Torque

50 days till Xmas which means it is an expensive time for most of us so hoping to hit a good run and see if I can turn £10 into £250. 
 
Max odds of 1.05 am using Smarkets for this one so 2% commission applies. 
  

Nice one Fader 

BOL @shrewd.

A bit like Humbert against Murray recently. I honestly think if you can hold serve having fended off break points it's almost better than holding serve easily. It's such a psychological boost for the server and so frustrating for the receiver, and I reckon it often spills into the next game so that the server that's gotten out of being broken has a better chance of breaking than would normally be the case - although I have no data to back that up and so could be wrong.

nadal didn't look good either. medvedev 0/9 breakpoints in the deciding set. strange

Easy winner. Djokovic didn't look that good from what I saw - would have been interesting to see what would have happened if he'd dropped that first set like he should have done. This week is definitely one to be wary of when it comes to the big names and in particular those that have qualified for the O2. Medvedev yesterday for example - I'm not sure he loses against Chardy if he needed to win to qualify for the tour finals.

Easy winner. Djokovic didn't look that good from what I saw - would have been interesting to see what would have happened if he'd dropped that first set like he should have done. This week is definitely one to be wary of when it comes to the big names and in particular those that have qualified for the O2. Medvedev yesterday for example - I'm not sure he loses against Chardy if he needed to win to qualify for the tour finals.

10 yellows in the end. That must have been some payout for anyone who was on the right side of the spreads. 

One bet no-one ever seems to want to place is on 0-0, so maybe with some filters that could be a fruitful strategy - although I remember years ago someone on here tried to turn a profit backing 0-0 but I don't recall it being successful. Probably not much of a useful contribution from me reading this back 

Up to you of course but I'd persist. It's a tiny sample relative to the odds - profits at this stage wouldn't mean all that much and so a deficit doesn't mean all that much either. It would take some time but you'd have a far better idea of how this is going if you could get up to the 1000 bet mark 

Hey guys! New to the site. Haven't regularly punted in quite a while, but the taste for a little weekend flutter has returned again. Felt I needed to sign up to a forum, as if I'm not articulating & putting my thoughts into black and white, I can be a little lazy/loose - and if I'm a little lazy/loose, then the bookies are sure to win - and we don't want that to happen, do we? ?   So my first post is hardly much of a "tip", but I think Manchester United are nailed on to brush aside Norwich on tomorrow afternoon, and seeing them quoted around 4/5 looks generous to me.   Ole's side have seen their best performances this season come when playing possession based teams; when the emphasis isn't so much on trying to unlock a stubborn deep-block, but just having a compact settled-shape off the ball & pressing aggressively. They beat Leicester & Chelsea this season with less of the ball, and put in, what I thought, was a very good performance vs. Liverpool last weekend with around 35% possession.   Norwich execute a patient, position-play focused possession game with strong emphasis on building from the back (it's naive, if you ask me, but anyway). Only the "big 6", Leicester & Graham Potter's Brighton pass the ball more on average than Norwich, and only 6 sides (City, Chelsea, Leicester, Spurs, Liverpool & Brighton) average more passes-per-min-of-possession; so they're zipping it around at a brisk tempo - the  only issue is, they predominantly do it in risky, almost Louis van Gaal-esque deep areas:     And to add to that, they're playing against a side who before the Liverpool game, only allowed opponents on average to construct ~8 passes before forcing a possession turnover. United have a lot of effective/capable pressing players in D.James, Rashford, Lingard, Pereira, Fred, McTominay, Wan-Bissaka (his pressing intensity really impressed me vs. Andy Robertson), etc., most of whom, are expected to start, and will be licking their lips at conceding territorial possession and waiting to pounce on an error; specific pressing trigger(s), a lazy pass, etc.   I just think it's a match made in heaven for United. With the recent mood lift courtesy of the solid Liverpool performance, followed by their first away win in a long time on Thursday, on top of the plus of the returning Martial, who may lack the pressing intensity of most of the aforementioned, but brings much missed quality in and around the box;  and against a side who are foot of the table, low on confidence, and despite their "philosophy" playing right into United's hands stylistically, they're likely to be too stubborn to change -  so I'm more than happy to have a substantial single on some of that just-shy-of-evens price floating about.   Good luck if you play or add to your accas.   Hope I can contribute positively in the future. Used to contribute to a forum called Racecaller a few years back.

15pts/Sabalenka to win WTA Zhuhai @ 6.50 Paddy Power

For sure, you bring up some valid points yet the spread is almost always covered in rugby so it really depends!

Cheers @Torque it's a valid observation. In traditional fixed odds terms people like to bet on goals and positive outcomes so draws generally and 0-0 specifically probably aren't that popular. In spread terms that might translate to selling total goals, the goal rush, shirt numbers or goal minutes.
It's all grist to the mill as, ultimately, it might help me decide which markets to study first. This would be something that needed to be tracked for a while before putting real money down.

One bet no-one ever seems to want to place is on 0-0, so maybe with some filters that could be a fruitful strategy - although I remember years ago someone on here tried to turn a profit backing 0-0 but I don't recall it being successful. Probably not much of a useful contribution from me reading this back 

One bet no-one ever seems to want to place is on 0-0, so maybe with some filters that could be a fruitful strategy - although I remember years ago someone on here tried to turn a profit backing 0-0 but I don't recall it being successful. Probably not much of a useful contribution from me reading this back 

With the occasional post using the "holy grail" hook to attract attention I thought I'd post some thoughts and a question.
If I ever found a genuine "HG" I'm pretty sure I wouldn't reveal it on here or post many of my bets. I also wouldn't come on to do any of the "cock inflating" hinting and teasing that we occasionally see. Ultimately I'd keep it to myself to preserve the edge because a genuine edge is obviously a fragile and valuable thing.
It's my view that if there is a HG to be found it will involve selling on the spreads. As most people want to buy a thrill (e.g. bet on lots of goals/corners/cards/runs/tries etc.) this is reflected in the prices so that any value is likely to be on the sell side. As Kevin Pullein often points out, the best bargains are often to be found on the bets that no-one wants to place rather than the ones that are obvious and appeal to the majority. Also, most people are more inclined to overestimate how many of these things there will be in a game/match.
In the early days of spread betting (pre-internet and the wide availability of detailed statistics) there were some crazy prices offered, e.g. corners might have been 16-17 or even higher. The opportunity to blindly sell total corners at 16 in every game would yield a substantial guaranteed profit in the long run. Over time the firms and the punters got a better understanding of things, shrewder punters started to sell clearly wrong prices and the markets settled at a point much closer to reality. Despite that, the greater demand from buyers continues to inflate prices to a degree (remember Muppet's successful HG corners thread which ran for years).
So all that gets me to pondering, are there certain markets in certain sports where one could make a profit by blindly selling? Or, perhaps slightly more likely, by applying a limited set of filters such as minimum price and maximum "market" spread width? To give an entirely hypothetical example:
Sell player performance in cricket as long as sell price is 40 or more and spread width is 1 or less. So if a player is 40-44 with both firms that would be no bet but if one firm went 43-47 then that would signal a sell at 43 (as the market price would be 43-44 and the spread width just 1).
Assuming anyone makes it this far (I appreciate there aren't that many spread aficianados on here) the question I'd welcome feedback on is:
Are there any markets that you think are worth looking at from the point of view of the spreads always tending to be on the high side, offering value for a strategy based on selling?

Ugo Humbert to beat Andy Murray @ 3.00 Unibet
I think this is worth a punt. Humbert had a good win over Goffin here before looking like he might get beaten by Pella, before recovering well to win in three sets. He's a good young prospect and exactly the kind of player that can get the better of Murray, who has flattered to deceive during his comeback. Even at this tournament I don't think he's played well, despite three wins. He should have beaten Coppejans more easily than he did, Cuevas was unlikely to cause many problems due to his preference for clay and tendency to fade towards the end of the season and Copil should have been beaten in two sets but in the end it took three. He's giving up to many opportunities on serve, which is leading to longer games which is arguably what he could really do without. Humbert should have the energy to take advantage of the accumulated fatigue and aches and pains that Murray is likely to be feeling at this stage of the tournament, and if he can hold his nerve could get what I'm sure he would see as a big win.

Ugo Humbert to beat Andy Murray @ 3.00 Unibet
I think this is worth a punt. Humbert had a good win over Goffin here before looking like he might get beaten by Pella, before recovering well to win in three sets. He's a good young prospect and exactly the kind of player that can get the better of Murray, who has flattered to deceive during his comeback. Even at this tournament I don't think he's played well, despite three wins. He should have beaten Coppejans more easily than he did, Cuevas was unlikely to cause many problems due to his preference for clay and tendency to fade towards the end of the season and Copil should have been beaten in two sets but in the end it took three. He's giving up to many opportunities on serve, which is leading to longer games which is arguably what he could really do without. Humbert should have the energy to take advantage of the accumulated fatigue and aches and pains that Murray is likely to be feeling at this stage of the tournament, and if he can hold his nerve could get what I'm sure he would see as a big win.

Congratulations to all the winners. I hope you had the conviction of backing your tips, some great profit numbers.
Graham marvelous work, keeping all those stats. l am sure everyone will agree your efforts are extraordinary. Thank you so much.

Somewhere I once read the memories of Genie Bouchard where she described her disappointment because when Grigori visited her once, he preferred watching TV series instead of making love to her. Therefore his behavior will never surprise me

Totally unrelated to this week - or indeed any recent weeks - but I came across the Dimitrov v King match from before the US Open again and the numbers are staggering. It's possibly the most ridiculous tennis match I've ever seen from a heavy favourite. Dimitrov gave up 23 break points across the match, with those points spread across 10 of his 11 service games. I've never seen anything like it - maybe others have. I've no idea what was wrong with Dimitrov that day but that performance really was something else and is possibly Exhibit A in terms of not betting on heavy favourites - you just don't know what frame of mind they're in or if they're carrying niggles that they don't talk about or if they're totally without motivation for whatever reason. The bottom line - at least for me about that match - is that Dimitrov just wasn't there physically or mentally or both. If he was, there's no way to my mind he cedes those numbers on serve and there's no way he loses. I wouldn't have expected to see those numbers if he'd played against Djokovic or Nadal or Federer - and of course he played Federer in the US Open shortly after and won 

Next up I'll be trying for a few goals for Belgium against San Marino. I backed over 2.5 goals in the recent reverse fixture which wasn't the most comfortable winner, but with home advantage Belgium should be able to at least cover the 3.5 goal line so I'll try to back that in-play at a slightly better price than is available now. I was considering a bet on Belgium to win to nil as San Marino are so toothless in attack, but the Belgian defence has Vertonghen and Alderweireld in it and their confidence must be shot to bits right now given the bad run that their club team Tottenham are on.

It's ridiculous to get on anyone's back about a losing run. Without the aid of a crystal ball, no matter how good you are at assessing the odds and trying to pick out value, there will always be losing runs. It's just impossible to avoid. What counts is results over a long series of bets.

I remember reading something along the same lines last season after a couple of adverse results and I posted figures. Unfortunatly some expect everything to win, have no idea about money management or don't understand odds too chance of success.
Just for the record I bet Darran's recommendations. I don't always get the prices that Darran posts because of delay on my part from when Darran posts, often up to 8 hours later.
My figures are as follows, Darran's profit will be bigger due to getting on at top end of market. Note that the Nap's are 6 wins and 10 losses for -5.86 points. I take the Nap as the biggest stake for that weekend or midweek.
Total Stakes  158 points
Returns  174.48
Profit  16.48
ROI  10.4%
10% ROI on football 1X2 market is more than credible and I would safely say that at prices recommended the ROI would be in excess of 12%.