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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    ^^^^

    yes, I was thinking you'd want a different going allowance for for chase and hurdle tracks ....... and if you have 3 chases and 3 hurdles races on a card it's very small sample sizes and two of them might be novice races

    I only tend to use handicaps for my going allowances because you have more of an idea of the relative class of the runners

     

    BETTING EXCHANGES v TRADITIONAL BOOKMAKERS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Must admit that I've never used Betfair or any other exchange

    My concern is that instead of studying form and assessing and watching races I'd spend all my time hovering over the various buttons on the Betfair site waiting for something to move by a tenth of 1% before taking the plunge

    This is also why I only have accounts with two bookies ...........I don't want to spend my time flicking from site to site worried about missing out on a fractionally bigger price ........ although that might be less of a problem now with the odds comparison sites

    I guess this depends on what your motivation is ........ mine is to form an opinion and be proved right (a bit like completing a difficult crossword puzzle) and the odds are relatively unimportant. Obviously if you're in it to make money then you have to have all the options for getting the best price.

     

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I wonder if maybe there is an edge in speed ratings over Jumps in that I expect not many people do it or take much notice of the speed ratings in the Racing Post

    Because it doesn't look as relevant over much longer distances where the pace is often very slow or variable from race to race

    If you could come up with figures which compare performances on different tracks and aren't rendered meaningless by the pace of bulk of the distance run being the main determinant of the final time ......... well, you could be sitting on a goldmine that very few other people have

    Of course it doesn't take much imagination to start thinking of lots of difficulties. For a start you might only have 3 chases on a card ....... very small sample for producing a reasonable going allowance ! 

     

     

    Racing chat-Thursday 19th Sept

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Trotter said:

    One to watch .........

    Galveston, a two million guinea Frankel colt makes his debut for AoB in the 5,40, a 2yo 7f maiden race, at Naas

    Over 2 million quid for a racehorse ........ sounds like a hell of a gamble. There's a long list of million quid + horses who flop on the track

     

    Mmm ........ went off 4/6 Fav and finished last ............

     

    Racing chat-Thursday 19th Sept

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    One to watch .........

    Galveston, a two million guinea Frankel colt makes his debut for AoB in the 5,40, a 2yo 7f maiden race, at Naas

    Over 2 million quid for a racehorse ........ sounds like a hell of a gamble. There's a long list of million quid + horses who flop on the track

    Snaafi Dancer anyone ?

    Snaafi Dancer was the first horse to go for over 10 million dollars at auction 40 years ago (over 30 million in current values)

    He never raced. It was reported that he was so slow in training that it would have been embarrassing to run him in public. He was retired to stud duty where he was discovered to have fertility problems. From two years of breeding, he sired only four foals, three of which raced with very limited success. 

    Just think how many lottery tickets you could have bought with that 10 million dollars !

     

    Racing chat-tuesday 17th sept

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    The way I think of this @richard-westwood is that the higher class horses are running faster from the start of the race and your 'up in class Donny winner' is using up his energy keeping up with them before the race kicks in with a couple of furlongs to go

    When the others speed up, he can't. And having used up his energy in the first two-thirds of the race his final overall time will be worse as he loses a lot of speed compared to the speed he can still muster having ambled along at class 5 speed in his last race

    Even if the first two-thirds of the class 2 race are run at a slow pace it's still quicker than the slow pace that the first two-thirds of the class 5 are run at

    I have a fairly precise definition of class in handicap races. I assign race class by what a horse carrying 9 stone would be rated. So if your horse is rated 76 and is set to carry 8-10 then you add 4 lbs to his rating and this is a class 80 race. You can very quickly look at his recent races and assign a class figure to them and see how he has performed in different 'class'. A few pounds here and there doesn't bother me but I'm wary of horses running in a 10lb or more better race even if they won last time (unless there's evidence that they are improving types over a period of time)

     

     

    Strategies for PL Racing Comps

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Although I've not posted every day I haven't had a single winner in the Naps comp for around 7 weeks during August and September to date ....... this comes after winning the 'Most Winners' category in July .......... I don't know what's gone wrong !

    I have been trying to pick a few bigger priced ones but they all get beat

    It's a tad dispiriting

    I suppose I could look for some huge odds on shots just to 'get back on the horse'

    How would you cope with a long losing run, either in the comps or with bets ?

    I tend to take a few days off and hope to come back refreshed but that's not much use for the comps where you've got to be in it to win it !

     

    Racing chat-tuesday 17th sept

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Looks like ITV will not be showing the Breeders Cup this year .......... citing 'prior broadcasting contracts'

    'An ITV spokesperson said that the timings for this year’s meeting clash with existing contracted programming across ITV’s channels, leading to the Breeders’ Cup not being able to be shown'

    Most of the ITV channels just show repeats, I wonder what on earth they're contracted to broadcast over their half dozen channels

    Cash Out Discussion Thread - Punter's Pal or Bookies' Benefit?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I mainly bet on football these days and do sometimes cash out 

    I think one problem now is that you never know if you're going to be facing 10 minutes extra time with all the VAR hold ups and extra time being added for 'time wasting' at throw ins etc .......... if my team is one goal up in the 89th minute it's pretty tempting !

    What I'd normally do is have a figure in my mind at which I'm willing to cash out and just wait to see if it gets matched

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