Jump to content
Download the PL Forum App!
New Bookie Offer - Highbet - Bet £10 GET £25 (no wagering on winnings)

Trotter

New Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    14,663

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    37

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Trotter

    Captain Rio

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Captain Rio I don't usually bother much with 'breeding'.........:loon However, jusy thought I'd have a look at Captain Rio........ He's by Pivotal, which I think means his progeny are liable to like a bitof cut in the ground, which might account for recent successes with all the rain...........:unsure I seem to remember early in the season the 'Pivotals' had a bit of a golden patch winning several big races.........maybe they're spring and autumn types when we get softish ground...... Stats......... Captain Rio 2007 season........47 runners (2 year olds) who ran 133 times between them and won 12 races ( interesting those 12 wins were by 12 different horses, so they all won one each) 2008 season up to August 1st..........35 two year old runners, have run 98 times between and won 5 races ( again 5 different horses have won once each)

    Best Bet Of The Day ~ Thursday 7th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Thursday 7th Folkestone 6.40 - Oil Man - Win Pretty poor class 6 maiden race and this fellow boasts the best form of those that have run with a second last time out P Winkworth is a trainer worth following with two year olds.......they often turn up at big odds This one won't, he'll be favourite because the others look so rubbish Henry cecil has a debutante in the race and I'm rather hoping he gets well backed and the one with the form in the book, Oil Man, drifts out as a result Henry doesn't get many first time winners with his 2 year olds, mind you -he doesn't often run them in class 6 races either, so he must be a danger. But I'll back the one with the form in the book...........

    Saved for ATR readers!

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Saved for ATR readers! Well done bowles.......:nana As a relative newcomer I must say how much I enjoy your trends analysis (not forgetting jtw as well )........ It always puts the race into some kind of perspective which is really useful even if I don't agree with the selection or conclusions........it gives a framework which is invaluble......... Carry on the good work !!............:ok

    Best Bet of the Day - Wed 6th August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet of the Day - Wed 6th August 4.00 Brighton - Ivory Lace EW Like the look of this one Looking at it's record it's what I think of as a Goodwood-Lingfield(Turf)-Brighton horse........best suited to those undulating, bendy kind of tracks that don't suit every horse. Sure suits this one as it's win record shows. One thing about these courses is that they favour the higher weighted horses in handicaps. I think this is because, on the whole, the nature of the track means that the 'pack' run at a slower pace than they would on a flat track - this allows the better class horses within the handicap to use their speed at the business end of the race. Ivory Lace is topweight........rated 80, so it just gets in to this 0-80 contest after having to run in higher class races when it's mark was over 80 As I'd expect with a G-L(T)-B horse this one wins when it is at the top of the handicap - it's last 5 handicap wins have been when it is carrying 9-6 or more. Slight worry that it's never won at 8F........but it was running on well last time at Goodwood and I think it will get the trip OK 16 runners.........bet ya bottom dollar something will come out to deny us 4 places........those bookies will be frantically ringing around the trainers

    Brighton 6th August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Brighton 6th August 4.00 Ivory Lace Like the look of this one Looking at it's record it's what I think of as a Goodwood-Lingfield(Turf)-Brighton horse........best suited to those undulating, bendy kind of tracks that don't suit every horse. Sure suits this one as it's win record shows. One thing about these courses is that they favour the higher weighted horses in handicaps. I think this is because, on the whole, the nature of the track means that the 'pack' run at a slower pace than they would on a flat track - this allows the better class horses within the handicap to use their speed at the business end of the race. Ivory Lace is topweight........rated 80, so it just gets in to this 0-80 contest after having to run in higher class races when it's mark was over 80 As I'd expect with a G-L(T)-B horse this one wins when it is at the top of the handicap - it's last 5 handicap wins have been when it is carrying 9-6 or more. Slight worry that it's never won at 8F........but it was running on well last time at Goodwood and I think it will get the trip OK

    What a poor day

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: What a poor day I'm sure there were bets to be had..........if you think about it, pretty much every race is a betting medium I suppose when I started this thread I wasn't thinking of betting, more of having a free afternoon to watch racing and having such low quality fare shoved in front of me....... I'm just an elitist...........:lol Talking of 'a bet to be had'.........the 16/1 winner of the nursery at Chepstow was 'top-rated' on the B2YOR site.........:loon

    Best Bet of the Day - Tues 5th August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet of the Day - Tues 5th August Had a look at the Nursery at Chepstow...........no idea what's going to win, but I don't fancy the favourite, so I'm gonna have a go at Laying........ 3.15 Chepstow - Soul Sista - Lay RPF 9/4 Has been well beaten in a previous nursery off 73, then came out and won a poor looking 5 runner auction race by 7L, as a result of which has got shoved up to a mark of 80 That win was on g/s ground and it might be that she's a much better filly on soft ground in which case conditions today will suit. However in a poor nursery she ends up with 9-7 as topweight. That's a lot of weight for a filly against colts and the soft ground and uphill finish will make every pound count. Back in handicap company she looks over-rated

    If it were mine........

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Idea for a thread........... If a given horse was yours, what race would you aim it for ? If Nahoodh was mine, I'd go for the Champion Stakes at Newmarket. The horse's best two performances of the season have been at Newmarket. The way it ran on to win the Falmouth suggested it might be effective at 10 furlongs. Similarly the way it was full of running at the end of the Guineas, but with nowhere to go. The Champion stakes, being late in the season, is often run with a bit of cut in the ground, which suits her. A straight track suits her better than a bend It's usually a small field so she can be held up and not find trouble in getting through.......it's a very wide track anyway and they always seem to run down the centre, And finally........being close to the Arc weekend, it's usually not a top notch Group One...........Literato won it last year. If it were mine, Nahoodh would be going for the Champion Stakes. Where would you run your horse ?..............:lol

    Murtagh, Manning, Moore and Mackay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Murtagh, Manning, Moore and Mackay Am I alone is not even looking at the jockey ?..........it's not really a factor for me. I guess deep down I don't think there's that much between all the jockeys to make that much difference.........they can all ride good races and bad races, but it's not something you can know in advance, so there's not a lot of point in studying it. Some exceptions to this might be.......where O'brien goes in mob-handed, I might look at who's riding which, but I wouldn't assume that Murtagh is on the winner. I went for Frozen Fire in the Irish derby even tho' Murtagh was on one of the others. Ok, at the moment I'm mainly looking at group races, where you can expect that most of the jocks will be the top ones........if I was looking at low grade, conditionals, Ladies etc it might be different. But at the top level I reckon it's 70% horse, 5% jockey and 25% luck, run of the race, other imponderables, unknown factors, unknowable factors

    Best Bet Of The Day ~ Sunday 3rd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Sunday 3rd 2.15 Deauville - Nahoodh - Win Fascinating race with several top class fillies Nahoodh was with Mick Channon and having a disappointing season.......that run in the Guineas when she got boxed in, then disppointing in the Irish guineas. Got sold and transferred to M Johnston Tried new tactics at Ascot, making the running, which didn't work Finally got it right last time out in the Falmouth, held up and swept through to beat Infallible and Heaven Sent by 2/3 lengths. With those waiting tactics she'll always be best in small fields like today, on a straight track, ..........less chance of getting boxed in. She can handle a bit of cut in the ground and has Frankie up Of the others....... Darjina has got seconditis but obviously top class. ground against her ? Natagora - prob wants 10F now, Goldikova's pacemaker might make it difficult for her to set her own pace as she did in the Guineas. Sabana perdida - wants firm ground ? Goldikova - had to be dropped to group 3 to win a race but form with Zarkava makes her a live danger. Breseida - wants firm ground and well held on Falmouth form The other runners don't look group one class Come on you Nahoodh !!

    High Numbers

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: High Numbers Really interesting stuff ! I've never kept any records but I have used 'position in handicap' as a first filter for looking at long distance handicaps over fences. I like to think of it as the application of logic.........:unsure If you accept that 'the handicap'.......meaning the whole handicap of the thousands of rated horses reflects an average over all race conditions, then it does seem logical that any specific race might favour a particular position in the handicap. For example.......it would seem logical that a chase on an easy track on good going with a small field and just 3 miles would favour higher weighted horses Conversely a big field, soft going, stiff track, three and a half miles 'should' suit lower weighted ones. I can't see that those kind of variables are as 'extreme' in flat racing ( ie they shouldn't seperate out the horses to the same degree) tho' no doubt they exist and could be used as a logical base for a 'position in handicap' system If i ever get stuck into the 3 mile plus handicap chases again, I'll have to keep proper records.............:clap

    Best Bet OF The Day Sat 02/08

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet OF The Day Sat 02/08 3.15 Goodwood - Halfway to heaven - Win As they say, the best form is classic form and this filly has won one classic, the Irish 1000........and finished fairly close up in another, the french 1000 There are 3 other group one winners in the field, so it's pretty comptitive, but I'm worried about Lush Lashes handling the undulations, Passage of Time is on the comeback but not back to this level yet and Majestic Roi has been disppointing in both outings this season at G1 level. It's Aiden's girl for me.................:nana

    Best Bet of the Day ~ Friday 1 August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet of the Day ~ Friday 1 August

    Change of tactics this month, No EW bets
    I've been thinking of that as well...... My downfall is always in looking for those big price ones that might sneak into 3rd.........but really at fifth odds for half a stake , you're effectively taking tenth odds........even a 20/1 shot becomes a 2/1 shot........:loon You might as well look for a 3/1 favourite......... Mind, I've done it again today.........:unsure

    Best Bet of the Day ~ Friday 1 August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet of the Day ~ Friday 1 August Goodwood 4.05 - Dersert Icon - EW Looks a pretty open renewal of the 'Richmond' Of the fancied horses Prolific looks like an early season five furlong type, Gallagher has only won a Chepstow maiden, albeit quite impressively. Waffle has been off the track for over 3 months which is a long time for a two year old So I'm looking for some EW value and my fellow is available at 33/1 He's had 2 runs. First time in a decent looking Newmarket maiden where he finished fourth despite running a bit green. The winner has since finished a close up 5th in the 'Princess Margaret' and the 3rd has scooted up by 5L in a maiden Second run - spreadeagled a field in a maiden race at Windsor with 2L gaps to 2nd, to 3rd and to 4th On the book there doesn't seem to be much between what he has acheived and what Gallagher has achieved, yet the latter could well go off as favourite. Desert Icon is reported to be a nippy athletic type who should handle Goodwoods undulations.

×
×
  • Create New...