Tennis Tips - October 14 - October 20

[CzechPunter]

[vvararu]

Antwerp ATP

Kwon Soon -  Gasquet

Gasquet is not shining this year. After Cincinnati he couldn't get but 1 win (against Granollers) out of 5 games. He lost agains Thiem, Goffin, Paire... Before that he won several games agains Schwartzman, Bautista-Agut, Murray.

On the other side Kwon Soon seems to do better statistically. He played and won more games, however, most of Korean's games were against lower ranked players. He still have some wins agains good players as Pouille, Millman.

Considering that:

• overall Gasquet is a much more experienced player.
• Gasquet should be OK physically having not so many games played in the last period.
• Gasquet has to defend his semi-final points from last year.
• Kwon Soon is far away from home and had to fly almost 9000 km from Korea.

I expect Gasquet to take this game easy or hard way. 1.67 at Unibet looks for me a very good price.

[CzechPunter]

Richard Gasquet to beat Kwon Soon-woo at 1.61 with Bet365

Very much agree with what's been said above.

Mikael Ymer to beat Joao Sousa at 1.85 with Pinnacle

Given that this is going to take place in Stockholm, I simply have to side with the in-form Ymer that's always done relatively well in home conditions and who is in a stunning form at the moment. Yes, most of those wins did happen on the Challenger circuit, but he's good enough to play on the main one already and Sousa should be lacking some confidence after a not-so-great year, so I'd have the home boy as a somewhat bigger favorite.

[FrenchPunter]

Peter Gojowczyk to beat Guido Pela at 2.55 with Parions Sport

These two players have already clashed 3 times. Pella won the only game on clay (in Barcelona last year), while Gojowczyk won in both hard games (the last one at the beginning of the year in Auckland). Pella will participate in this ATP 250 Belgian for the 3rd year in a row. He has never managed to pass this 1st round. For its part, Gojowczyk played only once this tournament in Antwerp. It was in 2017 and he failed to win his 1st match. Pella has not won a game since August 12 and won against Ruud in Cincinnati. Gojowczyk, meanwhile, is already 8 consecutive losses. The German does not succeed since his excellent performance in Washington last July (where he defeated Rublev, De Minaur, Raonic and Edmund).

I think Pella will be a favorite in this meeting. The Argentinian is not on his favorite surface, but he has a catchy tennis that annoys more than one player. He knows how to dismiss big services and hold long exchanges by staying behind his baseline line. However, I really want to believe in a victory of Gojowczyk. This indoor surface is perfect for him to regain confidence and play with his weapons. We must not forget that the German knows very well serve and use his power to overwhelm his opponents. The speed of the court could amplify this phenomenon and allow him to surprise Pella.

All series end one day. Gojowczyk could enjoy a more familiar surface to regain a taste for victory.

[FrenchPunter]

Janko Tipsarevic to beat Corentin Moutet at 2.75 with Parions Sport

It will be a 1st between these two players. Janko Tipsarevic has already participated once in this ATP 250 in Stockholm. It was 2004 and he was eliminated in the 2nd round after defeating Berdych. For his part, Corentin Moutet will play this Swedish tournament for the 1st time in his career. At 35, Tipsarevic will retire at the end of the season. This makes him a very difficult player to analyze as he is able to play transcended for his last matches. Despite his physical weaknesses, the Serb has significant qualities that could hurt Moutet well. Tipsarevic is able to play a very offensive tennis and win winning shots on both sides (even more on this surface). Corentin Moutet knows how to be catchy and physically demanding, but he is far from being in an incredible form. For proof, he has won only 3 of his last 10 games (most of which in Challenger against opponents outside the Top 100).

Tipsarevic is a former Top 10 player (8th in 2012) who is very experienced. If his body holds, he could beat Moutet.

[vvararu]

Last minute call.

Moscow ATP

Garin - Seppi

Seppi had a pretty good performance in September in Cary Challenger in USA where he won the tournament. Taking in consideration that he has to defend semi-final points from last year and that hard court is not the favourite of Garin, I think 1.9 Unibet for Seppi to win is a pretty good price. 

P.S. Not a decisive factor, but Chile is much farther away than Italy.

 

Added post match

I watched the first two sets and the game was pretty even. The difference was the bigger number of unforced error made by Garin and a better game of Seppi in critical moments (in tie-breaks as well).

Edited October 14, 2019 by vvararu

[FrenchPunter]

Radu Albot to beat Yoshito Nishioka at 1.71 with Parions Sport

These two players have already crossed once. It was at Delray Beach in 2016, and Albot won 6-4 6-3. Nishioka has never played this tournament in Stockholm, while Albot has already participated once in 2016. He was eliminated in the 2nd round.

We are dealing with two very mobile players who know how to hold exchanges. I have a slight preference for Albot because he knows how to get his points, especially in forehand. Nishioka often prefers to be good at defending before attempting an attack. Faced with such a player, it could discover him several times. Albot and Nishioka have struggled to take off for several weeks now. As proof, they have not won two games in a row since last August. Therefore, we are not immune to the bad shape of one of the two men (or even two lol).

The Moldovan is the player who made the best impression in recent weeks. He lacked regularity and success at times, but his tennis was above that offered by the Japanese.

[vvararu]

What a good start for Gasquet and what a bad 2nd and 3rd sets.  

[FrenchPunter]

44 minutes ago, vvararu said:

What a good start for Gasquet and what a bad 2nd and 3rd sets.  

Exactly like Albot  

[FrenchPunter]

Roberto Carballes Baena to beat Andreas Seppi at 3.05 with Parions Sport

It will be a 1st between these two players. This is the 7th time that Seppi participates in this Russian tournament. The Italian has often achieved great performances here: 2 x 1/4 finals, 2 x 1/2 finals and one victory (in 2012). In summary, he was eliminated once at this level of the competition. This week, the Italian won against Garin, in 3 sets including 2 tie-breaks. For his part, Carballes Baena also won his 1st match of the week in 3 sets. It was against Berankis. Moreover, this is the first time he plays this ATP 250 Moscow.

Carballes Baena has significant qualities, a good first ball, an interesting return and a mobility that can be difficult to overflow. I sincerely believe that the Spaniard has the opportunity to embarrass Seppi. The Italian may have the advantage of the surface, but he is much less striking lately. He is more feverish about his service games (a 1st ball that hardly exceeds 50% and another 12 break points conceded in his last match) Carballes Baena does not concede so many opportunities. This tenacious player has the ability to oppress his 35-year-old opponent to generate fouls.

[FrenchPunter]

Lukas Rosol to beat Dusan Lajovic at 2.15 with Parions Sport

It will be the 3rd time that these two players will compete, after Indian Wells in 2014 and Bucarest in 2015. Rosol has won these two previous matches. Lajovic took advantage of his ranking to skip the 1st round. The Serbian will participate in this Moscow ATP 250 for the 7th time of his career. He has never managed to go further in this tournament. Rosol meanwhile comes out of qualifying. He then won his 1st round against Londero (less striking on this surface, but still annoying to play). This is the 6th time he has participated in this tournament. He had not managed to pass this 2nd round in 2018 and his best performance was a quarterfinal in 2012.

Rosol is far from his good years when he managed to integrate the Top 30 (in 2014). Since 2016, the Czech has emerged from the Top 100 and is running after his best level (and obviously lacks speed). I must admit to being surprised to see Lajovic be the favorite of the bookies to leave with the victory. Indeed, apart from his ranking (currently 32nd), he is far from offering an incredible level of play (especially on this surface). The Serb has only won 2 of his last 10 games and he is clearly out of pace.

In my opinion, Rosol will have the advantage of the surface. The Czech is also in much better shape and has already made his mark in Moscow. I think we all agree that he is not the most regular player on the circuit (far from that, by the way lol). But I had the opportunity to see part of his match against Londero and I loved it. Rosol was very solid at the service and was able to execute his excellent forehand to take speed an opponent supposed to be comfortable in trading.

[vvararu]

Antwerp ATP

Kwon Soon - Pella

Against my prediction, Kwon Soon succeeded to beat Gasquet. In my opinion, that happened because of the poor physical form of Gasquet. He played well first set and a part of the second but later, in longer rallies, he started to go from offensive to defensive more and more often.

Kwon Soon looks good looking at the stats. This year he played a lot of games on hard court a won almost all of them. To be noticed that almost all of the opponents, excepting a few (Gasquet himself, Pouille, Londero) were either outside top 100.

Pella does not look so impressive statistically. He played less hard-court games and his favourite surface seems to be clay. Starting with august, he played 12 hard-court games and won 6 of them. To be noticed that almost all the opponents were < top 50. He lost to guys like Basilashvilli, Careno-Busta, Schwartzman but also beat Goffin, Albot, Dimitrov.

These two guys played against each other on hard court a couple of months ago and Pella won 2:1, taking last 2 sets 6:1, 6:2. I count on Pella's slightly superior quality and experience of games against better players. Pella to win @1.83 Unibet.

[CzechPunter]

Yuichi Sugita to beat Stefano Travaglia at 2.14 with Pinnacle

Honestly, I'm not quite sure why Sugita is the underdog here, as I'd have the odds 50/50 at the very least. He's always been better than Travaglia outside clay and, despite a certain slump, he's regained his confidence recently and he's been performing better than his next opponent, who has some really terrible losses to his name in recent times. Of course, Travaglia did beat Opelka in the first round and I reckon that this is the number one reason for the market favoring him, but Opelka is so one-dimensional that he is simply bound to get these odds losses every now and then. On top of that, Sugita wasn't too shabby in the first round either, beating a home boy in a fairly one-sided encounter, so I think that there's value - although probably fairly marginal - in backing him this time around.

[FrenchPunter]

Kiki Bertens to beat Kaia Kanepi at 1.52 with Parions Sport

This will be the 2nd meeting between these two players after the victory of Kanepi in two sets in Seoul in 2012 on hard. Since things have changed a lot, Bertens has climbed to the 8th while Kanepi seems stuck around the 100th. Last week on the same playing field in Linz, Bertens defeated Van Uytvanck & Doi before losing in the quarter-final against Gauff (the winner of the tournament). Kanepi has won her last four games without losing a set but we must not forget that her opponents were outside the Top 100 including a victory over abandonment. Last year Bertens lost to Sasnovich when she entered the competition and will probably want to do better because she needs a big week to reach the WTA finals in Shenzen.

[FrenchPunter]

Egor Gerasimov to beat Andrey Rublev at 2.75 with Parions Sport

These two guys know each other well. They have already met three times between 2013 and 2014. Important information, Gerasimov won all three games. This is the 5th time that Rublev participates in this Moscow ATP 250, and the 1st time he wins a match. This week, for his entry into the competition, the Russian won against Bublik (in 3 sets, without tie-break). For his part, Gerasimov plays this tournament for the 2nd year in a row. For that, he had to go through the qualifications. In the 1st round, he won against Fabbiano. In addition, you should know that the guy had reached the quarter-finals last season. He had indeed beaten Dzumhur and Paire, before Mannarino put a stop to him.

Rublev plays at home and is much better ranked. This explains the fact that he is wearing the favorite cap. However, I do not expect the Russian to easily win this game. In fact, I want to say that he did not make a good impression in his 1st game of the week against Bublik. Indeed, Rublev was very feverish in trade, even in forehand, and he was not very reassuring on his service games (only 56% of 1st balls and 45% of points earned on his 2nds). I sincerely believe that Gerasimov has the opportunity to afford Andrey Rublev's scalp. The Belarusian has been in shape for several weeks now (he has also managed to reach the semi-finals of the last tournament in St. Petersburg). He feels comfortable indoor and it shows on his service: he made a lot of 1sts (82% in his last match) and concedes little opportunity.

I expect a very close match between a player "less good" in a good dynamic, and another "confirmed" a little less in the game lately.

Edited October 17, 2019 by FrenchPunter

[opole]

ATP Antwerp

Pablo Cuevas 3.80 Pinnacle 5/10

I like Cuevas here. He looked decent in R1, not clowning and joking vs. a guy he should beat without problems - and he did beat that guy without any problems. He served well and his groundgame was on point. Andy Murray is kind of a surprise to me. I can remember betting on Matteo Viola to beat Andy Murray and he really beat him. It was probably one of the worst defeats Murray has suffered in his whole career but to be honest i thought Andy Murray is about to be done. Now he's back with decent results on a decent level. He beat guys like Norrie, Berrettini, Londero and Sandgren. Losing to names like De Minaur, Fognini or Thiem is no shame either. I think we can expect him to be even better in 2020 with a decent camp and prep. I watched his first round encounter with local wild card Coppejans closely and i think Murray is a bit off this week. He had a tough time in Asia with a couple of really exhausting matches, he travelled a lot last few weeks, now his wife is getting a baby this week, he already told the media that he's playing in Belgium because of the fact he can travel home quickly. He definitely looked off in the first round, Coppejans had many, many chances to take the second set but was wasting leads all over again. I think Cuevas is a tough matchup for Murray right now. Murray will need to run a lot, Cuevas playing a good mixture. He's serving well, hitting groundstrokes very hard but playing also with angles. I think Murray will have to work very hard and i'm not sure if he can. He still has two big tasks ahead apart from supporting his wife while getting a baby: There is a Masters tournament in Paris, a big tournament and a good chance for him to get some points as usually the Top players not playing that well there because it's the last official tournament of the season. And second, maybe even more important, Davis Cup Final in Spain. I really think Murray will play Singles there. I know it isn't confirmed but GB doesn't have many options right now. It will come down to Murray, Norrie, Edmund or Evans. Considering Edmund is in really bad form right now and Murray beating Norrie recently i think the final decision might be Evans/Murray for singles. Anyway, i think Murray isn't at 100% and he might not be too sad if he loses early this week. To get some rest before he's heading into Paris and Davis Cup. I take my chance here at that price, i think Cuevas is a living dog in here.

[CzechPunter]

Kirsten Flipkens (+1.5 sets) to beat Belinda Bencic at 1.91 with Pinnacle

Bencic is still sort of alive in the race I guess, but things aren't looking rosy and she isn't looking rosy either, with her recent struggles showing her not being fit physically. Perhaps the season is now well and truly taking its toll and perhaps it was unwise for her to play last week, but the bottom line is that Flipkens played better than her in the first round and that she also has the right playing style for frustrating Bencic unless she's completely on. Chances are that she won't be on for at least a set, so I like the odds for the set handicap, although the outright win is naturally playable as well.

[vvararu]

Cuevas’ game is just under the level of Murray’s. And the last even has not work so much. Let’s see second set but I don’t see how it’s gonna change.

[CzechPunter]

Steven Diez (+1.5 sets) to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 1.84 with Sbobet

For some reason, Fokina doesn't seem to be too comfortable in China, having already dropped sets against two weaker opponents than Diez. The Canadian, on the other hand, has been steamrolling the opposition so far and his win over Gunneswaran today was just surprisingly easy, so I'm not sure why he should be such a big underdog in this one. He doesn't have the same potential as Fokina overall, but he seems to be the better player of the two in this tournament and I do fancy him to grab at least a set from the encounter.

[vvararu]

Quick question @CzechPunter @four-leaf @opole @French Punter and others.

 

Have anybody followed Tiafoe? Does he seem to be returning to his good days? Is he in a good form to beat Sinner?

[CzechPunter]

Haven't followed Tiafoe, but Sinner has more talent imo. Would pick him today at the current odds if I had to.

[four-leaf]

I have to agree with @CzechPunter here, Tiafoe doesn't seem to be going anywhere with his current status and he's not worth to back outside of the US like most americans.

[FrenchPunter]

Monica Puig to beat Julia Goerges at 2.45 with Parions Sport

This will be the 7th time that these two players will face each other, Puig leads 4-2 for the moment.
Goerges had a good 1st half of season winning the Auckland Open and reaching the final in Birmingham. Yet she has weakened considerably for two months and what she has shown since the beginning of this tournament confirms it. Indeed, the German lost each of the first sets against Doi and Cirstea with a low success rate on his break points.
Puig on his side hopes to end the season on a positive note by reaching her 1st singles final in two seasons. Coincidentally, the last time she reached the final was here in Luxembourg in 2017. Unlike her opponent of the day she looks more in shape after demolishing Ferro and bravely imposed against Pliskova.

It is obviously a risky bet but I really want to believe in a victory of the Puerto Rican who is in full confidence and who will certainly want to take revenge after losing the last confrontation with the German at Wimbledon last year.

[lelit]

Tomorrow important match for Bencic because she can secure participation in WTA finals (https://live-tennis.eu/en/wta-race). The opponent was once a very close friend Mladenovic. But is around 1.57 exciting enough?

Edited October 18, 2019 by lelit

[vvararu]

25 minutes ago, lelit said:

Tomorrow important match for Bencic because she can secure participation in WTA finals (https://live-tennis.eu/en/wta-race). The opponent is once a very close friend Mladenovic. But is around 1.57 exciting enough?

Sounds good. Thanks for the tip.

[kedbet]

i don't even think she should be favourite tomorrow. she lost the last four meetings vs mladenovic. kiki plays her best tennis on indoor hard courts. the only time kiki beat her in straight sets was in fed cup on an indoor hard court in switzerland. kiki beat way better opponents in moscow. kiki has a great coach with bajin. the only reason for giving her these odds is the current wta ranking and the chance to qualify for the wta finals. her form is still way off, she could have easily lost to flipkens today. if she loses the first set tiebreak she is mentally done, just like flipkens was after wasting all these setpoints. plus she has even more pressure now and i don't think that will help her game in any way. skip or take an over, because they're both shaky as hell.

Edited October 18, 2019 by kedbet

[lelit]

kedet,

Do not count matches when Belinda recovered from numerous surgerys. In 4 matches of 5 played, Bencic was the favorite. Anyway I admit that value is on Mladenowic 2.5 and Bencic is not in topform.
Personally, I believe that everything Kiki can do in tennis, Bencic can do better :))  But this is WTA; players are tired at this time of year, therefore a lot of unexpected results.

 Bencic is often hysterical; her father is absent, her fiance / fitness coach is coaching her, It could be a problem...

Edited October 19, 2019 by lelit

[kedbet]

1 hour ago, lelit said:

Personally, I believe that everything Kiki can do in tennis, Bencic can do better :))

i completely agree.. so what you guys think, trust bencic in this one?

[CzechPunter]

Well, she's clearly more likely to win due to a variety of factors, but the odds aren't that great imo.

[lelit]

Y

29 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, she's clearly more likely to win due to a variety of factors, but the odds aren't that great imo.

You're right, maybe I needlessly mentioned this match.