Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Curragh - 30/3/08 That group 3 race..........the first 'group race' of the season in Britain and Ireland ? Woo hoo........the season is kicking off !!...........:nana
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Re: The Effect of the Draw? Hi Russ....... I often think that the 'effects of the draw' is so widely bandied about in the racing press and on TV that the supposed 'well drawn' horses are no value at all because the advantage is far outweighed by the shorter price because everyone and his dog is backing them because they are 'well drawn' In other words.........they go off at false prices Maybe you'd be better off looking for a horse with a real chance that's 'badly drawn' ? There are so many other variables.........pace, luck in running, etc that I tend to think in most cases a badly drawn good 'un will still beat a well drawn bad 'un.......... It's just one more variable to take into account.........but I reckon it does distort the odds
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Re: Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A Hi gary.........:) Just take the first race....... Time/F is the time per furlong, so in that first race it's the total time divided by 17 furlongs. Comparison is the time of the race compared to a 'standard time' for the course and distance Comp per F if the comparison per furlong..........so in this race it was run at 1.74 seconds per furlong above ( or slower than ) the 'standard time' Allowance........having seen all the races and got all the race times the 'speed buffs' then try and work out the effect of the going on race times by comparing todays times against a set of 'standard times' for the course based on races of a standard class of races on good going. The allowance is an attempt to determine how much the going is responsible for slowing the horses down in todays conditions In this case the speed buffs reckon that the ground was responsible for slowing all horses by 1.53 seconds per furlong. So.......if, for example, a horse had run at 1.53 seconds per furlongs slower than 'standard time'.........the going allowance would be taken off and he would be credited with having run the standard time for the purposes of working out his speed rating.
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Re: New I prefer the Sporting Life site to the Post.......the layout seems a lot cleaner and uncluttered. BUT.......in my experience the 'forecast odds' on the Life site are rubbish, the Post is much more reliable AND........I'm afraid the Life do make mistakes on the racecard information and seem very slow to correct them. As an example......for weeks before Cheltenham they showed the entries for the Queen Mother Champion Chase but described it as being over 2 mile 5 furlongs........and they showed the 'official rating' of Voy Por Ustedes as 130....... I've just been looking at the upcoming 2YO races over the next few days and see that at Lingfield on Monday, 3.10, there is a 2YO, Grand Plan, with form figures from ages ago and the Life tells us that it hasn't run for 2894 days.........about 7 years !!........... OK, things like that are obviously errors, but at least they are 'obvious'........I sometimes wonder what non-obvious mistakes there might be which affect your form study.........
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Re: New Well.........the first places to head for are the Racing Post and Sporting Life websites for cards, form, horses past runs, jockeys, trainers etc. My tip........if you're starting more or less from scratch, I'd stick to one 'type' of race to begin with.........say 5 and 6 furlong sprint handicaps, there'll be 2 or 3 a day during the summer, plenty to keep you going without trying to look at every race....... Or pick something else........but don't try to look at every race each day..........there's far too many of them..........especially during the summer. I think one good thing to do, and I expect even a few of us old hands could benefit from this.......is a bit of de-briefing........once the race is over don't consign it to history. Study the previous form of the winner leading up to this race and look for any clues in it's form which, in hindsight you think.........d'oh !.......I should have noticed that. Maybe next time you will notice those clues........
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Re: Best bet of the day 28/03 We've come to the time of month when us down the bottom of the table need a few big priced ones...........:nana 2.40.....Notabotheronme........0.5 points EW I keep looking at Hobb's 'second string', Notabotheronme, at 25/1........as an each way flutter.........:hope He's described as a big chasing type who's been running in hurdles, getting outpaced, then staying on again. The shape of today's race, 16 runners, few front runners, rain softened ground, stiff fences, long run-in..........I think the race might suit something coming late from way back........ OK, it's a long shot, but I need some points/pounds in the competition, no point going down thinking 'if only'..........:ok
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Re: Newbury 28/03 2.40 I keep looking at Hobb's 'second string', Notabotheronme, at 25/1........as an each way flutter.........:hope He's described as a big chasing type who's been running in hurdles, getting outpaced, then staying on again. The shape of today's race, 16 runners, few front runners, rain softened ground ( it's chucking down in london, so it probably has been in newbury ), stiff fences, long run-in..........I think the race might suit something coming late from way back........ I just wish i knew how the horse has got a handicap mark for chasing when it appears to have never run in a chase in it's life..........that's puzzling me..............:$
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Re: Simple Massey System for the patient Hi Rooster....... I'm just wondering if you know what the difference is between Massey's old and new ratings..........I've looked at them both......... Are they done on different form ratings ? Are the 'old' ones more reliable in some way than the new ones ? Just wondering why you prefer the old ones.........:)
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Re: Best Bet of the day - 26th March Yeah.........there's always the glorious uncertainty which we tend not to take into account..........some days they might just not feel like it, got a bit of a headache or a tummy ache..........feeling a bit lazy, didn't sleep well last night.........a million and one reasons why they don't give their running........ Just like me and you going to work.........you can't be 'up for it' every day..... :unsure
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Re: Best Bet of the day - 27th March 3.45 Ayr - Quicuyo - 1 point to win 2 mile class 4 novice hurdle at Ayr on heavy ground.......... The selection won the last one here by 23 lengths and only has to do the same thing again to win this one. Carries 5 lbs more for that last win but he won by 23 lengths..........Moonhawk finished 3rd that day and is stones better off, but she was about 30 L back......... That day he made all and galloped his rivals into the ground, and there doesn't seem to be any reason why he can't do the same thing again.........there are a couple of other front runners in todays race, but they look poor and I reckon he will get away on his own.......... RP forecast says 7/2..........I'd be happy with that !
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Re: Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A
I think the reason it's called the penalty is that for future races the race conditions might say something like........ Penalties.......for winner of a race worth £ 3000 - 3lbs, for winner of a race worth £ 5000 - 7 lbs, for winner of a race worth £ 10,000 - 10 lbs. This race is worth £ 2928..........to the winner.........so you could enter that future race without a penalty 'cos it's under the £ 3000 If the amount had been £ 3001 to the winner, you would get a 3 lb penalty in that future race. That's why they call it 'the penalty value' of the race..........it relates to future entries.Thanks Stewartd14, God, why the f**k would the industry call it a Penalty? Probably done by the same people that write Hants when they want to shorten Hampshire! Thanks again, Garry -
Re: Best Bet of the Day 25/03/08 Pontefract 3.45 - Sweetheart - 1 point to win A young horse in a staying handicap where most of the runners have plenty of career runs and should be fully exposed to the handicapper. The selection appears to have improved over the winter with 3 runs over hurdles, winning 2 and finishing 4th in the Grade 1 Tolworth. She hasn't been allocated a hurdles handicap mark yet, but my estimate is that it would be around 130..........if you relate this to 90 on the flat, she's only racing off 68 here, which reflects her 3YO form...........I'm banking on her improvement from 3 to 4 making a mockery of her flat handicap mark. Acts on good to soft, will get the trip...........
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Re: Racingpost simple question
The 305 means 305 days since it ran 'under rules', that means in a proper race at a racetrack under National Hunt Rules Point-to-Points ..........think of these as amateur race meetings put on by country folk to run their own horses against each other. A lot of national hunt bred horses start off in point-to-point racing. I guess the name comes from the idea of racing from Point A to Point B on a map.........race from the barn on the lane to the bridge over the river .......that kind of thing. Often these horses are just called 'Pointers' A lot of these horses might be kept by the owner for fox hunting......often referred to as 'Hunters'.........and you'll see that the race at Towcester is a 'Hunter Chase'.........the racetracks often put on a race just for these 'Hunters' and 'Pointers'. There is a recognised 'season' of two or three months from February when the racetracks put on these races. A lot of very good horses start off as young horses in point-to-points ( Denman for one ! ) before graduating to 'real' racingEnglish isnt my native language , so what 'point to point' means? Its an expresion i dont understand. What about the others? - 305 ......? Thanks -
Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 I didn't follow the flat last year so the only names on the card that I recognise are those that have been hurdling...........and this one looks a decent EW bet....... Donc 5.10 First Buddy EW ( 10/1 in RP forecast ) Won it's maiden first time out last season, then ran in class 2 and 3 races without showing much.........tended to tear off in front, tire and get caught. Has had 2 runs in juvenile hurdles this winter. Finished 2nd first time out, then won convincingly at Bangor in a fast time about 3 weeks ago. The horse that it slammed by 16 lengths into second has itself come out and won since, so the performance looks solid. In both it's hurdle races it's been held up just behind the front runners, so it looks like they've taught it to settle, which should improve it's flat racing efforts no end. Drawn 20 of 20 runners.........not sure if this is good or bad, but it's on the round course, so hopefully it can get in behind the leaders on the bend.
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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) I'll be following with interest !! :clap
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Re: Best Bet of the Day - Thur 20th Mar Ludlow 3.00 pm - Desert Quest - 1 point to win Looks like a two horse race with Psychomodo and Desert Quest rated 40 plus pounds ahead of their rivals on official ratings. Psychomodo is odds-on based on his last run against Noland where he fell when in contention..........trouble is, that's twice he's fallen in his last 3 runs, he's an iffy jumper ! What's more........he's a stayer, his win came over Ascot's 19 furlongs and both his recent falls have been when he's run over 16 furlongs. The pace of 16 furlong racing obviously forces him into errors. It would help the cause if some of the no-hopers went off at a fair lick. Desert Quest is a proper 16 furlong horse, he wins right-handed, he wins on good ground, he's won in class 3 ( and class 2) - he ran a stonker last time after a break to finish close up to Modicum. I can only envisage 'Psycho' making mistakes if he tries to keep up with Desert Quest. Current odds........Psychomodo 4/5, Desert Quest 2/1 Two horse race........
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Re: The Lincoln~Sat 22nd March Breaking news..........:lol The field is limited to 22 runners.........and the top 22 in the handicap have stood their ground The 2 two ante-post favourites are out........(Zaahid and Lang Shining)
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Re: The Lincoln~Sat 22nd March
I was going to answer you last night, bigs, but i wasn't sure what it was that you dind't understand........ The lincoln is what they call an 'early closing' race, which means that enries have to be made months in advance and typically there will be several hundred horses entered. As time goes on there are 'forfeit stages' at which an owner has to pay an additional entry fee to keep his horse in the race......... The last forfeit stage was a few days ago and a hundred or so were left in Tomorrow, thursday, is the final forfeit stage.........some owners will withdraw their horses..........might still leave, say, 60 in....... Then they will drop the horses from the bottom of the handicaps upwards until they reach the maximimum number allowed to run, abouit 30Can anyone explain me why does this event has 100 runners? is it a special event? Enlighten me :) -
Re: When is the draw made for the Lincoln
I'm casting around for something to concentrate on during the Flat........there's just too much racing to take it all in......... I've thought about sticking to 'Group' races, but the thought of having to study all those French and irish races as well puts me off....... My other thought is to stick to 2YO races, but there's a lot of 'unknown' runners, first time outers, who muddy the waters...... In the past I spent a whole season just on five furlong races,,,,,,,,that was quite good, 'cos you could use speed figures and get to know all the nuances of each track, the draw, the going etc..........felt like you had an edge I'm tempted by your big handicaps...........nothing more satisfying than backing a 16/1 winner in a 20 runner handicap..........:nanaCannot bloody wait for Saturday, I'm looking forward to it more than Cheltenham. I adore the flat season and those big field handicaps, I just hope I can make a bit of profit. -
Re: ATR Review - March
Thanks.........:ok I've just lost my 'novice' tag as well..........:clapTaunton Trotter occupied all the action here. He backed Cusp, who lost but layed successfully La Dame Brune. He's been a very good aditon to ATR :ok -
Re: When is the draw made for the Lincoln Yep, the draw is on Thursday and it's 'live' on the ATR 11 AM show........... Talking of the Lincoln.........I've been away from the sport for a few years and I'm wondering if it's the case these days that you have to look for something that's fit from the all-weather ? In the olden days it was a bit of a lottery 'cos none of them had run for 4 or 5 months, or they'd been hurdling........... Also..........what happened to day one and day two of the meeting ?...........it used to be a good dtart to the season, the Brocklesby on the Thursday, the Cammidge on the Friday and the Lincoln on the saturday.............:nana
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Re: Best Bet of the Day - Monday 17th Mar
Woo hoo..........got her beat by 26 lengths........... It's OK this laying malarky, think I'll do it again..........it's a lot easier to pick a loser than it is to pick a winner !! :nanaGonna have my first go at 'laying' today.......and the Lay is....... 2.50 Taunton - La Dame Brune - 7/4 Fav in RP Forecast -
Re: Taunton 17/03 4.20 Taunton - Cusp to win Strange looking race.........a five runner handicap where 3 of them are joint top weights on 11-12. 3 miles, heavy ground, uphill finish.........can't fancy the topweight in a handicap so that rules 3 of them out. The other horse is on 11-5, has pulled up in it's last 2 races, trainer is in a permanent bad patch with 2 wins from 130 runs this season. So Cusp is the only one carrying under 11 stone, which is a handy cut-off point for races which can be desribed as a slog Her trainer is in terrific form, 4 winners, 3 placed from 14 runs in the last 2 weeks All Cusp's 3 wins have come on ground with 'heavy' in the going description. She's won at Market rasen, a similar RH sharpish track to Taunton. She's won at Hexham, a track with an uphill finish, like Taunton. Two of her previous wins have come in March, the other in february, so this is her time of year. Well beaten last time out, but had valid excuses, hampered at the first, clipped heels around halfway, came to lead then faded in the last couple of furlongs..........back 3 furlongs in trip today should be ideal.
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Re: Taunton 17/03 Lay......... 2.50 Taunton - La Dame Brune - 7/4 Fav in RP Forecast Few reasons...... Race qualifies as a 'slog', just under 3 miles, heavy ground, uphill finish. In these conditions I discount 6 year olds as a matter of course, plus she's a mare, the 'weaker' sex !............;) French bred......:loon ( OK, this may be a phallacy, but I don't like backing french breds in 'slogs' ) LTO at Ludlow she jumped to the left........RP noted that she' might be better on a left hand track Her jumping has been a bit 'iffy' in her 2 chases to date, both over shorter distances, I think it's quite likely she'll fall near the end today when she gets tired. Both her wins have been in big fields, 16 runner affairs, suggests she needs covering up, small field today won't suit her
Best Bet of the Day - Mon 31/3/08
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Best Bet of the Day - Mon 31/3/08 Lingfield 3.10 - Grand Plan - 1 point to win. 6 runner 2YO race where the 3 that have already had an outing were all in the same race at Warwick The one that finished 2nd that day, Percolator, will probably go off as odds on favourite with that '2' against her name and a big name trainer. But I reckon she's worth taking on........she was favourite at warwick which suggests she was ready, but faded to get beaten over 4 lengths. Maybe that's her chance of a win gone and that's as good as she is..........if she was fit and ready for that race, there's no reason to think she'll improve. The top weight in this median auction contest is Grand Plan, who cost about 10 times more than Percolator and is related to sprint dirt winners in America. Under the race terms she only gives Percolator 3 lbs. Her trainer, J Osborne, gets a triple tick for First Time Out Runners in the Postdata. RP forecast 4/1..........