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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A Looking at the above it might be that he's using '-' to denote new season and '/' to denote change of code from Flat to Jumps then back to Flat......... Anyway..........I popped in here to post a link to this French results site......... http://www.zeturf.com/en/resultats I was going spare waiting for either the Life or The Post to stick up a result from France.........2.45 race, neither had the result by 6.00......it was a proper Group race as well, not some claimer out in the sticks. Shocking......... So I googled around and found the French site.............

    Best Bet Of The Day - Sun 6/7/08

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Sun 6/7/08

    2.45 Maisons-Lafitte - Percolator - 1 point to win No idea what the odds might be...........if I was making the book she'd be odds-on, but I'm hoping that the presence of the other British raider, Elegant Cad, 5th in the 'Norfolk' and an unbeaten, 2 from 2, French horse might keep her at around 'evens'...........:hope
    Good news ............Percolator won !!............:clap Bad news...............went off at 2/5 Fav............:loon Thought it might be 'evens'..........pah, what do i know !...........:lol

    Best Bet Of The Day - Sun 6/7/08

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Sun 6/7/08 2.45 Maisons-Lafitte - Percolator - 1 point to win First group race of the season for 2YO in France. There's a couple of British raiders and I'm going for P Cole's Percolator. She's already gone over to France twice and won both of them, a listed race last time beating one of todays rivals by nearly 3L Five furlongs on good or softer ground is ideal - she seems like a typical early season 2YO, making her debut in the second 2YO race of the season in England and has now run 4 times. Obviously she'll get overtaken when the good ones come out to play, but she should take this in the meantime. I think generally the French 2YO probably start later than ours because they don't have a 'Royal Ascot' to aim for so a race fit early British runner has an advantage over there early season. No idea what the odds might be...........if I was making the book she'd be odds-on, but I'm hoping that the presence of the other British raider, Elegant Cad, 5th in the 'Norfolk' and an unbeaten, 2 from 2, French horse might keep her at around 'evens'...........:hope

    Best Bet Of The Day - Sat 5/7/08

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Sat 5/7/08 3.35 - Haydock - Record Breaker - 0.5 EW Just had a quick look at the Old Newton Cup and noticed the list of 'last 10 winners'...........all of them were 4 or 5 year olds carrying 9-3 or less........which only leaves a short list of 4 if that trend continues. Two of them would be fairly well fancied, Pippa Greene and Camps Bay. The one at the bottom looks to be a no hoper, Which leaves M Johnston's Record Breaker. I quite like the look of that one, despite the fact that M Johnston is useless and my last pick of one of his finished last..........:wall I like the fact that Record Breaker gets a but further than todays trip which could bode well if it turns into a test of stamina with a big field and softish ground. He can also 'front run' and there's some tight bends at Haydock which might just play into the hands of a front runner

    Haydock 05/07/08

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Haydock 05/07/08

    Yorkshire Oaks
    :loon Us Lancastrians are spitting feathers.............:loon:lol:lol Just had a quick look at the Old Newton Cup and noticed the list of 'last 10 winners'...........all of them were 4 or 5 year olds carrying 9-3 or less........which only leaves a short list of 4 if that trend continues. Two of them would be fairly well fancied, Pippa Greene and Camps Bay. The one at the bottom looks to be a no hoper, Which leaves M Johnston's Record Breaker. I quite like the look of that one, despite the fact that M Johnston is useless and my last pick of one of his finished last..........:wall I like the fact that Record Breaker gets a but further than todays trip which could bode well if it turns into a test of stamina with a big field and softish ground. He can also 'front run' and there's some tight bends at Haydock which might just play into the hands of a front runner.

    The Eclipse

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: The Eclipse If you rank the 9 runners by the highest level they've won at, it comes out as follows........ G1 - Literato, Mount Nelson G2 - Maraahel, Multidimensional, Rob Roy, Campanologist G3 - Phoenix Tower, Stotsfold Pipedreamer hasn't won a group race So.........2 group one winners in a field of 9 probably represents a poor renewal but with 8 horses having won group races it's got a decent look to it........ I suppose the acid test is how many group one winners will have run in it by the end of the season.........it's not impossible to think that the likes of Phoenix Tower, Campanologist, Multidimensional will win at the top level It might turn out to be a good renewal by the end of the season !........:loon I fancy Multidimensional, Phoenix Tower and Stotsfold for the places, but I'm going to have another look later........... I'm just concerned that the Ascot race might have taken a lot out of Mount Nelson, who's had his share of injury problems. Bit difficult to see Literato recapturing his best at the moment, particularly on firm ground. Maraaahel has been beaten in all 14 group one races he's contested. Rob Roy has become disappointing Campanologist looks good but does he want further, like the St Leger distance ?...... There was only 2 to 3 lengths between Phoenix Tower, Pipedreamer and Stotsfold at Ascot with Multidimensional running a cracker in a different race....... I'm kinda tempted by an EW on Stotsfold as I think he's bound to run his race, loves the firm ground, was running on at Ascot and I'm not certain the likes of Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer will bounce back from a couple of tough group one races this season I'm talking myself into..........Multidimensional to win, Stotsfold for a place...... Oops..........typing while thinking...............:tongue2:wall

    Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 4th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 4th July 2.50 Sandown - Russet Reward - 1 point to win Stiff 5 furlongs on g/f ground looks ideal for this one if his last time win at Bath is anything to go by. The second that day beat White Shift next time out at Windsor to frank the form There's a couple here coming up from class 6 races, who really shouldn't be good enough The others come off the back of being well beaten at Royal Ascot and the assumption would be that that was their career peak.......... What really grabs my attention though is that the trainer, Linda Stubbs, won the listed race for 2YO last night at Newbury with a similar type, one that had won last time out but by-passed Ascot and beat several runners coming out of the Ascot races.

    Question...running to form

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Question...running to form

    Ok, cheers Trotter I'm sure I once saw a table of trainers though, listed by those with the most runners running to form. Has anyone else seen such a table or may I be getting mixed up with something else?
    Yeah..........if you look on the Racing Post website racecards there's a little number after the trainers name..........that's meant to represent the % of the trainers runners that run to form......... Take me ages to work out what it meant !!............:wall

    Best Bet Of The Day - Thursday 3rd July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Thursday 3rd July

    2.40 Haydock - Makshoof - 0.5 EW Top rated by Massey and Postdata..........that'll probably scupper the price............but showing at 10/1 in the RP forecast
    Grrrr...........went off at 5/1 But a winner is a winner ! I nearly tried to change my EW to Win but thought it might be against the spirit of the competition..........you know, changing stuff, editing etc Would that have been OK ?............( I mean within time limits of course !! )

    Question...running to form

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Question...running to form I think when most people use the phrase they're not thinking in terms of pounds and lengths but just more generally in terms of the horse's level of ability......... So, for example, a horse finishes 3rd in the Eclipse beaten 3 lengths, the trainer might say 'we're not too disappointed, he's run to form' meaning that's kind of what they expected if he ran to his best. On the other hand if he finished 8th beaten 20 lenghts they might say 'that's a boi disappointing, he's ran below form'

    Haydock 03/07/08

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Haydock 03/07/08 2.40 Haydock - Makshoof Class 4 sprint handicap - this fellow has run in four similar races this season and has been getting closer each time, beaten (in round figures) 8L, 6L, 3L, 2L...........he's getting nearer the front with each race ! Has dropped a few pounds with each run and down another 2 lbs today, now 6 lbs lower mark than his last win but not necessarily in decline, Good draw, low to middle..........should be plenty of pace around with 17 runners * and he can race prominantly but not exposed at the front. Top rated by Massey and Postdata..........that'll probably scupper the price............but showing at 10/1 in the RP forecast The clincher is his course form........2 runs, 2 wins, both over 6 furlongs in double-figure fields. * obviously there'll be at least 2 non-runners.......:unsure At race time I'll be in the dentists chair................:loon

    Best Bet Of The Day - Thursday 3rd July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Thursday 3rd July 2.40 Haydock - Makshoof - 0.5 EW Class 4 sprint handicap - this fellow has run in four similar races this season and has been getting closer each time, beaten (in round figures) 8L, 6L, 3L, 2L...........he's getting nearer the front with each race ! Has dropped a few pounds with each run and down another 2 lbs today, now 6 lbs lower mark than his last win but not necessarily in decline, Good draw, low to middle..........should be plenty of pace around with 17 runners * and he can race prominantly but not exposed at the front. Top rated by Massey and Postdata..........that'll probably scupper the price............but showing at 10/1 in the RP forecast The clincher is his course form........2 runs, 2 wins, both over 6 furlongs in double-figure fields. * obviously there'll be at least 2 non-runners.......:unsure At race time I'll be in the dentists chair................:loon

    Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 2nd July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 2nd July 7.30 Leop - Royal Confidence - 1 point to win Should find this a lot easier than it's last 2 runs in the 1000 Guineas and Jersey Stakes. Was only beaten about 3 lengths in the Guineas and the general opinion was that it would be suited by a shorter trip Ran badly at Royal Ascot but was the only filly up against the colts so that run can be excused. Seven furlongs on firmish ground looks ideal and should have too much class for this field.

    Rating - 7.30 Leopardstown

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Been at a loose end lately, so I've devised a ratings system for group races...........:nana It's fairly simple........I've studied group one races from the start of the season and tried to correlate finishing positions and 'lengths beaten' with the horses previous runs in group 2 and group 3 and listed races. I give the winner of a group one a rating of 120 Based on this my conclusion is that a group 2 win is worth about 116, a group 3 win about 113 and a listed win about 110........so you'd expect a group one horse to beat a group 2 horse by 4 lengths, a group 3 horse by 7 lengths and a listed class horse by 10 lengths. I also look at 'previous runs' and 'next time out' runs for horses running in group one races to get a feel for if it was a 'good' group one or a 'poor' group one and adjust the ratings accordingly ( in other words it's basically collateral form with a 'class rating' system built in ) Using these ratings for previous runs I can look at todays conditions of trip, going, recent form etc to produce a rating of what I 'expect' the horse to run to today.......... So.......first public trial !!..............:loon Here's my ratings for tonights group 3 race at Leopardstown........with latest odds in brackets 114 Royal Confidence (5/2) 113 Aleagueoftheirown (9/1) 112 Forthefirstime (8/1) 112 Age Of Chivalry (4/1) 110 Cheyenne Star (5/1) 106 Queen Jock (33/1) 105 My Girl Sophie (10/1) 102 Dimenticata (10/1) 101 Mystical Lady (20/1) - Subtle Shimmer (33/1) - Joshua´s Princess (25/1) - Emily Blake (16/1) The bottom 3 are 'unrateable' on my system A group 3 winner should be able to score 113 - so the first 4 in the list would be around that mark. Obviously I'd expect the winner and placed horses to be in that group Ooooo.............can't wait to see how the race works out !!..........:eek

    Best Bet Of The Day ~ Tuesday 1st July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Tuesday 1st July Thirsk 7.50 - Importants News - 1 point to win M Johnston handicap debutante. Just had the minimum 3 runs required to get a mark, improving each time. Last time out finished 3rd, RP noted him 'staying on nicely from the rear of the field' , err.......'being schooled' I think they call it........:unsure Starts his hcap career off 67.........this looks lenient looking at that last race. The horse that beat him under 2 lengths at level weights is rated 80 The horse around 2 length behind him and getting 5lbs is rated 70 So.......he's done well to get a mark of 67 The only question is.......will he be 'off' tonight or is it another practice run ?...................:loon

    Irish In-Running Tactics

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Irish In-Running Tactics Haven't seen a replay of todays race so just going off initial impressions........and the race result 'comments in running' If the 'swerve' on A Volta was premeditated then the conclusion would be that they were setting the race up for Bashkirov - he was the only one of the O'Brien runners coming up the inside of AV.........but that's stretching credulity beyond limit. He was already a beaten horse as were two other O'Brien runners at the back of the field. It can't have been deliberately done to help Frozen Fire because he himself was coming wide and if the interfered with horses had gone further wide, he'd have been interfrerd with as well. As it was the comments in running say 'slightly hampered'....... In any case A Volta might have won himself if he'd run a straight line.......... I just can't see that it was deliberate.

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