Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Eps 2.35 - Mrs Fitzherbert - win at 7/2 wm hill
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Today's 2yo selections .... generally 2nd run, showed promise first time, yard's horses improve for first run
Epsom 2.00 - Kessaar Power - EW at 50/1 bet365 - prominent, lost position but rallied and ran on late on debut. With some of the fancied ones badly drawn could have an EW chance
Catt 1.44 - Dixiedoodledragon - EW at 25/1 Wm Hill - showed early speed before fading on debut at Carlisle, this easier track should suit
Bath 6.55 - Stunt Game - win 9/4 bet365 - came home nicely on debut, stiffer track should suit
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Epsom 4.30 - The Algarve - EW at 100/1 bet365
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Aidan O'Brien has 4 of the 11 runners in the Oaks
When Aidan chucks lots of ammunition at a race I usually reckon it's because he hasn't got one that he's pretty sure is going to win ..... or he's got one that needs a real test of stamina and he wants to throw pacemakers at the race one after the other. If he had one that he was fairly confident of he'd save the other 3 for other races in the near future like the Ribblesdale, Diane, etc. And maybe it's just my aging memory playing tricks but I think O'Brien's lesser regarded runners often run much better than expected and sometimes win or place
So I quite like the 2 outsiders of the 4 .....
Thoughts of June won the Chehire Oaks, a race which Aidan normally sends one of his best ones to and the 2nd that day, Above the Curve, won a Group One race in France last weekend so that form looks solid and you know she'll get the trip
And at huge odds you've got The Algarve .... now this one ran in the Musidora and finished 9 lengths behind the Oaks favourite, Emily Upjohn. There's reason to expect her to be closer to that rival tomorrow as she was on seasonal debut whereas Emily had already had a run........... and any horse that's within a few lengths of the favourite might be placed and then if you're thereabouts you never know !
So a couple of EW punts .....
Thoughts of June - EW at 14/1 Wm Hill and others
The Algarve - EW at 100/1 bet365
- richard-westwood and MCLARKE
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10 hours ago, Trotter said:
1.26 Ham - Coco Jack - 7/4 bet365 - ran on late at Windsor on debut to finish 5th, finished well, 4th has won next time
3.37 Redcar - Sparkling Red - 4/5 bet365 - finished 2nd on debut in a big field, winner won a Listed race next time
5.30 Chelm - Mascapone - 15/8 bet365 - finished 4th in the Brocklesby on debut, usually a good guide for early season 2yo
bit better today ....
1 Won 9/4
2 2nd
3 Won 15/8 (SP 7/4)
After 2 days of June's 2yo's ......... bets 6 - Stakes 6.00 - 2 won, 4 lost - P/L (1.00 level stake) - minus 0.87p
- Wildgarden, yossa6133, The Equaliser and 1 other
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3.37 Redcar - Sparkling Red - win at 10/11 wm hill
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Undaunted by yesterday's three losers I'm having another look at the two year olds ....... once raced, showed promise, expected to improve on their second start. Unlike yesterday I've got 3 favourites
1.26 Ham - Coco Jack - 7/4 bet365 - ran on late at Windsor on debut to finish 5th, finished well, 4th has won next time
3.37 Redcar - Sparkling Red - 4/5 bet365 - finished 2nd on debut in a big field, winner won a Listed race next time
5.30 Chelm - Mascapone - 15/8 bet365 - finished 4th in the Brocklesby on debut, usually a good guide for early season 2yo
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Not sure it's the right time to be looking at two year olds ...... not much form and the better ones come out later in the season
But I've had a look at todays races ...... I particulary like horses who've had one run but finished down the field, preferably showing a bit of promise, eg seeming to get the hang of it and run on late....... and from yards who's horses tend to come on a lot from their debuts
1.55 Nott - I put up Lady Miller at 20/1 in the Naps comp and it's been well backed now ..... fits my bill from Meehan's yard and ran at Sandown on debut so this is probably easier.
5.00 Rip - Shandy Star 4/1 .... took my eye that the horse debuted in a Listed race finishing 10th. Drops back to regular class 5 novice company for 2nd start.
5.55 Kemp - not great form from the two that have run before, the pick of which by my 'system' is Full Prime 4/1 . But this might go to a newcomer and Archie Watson is establishing himself as a top trainer of early two year olds ...... his Way To Amarillo at 5/1 looks a likely type, 140K Euro half sister to 4 winners and should be ready to run first time as is the stable method
- kensland, fd1972uk, The Equaliser and 1 other
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5 minutes ago, calva decoy said:
Looking at last year's top 3 with sp's of 16/1 , 50/1 & 6/1 all 3 very good previous course form , it's just a think outside the box jobby than backing a favourite etc... albeit Desert Crown looked superb in The Dante .
not sure what you mean there Calva, ....... none of last year's first 3 had ever run at Epsom before the Derby !
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1.55 - Lady Miller - win at 20/1 bet365
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Definitely see the point about track suitability which plays a big part in my form study
But just for the sake of debate ........
I think as regards top class horses, ie potential Derby winners, they will probably have the attributes to handle Epsom by virtue of being top class, that is well balanced and straightforward as far as going where the jockey wants them to go and not being quirky. Ticking all the boxes is what makes them top class horses. Derby winners also win at York, Ascot, Curragh, Longchamp ...... different tracks requiring different attributes, but they win becuae they've got all the attributes.
I think the 'unusual track' argument is much more relevant to handicappers who have a wide range of attributes more likely to be suited to some tracks and not others
Finally .... the Epsom Derby Trial. If Epsom form was such a big factor you'd think the race would be the premier Derby trial but it isn't ...... trainers don't run their Derby horses in the Epsom trial and no horse has won both races for over 80 years
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Newb 1.35 - Seductive Power - win at 10/3 bet365
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Charlie Appleby has supplemented Nations Pride for the Derby and is now 3rd Favourite at around 7/1
Maybe that's an indication that he's not very confident about his two horses already in the field ........Nahanni, who won the Epsom derby trial and Walk of Stars who finished 2nd in the Lingfield trial. Neither of those pieces of form would scream 'Derby winner'Nations Pride has already had 5 runs ...... he lost narrowly on debut and then won small races on the AW and at Meydan before winning a Listed race at Newmarket by 7 lengths in April. Most interest in him stems from a quote from Charlie Appleby where he said the horse is his most likely Derby winner after impressing on the gallops.
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3.30 Hayd - Sunray Major - win at 4/1 bet365
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3.10 Bev - Greek Kodiac - win at 25/1 bet365
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7.10 Windsor - Sweet Reward - win at 4/1 bet365
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I dumped RTV a few months ago
Still got SSR so good to see Newbury moving ..... with Ascot it'll provide lots of top class flat racing on SSR
To be honest these days I rarely watch live racing on TV ...... with the Racing Post covering UK races live and the Sporting Life giving UK and Irish replays soon after the races I tend to watch those for the races that interest me
You can also watch replays on the ATR site including French
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2.40 Curr - State of Rest - win at 3/1 bet365
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Muss 3.38 - Alpha Cru - win at 8/1 bet365
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Not often you can get 16/1 on an Aidan O'Brien, Ryan Moore runner in an Irish group race
But with Native Trail massive odds on for the Irish Guineas there's some EW prices on promising horses
Curragh 3.20 - Ivy League - EW at 16/1 Corals
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Torino v Roma - Draw at 3.50
10 points
Cheers !
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5.25 Curr - Boundless Ocean - win at 7/1 bet365
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3.50 Wolv - Freedom Flyer - win at 12/1 bet365
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4.00 Bri - Mitigated Risk - win at 17/2 bet365
Naps - Sunday 5th June
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
6.15 Muss - Business - win at 12/1 bet365