Non-League Predictions > 13th August

[Darran]

Boreham Wood v Notts County (National League)

Not a game I was planning on getting involved, but then originally the home side were 5/4 and now you can get 2/1 and bigger which for me is the wrong price. County did dominate last week against Maidenhead and fully deserved their comfortable win, but this game should be much tougher. As we know Wood are very hard to beat at home and they got off to a very good start when beating Southend 1-0 last week. They ended up with only 9 men on the pitch as well so to hold on was especially impressive. They did only have 4 shots the whole match, but it was a great move for the goal and they could allow Southend to have a lot of the ball because their xG of 0.67 from 11 shots highlights they created very little during the game despite having 68% of possession. You would imagine County will be capable of creating better chances, but then I would imagine Wood will also look to be on the front foot more at home. I'd probably make the away side slight favs, but nowhere near as heavy favs as they are so I am happy to play.

 

Maidstone v York (National League)

I was very happy with the performance from York last week given we are on them ante-post albeit they did beat one of the other tips Woking who were very disappointing. York hadn't had a very good pre-season, but it just highlights that pre-season form is basically meaningless when it comes to the real action. Maidstone did better than I thought they would at Altrincham, but it could be I have overrated Alty and I certainly think York will finish above them this season. I'm surprised that the home side have been backed for this as I think York have the superior side and hopefully that can play out on Saturday.

 

Yeovil v Wrexham (National League)

I really think Yeovil could be in a relegation battle this season and nothing I saw in the live game against Scunthorpe last week changed my mind. They were hardly in the game at all and were slightly fortunate to even score 1 given their xG was just 0.64. Scunthorpe's 2nd goal was a defensive disaster as Yeovil's defence and midfield just allowed Jacob Butterfield to run and run from just inside his own half as they backed off him until he reached the penalty box and he got a shot away and scored. It was literally as if they just let him have an open invitation to score a goal If they defend in a similar way against Wrexham then the Welsh side's attackers should have a field day. They surprisingly made hard work of beating Eastleigh last week, but Eastleigh's goal came via a bad goalkeeping error and after that it was pretty much all Wrexham. They had 20 shots for an xG of 2.14, they had 67.8% possession and most impressively they had an accuracy rate of 85% from the 481 passes they attempted during the game. Take out the keeping error and they win easily and they really ought to do the same on Saturday. Not surprisingly Wrexham have been backed, but they still look value to cover the -1 handicap.

 

Chorley v Darlington (National League North)

The xG's in Chorley's opening game were 0.57 for Chorley and 0.34 for AFC Telford which pretty much sums up the quality of the game. Telford ended up winning it win 1-0 and the goal was pure route one coming from a kick out from the keeper with the ball flicked on for the striker to score. It was also helped by the fact a Chorley defender slipped and in reality, the game should have been goalless. I don't think Chorley look as strong as they did last season and Darlington do so, I think they are overpriced here. They beat my own side Gloucester on the opening day 3-1 and whilst a sending off just after Gloucester had equalised helped, I do think Darlington deserved their victory. I'd make Darlington slight favs to win this.

 

St Albans v Oxford City (National League South)

I was a bit surprised Oxford were beaten 3-1 on the opening day at home to Eastbourne, but I think conceding a penalty after 4 minutes didn't help and then the 2nd goal came on 25 minutes which was a tap in almost on the line from a corner. To come from that in the first game of the season was always going to be tough and I think they are better than they were able to show. They travel to a St Albans side who got a point against Chelmsford in what was a poor game of football. I think Chelmsford will struggle this season so for St Albans to struggle against them doesn't exactly bode well. Oxford made the play-offs last season and I think they will be eyeing up the top 7 again so they will be looking to get their first victory on the board here.

 

Stourbridge v Tamworth (Southern Premier Central)

Our main bets for the title Tamworth hosted the favourites Ilkeston on the opening day of the season and it ended in a 1-1 draw after the teams shared goals in the last 10 minutes. Perfectly satisfactory start to the season for them and I am hoping they can get their first win on the season on Saturday against Stourbridge. It was a heavy 3-0 defeat to Alvechurch on Saturday for their opening game and that suggests things aren't going to get any better for them after a tough season last time around. I'd make Tamworth clear favourites.

 

Boreham Wood 1pt @ 9/4 with SBK and Bet365 (take up to 7/4)

York 1pt @ 2/1 with Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred and SBK (Bet365 are 9/4 and take up to 6/4)

Wrexham -1 1pt @ 6/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Skybet (take up to 5/4)

Darlington 1pt @ 7/4 with Skybet, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 11/8)

Oxford City 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and BetVictor (take up to 6/4)

Tamworth 1pt @ 29/20 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 5/4)

[bromsgrovegreen]

Needham Market are at home to my side Bromsgrove Sporting. We lost 2-1 last Saturday at home to perennial strugglers St Ives which doesn't bode well although it's still very early days. It was a poor game tbh,not much quality.

Needham are 10-11 which is worth a small bet imo

 

 

Edited August 13, 2022 by bromsgrovegreen