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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 2nd August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Here's the results from the system selections this afternoon ...... not so good as yesterday with just the one winner at 11/2

    Bit unlucky at Catterick with 2nd in every race .......

    Ffos 1.25 - Al Kout 172, Winklevi 150
    Ffos 3.00 - Bonus 136 (WON 11/2) - other selection a NR
    Ffos 3.30 - Angels Roc 134, Showman 133, (3rd 17/2)
    Ffos 4.00 - Coronation Cottage 171, Secretfact 170

    Catt 3.15 - Haven Lady 142 (2nd 7/2), Urban Forest 126
    Catt 3.45 - Ginato 125, Quercus 124 (2nd 11/2)
    Catt 4.15 - Purple Reign 122 (2nd 5/2), Cavendish 117
    Catt 4.45 - Just Set Go 169, Shesadabber 134 (2nd 9/1)

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 2nd August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    This afternoons system selections ......

    Handicaps - top two rated ..... seems to have picked out a few longshots today !

    Ffos 1.25 - Al Kout 172, Winklevi 150
    Ffos 3.00 - Pope Gregory 152, Bonus 136
    Ffos 3.30 - Angels Roc 134, Showman 133
    Ffos 4.00 - Coronation Cottage 171, Secretfact 170

    Catt 3.15 - Haven Lady 142, Urban Forest 126
    Catt 3.45 - Ginato 125, Quercus 124
    Catt 4.15 - Purple Reign 122, Cavendish 117
    Catt 4.45 - Just Set Go 169, Shesadabber 134

     

    I don't know why I can't get the C&P from Word (or this typing here) to be the same text size as normal typing in the Reply Box ........ I did yesterday but can't today. There does seem to be some strange Settings on the site !

     

    Racing Chat - Monday 1st August.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    This evenings results from the RPR/RTF system ......

    Wind 5.15 - Delegate This Lord 148, For Peats Sake 138
    Wind 6.25 - Total Comittment 177, Cuban Breeze 170 (WON 17/2)
    Wind 7.00 - Yarralumla 149, Lebsayer 135 (2nd 9/4)
    Wind 8.00 - Janus 149 (3rd 12/1), Charlie Arthur 148
    Wind 8.30 - Mr Freedom 165, King of the Kippax 127

    not as good as this afternoon but a nice priced winner and a couple of places

    Racing Chat - Monday 1st August.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Results update from system selections above - top two rated in handicaps 

    Ayr 1.48 - Ayr Poet 132 (WON 5/2) City of Life 127
    Ayr 2.18 - Water of Leith 140 (WON Evs) Earn Your Stripes 116
    Ayr 2.48 - Glasses Up 147, White Willow 142, Whats The Story 142 (WON 11/8)
    Ayr 3.18 - One Last Hug 134 (2nd), Milliemix 131


    Rip 2.25 - Dream Deal 129, Bonita B 127 (WON 3/1)
    Rip 2.55 - Storm Chaser 145, Lord Caprio 133 (WON 16/1)
    Rip 3.25 - Joint top - Dakota Gold 165 (2nd), Chairmanoftheboard 165 (3rd)
    Rip 3.55 - Gainsbourg 158, Cosmos Raj 132 (WON 8/1)
    Rip 5.00 - Bit of a Quirke 135, Spantik 133 (2nd)

     

    Have to say that is a pretty good day !

    Racing Chat - Monday 1st August.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Trotter
    get rid of those spaces between lines !

    Following on from my RPR/RTF system yesterday I'm having another go with a couple of tweaks ......

    First of all I'm sticking to handicaps today because the RPR is likely to be based on more evidence than for novice, maiden, two year old conditions races etc. I would probably include group & listed races for older horses but there aren't any today

    Secondly I'm only going to post the top and second top rated ...... no point really posting 3 horses in a race, I can't see any circumstance in which I'd ever back 3 horses in a race, but I would sometimes back two

    Here's this afternoon's handicaps (might check out the evening cards later)

     

    Ayr 1.48 - Ayr Poet 132, City of Life 127
    Ayr 2.18 - Water of Leith 140, Earn Your Stripes 116
    Ayr 2.48 - Glasses Up 147, White Willow 142, Whats The Story 142
    Ayr 3.18 - One Last Hug 134, Milliemix 131


    Rip 2.25 - Dream Deal 129, Bonita B 127
    Rip 2.55 - Storm Chaser 145, Lord Caprio 133
    Rip 3.25 - Joint top - Dakota Gold 165, Chairmanoftheboard 165
    Rip 3.55 - Gainsbourg 158, Cosmos Raj 132
    Rip 5.00 - Bit of a Quirke 135, Spantik 133

     

    Racing Chat - July 31st

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

    fair enough, i will see how you get on, i think yesterday you was about even at chester yes?

    Just finished ahead on top rated thanks to a 15/2 winner in the last race....... but I would have lost backing all the selections as I was posting the top 2 or 3 in each race depending on EW field sizes. Obviously you'd never back all top 3 rated in every race ...... that would be a short cut to the poor house !

    I'll post today's selections on todays thread later but limit to the top two

     

    Racing Chat - July 31st

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    I get what you are saying and its a sound idea on the surface of it but i looked at that RTF earlier this year and it is as much use as a one legged man in an arse kicking contest in my opinion. Just a couple of examples i looked at Alan kings RTF earlier in the year it was 68% but he hadnt had a winner in 19 days, same with Fabre RTF at 72% he hadnt had a winner in 21 runners but he did have 10 2nds which to me skews the numbers somewhat. Add to that if a trainer has had say 2 winners from 2 runners its 100% RTF as is 1 winner from 1 runner. Might i suggest you run a parallel to what ur doing with regard trainers winners, or even something like 3 pts winners, 2 points 2nds, and 1 point 3rds (last 14 days) just to see if there is a difference or to see which angle comes out better? or even RPR RTF? and Stopwatch.

    I see what you're saying but I don't think of RTF as being about winners ....... a trainer could have his last 6 runners all finish 8th but they might all have run 100% to form if that's where they should have finished according to how good they are. 

    As I see it the RPR is a measure of how good they are and the RTF is a measure of how likely they are to run to that level based on trainerform

    So a horse with a RPR of 100 might be better than a horse with a RPR of 90 but if the former RTF is 10% and the latter is 100% then there's only a one in ten chance that the higher rated one will run to a 100 but a 100% chance than the lower rated one will run to 90

    that's the theory !

     

    Racing Chat - July 31st

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Results update on RPR/RTF system above ....

    Chester

    1.50 - Pink Stripes 177, Kiss N Cuddle 142  (WON 5/4)
    2.20 - Endeared 158 (2nd Evens) Utilis 157, Zephina 147
    2.55 - Princess Shabnam 192 (2nd 7/2), Ventura Diamond166 
    3.30 - Yanifer 199, Paws for Thought 156 (3rd 20/1), Sweeping 155
    4.00 - Rogue Spirit 177, Rock of England 172
    4.30 - Mythical 166, Midraar 157, Wynter Wildes 142 (3rd 16/5)
    5.00 - Cormier 153 (WON 15/2), Wots The Wifi Code 135, Golden Melody 133 (3rd 6/1)

    not bad I suppose ...... thanks to the last race winner just backing the top rated would have made a profit

    Won or placed in every race bar one

    might give it another go ! ...... maybe at a less idiosyncratic track than Chester where my system took no account of the draw which looms large around the Roodeye

     

    Racing Chat - July 31st

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, alexcaruso808 said:

    any reason you are using the RTF and not the stats below the racecard?  Just curious!  Of course, it's your system and I'm trying to get a better understand of where you're coming from.

     

    image.thumb.png.b48d1836503969adbc017a1759a20fac.png

    No particular reason ...... to be honest I never thought of it and the figure I use is on the race card so a bit quicker to go through the field without keep scrolling down

    I suppose they are two different things ...... winners to runners as a % is not quite the same as runners running to form ...... and as I'm using the RPR for form it makes sense to use the latter. It could be the case that a trainers winners win but all his other horses run massively below form, And of course a horse might win but still run below it's form rating, ie if it's in an easy race that doesn't take much winning

     

    Racing Chat - July 31st

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Trotter

    Knowing how we love to come up with ratings systems I've thought of a new one using the Racing Post

    It's very simple ...... you add together 2 figures from the race card ....... the RPR and the Trainers RTF

    RPR is the Post's form figure for the horse ...... RTF is the trainer form figure, ie to what extent are his horses currently running up to their form

    So the rating is trying to answer the question ...... how good is the horse and how likely is it that he'll run up to his level

    Of course it takes no account of trip, going, track suitability but if you're concerned about all that you might as well just do your hours of form study ...... the idea here is that it's quick and simple, based on horses class and trainer form and introduces an element of randomness and whatever the opposite of subjectivity is. So hopefully it'll throw up some of  those random looking winners that you probably wouldn't pick if you were studying form

    Trial Run at Chester ..... number of selections based on field size and EW places

    1.50 - Pink Stripes 177, Kiss N Cuddle 142
    2.20 - Endeared 158, Utilis 157, Zephina 147
    2.55 - Princess Shabnam 192, Ventura Diamond166
    3.30 - Yanifer 199, Paws for Thought 156, Sweeping 155
    4.00 - Rogue Spirit 177, Rock of England 172
    4.30 - Mythical 166, Midraar 157, Wynter Wildes 142
    5.00 - Cormier 153, Wots The Wifi Code 135, Golden Melody 133

    I'll update results later

     

     

     

     

    Racing Chat - Saturday 23rd July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3.00 Ascot

    I like these big 7 furlong handicaps in the straight track at Ascot ...... and I got a system !

    Well, not really a system ..... but look for horses drawn high, who have won over a mile, are still young (maybe 4 or 5) and from a big yard and have course form or Kempton form ...... 

    King Zain - 12/1 bet365 - won at Kempton last time out, has won over a mile, from the Charlton yard, drawn in 21

     

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