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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - March 2 - March 8

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Well, let's see what this week is going to bring!

Jill Belen Teichmann (-4) to beat Clara Burel at 1.94 with Pinnacle

Viktoria Kuzmova to beat Paula Badosa Gibert at 1.77 with Pinnacle

A lot has been said about Burel by various guys, but she is yet to prove herself on the main level and I'm not really sure that she's going to make her breakthrough all that soon. Teichmann is more experienced and still improving, so I think that she's going to have every chance to record a comfortable win, especially with Burel's fitness in question. Badosa Gibert's fitness is also in question a bit after her recent withdrawal, but the main reason for this bet is that I rate Kuzmova as the way more complete player of the two. Badosa Gibert is one of the few WTA players that can serve really well for a while, but her defensive skills leave much to be desired and that's where Kuzmova should dominate and eventually prevail.

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Vitalia Diatchenko (+5,5 Games) to beat Sofia Kenin at 1.72 with 888

I think Kenin will have a difficult match here. Diatchenko is a very dangerous player on indoors. Diatchenko is one of the players who hits harder of the whole circuit and her game suits very well on indoors (she has a nice record on this surface). She could have won against Sakkari in St. Petersburg (6-3, 4-6, 6-7). Diatchenko dominated Sakkari in some parts of the match with her big hitting but she choked when she had to close the sets (she was leading 3-0 the second set and 5-2 the third set). This surface suits more Diatchenko's game and Kenin looks a little bit out since she won the AO.

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@CzechPunter  @FrenchPunterWhat do u expect from Garcia? I'm tempted to bet on her against Minnen, 1.80 looks juicy.. I know she's far form her best form but there are some factors to be considered for this one. She has invested on this new tournament and this region is where she has trained for a lot of time so I expect big motivation from her. Despite her bad form she's better player than Minnen, what do u think?

Maybe this tournament is cancelled for the the coronavirus

Edited by darko08

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4 hours ago, darko08 said:

." She has invested on this new tournament and this region is where she has trained for a lot of time so I expect big motivation from her. Despite her bad form she's better player than Minnen, what do u think?"

What kind of investment? Emotional or organizational and financial? She is in a severe crisis and 1.8 is a too low paid risk, imo. I think some value is in 2.3 on Minnen. 

 

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She is without doubt a great player but actually suffering some problems;  I will never forget her long series of victories at the end of the 2018 season.

Anyway, nobody is obligated to bet on this dificult to predict match :)

Edited by lelit

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Hon Priscilla vs Cristian Jaqueline

Always very important to tread carefully on the Monday matches or one could easily set up himself for a series of losses going into the week proper. Jaqueline is progressive and already 12-2 indoors this season. Moreover she has already played two qualifiers here backed up by resounding victories. Incidentally I was discussing Jaqueline with Chanda Rubin in a somewhat of a side talk last week and she had a few good things to say about her... hmm! My week starts here on hopefully a positive step forward.

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Lara Arruabarrena to beat Yafan Wang at 2.50 with Parions Sport

The Chinese has lost her last 5 games including an early elimination in straight sets in the 1st round for her title defense at Acapulco which should put pressure on her shoulders for her entry into this tournament. For her part, the Spaniard played well in the qualifications by beating Inglis and Dolehide without losing a set. I count on her good defensive play and her counter attacks to make the exchanges last and to push the Chinese in lack of confidence to make mistakes.

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Mcnally/Pegula (-3.0 Games) to beat Hsu/Whoriskey at 1.95 with Marathonbet

Mcnally(40)/Pegula(129) have played 8 matches together and they have won 6 of them. They played a couple of matches together 2 weeks ago. Both players have demonstrated to be good double players. Mcnally won in Washington playing with Gauff and they reached the QF's in the AO, losing finally against the best pair of the world, Mladenovic/Babos. Pegula also has won a WTA tournament (Houston).
Hsu(146)/Whoriskey(171) have played a couple of tournaments together (2-2) but the first one was in 2015 and the second one in 2018 so this will be their first match together in almost 2 years. None of them has been ranked into the Top 100.

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29 minutes ago, darko08 said:

Mcnally/Pegula (-3.0 Games) to beat Hsu/Whoriskey at 1.95 with Marathonbet

Mcnally(40)/Pegula(129) have played 8 matches together and they have won 6 of them. They played a couple of matches together 2 weeks ago. Both players have demonstrated to be good double players. Mcnally won in Washington playing with Gauff and they reached the QF's in the AO, losing finally against the best pair of the world, Mladenovic/Babos. Pegula also has won a WTA tournament (Houston).
Hsu(146)/Whoriskey(171) have played a couple of tournaments together (2-2) but the first one was in 2015 and the second one in 2018 so this will be their first match together in almost 2 years. None of them has been ranked into the Top 100.

This should be good!

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Viktoriya Tomova to beat Magdalena Freçh at 2.30 with Parions Sport

I am counting on the current form of the Bulgarian, who has just won the trophy at Sunderland, to beat the Pole who had some difficulties to beat a young Yerolymos ranked almost 200 seats behind her.

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WTA Lyon
Viktoriya Tomova - Magdalena Frech 2@1.64 pinnacle /flat 10u/

Tomova is coming of two busy weeks, finals in Glasgow and title in Sunderland, but in both events, she met players of lower quality, as she was nr1 seed there. Was watching part of her final with british talent Raducanu and she was worse for set and half, but Emma couldnt keep her high level for whole match and made too many unforced errors. 

Frech is in top200 for third year, but I like her game more than her ranking is. Her game improved a lot last year, but she played only 14 events. She is very clever player, but she is not that powerful, to compete with many heavy hitters on tour. She passed qualification here.

Both players playing similar style of tennis, but Frech is better overall. Tomova might be little tired as well and Frech will be her toughest opponent since Svitolina in Fed Cup. I see Frech as big fav here.

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Sem Verbeek to beat (+1.5 sets) Maxime Cressy at 2.05 with Unibet

Taking this bet incase of Maxime turning up but Maxime had in general huge problems to serve last week and his poor movement was evident when he faced Liam Broady and got broken in second set without managing to break back. He wasn't turning up in the same style as the week before when he won his first Challenger and lost in 3 to the same opponent as in that first final the week before (Arthur Rinderknech). Maxime is a limited player bound to wind up in troubles if his serve doesn't work like the trouble he faced when he lost second set to Liam Broady in. I also think Maxime has become a little overranked now after reaching two consecutive challenger finals and his become a liability to himself because of the amount of matches he's been playing since last week. I don't think he will go far in this IW chellenger and he should take a break and gear up for the IW masters qualies next week. Sem is not a very good player but he beat Stephane Robert in the qualies for this tournament and has played at least a match in the windy outdoor conditions which might prove to be troublesome for Maxime because he played indoors last week. Anyway it's not very unlikely that Maxime throws in a retirement here if he loses first set.

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Thai-Son Kwiatkowski to beat (-2.5 games) Salvatore Caruso at 1.76 with Unibet
Thai-Son in his real environment like a bear in the forrest or a Leopard on the steppes should be a bit hard for Salvatore to contain. Salvatore beat Thai-Son on clay in Italy in 2015 two years before T-S became pro and I surely doubt that he will get to repeat that feat on this surface in the US where T-S thrives. I think T-S played well enough yesterday v Hyeon Chung for a cover of this handicap to happen. Hyeon is rusty sure but he's slowly regaining his strenghts and needs matches like the one yesterday and if T-S could win in straights yesterday v an opponent like the former top 20 korean this handicap shouldn't be a hustle. Salvatore at his best on clay is no match on hard in the US for T-S even if he loses a set.

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Caroline Garcia to beat Ysaline Bonaventure at 1.72 with Pinnacle

Frustration everywhere so far for me in this season, but I'll go with Garcia after her determined effort against Minnen. Bonaventure isn't better than Minnen and I think the confidence boost for Garcia is going to be tremendous after overcoming so many deficits in the previous match. The quality is still there and she should be playing more freely with that win on board, so I'm not sure why we're getting almost the same price as against Minnen. I'd have Garcia closer to the 1.50 mark.

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19 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Caroline Garcia to beat Ysaline Bonaventure at 1.72 with Pinnacle

Frustration everywhere so far for me in this season, but I'll go with Garcia after her determined effort against Minnen. Bonaventure isn't better than Minnen and I think the confidence boost for Garcia is going to be tremendous after overcoming so many deficits in the previous match. The quality is still there and she should be playing more freely with that win on board, so I'm not sure why we're getting almost the same price as against Minnen. I'd have Garcia closer to the 1.50 mark.

Hey Czech! Someone said that this forum is still around and well, so I told myself to check back in for a nice message. Good to see you, still alive and well, giving out tips, for better or worse the wta is a terribly hard leage to bet in, so I stayed with ITF and of course the WTA Challengers where there are a lot of ITF players playing, like this week in Indian Wells. Anyways, its just a nice feeling to write here, where I all started my tipster career, I also have my website done not so long ago, I would appreciate it if you would comment on it, you can find it on my twitter page @shambata0901, so this way I hope this doesnt count for solicitating. Good to see Four-leaf and liquidglass as well here, still alive and kicking. All the best to all of you guys!

Shamba

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Alison Van Uytvanck vs Viktoriya Tomova Under 20.5 Games at 1.72 with 888

I think there is a big difference between these 2 players. Van Uytvanck destroyed Kawa in her first match here (6-1, 6-3) and she did not concede a single BP in the whole match. Tomova had a hard match against Frech (7-5, 6-7, 6-4). 

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@shambata All the best mate, this one-off promo is fine for all your contributions!

John Patrick Smith to beat Gian Marco Moroni at 1.73 with Pinnacle

JP Smith clearly likes something in the Monterrey air, since he's dropped just two games in his last two matches! Yes, that's right, two games, that's great against any sort of opposition and Diez is no bad player in any case. He was bound to bounce back sooner or later, so I'm going to take this opportunity and back him to surge even higher, as Moroni has a lower potential ceiling than him in my opinion, which is evidenced by the recent results of the two.

Lauren Davis (-3) to beat Arantxa Rus at 1.83 with Pinnacle

Arantxa Rus is one of those mercurial players that can hit a mean ball, but that tend to struggle when they aren't on song and the ball just keeps coming back to them. It's hard to say where she's at form-wise given that she had an easy retirement match in the first round, but what's easy to say is that Davis is going to return a lot of balls from tough positions and that's something that could easily frustrate Rus to no end. Davis hasn't been losing to many worse players in recent times and this looks like a good opportunity for her.

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Two interesting (imo :) ) double matches in WTA Lyon


1. Lapko / Marozava-Pigossi / Van Der Hoek. Looking at the ranking and match results, odds 3.2 on BF on Pigossi / Hoek is exaggerated and too high.


2.Paar / Wachaczyk-Lechemia / Ponchet. The same can be said about this match: Paar / Wachaczyk (1.83 at Pinn)  is much more experienced and harmonious pair. Many ITF tournaments wins.

Edited by lelit

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