
    The amazing start to the season continues and there is nothing I like more than landing some chunky numbers especially in the FA Cup. To get 5 upsets in the one round is better than I could have realistically hoped for and again highlights what massive value there is in the FA Cup whereas other tipsters run scared of it. Saturday's results mean that I have staked 63.5pts so far and the profit is 73pts. Obviously that figure wont be the same for everyone (it isn't even what I will have made from the singles as I can't get on with BetVictor), but that is to the prices I put up. 
    Anyway onto Tuesday night and I am avoiding a tricky looking National League fixture to focus lower down with 3 bets which are shorter odds than Saturday, but hopefully profit will be made.
    Boston v Guiseley
    Fair play to Boston for winning on Saturday despite having had a couple of weeks off due to Covid especially as their manager was concerned about fitness levels. That was a good win against a decent enough Telford side and hopefully they can follow that up here. Guiseley have only played 2 league games so far and beat Blyth easily (doesn't say much) and then lost to Hereford 1-0. Boston are better than Hereford and Guiseley also lost in the FA Cup to FCUM on Saturday. I'd make Boston odds on to win this as they ought to be in the promotion hunt come May and Guiseley look more mid-table to me. 
    Biggleswade v Coalville
    Coalville have looked very impressive so far this season. They are unbeaten in the league and have won 4 on the bounce. Not only that but in 7 games they have scored 21 goals and let in just 5. They put 4 past Rushden on Saturday and they look like they will be in the promotion hunt for sure. Biggleswade have only won twice so far this season and both of those came against two of the lesser sides in the division. I'm surprised Coalville aren't odds on for this.
    Walton Casuals v Met Police
    Met Police have put in some good performances so far this season and their only defeat came against a good Swindon Supermarine side. Walton have picked up just 4 points in their first 5 games and they will be one of the teams in a relegation battle at the end of the season. Odds against for an away win looks a fair price.
    Boston 2pts @ 11/10 with Bet365
    Coalville 3pts @ Evs with Bet365
    Met Police 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365
  11. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 24th   
    The FA Cup is the main focus this weekend and I have 6 possible upsets including a 4/1 NAP. I have an FA Cup 4 fold as well as 1 bet in the National League North.   Maldon & Tiptree v Haringey Maldon were the big story last season in the FA Cup after winning at Leyton Orient in the 1st Round and I reckon they can reach that stage again this season. It was no surprise that they lost some of their best players, including their strike force, after the season they had, but they look to have a strong team again based on the start to the season they have had. They beat National League South side Braintree in the previous round and hosting Harringay from just the one step above will hold no fears. Haringey have had a decent start to the season themselves, but in the league they have had a pretty kind set of fixtures and in reality they probably aren't as strong as their early league position suggests. I think at 15/8 the home side are worth backing.   South Shields v Halifax The home side have underperformed so far this season after having likely promotion taken away from them after Covid hit. They still have a very good side though and I just wonder if a game like this will see them perform to their best. It is a very tricky tie for Halifax whose only win so far was against Dagenham and I certainly think the home side are capable of causing an upset.   Stafford v Skelmersdale Stafford have only managed to get 1 point so far and that was against a Grantham side who have only managed 1 point more. They have managed to score just twice and one of them was an own goal! Now they did cause an upset in the previous round when beating Hereford so they are capable, but that result does stand out. Now they are expected to win which they can't do in the league and I think Step 6 side Skelmersdale have a chance of causing an upset themselves. They have only played 1 league game which they won, but they beat one of Stafford's league rivals Lancaster in an earlier round so we know they can beat someone from this league. At 17/4 it is a sporing play.   Tonbridge Angels v Taunton The home side are set for a season of struggle and they have only just managed to get through to this stage of the FA Cup. They only beat a dreadful Farnborough 1-0 in the 2nd qualifying round and then beat Chichester 2-1 in the previous round. Having lost two of their 3 league games as well it suggests they aren't up too much. Taunton will certainly be the best team they have played in the FA Cup this season. They were unbeaten before losing to the Met Police last Saturday, but they had a great win over Truro in the previous round and they look to have a great chance of causing an upset. When I first had a glance at the prices it was Taunton who stood out for me.    Wealdstone v Hayes & Yeading There has certainly been plenty of goals in Wealdstone games so far this season with them having 4,1,7,7 and 5 goals in their matches. They have won their last two against Wrexham, who missed some good chances and Chesterfield who were poor. I think Hayes are capable of causing an upset here. They have lost just once in the league and were going well when the season was stopped in March. They look worth chancing at a big price.   Weymouth v Oxford City Oxford City did us a good turn last Saturday and they really do look in good shape at the moment. Obviously Weymouth will be a much tougher test than Tonbridge, but Weymouth have found scoring goals hard to come by in the National League so far this season although did score their first 2 when beating Kings Lynn on Saturday. I do think City though have a chance of the upset and look value at 31/10   FA Cup Acca I have a short priced 4 fold for Saturday. Dagenham to beat Hartley Wintney, Darlington to beat Cambridge City, Maidenhead to beat Cray Valley and Chester to beat Marine. The acca pays 2.6/1 with Bet365   Boston v AFC Telford Just the one bet in the league fixtures this week and it comes in the National League North. Boston have only played their opening day fixture because of Covid issues and as much as they won 4-0 against Leamington I do think the time off will be a decent negative here. They face a Telford side who have made a good start to the season winning twice and drawing once. As we know that draw was against Blyth when they should have had all 3 points. That gift of a goal is also the only goal they have conceded in the league so far. I think Telford at 100/30 is way too big given the circumstances and hopefully they can make their extra game time pay.   Maldon & Tiptree 1pt @15/8 with Bet365 South Shields 1pt @ 5/2 with BetVictor Skelmersdale 1pt @ 19/5 with BetVictor Taunton 2pts @ 4/1 with BetVictor Hayes & Yeading 1pt @ 13/2 with BetVictor Oxford City 1pt @ 31/10 with BetVictor Dagenham/Darlington/Maidenhead/Chester 1pt acca @ 2.6/1 with Bet365 AFC Telford 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfred
  12. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 18th   
    More profit on Tuesday to continue the good 1st month or so of the new season. Most of my bets are usually in the National League, but nothing really stands out as a bet this week, so I have 3 bets at Step 2 and 1 at Step 3. Also
    Gloucester City v Blyth Spartans
    Blyth would have gone down last season if the season had of ended and they already look like they will be in a relegation battle this time around as well. I opposed them last week and Telford should have put the game to bed well before they gifted Blyth an equalizer in the 90th minute. They lost in the FA Cup on Wednesday to Marske who are two levels below them and they managed just two shots in the whole game. I have watched all 180 minutes of Gloucester's two games in the league so far and my thoughts pre season that they would be title contenders have been proven by what I have seen so far. They are playing some attractive football and scoring some quality goals. I think they will be suited by their 3G pitch this season as it suits the type of football they are playing and the team is miles better than the Blyth one on paper. It really should be a comfortable home win and the 17/10 on the -1 handicap makes plenty of appeal. I think it is worth covering the -2 at 15/4 as well.
    Oxford City v Tonbridge Angels
    Tonbridge had a slightly surprising opening day win at Billericay, but they were beaten by Hungerford on Saturday and although they are through to the FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round they have had quite easy games against Farnborough and Chichester and were hardly convincing in either. On the other hand Oxford have looked pretty good so far in beating Bath 2-0 on the opening day and then getting a point at Chelmsford. What was particularly eye-catching though was their FA Cup win over Tamworth on Tuesday night. They could both have been at the same level this season and Tamworth are well fancied again to win their league so for Oxford to beat them 6-1 is some statement. If they are in that short of form again here it should be a home win.
    Needham Market v Bromsgrove Sporting
    Needham are still unbeaten in the league and are looking pretty decent and scoring plenty of goals as well. I think they look a bit of value here against Bromsgrove as they are the outsiders and they should be much closer together. They are doing OK and have only lost 1 game, but they aren't quite hitting the heights of last season at the moment. At 12/5 the home side look a good value bet.
    Gloucester City 3pts -1 @ 17/10 with Betway & 1pt  -2 @ 15/4
    Oxford City 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Betfred
    Needham Market 1pt @ 13/5 with Betfred
  13. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 13th   
    Not great on Saturday especially with the way Telford decided to gift Blyth an equalizer in the 90th minute having dominated the game which basically would have meant we would have broke even. At this stage we have no FA Cup prices so for now it is 3 bets in the National League and 1 in the Pitching In Isthmian Premier.
    Halifax v Yeovil
    The away side have been disappointing so far this season. I originally thought the opening day 2-2 draw at Kings Lynn was a decent effort, but then when you start working through the form lines of that, the draw at home to Wealdstone and then they were 2nd best against Wrexham on Saturday. I don't think they have got anywhere near their best from last season yet and they face a very tough trip to Halifax on Tuesday night. They deservedly beat Dagenham on the opening day and then lost 2-1 to ante-post favs Stockport. On Saturday they got a very creditable draw at Boreham Wood and given they haven't lost at home since last October a point was as good as they could hope for. They had the better chances in the match as well. I would have Halifax as favourites for this so the 21/10 with Skybet if you can get on with them is huge, but the 15/8 will William Hill is more than acceptable as well.
    Wealdstone v Stockport
    Odds against about Stockport looks huge here. As I mention above I am not sure the draw at Yeovil looked as strong as it did at the time and they were woeful against Dagenham on Saturday. They didn't really have a serious chance until pretty much the last kick of the game and I don't think Dagenham were even that good themselves, but they fully deserved the win. Stockport have done well in their last two games after having a surprising first day defeat and they ought to be in a different class to the home side.
    Woking v Dagenham & Redbridge
    As I mention above I wasn't impressed by Dagenham on Saturday although they clearly deserved the 3 points. I know Woking lost 4-0 in the end on Saturday, but 3 of those goals came late on when they were chasing the game and they certainly were in the game until that point. They were really good in their only home game of the season so far against Solihull and I would have them around the 6/4 mark rather than the 13/5 they are with Bet365.
    Enfield v Kingstonian
    I put the away side up two weeks when this game was called off and I am still going to go with them here. After two heavy defeats Kingstonian seem to finally hitting their stride and although their 1st two wins were against lesser sides the win over Hornchurch on Saturday was a step up. To be fair Enfield had a good win themselves, but I just can't let the away side go unbacked at Bet365's 23/10 which is too big.
    Halifax 2pts @ 21/10 with Skybet (15/8 with William Hill)
    Stockport 3pts @ 11/10 with BetVictor
    Woking 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365
    Kingstonian 1pt @ 23/10 with Bet365
  14. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 10th   
    It has been a good couple of weeks with plenty of big price winners landed. Hopefully that can continue on Saturday as I have 7 bets across the divisions.
    Chesterfield v Woking
    The home side went ahead via a penalty on Tuesday night, but Hartlepool got 2 goals back to give us a winning selection and I am going to oppose Chesterfield again here. Woking have made a really good start to the season winning both games and they are making a similar start to the one they made last season. They deservedly beat Solihull and then put in the perfect away performance when beating Weymouth on Tuesday 1-0. That came from a set piece and they were dangerous from those all night. I can see them causing Chesterfield issues here and they look over priced at 12/5 to make it 3/3.
    Dagenham & Redbridge v Wealdstone
    This is the live game on BT Sport and I think the away side are a big price at 16/5. Dagenham have to be disappointed with their efforts so far. They weren't great at Halifax last week when losing 2-0 and then they lost 2-1 to Barnet having taken the lead. Granted they were down to 10 men, but given Barnet had been stuffed by Eastleigh on the opening day of the season that was not good. They should be capable of better, but clearly there are gelling issues at the moment. Wealdstone's opening day game was called off, but on Tuesday they got a very good point at Yeovil in a 2-2 draw. I think they will fancy their chances here given Dagenham have been misfiring.
    Maidenhead v Hartlepool
    Kings Lynn left it late to beat Maidenhead as they came from behind twice and then added the winner in injury time, but Maidenhead's two goals came from penalties and it was a deserved win for the away side in the end. Hartlepool are already shortening for this game and it is no real surprise and I think they should be odds on to make it 3/3 against a Maidenhead side who look set to struggle this season.
    Solihull Moors v Kings Lynn
    Happy to stick with Kings Lynn again here. They have now scored 5 goals in their 2 games and although Solihull beat Wrexham on Tuesday night, they didn't perform great and as mentioned above they were poor against Woking. Kings Lynn are full of goals and I think they have a much better chance than the odds of 15/4 suggest.
    Blyth Spartans v AFC Telford
    Blyth would have gone down if the season had ended and even after 1 game it already looks like they could be in trouble this time around. They were easily beaten 4-0 at Guiseley on Tuesday night and with Telford impressing in a 3-0 win over Brackley this ought to be an away win. Telford do seem to have strengthened well over the break and they could be outside candidates for the play-offs.
    Enfield Town v Leatherhead (Pitching In Isthmian Premier)
    Not sue why Leatherhead are such a big price here. Take out the 7-0 horror show against Bowers & Pitsea and they are having a good season so far and it was a superb effort to edge out Worthing in a 7 goal thriller on Tuesday night. Enfield had two easy games to start the season, but their weakness are showing in their last two games losing 4-1 and 5-2. 21/10 looks a big price for an away win.
    Hednesford v Stratford
    Just a handful of games into a 3 year contract and Hednesford decide to to sack Andy Morrell. That's a surprise, but they have had a shocking start to the season. They have 1 point, scored just once and conceded 9 goals in 4 league games. That is not good and Stratford have won 3 of their 4 league games having scored 9 goals in the process. Their one defeat came to current top of the table Needham Market and I am happy to take the 7/5 about them beating a Hednesford needing a manager.
    Woking 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365
    Wealdstone 1pt @ 16/5 with William Hill
    Hartlepool 2.5pts @ 6/5 with BetVictor
    Kings Lynn 1pt @ 15/4 with William Hill
    AFC Telford 2.5pts @ 11/8 with Betfred
    Leatherhead 1pt @ 21/10 with Betfred
    Stratford 2pts @ 7/5 with Bet365
  15. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 6th   
    Great to land another big number on Saturday with Eastleigh romping to a 5-1 victory over Barnet. Barnet were the team I wanted to back to go down, but there is still no sign of prices sadly and obviously it would be shorter than it would have been after that defeat. Games are going to come thick and fast now and I have 3 bets in the National League plus one bet in the National League South as the Step 2 get their seasons underway after their FA Cup games on Saturday.
    Chesterfield v Hartlepool
    I was keen to oppose Chesterfield on Saturday and I am keen to oppose them again. I think missing out on playing on Saturday could be a negative thing as it extends the amount of time since they last played a competitive game and Hartlepool got their eye in on Saturday when beating Aldershot 2-1. They certainly look the stronger side on paper and they played pretty well at the weekend. As I mentioned in Saturday's preview Chesterfield have only played 3 friendlies and they look underprepared for the start of the season.
    Maidenhead v Kings Lynn
    Maidenhead were poor on Saturday as they lost 3-0 to Sutton and as much as Alan Devonshire always seems to work his magic in getting them to survive he could struggle to do that this time around. They survived by less than a point on PPG last season and there is a strong chance they would have gone down if the season continued. I thought Kings Lynn did well on Saturday against Yeovil and it showed great character to come back from a goal down twice. They carry plenty of threat up front and I think the Maidenhead defence could struggle to contain them. I am really surprised they are as big as 14/5 as I would have it at least a point shorter.
    Solihull v Wrexham
    Solihull were outplayed by Woking on Saturday and that has to be a concern going forward and they face a really tough first home game of the season against Wrexham. Wrexham had a tough first home game themselves against a very good Boreham Wood side and they edged it 2-1 and I certainly think they will have a better season they did last time around. Indeed, this game seems to be priced up on last seasons form rather than what happened on Saturday and their respective squads. 12/5 looks a big price about an away win.
    Maidstone v Welling
    Welling suffered a big cup upset on Saturday losing 2-0 to Sheppey a team 3 leagues below them. That is hardly a good start to the season and they could struggle here against a Maidstone side who beat Dover 3-0 in their last pre-season friendly game and won at Hendon in the FA Cup on Saturday. I wouldn't want to chase the price down too much, but it really would take some turn around from Welling's effort at the weekend to get an opening day 3 points here.
    Hartlepool 2pts @ 15/8 with Bet365
    Kings Lynn 2pts @ 14/5 with Bet365
    Wrexham 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365
    Maidstone 2pts @ Evs with Bet365
  16. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 3rd   
    At this stage we don't have any prices for the FA Cup matches which sees the Step 2 sides make their seasonal return so at the moment the focus is on the opening day of the National League season and I have one bet at Step 3.
    Barnet v Eastleigh
    There is been huge changes at Barnet since they lost to Notts County in the play-offs in July. There has been a change in manager as well as big changes in the squad. Peter Beadle is the new manager which was a surprising choice. I know he used to play for them, but he hasn't managed since Hereford sacked him a couple of years ago and it does strike me as if Barnet have gone for the cheap option. They are one club we know have suffered badly with the current situation and the squad doesn't look a strong one. I am surprised they have been given odds on quotes for this game. I don't think Eastleigh are going to be going to promotion or anything like that, but to me they have the better side on paper and haven't had such a rushed preparation for the new season. They look a good price at 14/5.
    Halifax v Dagenham & Redbridge
    Halifax had an amazing season last time around as they defied those of us who thought they would go down by reaching the play-offs although I think they were fortunate in that regard that PPG was used. I can't see them repeating that feat this season and they look a bottom half side to me. Dagenham will be hoping to be in and around the play-offs and they have a squad capable of doing that especially with McCallum up front who is always going to be a threat. 2/1 looks a good price in my view.
    Wealdstone v Chesterfield
    In some ways it is a shame that Chesterfield are playing Wealdstone on the opening day because I think Wealdstone will struggle this season, but Chesterfield are coming into this season under prepared. They have only played 3 friendlies and some of their players haven't even got a 90 minutes in their legs. It could take them a few games for them to get into gear. Also the manager didn't seem overly happy with the squad he has as he talked about it would be great if they could get more players in, but money is tight. Wealdstone caused a bit of a shock by winning National League South last season, but they deserved it. I like their manager and it will be interesting to see how he gets on for the first time at this level. They have signed Maldon & Tiptree's frontline from last season and although that is 3 steps below this one they did look class players as they showed in the FA Cup so I think they can prove up to this level. It does also show though that they are having to look to promote players up the levels which might not be good for their long term prospects. This though is a good time to be playing Chesterfield and they are good enough to beat them on Saturday.
    Enfield v Kingstonian
    Fair to say that even after just 3 games that I am not massively liking my bet on Kingstonian for the title. They lost to both Cray and Worthing by 4 goals although they played well in defeat to Horsham in the FA Cup and did get a last minute winner on Wednesday night. Hopefully that 3 points will give them a boost going into this game. Enfield did win their first two games, but I think they got lucky with who they played and they were undone by Bishops Stortford in midweek. To me there shouldn't be as big a difference as there is in the prices so the away side have to be a bet at 100/30.
    Eastleigh 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365
    Dagenham & Redbridge 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365
    Wealdstone 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365
    Kingstonian 1pt @ 10/3 with Betfred
  17. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > March 10th   
    A cracking Saturday with 4 winners including Buxton at a massive price. Going to be fairly brief again here as busy with Cheltenham as always this week and I have 3 bets. Just going to add one thing though and that is I have stopped putting up Marathon's prices. I have found it harder and harder to get on with them and last week it reached a new level that meant it was pointless me getting on with them anymore. To be fair I have had a very good run with them and took them for a near 5 figure sum on the final day of last season. I'm not sure how many readers were using them anyway and although they were often top price it wasn't by as much as it sometimes used to be. Not all the bookies I put up I can get on with to be fair and my BetVictor account was closed down long ago, but my guess is that people are more likely to have an account with them so I am happier to put them up if they are top price.
    Dagenham & Redbridge v AFC Fylde (National League)
    Fylde are now 10 points from safety and they have a tough game here as Dagenham are trying to put some distance between themselves and the relegation zone although it is thought only 3 teams will be going down anyway.As I mentioned the other week Dagenham are much improved under Daryl McMahon which isn't a big surprise given he was taking over from Peter Taylor. They had a good away win on Saturday against an Aldershot side who had been doing pretty well of late especially at home. Dagenham's loss at Barrow the previous Saturday is there only loss in 8 league games and I think they can put another nail in Fylde's coffin on Tuesday night.
    Kettering v Hereford (National League North)
    Hereford won for us on Saturday and I think they are a big price to win against Kettering. The hosts have had a lot of games called off and their match against Gloucester on Saturday was their first in a while. They probably should have won, but it was two poor teams playing each other and Kettering are struggling a little with injuries at the moment. Hereford are clearly on the improve and are over priced to win a 3rd away game on the bounce.
    Biggleswade v Barwell (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
    I like the away team here who were very good in beating Bromsgrove Sporting 4-1 on Saturday. They have only lost one of their last nine games now and are in much better form than their hosts who have lost 7 of their last 10. Barwell still have a chance of 6th place as well (along with plenty of others) so still have something to play for whereas Biggleswade have nothing to play for now.
    Dagenham 2pts @ 13/10 with William Hill
    Hereford 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365
    Barwell 1pt @ 13/8 with BetVictor and Bet365
  18. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > March 7th   
    Hopefully the weather allows most if not all games to take place on Saturday and I have 7 bets. Fairly brief preview this week because of time.
    Maidenhead v Boreham Wood
    Nearly got paid out on Boreham Wood on Saturday and they travel to a Maidenhead side who are struggling at the moment. This should be 3 points for the away side and any odds against looks a good price.
    Halifax v Woking
    Bit of a drift on Halifax although hard to see why. I opposed Woking in their last away game at Notts County and they got their first away point in 6 games. Since then they have picked up 4 points at home, but their win against Maidenhead last week was their first in 5 games and I am not sure that says a lot. Halifax's loss at Torquay is their only league defeat in 9 games.
    Farsely v Hereford
    Quite simply if Hereford can repeat their performance in their 4-1 win at York on Tuesday they will win this. That is no guarantee but at the price I am happy to pay to find out.
    Maidstone v Welling
    Maidstone have lost 4 on the bounce now and look badly out of form. They lost 5-1 at Weymouth last weekend and Welling, who have won 5 of their last 7 look more than capable of winning this.
    Oxford City v Chippenham
    Chippenham's only loss in 5 games came against Welling and they have won the other 4. I mentioned that Mike Cook would be more than capable of getting them out of trouble and make them hard to beat as he did at Gloucester last season. They have only lost 2 of their last 9 and they look value to win at an inconsistent Oxford.
    Basford v Buxton
    Taking a flyer here as Buxton are much improved since the change of manager and although they go to 2nd in the table Basford have only won once in their last 4. With Buxton unbeaten in 6 they are worth taking a chance at a big price.
    Walton Casuals v Hendon
    It is just 2 points in their last 10 games for the home side and after losing a couple Hendon were back to form with a 3-3 draw against Taunton. They look a good price at odds against.
    Boreham Wood 2pts @ 5/4 with William Hill and Betway
    Halifax 1pt @ 7/5 with Bet365
    Hereford 1pt @ 5/2 with BetVictor
    Welling 2pts @ 2/1 with BetVictor and Betway
    Chippenham 1pt @ 9/4 with BetVictor 
    Buxton 1pt @ 6/1 with BetVictor
    Hendon 2.5pts @ 23/20 with BetVictor
  19. Like
    tomcody reacted to Toptipsters in Tennis Tips - March 2 - March 8   
    WTA Monterrey
    Tamara Zidansek - Anastasia Potapova [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

    I have lost against Zidansek last week, but Juvan played really nothing special and she played not well also here. So I am not changing anything on my Tamaras estimations yet as her record on hard is still horrible on hardcourt on WTA level. Zidansek after that win lost to home wild card Zarazua. Here she won with Azarenka, who played first match after 7 months and it wasnt good at all. 

    I like the way Potapova is playing this year.  10-5 record is good with several solid wins. She won Schmiedlova and Maria in Acapulco, who are both defence minded players, same as Gatto yesterday and tomorrow it will be similar story with Zidansek.

    I think Tamara will hate this match up and she will have lot of problems to defend big shots from Potapova, who is in good form and very dangerous this year on hardcourt. Wouldnt not give more than 1,5 on the russian. GL
  20. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 29th February   
    Another Saturday and another storm is set to hit most of the country so we could well see games being called off yet again. For some reason the FA Trophy quarter-finals have not been priced up at the time of writing and at least one team interest me depending on price so there might be more to be added, but as it stands I have 6 bets.
    Barrow v Dagenham & Redbridge
    I still think Barrow will win the league although letting a 2 goal lead slip at Sutton last week wasn't great and I have to back Dagenham at 6/1 to win there. They have been much improved since Daryl McMahon has taken over as boss and have put in some impressive performances. They have only conceded 1 goal in their last 4 games and will no doubt make it hard for Barrow. Obviously Barrow should be favourites but I make Dagenham no bigger than 3/1 so at double the price I am having a play.
    Soliull Moors v Dover
    Solihull lost to Dagenham last Saturday and I think they could fail again here against a Dover side who have lost just twice in their last 8 games. Those losses were at Halifax and Barrow so no discredit there at all and they thumped Fylde 5-1 on Saturday. Solihull have recently changed their manager, but they just seem in a bit of a slump at the moment and scoring goals has become a real issue. In their last 8 league games they have scored just 3 goals and have only won one of those games. Dover look a decent price and they have been good away from home for most of the season.
    Yeovil v Wrexham
    Yeovil looked set to play a part in the title race and then they went and failed to win in 6 league games and they now have to try and steady the ship so they can just stay in the play-offs. Dean Keates has finally got Wrexam playing some good stuff and they look like they will be able to climb to mid-table security easily. They are scoring goals now and have only failed to score in one of their last 7 games and that was against Dagenham. I think Wrexham can take full advantage of their rivals poor recent form just as they did at Bromley last week and look a massive price.
    Blyth Spartans v Kettering
    I'm surprised Kettering aren't shorter for this. Granted they haven't played since February 8th and haven't won in 4, but they have done really well under Paul Cox as I have mentioned plenty of times before. Blyth looked doomed for relegation and have lost 6 on the bounce now. Kettering should have too much for the home side.
    Hartley Wintney v Blackfield & Langley (BetVictor Southern Premier League South)
    Neither of these two sides are great, but the home side are in much better form having won 3 of their last 4 and proving they can beat the teams around them in the table. Blackfield have only picked up 2 points in their last 5 and have won just twice away from home all season.
    Nuneaton v Bromsgrove Sporting (BetVictor Southen League Premier Central)
    Redditch had lost 25 straight league games and then went and ended that run by beating Nuneaton last Saturday. That was clearly a poor effort and I think Bromsgrove who are in the title mix can also beat them. They lost last weekend at home, but their away form has been superb and they have won 10 games on their travels this season.
    Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 6/1 with Bet365
    Dover 2pts @ 67/25 with Marathon
    Wrexham 2pts @ 100/30 with William Hill
    Kettering 2pts @ 29/20 with BetVictor
    Hartley Wintney 1pt @ 131/100 with Marathon
    Bromsgrove Sporting 1pt @ 11/8 with Marathon
  21. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > February 22nd   
    Weather could have a say yet again tomorrow so will be brief with these. There are 4 big price singles plus a treble.
    Torquay v Halifax
    Don't get why Torquay are being so well backed here against a bang in form Halifax side. Unbeaten in 7 in the league, whilst Torquay have only won twice in 10. Torquay have not played since Feburary 1st either so could easily be ring rusty going into this game. Given Halifax are 3rd and looking strong for a play-off place and they are playing Torquay who are only 5 points clear of the relegation zone. 3/1 on away win is a huge price.
    Chester v Brackley
    Another baffling price change as somehow Brackley are favourites to win at Chester. This is a Chester side who have only lost twice at home all season and won 10 times and beat leaders Kings Lynn on Tuesday. Brackley haven't won in 5 now and when I saw the prices I thought Brackley were at home. Chester at 21/10 is huge and for me the prices are the wrong way round.
    Chelmsford v Slough
    Taking advantage of another massive drift as Slough are over 2/1 to beat Chelmsford having been as short at 11/10. Chelmsford managed to beat Tonbridge on Monday, but it was a poor game that could have gone either way. They still look a poor side low on confidence to me and Slough are 2nd having lost just twice in their last 10 games. They look a big price as I would have them as favourites.
    Salisbury v Hendon
    Happy to take a chance on Hendon here as they have won 6 on the bounce now and Salisbury have only managed to beat Dorchester in their last 5 games. Don't think there is much between these sides so 3/1 on an away win is big.
    Basford host Atherton who had to postpone a game in the week because an outbreak of mumps went through the side. Every chance they will be weakened here in what is already a very tough game for them anyway. Royston should beat a Hednesford side who are dropping off big time and in the same division Tamworth should outclass Biggleswade. The treble is 2.7/1 with Marathon.
    Halifax 2pts @ 3/1 with Betway
    Chester 2.5pts @ 21/10 with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor
    Slough 1pt @ 21/10 with BetVictor
    Hendon 1pt @ 3/1 with BetVictor
    Basford/Royston/Tamworth 1pt Treble @ 2.7/1 with Marathon
  22. Like
    tomcody got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Champions League Predictions > Feb 18th - 26th   
    Atalanta in Europe plays all matches in Milano on stadium Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro). Anyway home side looks like a winner against with injuries depleted Valencia squad. But guests are definately dangerous side, because they have more experience and kowledge, how to deal with games such as this one. Smells somehow fishy game for me... 
  23. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > February 17th/18th   
    Chelmsford v Tonbridge
    This game looks set to go ahead with the pitch being reported that it is OK and I like the look of the away team here who are a big price to beat an out of form Chelmsford. Granted Tonbridge have only won once away from home in the league all season, but that did come against Braintree on their penultimate away game. In their last 5 away games they have only lost once and their overall form has seen them lose just once in their last 8 games. Chelmsford have lost 3 on the bounce and granted they have all been away from home. At home they have lost just twice all season, but with no manager at the moment they do seem to be really struggling and it could be a while before we see a new manager as they couldn't agree terms with their preferred choice. At 29/10 the away win certainly looks value to me as I would have it around a point shorter.
    Tonbridge 1pt @ 29/10 with BetVictor
    Not looked at Tuesday's games yet so any further bets will be added at a later point.
  24. Like
    tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > February 10th/11th   
    Gloucester City v Kings Lynn
    Gloucester finally managed to win for the 2nd time under James Rowe on Saturday when they beat Bradford Park Avenue 2-1. Given BPA have only picked up 14 points all season and are doomed to relegation it hardly suggests that Gloucester are going to go on a good run now. From bottom of the table they now face top of the table just over 48 hours later and this will be a much bigger test and one I just can't see them overcoming. Kings Lynn didn't have a match on Saturday so they travel to Evesham fresher than the home side. They would have been delighted to have seen York lose to Boston which meant they are still top of the table so they will be keen to take full advantage of York's slip up. Also given they lost to Kidderminster in their last match they will want to bounce straight back. City still can't keep a clean sheet against the worst team in the league and they surely wont tonight either against the best team in the league. The front line doesn't really seem to be clicking either at the moment and 2 of City's last 3 goals have been goals from a direct free-kick. Obviously Kings Lynn are very short tonight, but the -1 is available at 13/10 and as long as Kings Lynn are mentally switched on it should be a comfortable night for them.
    Kings Lynn -1 2pts @ 13/10 with Betfair
  25. Like
    tomcody reacted to darko08 in Tennis Tips - February 3 - February 9   
    @money44 Okey, Monfils is going to win against Gombos 2-0 so we will have a Monfils-Krajinovic in the SF. I think he's not playing good but he doesn't need to play good for beating Gombos. I have not seen any kind of physical issue on him, maybe a little bit tired but I'm not sure because he's always acting like he's tired or/and injured so I don't trust him anymore. As you said he will be priced at 1.70-1.80. I think Krajinovic can beat him (obviously I was wrong about Monfils intentions but I think Krajinovic can won, anyway).
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