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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    The Whip Debate

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Whip Debate I'd treat a whip ban with equanimity.......... I don't think it would affect racing........different horses might win, but there'll still be a winner of every race and your form study will be consistant, ie, you'll be studying the form of horses who haven't run under the whip.........none of them. It'll still be a level playing field. I can see the argument for retaining a whip for safety purposes but it should be within the competence of Stewards to assess wether a whip was used for safety reasons or for 'encouagement'........and if the jockey is guilty of the latter, the horse is disqualified. We'll still have our Derby winners and our short head winners of 20 runner handicaps..........you'll still look at the form book and say 'aaah A beat B by 3 lengths getting 6 lbs, but A only beat c by 2 lengths giving 4 lbs'.........if none of the horses are whipped, the form is still just as reliable as when they were all whipped. As long as it's a level playing field. I'm not overly sensitive by nature and would be happy for things to stay as they are now, but I don't think a whip ban would be to the detriment of the sport.

    Best Bet Of The Day ~ Sunday 25th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Sunday 25th 3.35 Curragh - Eva's Request - EW Beat several of these in a G3 at Leopardstown end of last season, including Kitty Matcham about 9 lengths back If Kitty is O'Briens number one, that gives the selection the beating of that lot............. She ran disappointingly on her re-appearance, beaten by Carribean Sunset, whom she had in turn beaten last year............but at the time Channon's horses were running like their back legs were tied togther......... Expect a much improved performance today Of course, it might just be that she's there as a pacemaker for Nahoodh.........but even so, pacemakers do win sometimes and I assume the tactics would be to get to the front and slow it down what with Nahoodh's suspect stamina............paradoxically that might play into the hands of Eva's Request as well........particularly if there are several 'pacemakers' and they end up running fast anyway.........

    Race Conditions - Temple Stakes

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Does anyone know if any web site shows the full race conditions for Group races ? Looking at the Temple Stakes tomorrow and see Desert Lord on 9-4. Well.......usually in group 2 races there's a penalty for group one winners, which Desert Lord is ( Abbaye).........but then the top 9 on the racecard all have 9-4 So.......are they all group one winners ( pretty unlikely !) or is there no penalty. It'd be nice to have that information there on the racecard.........to see 'at a glance' which horses are suited by the conditions.

    Ayr 21/05/08

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Ayr 21/05/08 3.45 Tabaret to win I've stuck up Deserted Dane as a Lay in the BBotD The one I fancy to win is Tabaret. He's never won a handicap after starting off way too high by virute of a Listed win at 2 and running in Group races at 3 and 4 He's been dropping down and now at 88 seems fairly handicapped. Although he was 6th last time, he was only beaten just over a length and that was in a class 2 at York last week. A repeat of that should see him win today in what looks like a weaker heat.

    Best Bet Of The day - Wed 21st May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet Of The day - Wed 21st May It;s become apparent over the last couple of weeks that I'm really good at finding losers..........so I'm having a go at laying today Ayr - 3.45 - Deserted Dane - RPF 7/2 Fav.- LAY Looks well handicapped on his best form, running off 79 today and having won off 80 last season. However he has been well beaten in 6 or 7 handicaps since then, including off todays mark. Beaten nearly 6 lengths off this mark last time out His wins have been at stiff tracks, Beverley and Carlisle. His last 5 runs have been at 'easy' tracks like today and he's been beaten by an average of 5 lengths, that's about 20 lbs by my reckoning. If he was rated 59 he might have a chance...............:spank

    Best Bet of the Day Tues 20th May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet of the Day Tues 20th May Southwell 4.30 - Luscivious to win. CD winner in class 3 last time, drops to class 4, gets a good draw and is up against rivals with question marks against them. The selection has a 6 lb penalty for that last win which means he'll need a career best to win this, but he's relatively lightly raced and improving. Of his 7 rivals, four have the dreaded X for trainerform in the Post, four of them are badly drawn, 3 of them are out of the handicap, 5 of them would also need career bests to win Latest odds I saw were 5/2 Favourite for the selection, which he should be favourite, but I think 5/2 looks generous.

    Windsor 19/05/08

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Windsor 19/05/08 I like Blue Jack in the 8.40........he's race fit, in form, won last time out, only gone up 3lb for the win, track should suit Question marks about the ones ahead of him in the betting. Looks an each way steal at 7/1, currently 4th favourite.

    Best Bet of the Day - Monday 19th May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet of the Day - Monday 19th May Windsor 8.40 - Blue Jack - 1 point to win 5F handicap for 3Y0Blue Jack has aleady won a handicap and only gone up 3lbs for it. He's fit, in form and a winner last time out. I have Windsor as a 'slow' 5F even tho' the pundits keep saying it's 'sharp'.........the dog leg slows them down. Blue Jack has won a class 4 handicap over a 'slow 5' at Beverley. He's currently 4th favourite. The ones ahead of him in the market are .....Regal Steps, top weight, first run of the season. I reckon he's too high in the handicap after running in pattern races at 2. This seems to be a general trend for handicappers. Good Gorsoon comes out of that race that Corrybrough won, some have run well since, others haven't, Already in his short career he's developed a habit of getting boxed in, not getting clear runs, finishing like a train when it's all to late. I reckon he needs at least 6 furlongs, probably 7 so he can go the pace and not get boxed in. Monsieur Reynard. Can't see why this one is 3rd Fav, still a maiden after 7 runs, his best 2 efforts have been on soft ground, and he's running off much the same mark as he's been getting beaten off. Maybe he's been laid out for a coup ? Anyway, I'm sticking with the one who looks sure to give his running........Blue Jack.Come on my son, I haven't had a winner yet this month in the competition.........

    Is there too much racing??

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Is there too much racing?? I'm currently following 2 things........ Group One races in the UK, Ireland & France. There's not many of these , 2 or 3 a week on average through the season, doesn't take much time to compile basic notes on the runners and results. It goes without saying that these include all the races that you'll remember in 5 years time, the 'great' horses, the champions, the ones that will go down in history. This is for love of the sport, it's irrelevant whether I bet on these races or not, I study them to enhance my enjoyment. Sprint handicaps........I started with 'Sprint handicaps', realised there were just too many so limited it to Class 2 and 3, still thought there were too many so have now limited it to 5 furlong handicaps.........there were now too few so have expanded it to 5 Furlong handicaps classes 2, 3 and 4. This seems to turn up about 1 race a day on average, which is perfect for my time rationing. Obviously the aim here is to thoroughly get to know a subset of the horse population in depth for betting purposes, in the hope that my in depth knowledge will give me an edge.

    definition of a pro tipster?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: definition of a pro tipster? I'd say one of the following - - someone who sells tips ( phone tipsters, subscription website tipsters) - someone who is paid a salary to provide tips ( eg on a newspaper) The tips don't have to be any good..........it's whether people pay for them that counts.

    Is there too much racing??

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Is there too much racing?? Good issue for a debate ! No, I don't think there's too much racing. It's like asking if there's too much 'Theatre' or 'Cinema'........there's as much as people will watch. There are an awful lot of jobs at stake and people's livelihoods bound up with racing, why consider artificially limiting the amount below what 'the market' can sustain ? OK........a lot of racing is very poor quality, but then, 90% of racehorses are poor quality and the racing is there for them and for their owners and trainers and for the 30-40 racecourses that depend on staging poor quality meetings for all these poor quality horses. I don't think it should be a matter of concern that there is far too much racing for an average punter to stay on top of all the form.........it's up to the punter to specialise in something or restrict his interest to a certain proportion of the total racing.

    Are Channel 4 always this bad?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Are Channel 4 always this bad? I never watch C4 or BBC now that I've got the racing channels......... Agree that ATR is a joke..........if I watch it, I just turn it on for the race I want to watch, not a minute longer. I like RUK when they only cover one meeting and do it properly, giving us paddock views and analysing the races in depth.......... But I did notice today that RUK showed the Lockinge in a split screen with a novice chase from Bangor..........I mean, what the hell ! With the racing channels, less is definitely more..........

    YORK 16th may

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: YORK 16th may 3.45 5F handicap for 3YO only.........my first look at the 3YO There's quite a bit of 'unknown quantity' around the race with a few lightly raced types. I'm taking a view that the ones up the top are probably over-rated by virtue of running in Listed & conditions races at 2. So my short list is....... Marvellous Value - 2 runs, 2 wins, hosed up by 4L on handicap debut and stuck up 12 lbs for that. Could be a 'blot' as they say, could be anything. Currently around the 4/1 mark, if the money piles on he might be a good thing. Hamish McGonagall - fairly experienced with 7 runs, narrowly beaten on handicap debut. Track, going etc look ideal, but he was put up 3 lbs for finishing second, I don't like that ! Currently around 6/1 and looks good for the frame. Know No Fear - 5 runs, won or placed 4 times. Won a nursery off 69, running off 74 now, which seems fair enough. Think he's probably fairly handicapped in a race where most of them are too high. Trainer in decent form and does get first time out winners. Currently around 14/1, good EW chance. 2 to back........ Marvellous Value to win Know No Fear EW

    York - Thursday 15th May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: York - Thursday 15th May 1.40 Cheers billy.......a good read. That's the race I've been studying for the last 2 days........:cry I've got my short list of 4......agree with you on Aegean Dancer and Fantasy Explorer..........my other two are Bond City, which you give a decent write up to. ........and River Falcon. He looks well in on his 5 furlong form and appears to have been running over 6 to get his mark back down. Ran well over 5 last time, about 4 lbs ( 1 length) below his mark today. Don't you think Fyodor looks like a horse that a lot better on AW ? Bertoliver........I have a view on him...........his wins/best runs are over 'slow' 5F, Chester, Sandown, Windsor......uphill, round bends, dog-legs......tracks where the 5F time is slow. Not sure a fast 5F like York will suit him........ I'd go for River Falcon and Fantasy Explorer EW.

    Ascot 10/05/08

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Ascot 10/05/08

    Thing is, there is no logic when it comes to FTO, not really. Educated guess, yes. Every horse is different. Some go well fresh but that is a guide only, as are looks and stable form. There is no guarantee of being 100% certain that a horse is fully fit. Personaly I just hope that if I see something in a horse for a certain race, then perhaps the trainer has to, and maybe the horse will be spot on for said race. I think the fitness issues come into play more in the lower grades. Most are spot on for the bigge prize money handicaps, which stands to reason. That why they are a far better betting proposition.
    I have a thought on the matter bouncing around in my head.........:lol ........the 'pundits' always say 'should come on for the run' 'might just need this' and other clichés........but when you think about it, a sprint race is a minute or 70 seconds of running. When a horse is being professionally trained seven days a week is a minute's running really going to make any difference ? They must run flat out for a minute every day at home..............;)

    Ascot 10/05/08

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Ascot 10/05/08

    Thats unlucky mate. You had the winner in your shortlist so the signs are there. Some of these races can be so tricky to predict, so losing runs are normal. Dont get downhearted over it, and keep the faith. :ok
    Cheers !..........and i have learned something from todays disappointing result.........the first 3 home were all on seasonal debut, and I tend to downgrade their chances if they haven't had a run yet.......... Perhaps I'll have to rethink that one.......I'm not sure how logical it is, but that might be a debate for a new thread !
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