Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Still No News On New Approach I was ready to defend Bolger.........well, maybe not 'defend' but put up excuses for........basically as mentionned above, he gets on with his own job which is looking after his owners and horses interests without concern for punters. Unlike most trainers it seems that he doesn't have to bother courting popularity or a big media profile to attract owners to send their horses to him............most of his horses seem to be owned by his Mrs. Not sure exactly how this operation works but clearly he doen't 'have to' pander to At The Races and Thommo..........so he doesn't. I'd guess that he's supremely indifferent as to wether people back his horses or not......... However, I'm a bit concerned about something else re Mr Bolger......... Finsceal Beo ran today in the group one race in Ireland........on the formbook she should have been 'favourite'. What happens ?.........she starts drifting in the market yesterday from 6/4........by 'race time' she was no longer favourite and out to 5/2. In the race she finishes last behind all the no hopers beaten 27 lengths and after the race the Vet confirms that there's something wrong with her............ Was this known before the race ? It looks a bit 'iffy' to say the least.............even if you accept that Bolger doesn't have to give two hoots about punters, he should give two hoots about his horses. So, there is a suspicion that the horse was not right a day before the race and he still ran her.......... I await with interest any explanation in the racing press
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Re: Curragh 28/6/08 3.45 Curragh - Mad About You There appear to be 3 fillies in the race with genuine group one pretensions.........I'm taking the three year old in receipt of nearly a stone against the older ones. Finsceal Beo has the group one wins on the table having won 2 Guineas, but she's lost her last 5 group one races, albeit narrowly for the most part. Maybe a suggestion that she's plateaued (if there's such a word !) and has got into the habit of finding one too good. Not certain to get 10 furlongs if it's a decent pace and any ease in the ground would count against her. Worthy favourite with the wins in the book, but enough doubt to look for a better price alternative. Promising Lead is ........well, .........promising. Listed and group 3 winner. Beaten a head in group one company last season ( with finsceal beo behind her). Lightly raced and probably still improving. Mad About You is also lightly raced and has finished close up in top races, the Marcel Bouussac behind Zarkava and the Irish 1000 guineas a few weeks ago on her seasonal debut. Only beaten a head in a classic first time out..........well, she ain't going to have to come on much for the run to be right there competing for top races. Just one other tenuous point........both group one races for 3 year old plus so far this season have been won by three year olds........both sprints, so maybe not relevant, but you never know, might just point to this seasons 3YOs being an above average crop. So there we go........I keep kicking myself for picking the 'promising' over the 'provan', but I'm doing it again.............:nana ps...........Marjalina looks 'big' at 20/1 for an EW punt.......
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Re: BEST BET OF THE DAY ~ Sat 28 June. 3.45 Curragh - Mad About You - 1 point to win There appear to be 3 fillies in the race with genuine group one pretensions.........I'm taking the three year old in receipt of nearly a stone against the older ones. Finsceal Beo has the group one wins on the table having won 2 Guineas, but she's lost her last 5 group one races, albeit narrowly for the most part. Maybe a suggestion that she's plateaued (if there's such a word !) and has got into the habit of finding one too good. Not certain to get 10 furlongs if it's a decent pace and any ease in the ground would count against her. Worthy favourite with the wins in the book, but enough doubt to look for a better price alternative. Promising Lead is ........well, .........promising. Listed and group 3 winner. Beaten a head in group one company last season ( with finsceal beo behind her). Lightly raced and probably still improving. Mad About You is also lightly raced and has finished close up in top races, the Marcel Bouussac behind Zarkava and the Irish 1000 guineas a few weeks ago on her seasonal debut. Only beaten a head in a classic first time out..........well, she ain't going to have to come on much for the run to be right there competing for top races. Just one other tenuous point........both group one races for 3 year old plus so far this season have been won by three year olds........both sprints, so maybe not relevant, but you never know, might just point to this seasons 3YOs being an above average crop. So there we go........I keep kicking myself for picking the 'promising' over the 'provan', but I'm doing it again.............:nana ps...........Marjalina looks 'big' at 20/1 for an EW punt.......
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Re: Best bet of the day weds 25/06 Carlisle 5.10 Glasshoughton - win Been looking at this race on another thread purely from the point of view of 'pace in the race' and reckon Glasshoughton is ideally drawn to take advantage of the likely pace ..........to be held up 'wide' behind the front runners with a clear passage when they fade..........and with the runners on his outside likely to be behind at the business end. Add to that ideal conditions........five furlongs on a stiff track, good to soft ground and decent recent form and he should have a great chance. I know these sprint handicaps tend to come down to 'Buggins Turn' but hopefully it's his turn today...........
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Re: Finding out how horse runs
How do we read this ? (garlogs is a non-runner) I see two front runners drawn low and likely to trap the low drawn other runners behind them with potential for traffic problems. I'd be looking for something that races prominantly but from the middle.........that can come round the low drawn horses when the front runners begin to fade ( stiff track, good to soft going.........I expect the front runners to fade ) There doesn't seem to be the same pace in the high draws so I'd expect that side to be behind......... Looking at the middle drawn ones it looks perfectly set up for Glasshoughton........races prominently but not a front runner, can stay on the outside of the low drawn horses.........quick look at his record shows he wins at stiff tracks, beverley, Sandown and he acts on good to soft. East innit this racing game !..............:lolAs mentioned before, if you want a quick solution you can use the Pace cards at the Patternform website Here is the 5:10 http://www.patternform.co.uk/carlisle%20(gb)_2008-06-25_510_pace.htm -
Re: Soldier of Fortune vs Getaway! Whilst we're looking at the weekend's Group One action I see that Peeping Fawn won't be making her seasonal debut in the Pretty Polly as planned..........apparently she's not ready......... Shame that, was looking forward to seeng her again...........
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Re: Soldier of Fortune vs Getaway!
These 2 do battle again at Curragh this weekend. Do you think that the French horse can turn the tables on the Soldier' date=' or will the Soldier triumph yet again?[/quote'] It's in France..........the Grand Prix de St Cloud........:ok Should be a great race, as well as the 'big two' we have Saddex, Doctor Dino and Zambesi Sun due to run..............all solid Group One runners......and maybe more, the decs aren't up yet on the Post or Life sites.......... 'Mordin' has an interesting angle on Soldier Of Fortune, reckoning that he's best fresh and has lost every time he's run within 4 weeks of a previous run..........Sunday will be just over 3 weeks............of course, Mordin is often wrong !.............:lol And I'm waiting for Getaway to show that he's more than a 'Cesare'........looking great winning group 3 races but can't cut it at the top table............. I'll certainly be looking closely at this one when the runners are known........:ok -
Re: Form books Nowadays I just tend to use internet resources, basically the Post and Life sites....... Until recently I liked the Superform site........but as you probably all know it's folded in the last few weeks.........:( In the olden days when I used to buy books I subscribed to the weekly 'Superform' book.......you got sent a weeks results at a time to put in a loose-leaf binder........ I also bought the Raceform Annual but after a couple of months of the season you were looking at it less and less as this seasons results built up.......I also used to keep the pull-out Results Section from Raceform Update and about once every 5 or 6 weeks would buy a Timeform Black Book.......... Trouble with all of them was the same.........by the time they were published horses had run again and the form was getting out of date....... The internet has been a fantastic invention for us turfistes..........:clap
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Re: What gives you the most satisfaction? For me it is definitely solving the puzzle......... I'm almost ashamed to admit in present company, but I don't actually bet..........:unsure Well.........almost never.........my last bet was at the Aintree Grand National meeting...........and the one before that was at Cheltenham........
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Re: Pace in the Race Unless you want to trawl through all the form, the most accessible is on the 'Patternform' site....... For those who haven't used it before they average out the horses last 10 runs to produce a pace rating which they show against the horses in draw order....... ( a minus 9 is front runner and a plus 9 is a hold up horse) for example here's the 3.15 at Beverley tomorrow http://www.patternform.co.uk/beverley%20(gb)_2008-06-24_315_pace.htm Looks like there'll be some pace on there with every runner given a 'minus figure'...........
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Re: Pontefract ~ Sun 22/06 3 non runners out of 8 declared for the listed race........... bit of a farce now with a 2/1 or 3/1 on favourite
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Re: Best bet of the day BBOTD SAT 21st June Asc 3.05 - Multidimensional EW Talented horse on his day, finished 5th in the Champion Stakes last year. Has had a couple of runs on totally unsuitable tracks, Epsom and Chester.........this fellow only seems to go on galloping tracks So.......expect a much improved performance today. Around 33/1...........not bad EW chance ! Sorry........edited, had wrong 'race time'.........
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Re: ATR Royal Ascot Competition - Day 5 Selections 3.45 Astronomer Royal - 100 points to win
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Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 2.30 Cuis Ghaire She won the first group race for 2YO in Europe a couple of weeks ago at Naas. She didn't only win........ she slaughtered the field, making all and quickening in the style of a good 'un to pull 4 lengths clear That win would be joint top of the 'most impressive 2YO performances' alongside Art Connoisseur in the Coventry.........well, to me anyway ! Can't see her getting beat............:ok
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Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 3.45 Coronation Stks There seems little doubt on the form that the Irish Guineas was better than the Newmarket Guineas. Four horses ran in both races and they were all beaten further in Ireland than they were at Newmarket, by 2 lengths, 8 lengths, 9 lengths and 10 lengths (approx). Average them out and the Irish form looks about 7 lengths better than the Newmarket form The french race looks the best of the 3 with Halfway to Heaven finishing 3rd in france and winning in Ireland. If you take the form from Halfway to Heaven, there's not much between Tuscan Evening, Caribbean Sunset and Modern Look with Psalm just behind them..........I expect those 4 to fight out the finish. RP forecast........Modern Look 7/1, Psalm 8/1, Caribbean Sunset 12/1, Tuscan Evening 16/1 I reckon Modern Look to win with a saver on Tuscan Evening EW or back all 4 of them EW...........
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Re: ATR Royal Ascot competition -Day 4 selections 2.30 Cuis Ghaire - 100 points to win
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Re: ATR Royal Ascot competition -Day 3 selections 3.45 Coastal Path - 100 points to win
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday Ascot 3.45 - Loup Breton - EW Good run last time out in the D'Ispahan, finishing just behind Darjina, running on well, nearest at finish. That was a slow run tactical race which wouldn't have suited this one Extra furlong will help today as will the O'Brien pacemaker hopefully ensuring a decent gallop Form lines from the Prix D'Harcourt and Ganay put him about 2 lengths behind Duke of Marmalade, well within the margin of error for luck in running, jockey mistakes, effect of draw and other random factors which determine the outcome of horse races. Gotta have an EW chance at around 20/1..........
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Re: Mistake on 'Life' site
I noticed this so often that I tried to figure out why........... My conclusion was that the Life shows the 'latest published' rating whereas the Post shows 'running off today' You notice it when a horse carries a penalty, the Life will show the rating without the penalty, the Post will include the penalty in 'todays rating' The Post OR is obviously more useful ! Other times tho'.........they just simply make a mistake as in showing the OR of Voy Por Ustedes as 137 when it should have been 173Seems ok for me mate. Just noticed 'mistakes' on the SL site though - the Offical BHA ratings differ from the RP site! -
Re: ATR Ascot competition -Day 2 selections 3.45 Duke of Marmalade - 100 points to win
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Re: Best bet of the day Tues 17/06 Ascot 2.30 - Finsceal Beo - to win Hedging my bets a bit because I've gone for Tariq in the Ascot Comp.......... I think Finsceal Beo has a terrific chance, dual Guineas winner, good second over 10F to Duke Of Marmalde on reappearance. A line through that form gives her the beating of Sageburg and Darjina Should come on for the run, should be suited by return to 8F. A proper Group One filly. Currently around 7/1 which seems far too big, no doubt reflecting the avalanche of 'stats guides' which tell us that fillies don't win.........well, 'other fillies' haven't won, this one hasn't run in the race before.....:dude
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Re: ATR Royal Ascot competition - Day 1 selections 2.30 Tariq - 100 points to win
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Re: ATR Royal Ascot competition - Sign up Hi............I'll have a go as well............
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Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Bit difficult to look beyond Henrythenavigator in the St James, even tho' the 'stats' might be against him. It doesn't look like a very strong field. None of the ones who missed the various Guineas look up to taking a part, except maybe Twice Over. My view is that the French Guineas wasn't that good - the horses that have come out and run since have all disappointed - but that Rio De La Plata will reverse placings with Falco, unless this comes too soon after his run in the Derby From the English and Irish Guineas there doesn't seem to be any reason why Stubbs Art and Ravens Pass should make up 4 or 5 lengths on 'Henry' I'd expect Ravens Pass to finish in front of Stubbs Art this time So........Henrythenavigator followed by Ravens Pass and Twice Over
Best Bet Of The Day ~ Sunday 29th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Sunday 29th I need a big winner to get into profit in the comp...... Curragh 3.50 - Frozen Fire - 1 point to win Didn't handle the track at Epsom but look at the Dante. In that race he finished a neck second to Tartan Bearer despite running green at the finish and wandering around a bit Must improve on a flattter track and over the extra distance ( German bred - should get better the further he goes) Current odds - Tartan Bearer Evs Fav, Frozen Fire 18/1........surely there shouldn't be that much between them if you ignore Epsom and look at the Dante !