Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Best bet of the day 28/02 Taunton 2.30 - Temper Lad 0.5 points EW pretty dire race, a class 5 16 runner selling handicap hurdle. The selection has won 2 races in the last year or so, both of them class 5 selling handicap hurdles with 13 and 17 runners. He seems to be at his best at 16F on heavy ground up to 20F on good ground so todays trip/ground should be ideal. Both his recent wins have been on right-hand tracks from around the top of the handicap - joint top weight today and a claimer taking 5lb off.........both his recent wins have been with a claimer up. Last 2 runs have been in class 3 and class 4.........now back to his level and a good each way chance.
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Re: Trotters Grade Race Selections. Calm before the storm as far as grade races go for the next couple of weeks........ There's a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Kelso on saturday and a grade 3 handicap chase at newbury The novice hurdle might be interesting as the 'usual suspects' are all being prepped for Cheltenham and I guess we'll see a few of the top Scottish and northern trained animals that don't venture to the Grade races at the big southern tracks.......I only immediately recognise one name.........Osaka Dairy.......
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Re: Best Bet of the Day~Tuesday 26th Feb 3.50 Leicester - Sheriff Roscoe 1 point to win Top rated on official figures, dual course winner, gets the trip, and has won on good to firm ground, has won in Class 3.........err, what could possibly go wrong ? :hope
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Re: Trotters Grade Race Selections. Refinement : 3rd at 12/1 Bit of a bonus there as she drifted out to 12/1...........:nana Today : 1 point staked, profit = 0.7 points Running total Points staked : 11 Profit/Loss : + 2.23
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Re: Fontwell - 24/2/08 3.50 It's a tricky race with so many question marks around the principal performers, but I think Refinement is a decent EW option - consistant type, ground, track etc should be OK for her.......she's probably the only one who's guaranteed to run her race and that should put her in the frame. 2.45 Omaley to beat the odds on Fav Oscar Park. He's a dual C/D winner on what is a tricky track and his jumps form is better than Oscar's. Oscar in only favourite because he was a decent hurdler, but he's an iffy jumper and worth taking on
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Re: Trotters Grade Race Selections. 3.50 Fontwell - National Spirit hurdle - 20 furlongs. It's probably a race to leave well alone with so many imponderables....... My Way De Solzen, class act - but you wouldn't want to be putting cash on until you've seen him run a decent race again Ashley Brook - ditto Flight Leader - another classy type, but will he need the run after a year off Lough Derg, this looks a bit sharp for him Elusive Dream - in and out performer In the spirit of making a selection in every race I'll go for what appears to be a 'safe' EW on Refinement at around 7 or 8 to 1. Consistant mare, acts on the ground, ideal trip, acts on sharp tracks - unlike most of the others she'll probably just run her usual race and that should be enough to put her there or thereabouts unless all the classy types have a great day. Refinement - 0.5 points EW
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Sunday 24th 2.45 Fontwell - Omaley, 1 point to win Dual course and distance winner on this tricky figure of 8 track, Nicholls horse, Sam Thomas up, acts on good ground. Well beaten LTO over CD by Air Force One, no disgrace there. But even against such a talkng horse he only went off at 6/4 2nd favourite. Previous run over CD he beat Polinamix who then finished 9L 2nd to Noland next time out. He has an odds on favourite to beat in Oscar Park.........he's an iffy jumper, who probably needs a longer trip and softer ground The two of them are both front runners, it could be a case of 'hold on to your hats, see who cracks first'.........but I think Oscar might make jumping errors if forced to go faster than he wants. Omaley, showing at 5/2 on the Life, 7/2 on the Post.........looks a good bet in what appears to be a two horse race.
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Re: Trotters Grade Race Selections. Oh well........... Numide........Lost Hobbs hill......Lost (fell) Ungaro...........Lost (fell) Binocular.......Won 8/11 Poor day at the office......... stakes : 4 points profit/loss : -3.27 Running totals Points staked : 10 Profit/Loss : + 1.53
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Re: KEMPTON ~SAT 23rd FEB
3rd at 20/1...........:nanaAlthough I've gone for Numide in the BBoTD thread, I quite fancy that Quartano will run a big 'un in the same race at around 25/1.......... -
Re: KEMPTON ~SAT 23rd FEB Although I've gone for Numide in the BBoTD thread, I quite fancy that Quartano will run a big 'un in the same race at around 25/1.......... It's more of a gut feeling........he's only ever run on soft or heavy ground and at stiff tracks and he seems to have just not been getting home as though he only just gets 16F He won his 'bumpers' over 12 and 13 furlongs by wide margins beating horses like Evelith Echo, County Zen by a country mile Obviously highly thought of as he made his hurdles debut in a grade 1 race, the Tolworth, and tho' he pulled up ( soft ground again !) he went off at shorter odds than horses like Sweetheart, Talenti, Psychomodo, Freddie The third.......all of whom have done well since. LTO finished 2nd, well clear of third, at Chepstow on heavy ground again, led most of the way, hung right and no extra from the last. A sharp 2 miles, right-hand, easy track, better ground........he might just get the trip today and run a big race.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Saturday 23rd Feb Kempton 2.05 Numide 1 point to win Classy type off the Flat in France, 5th in the 2006 French Derby, has won two novice hurdles easily. Todays conditions, easy track, decent ground, should make this a speed contest. His rivals with established form all have question marks about them ....Alsadaa wants firm ground, Imsingingtheblues and Pigeon Island would be more suited to a test of stamina rather than speed. Stellino is another promising type has only had 1 run compared to the selections 2
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Re: Trotters Grade Race Selections. Kempton 3.50 grade 2 'Adonis' juvenile hurdle Selection : Binocular, 1 point to win One of the favourites for the triumph, should win this on his way to cheltenham. Another classy import from the Flat in france, like Numide above, his speed should suit this track and ground, tho' he has good form on soft ground. That's tomorrow's grade races, pretty boring selections I'm afraid, three probable favourites and a well fancied one in the handicap Let's hope a couple of them oblige.............:nana
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Re: Trotters Grade Race Selections. The racing post chase, handicap, grade 3 Haven't spent too long on this, it's too competitive and too many runners. I'm going for Ungaro Basically I've started at the top of the handicap and gone down until I've found one who's better on good ground than soft ground. First one up was Ungaro............. There's a couple down the bottom that look to have a good chance, Burntoakboy, Ardaghey, Yardbird, even Herecomestanly, but I'm swayed by the trends which say that the top weights usually win. This sounds reasonable as Kempton is an easy tracks which shouldn't disadvantage the higher weighted horses. All selections so far are 1 point to win
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Re: Trotters Grade Race Selections. Kempton 2.40 The 'Pendil' Novices Chase, 20 furlongs Selection - Hobbs Hill Arguably the best 20F novice around, no reason to desert him until he gets beaten. He's been lightly raced throughout his career so the two months off is no problem, seems to act on any going and any track. Only five runners, he should be able to dominate from the front as his his usual style of winning. Lead On has also won a grade 2 race, but previously had been beaten 22 lengths by Hobbs Hill and is now 7 lbs worse off. Pur De Sivoli has won a couple of races at Wincanton but was well beaten in his only run at this level. One of the sites I look at has Oslot as top-rated.........God knows where that came from, but he does represent Nicholls-Walsh so there might be money for him The 'Life' has Hobbs Hill at 11/10.........I can't believe he's not going to be odds on.
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Re: Trotters Grade Race Selections. Oh blimey........there's another Grade 2 race at Kempton that I hadn't noticed till today.........'Adonis' juvenile hurdle, 2 miles. I might have a look at it later, but first things first.......... 2.05 Kempton - Dovecote Novice Hurdle, 2 miles Selection : Numide Going against my usual practise of sticking with the runners who have the form in the book. There are 3 that look to have acheived the level required but there are question marks against them.......Alsaada wants rattling firm ground or good to firm, Kempton are still saying - Good, Good to Soft in Places. Pigeon Island and I'msingingtheblues both look like they need further than a sharp 2 miles. So.......I'm going for the 'promising' over the established Numide - fifth in the 2006 French Derby, his flat speed and class should be tailor made for this. He's had two runs, two wins over hurdles, in both cases held up and came through like a steam train to win. He might not be the type for a test of stamina at the Festival but today's conditions should suit him down to the ground. Stellino is another promising type and Quartano might run well at a big price But I'm going with Numide...........and if one of the established performers wins, it'll teach me a lesson to stick with the form book as I keep saying I should.............:@:unsure
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day~Thurs 21st Feb
and to you........ As i said on the Huntingdon thread, it's a horrible little race and if i hadn't spent hours studying it, I'd probably leave it alone............:unsureGood luck Trotter :) -
Re: Best Bet Of The Day~Thurs 21st Feb Huntingdon 2.50 Royals Darling, 1 point to win Royals Darling has won in class 2, has won right-handed, has won in small fields, in fact he only wins in very small fields. He sometimes seems a bit ungenuine, but the first time blinkers might do the trick. The ground is a bit of a worry as he seems best on 'soft' but you'd hope that as it was 'good, good/soft in places' yesterday, it can't have dried out too much even tho' it's now 'good'. It's not going to be hard ground. At his best, he's better than these others, so I'll pin my hopes on him putting his best foot forward
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Re: Huntingdon 21/02/08 2.50 Royals Darling Geez, what a horrible little race. Only 5 runners but 4 of them appear to have a good chance of winning and the betting is all over the place from last night's forecast. To make matters worse there are question marks against all of them. Anyway, I've spent so long looking at it that I feel obliged to pick something, or I've just wasted several hours. Royals Darling has won in class 2, has won right-handed, has won in small fields, in fact he only wins in very small fields. He sometimes seems a bit ungenuine, but the first time blinkers might do the trick. The ground is a bit of a worry as he seems best on 'soft' but you'd hope that as it was 'good, good/soft in places' yesterday, it can't have dried out too much even tho' it's now 'good'. It's not going to be hard ground. At his best, he's better than these others, so I'll pin my hopes on him putting his best foot forward.
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Re: Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A
It's from here........ http://www.sireform.com/ I haven't looked round the rest of the site as i think you have to suscribe.....Trotter, Quality bit of info, although a few surprises. Where did you find that, mate? Looks really useful stuff for my favoured type of racing...THE FLAT! -
Re: Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A For Flat racing I've found the following somewhere on the web.........:unsure I thought maybe you could use this list along with the 'Patternform' site to identify those front running handicappers who've been running on unsuitable tracks to get their mark down, then suddenly switch back to Ripon, chester, Hamilton etc............ Front Runner Track Suitability. Below is a pecking order of track suitabilty to front runners. The order is based on four years research of actual, not projected, running habits in handicap races.
Ripon Chester Hamilton Haydock Chepstow Folkstone Beverley Kempton Yarmouth Newmarket Rowley Salisbury Thirsk Nottingham Catterick York Pontefract Windsor Musselborough Wolverhampton AW Southwell AW Leicester Doncaster Warwick Carlisle Epsom Redcar Ayr Lingfield Newmarket July Ascot Goodwood Bath Brighton Newcastle Newbury Sandown Lingfield AW -
Re: Sedgefield 19/02/08 Meeting abandonned...........
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Re: Trotters Grade Race Selections. The weekend decs are out.........we have 3 Grade 2 races and another big Grade 3 Handicap chase. Kempton - Saturday - Grade 2 'Dovecote' Novice Hurdle, 2 miles. Kempton - Saturday - Grade 2 'Pendil' Novices Chase, 2.5 miles Fontwell - Sunday - Grade 2 'Northern Spirit' Hurdle, 2.5 miles I'll have a look at the entries in more detail later and see how they're shaping up. Plus the grade 3 Racing Post Chase at Kempton on Saturday.
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Re: Breeding and conformation From the punting point of view and thinking of the jumpers I wouldn't mind if they did away with all that 'bay gelding', 'grey mare' malarky........I mean, who cares what colour they are ? Instead they should put 'big gelding', 'small mare'.........that's what we wanna know !!
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Re: Carlisle - Monday 18th Feb Well, first off........the prospects are not great for the meeting going ahead 8.00 Inspection, Clerk of the course reckons the chances are ;not favourable'......... But let's look on the bright side..........:nana The two races I've looked at are the 2.05 and the 3.10 2.05 Classic Fiddle..........has lumps in hand and should win but will be well odds-on 3.10 No Picnic (EW) 8/1 in the RP forecast, 16/1 outsider of the field in the Life. He's a one paced plodder, so 3 and a half miles with an uphill finish should be right up his street carrying just 10 stone. In his 4 outings this season he's been beaten 4L, 5L, hd, 20L........earnings write ups along the lines of 'stayed on', kept on'. His 20L defeat was in a lower class race carrying over 11 stone..........back to slightly higher class with a lower weight I reckon he should 'stay on' and that should be enough to get him placed. ( It's an 8 runner field )
Taunton 28/02
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Taunton 28/02 Taunton 2.30 - Temper Lad 0.5 points EW pretty dire race, a class 5 16 runner selling handicap hurdle* The selection has won 2 races in the last year or so, both of them class 5 selling handicap hurdles with 13 and 17 runners. He seems to be at his best at 16F on heavy ground up to 20F on good ground so todays trip/ground should be ideal. Both his recent wins have been on right-hand tracks from around the top of the handicap - joint top weight today and a claimer taking 5lb off.........both his recent wins have been with a claimer up. Last 2 runs have been in class 3 and class 4.........now back to his level and a good each way chance * As usual with 16 runner handicaps, the bookies have persuaded one to pull out ........so we're only on for 3 places.............I expect this means my selection will finish 4th, but I'll stick with it.