Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Got my doubts about Haradasun for the opener. He's a dual Group One winner, but one of those was a handicap and the other was a 6 runner affair that he won by a neck. Since then he;s run in 4 Group One, 2 Group Two and a Group Three and been beaten in all of them. The two fillies, Darjina and Finsceal Beo both look top class and both should be suited by returning to a mile after running over further. Bit worried about the 'stats' saying no filly has won for ages and also Darjina having run poorly at Ascot before. Sageburg looks a late developer but turning into a class act. The Ganay form has worked out well and he beat Darjina decisively in the D'Ispahan. His racing style, held up & burst of speed, suggests he should be OK over a mile. Tariq is interesting, looks like an improving colt. Last year he won Listed, group 3, group 2 and started this year finishing one length 3rd in the G1 Lockinge.........traditionally the best 'trial' for the Queen Anne. The first 2 aren't running so he represents the Lockinge form. Won at Royal Ascot last year and was placed as a 2YO. At the moment I'd be looking at Tariq, Sageburg and Finsceal Beo - in that order.
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Re: Is this a good idea? I did the same a couple of months ago...........and coincidentely ended up with 5 furlong handicaps as my 'speciality'.......... Started off OK, then a long losing run of about 15 races got me re-thinking........... I was putting so much work into it every day, making copious notes on all the runners........I think I was over-studying, if that's possible.........I was convincing myself that either every runner could win or none of the runners could win......... At the end of a couple of months I came to the conclusion that actually it's just pretty random which one wins.........you're talking about heads, necks, half lengths here and there.........a short stride leaving the gate, a two second slow down waiting for a gap, a horse maybe not 100%, a jockey having an average ride instead of a good one...........all these imponderables make it random. I think if I start again on a 'speciality' I might go for long distance races instead...........logically you'd think that small factors should iron out over a couple of miles...........
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Re: Where to find draw analysis stats? Adrian Massey's site has lots of (free !) analysis covering the last 11 years or so............ http://www.adrianmassey.com/draw/index.php
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Re: Big Price EW Fancies 07/06 Epsom The Derby Alessandro Volta - Racing Post forecast 40/1 Won the Lingfield Derby trial. As we saw today, the Oaks winner came out of the Lingfield Oaks trial. Trained by A P O'Brien........he has half a dozen in the race which suggests there's not a lot between them and Murtagh has gone for King of Rome, who was behind the selection at Lingfield. I expect he's the pacemaker like Murtagh's ride in the Oaks today. Alessandro won a 9 furlong listed race at 2 and the 11 furlong trial at lingfield, so stamina should not be a problem and the drying ground is in his favour. Was as short as 10/1 for the derby after his lingfield win..........
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Re: Big Price EW Fancies
Looks like the drinks are on you, Winner...........:nanaAnyone else get a winner then?? -
Re: Big Price EW Fancies
Lads' date=' let's just not post tens of selections and put them here without any reasoning at all. Try to write a word or two why you fancy them, please. If possible :unsure[/quote'] Thanks ........ Yeah, come on, let's stick to PL practise....... Reasoning required and let's try and stick to 25/1 and above in the Post forecast........your regular each way fancies can just be put on the other threads for each day's racing........ This thread is for uncommon times when you see one and think ......erm, 33-1, that's got a chance that has !!............:lol -
Re: Big Price EW Fancies Cheers for replying guys..........I'll keep my eye out for those picks........ But ideally, for the purposes of this thread, I'd like only selections that are 25/1 and above in the RP forecast.........just to make this thread a bit different from the others...........:ok
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Do you ever have a sneaky fancy for something at a really big price for an EW flutter ? Well..........post them in here !........I mean if you don't want to put them in BBotD....... I thought maybe a cut off point could be 25/1 and above in the RP forecast..... Obviously not expecting a prolific amount of winners..........:lol I'll get the ball rolling....... 06/06 - Epsom - 3.25 - Coronation Cup - Turbo Lynn RPF 50/1 Terrifically game mare who has had an 'unusual' career path, having started in National Hunt Flat races - 'Bumpers' - winning all 5 she contested, then winning a maiden and Group 2 and Listed race on the Flat before tasting defeat for the first time in the Park Hill at Doncaster last year. She had been on the go for 9 races in 11 months - so can be excused that defeat. Ran another game race on seasonal debut giiving 9 lb to a race-fit rival and beaten a head in a Listed race, The Post said........'ran an absolute blinder in defeat, will be a different proposition with this run under her belt' I've got a sneaky feeling.............:ok
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Re: Best Bet of the Day Thurs 5th June Sandown 6.45 - The Lord - EW Going with a bit of a hunch today. This one is dropped down from a class 2 handicap last saturday over 6F, back to it's optimum trip of 5F on it's favoured soft ground and down in class..........I've got a feeing it might run a big race. It ran OK for the first 5 furlongs on saturday, then folded tamely. It's got previous for coming out quick and winning.........won 2 races in 2 days in 2006. OK, it's not been in good form of late, but this is it's easiest chance for a long time....... Much the same thoughts apply to 'Dazed And Amazed' and the booking of Ryan Moore is interesting for that one........but it's odds are a third of those of The Lord, so I'm sticking with that one.
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Re: BBOTD - June 4th 7.50 Ripon - Legal Eagle - 1 point to win Topweight, down in class from a 0-90 at Chester's May meeting, (and down a pound in the handicap as a bonus) where he finished a creditable 4th on firm ground. Should relish the soft ground today, has the plum number 1 draw With the non runners it's a small field........I expect him to make all along the rail and have the speed to pull away in the final furlong........ His main rival appears to be Mission Impossible who is going the other way, rising up the handicap, he won a 0-70, was second in a 0-80 and todays race is a 0-85.........he'll have to improve again.
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Re: 4th in the Guineas => 1st in the Derby From memory I think one of my favourites was fourth in the Guineas and won the Derby........... Generous ? OK, it's a few years ago.......... River Proud, Billy ? His supplement today really caught my eye.........he was finishing like a train in the French 2000, but the ones who ran in the French Derby let the form down and with the maiden, Falco, winning it doidn't 'look' a great race......... Still, despite that, i do like the look of River Proud..........
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Re: Best bet of the day 2nd June 2008
B*gger........I knew that one was going to win........I can't resist looking for each way rags that might sneak into third.......:cry:@Bolger's filly Cuis Ghaire has already won over CD, a 17 runner affair with horses from all the big yards. The horse that was 3rd has come out and franked the form by winning a Listed race, She's favourite and has a good chance. -
Re: Best bet of the day 2nd June 2008 4.10 Naas - Cool Tarifa - EW First 2YO group race of the season in Europe. Bolger's filly Cuis Ghaire has already won over CD, a 17 runner affair with horses from all the big yards. The horse that was 3rd has come out and franked the form by winning a Listed race, She's favourite and has a good chance. I'm going with the horse that won the first 2YO race of the season in Ireland and was then put away with this group race in mind. Small trainer doesn't appear to have many runners, which is a worry, but I don't expect the big yards to be bringing out their best ones yet, so this could be an opportunity for a small trainer to get a bit of glory She won in the style of quite a good 'un and the placed horses have placed in the better races since, so the level of form looks quite good. You'd have to take it on trust that she has improved physically in the last 2 months and didn't just win in March because she was big and strong........
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Sunday 1st 2.40 Chantilly - Modern Look - 1 point to win G3 winner as a 2YO, 2nd to Natagora on seasonal debut, 4th in the French 1000 Guineas behind the 'brilliant' Zarkava and only 3/4 length behind Irish 1000 Gns winner, Halfway to Heaven. Only faces 4 rivals. She's beaten 2 of them already this season and the other 2 look like stayers Probably be odds on but looks like a banker to get the comp off to a winning start.............:ok
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Re: Chantilly ~ Sunday 01/06 Can't disagree about Zambesi Sun.......... Group 1 winner last year, you'd have to say he's disappointed a bit in all his subsequent runs.........finishing 3rd of 6 in a group 2 when Favourite, 8th in the Arc going off at 11/2 second favourite (I think) and 6th and last in the group 1 Ganay this year when favourite again........ In retrospect the run in the Ganay last time doesn't look so bad......it was his seasonal debut over a trip that was probably too short. The RP reported that he should 'come on' for the run. Three of the ones ahead of him have already come out and won group 1 races since, so it's looking top notch form Todays race looks easier
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Re: Chantilly ~ Sunday 01/06 3.15 - 5 Furlongs group 2 - Captain Gerrard Been really impressed with the three year old sprinters in the all-age conditions races this season........they look a really good bunch ready to whup their elders. There are 3 three year olds in the race. That being so I wouldn't look beyond Sir Gerry and Captain Gerrard for this race. The 2 British three year olds will probably be favourite and second favourite. I'm going for Captain Gerrard on the basis that's he's a 5 furlong specialist whereas Sir Gerry has never run over 5 furlongs. Both of them look good enough to win a group 2 sprint. Our mate 'Mordin' reckons this Spanish horse, Equiano, the other three year old in the field, is a bit special and he's touting him for the Kings Stand.........I think a watching brief might be more advisable. He's won some small races in France, let's see what he does against our lot........
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Re: Chantilly ~ Sunday 01/06
I'll be watching on RUK.........I hope they don't have a Jumps meeting or two to mess up the coverage. ........:nanaThe crowds will be massive. Might even be 100 Frenchmen there. :lol I agree though, is a nice card. -
Re: Chantilly ~ Sunday 01/06 Cracking day at Chantilly tomorrow with 5 Group races...... I reckon the banker is...... 2.40 Modern Look - 8F Group 2 G3 winner as a 2YO, 2nd to Natagora on seasonal debut, 4th in the French 1000 Guineas behind the 'brilliant' Zarkava and only 3/4 length behind Irish 1000 Gns winner, Halfway to Heaven. Only faces 4 rivals. She's beaten 2 of them already this season and the other 2 look like stayers. No Forecast up on the RP site........the Life has..... 15/8 Modern Look, 11/4 Nijoom Dubai, 3/1 Albisola (IRE), 7/1 Mousse Au Chocolat (USA), 8/1 Lady Deauville (FR) I'd be very surprised if she was odds against........the Life's forecasts are notoriously unreliable. I expect she'll be odds on.......and if you fancy a bigger price flutter, I reckon Mousse Au Chocolat is the main danger.
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Re: Chantilly ~ Sunday 01/06
I think he's going to Epsom..........My finger isn't on the pulse as much as it could be with the classics - with regards to trainer reports etc. Why isn't Rio De La Plata in this? 10f looks ideal for him and he went French Guineas? -
Re: Bbotd Tables Well done to everyone who showed a profit..........:clap Every one of mine lost.........sheesh, it got so bad I stopped posting up tips........... Still, start again tomorrow..........I think I'll make a resolution to post every day and if I end up with 30 losers, well, I'll shoot myself.........:lol
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Re: Quick Question Might be because today's race is a 'claimer' whereas last time was a handicap.Even tho' they're both Class 4 races, claimers are usually seen as lower class than handicaps. You often hear the phrase 'dropped to claiming company'...........
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Re: Sandown 29/05/08 7.45 Hattan EW Bit of an outsider at 20/1 but looks to have a decent chance. Won a group 3 on it's seasonal debut, OK it was 'only' Lingfield but it was the Winter Derby and quite a competitive race, and a G3 is a G3. Has won in group 3 company before. Second time out it finished half a length 2nd to Ask in another G3 over course and distance. If Ask was running tonight what price would it be ? Probably be favourite. Finally it ran a week or two ago in Italy's big Group One and was beaten 6L by Saddex. It was eased when beaten and could have been a lot closer to what is a proper group one horse, Saddex being just beaten by Duke of Marmalade in the Ganay on it's previous run Hattan loves a bit of cut in the ground, likes the track, the distance is fine. Got to be a bit of value at around 20/1............:nana
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Re: The Whip Debate
This is the bit I don't get......... Why would it matter ? The record books would show Rheingold as the Derby winner, we'd all be saying what a great horse he was.......... He'd go off to stud and breed the next generation of great horses who can win without the whip......... Maybe if you'd been studying the form for that Derby in a no whip era, Rheingold might have stood out as the exceptional form horse because Roberto hadn't won his previous races because he needed the whip to win, whereas Roberto had stormed home by 20L in the trials because he didn't need the whip We'd still have the great horses, we'd still have horses winning 20 runner handicaps by a short head.........we'd look in the form book and see that the great horse, Rheingold, beat Roberto by a neck........what a great horse, really stuck his neck out and ran to the line.......... I'm not arguing the toss about the safety aspects...........I just don't see how it would affect racing. As long as none of the horses were whipped, it would be a level playing field..........and we'd still have winners.Me, and people like Billy The Punter have been watching racing long enough to know that you must have whips. If todays new racegoers think it's bad, for fcuks sake dont watch a replay of Lester at his best, winning the Derby on Roberto. If there was no whip, and a lesser jockey, it wouldn't have won, Rheingold would. -
Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends
Welcome to 'my' world, jtw............:lol:lol Great run, mate.........thanks for all the effort, I enjoy this thread. :clapFINSCEAL BEO 2nd @ 7/2 :eyes .
Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Kings Stand Just putting this 'out there' for those who think Fleeting Spirit is nailed on in the Kings Stand........... Our old friend Mordin has been doing some research...........:loon He gave Fleeting Spirit a huge 'speed figure' when she won the temple stakes..........but his research has dug up that........"the 24 fastest five furlong performances by three year old fillies on their seasonal debuts over the last dozen years have all been followed by defeat next time out." He reckons it's 'the bounce'............ I have no opinion on this........just putting it out for information !