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Coral gold cup Sam brown (if runs) ..1115 25/1 Victorrino. 1110 13/2 Kandoo kid. 1100 Colonel harry. 1100 I asked my friends to look at this race and everyone came up with a diff horse lol 😂.....so the computer has had a go ......Sam brown is the value bet if runs here( ran bravemansgame to a length and if that one was entered for this he would be like 5/2 fav) but is entered for another race too ......victorrino looks an ideal type and Venetia is holding a 33% s r recently .....colonel harry is dangerous if he gets the distance ...questionable ......I'm Def backing victorrino 5pt Ew ....I'll wait on Sam brown to see if runs .....if not I might take a chance on colonel .....good luck if you play in this hard race 😁

No thread for today so - Musselburgh 3.20 The Geordie Ginge 22/1 win bet365

2.45 brandy mcqueen. 3/1

Stats for the Coral Gold Cup (still called the Hennessey as far as I'm concerned) Caereer starts 15 - 18, 7 wins from 48 runners, LSP 41, remainder 4 from 156, LSP -58 This leaves HORANTZAU DAIRY at 12/1, 4 places Also passes the second test, forecast odds 5/1 to 10/1, 9 from 69, LSP 59

When I was allowed to do these I applied 2 rules to my selections 1. Odds 8/1 to 25/1 2. Must be best odds on oddschecker I had 602 bets and made a profit of £982 to £1.50 stakes. The biggest win was £990, with one at £375 and one at £99. There were a further 100 winning bets, all of £20 or less.

225 t Nugentown Sue ew 25s

Value is very difficult to define, certainly in simple terms. As I have said before make sure that the odds are best or joint best on OC, it doesn't matter whether it's 2/1 or 20/1.

Requested 3 00Nby 1/40th of a pt ew 40/1 { flaged up days ago} Sam Brown 3 00Nby 1/40th of a pt ew 33/1 Frero Banbou 3 20Nec 1/40th of a pt ew 16/1 -Won Anyharmasking 1 54Nby 1/40th of a pt ew 14/1 {punted few days ago} -4th Oh Betty 2 25Nby 1/40th of a pt ew 18/1

People also lose sight of the fact that many are happy to put a 50p forecast on that returns say 50/1 (with all the deductions) so should be happy to have a double on a L15 that pays say 50/1 which is not uncommon which is why the selections need to be "decent odds" say 6/1 & 22/1 (plus the 2 singles) that returns £21 as @LEE-GRAYS has just shown for a 10p L15 jobby.

No bet day today - quiet week

Definitely sound advice, or at least weed out anything that is worse than "next price down". Taking 10/1 about something that is 14/1 elsewhere is a self imposed handicap you're unlikely to overcome. Only bet where you're getting best or close to best price. ("Best price only" is the optimum approach but a bit of latitude is ok where the emphasis is more on the entertainment angle.)

Gerry Fielden Hurdle (Newbury 2.25) stats 1st last time out 2 from 33, LSP - 18 Career starts 7 to 20, 8 from 46, LSP 12, remainder 3 from 40, LSP -23 This leaves BALLEE at 20/1, 4 places

Result: Two Stori 1st. Won £30 November loss to date £57.05.

Rehearsal chase Marble sands 1080 6/1 Kinondo kwetu. 1075 25/1 Jetplane. 1068 Black magic. 1067 There is a link between this and the above race .....marble sands destroyed colonel harry so if that one runs a good race it would Frank his chances .....question over distance like above race . Kinondo kwetu looks the value bet ....5 PT Ew top 2

5 Fold AccumulatorRef: 631741345 5 Selections 155.76/1 6. Miller Spirit - 11/10Winner - 14:55 Lingfield 5. Ventara - 13/8Winner - 15:10 Taunton 4. Twoplacesatonetime - 9/4Winner - 15:20 Musselburgh 6. Superstylin - 5/2Winner - 15:30 Lingfield 4. Doctor Blue - 6/4Winner - 15:45 Taunton Stake£ 0.10 Potential Returns£ 15.68 TreblesRef: 631741348 5 Selections 6. Miller Spirit - 11/10Winner - 14:55 Lingfield 5. Ventara - 13/8Winner - 15:10 Taunton 4. Twoplacesatonetime - 9/4Winner - 15:20 Musselburgh 6. Superstylin - 5/2Winner - 15:30 Lingfield 4. Doctor Blue - 6/4Winner - 15:45 Taunton Stake£ 0.50 Potential Returns£ 10.65 Four FoldsRef: 631741351 5 Selections 6. Miller Spirit - 11/10Winner - 14:55 Lingfield 5. Ventara - 13/8Winner - 15:10 Taunton 4. Twoplacesatonetime - 9/4Winner - 15:20 Musselburgh 6. Superstylin - 5/2Winner - 15:30 Lingfield 4. Doctor Blue - 6/4Winner - 15:45 Taunton Stake£ 0.25 Potential Returns£ 14.50 Retain Selections Total Stake£ 0.85 Total Potential Returns£ 40.83

Lingfield 3.30 Superstylin 5/2 win bet365

I like the Carle bet. She was dreadful in the Colina final and also has a habit of hitting quite a few double faults which could help your bet further. I'm less sure about the Sherif bet as she disappointed last week and Mladenovic despite being in terminal decline still has the odd good performance in her. As was mentioned, it's a big handicap and if anything I think I'd prefer Mladenovic on the plus instead of Sherif on the minus.

I do find this discussion interesting (for better or worse in terms of the use of my time) and have given it some thought. Been harking back to an article I read by Clement Freud on the subject of staking (they need to be big enough to hurt you if you lose, obviously without causing you any financial harm. But if the stakes are insignificant you don't really care enough about losing and that feeds into the bet selection process). Also, there should be consideration as to whether or not the potential returns are big enough to make the bet worthwhile in the first place. When I look at @The Equaliser's daily updates I sometimes have a two-stage reaction. The number of winners sounds promising but then the return leaves me distinctly underwhelmed. A decent sounding number of winners but only a very small profit on the day, or even a small loss. I think the issues are as follows: The amount staked each day is quite small. I'm not going to quibble with that particularly, no-one should bet more than they can afford and, more to the point, more than they're willing to lose. If you just increased the stake and did nothing else then you'd just lose more anyway but; I do feel the stake is spread too thinly across too many Lucky 15s. I don't care what anyone says, no-one is really bothered about losing 75p on a bet and that risks the selection process not being as strong as it should be. That issue is compounded by the number of selections at very short prices. In some cases the potential returns call into question whether the bet is worthwhile or not. I'll give a specific example later but I think it boils down to this. I'd raise the bar in terms of prices so that the minimum returns for any given number of selections are a bit better. If that means reducing the number of selections by putting a line through the shorties then maybe do slightly less L15s but to slightly higher stakes. I'll have some lunch to allow the sense of anticipation to mount for you all!

@novirus when you link externally we need to approve it and there is a chance nobody sees it. Just a heads up, that it's a risk it could get missed. Might be better just stating your pick. Cheers

1.50 Thurles taking on Mullins Fishery Lane with a long shot, Therellbguddaysyet gets a top Jockey Booking today for this Maiden Hurdle in an improving Darragh O'Keeffe in the saddle. 80/1 WIN Only Bet 365

1.25 Taunton: In the Air @ 3/1 (Bet365)

Lingfield 12.35 £20 Two Stories @6/4 bet365

Maristany Zuleta De Reales to beat (+3.5 games) Maria Lourdes Carle at 2.14 with Coolbet Mayar Sherif to beat (-6.5 games) Kristina Mladenovic at 2.29 with Coolbet Let's see if this is a good or bad idea but I'm thinking of an acca with these two, Carle hasn't looked good at all this week and reached the final in Colina last week and reached the final in this Buenos Aires tournament last season losing to Laura Pigossi. Now Carle will lose lots of points if she loses tonight but she doesn't need to lose for my bet to come in. It just needs to be a tight win for Carle. Mayar Sherif didn't waste time in set 3 when defeating Strakhova, she acctually looked so determined that last set that I think she might cruise to the title this week. Mladenovic looked like she usually does at this stage of her career when defeating Carolina Alves having far to many problems in her win. Sherif has lost to Mladenovic twice back in the days when Kicki acctually had something to say on the big stage but now she's far from that form. However we'll see if I'll look like a genious or just stupid after this later today. Atleast I've thought this over pretty good so let's go! Combo total odds: 4.90 with Coolbet

My confidence took a knock yesterday regarding my outsider selections which resulted in two L15's where the return was less than 60 points. These were very unusual L15 bets for me as usually my bets have a much higher potential return. You offer sound advice but even @Zilzalian has posted up winning treble bets on an L15 using at least one short priced favourite so I don't think it is as clear cut as stipulating all odds have to be 5/1 or more for a winning L15 formula. I disagree that my small 0.75 stakes means that not much consideration is given to the selections as you pointed out earlier. I must have spent at least three hours today trying to find winners. I do need to polish up on getting value for all my bets. It would be great to know what criteria are workable for a 20/1 upwards bet; a 10/1 - 20/1 bet and a 7/2 to 9/1 bet. It surely can't be the same for each category.

One more for today -£184 day 270

Sam brown is going for this surprisingly as he was half the price for the other race ,.......I'm happy to take the 33 /1 4 places ...5 PT Ew

Normal service resumes - todays results - Taunton 12.15 Till You Can’t 33/1ew £2.00 365------lost 18/1 Musselburgh 12.25 Kingston James 9/2ew £2.00 W Hill---lost 10/3 Musselburgh 3.20 The Geordie Ginge 28/1ew £2.00 365------lost 40/1 Lost £6.00 New total lost £66.63 and betfair Taunton 12.15 Till You Can’t 53.01 £1.00 £1.00 lost Musselburgh 12.25 Kingston James 5.74 £1.00 £1.00 lost Musselburgh 3.20 The Geordie Ginge 29.60 £1.00 £1.00 lost Lost £3.00 New Total Lost £39.46

Nice start shame one of the others never got place 😂 the other one paid £1.50 -£184 day 270

I would ignore comparing the accumulated odds, use BETFRED but only when the individual selections are best odds on oddschecker. I t will reduce the number of selections but they will be much better value.

Lost +£1115 day 74

Had a look round and can't get anywhere those 170 prices. So short in places that there are arbs so get on quick if you can get an half decent overs price. 3 for me for a bit of interest (the last 2 using up freebies) Anderson e/w 25/1 (took that a while back when someone on here suggested it might shorten which it certainly has!) Michael Smith 28/1 Dobey e/w 40/1

Premier League -£21.67 (Bank £78.33) Championship Burnley/Coventry Draw ❌ Leeds ✅ Norwich ✅ Cardiff ❌ -£5,56 +£0.64 (Bank £100.64) Combined banks -£21.03

245 m Ganapathi ew 12s

Bump

This seems a good example of stake too small and/or odds too short to me. It's hardly the Euromillions when all 4 returns less than £60! Having said that, it's worth bearing in mind that the accumulated odds are around 540/1 so that should set your expectations around how easy it is to get all 4 up (given that the true odds are obviously quite a bit bigger than that). By my calculations these are the best and worst returns for 1 to 3 winners at those odds: 1 winner £1.33 or 43p 2 winners £2.75 or £1.02 3 winners £13.25 or £5.65 It's hard to get too excited about any of those numbers! When I do my occasional L15 I tend to try and avoid anything shorter than 7/1. At double odds one winner would get me my money back. At treble odds you need a 5/1 shot to land to cover your outlay. Personally I don't like the notion of a bet where I can get back less than my stake so my suggestion would be to consider setting 5/1 as your minimum odds. If you must occasionally go shorter than that I'd only make an exception for an unusually strong selection that you were combining with 3 at bigger prices. With 5/1 as your minimum odds your worst case scenario returns become: 80p for 1 winner (still in "what's the point?" territory for me and Clement but at least it covers your stake) £2.40 for 2 winners £17.10 for 3 winners In short, up the odds a bit, trim the number of bets each day and up the stakes slightly with the money that leaves going spare. Change the risk/reward ratio so that you have a few more days where you get nothing back but a few more where you actually make a profit. And make sure that the big one, when it eventually arrives, makes the effort worthwhile.

Lucky 15 E/W Taunton 2:00 In Dor 7/1 1st 2:35 Bigz Belief 25/1 4th Thurles 3:00 party Dress 5/2 1st Musselburgh 2:10 Freddie Robinson 7/1 2nd

Week Thirteen NFL Predictions YTD P60 W28 D2 L30 Staked 360 pts, returned 91.80 pts = YTD loss of 268.20 pts. (1) Green Bay Packers to win ATS -3.0 points @ 5/6. The Dolphins have enjoyed playing in the Florida sunshine. It will be a completely different ask playing in the cold at Lambeau field. (2) NY Giants to win ATS +3.5 points @ 10/11. All the public will be with Dallas. I am predicting an upset over thanksgiving, mainly due to the Giants running game and QB Drew Lock. (3) Washington to win ATS -5.5 points @ 10/11. Washington have gone off the boil recently, but a home game against the Titans can put things right. (4) Buccs to win ATS -6.0 points @ 10/11. The Panthers nearly upset the Chiefs last week but that was due to the Chiefs easing up in the second half. The Buccs will be playing all out as they try to reach the play-offs. (5) Bronco’s to win ATS -5.5 points @ 10/11. Mile high stadium should give the Broncos an advantage against the Browns. Expect defences to excel. Bet: 10 x 1 point trebles 5 x 3 point 4 timers 5 point accumulator

Taunton 2.35 UGO BINGO 16/1win bet fred

Taunton: 3:45 - Ben Lomond 33/1 E/W

I'm developing various lay bet strategies.

The 8/13 is gone now but you can still get 3/5 for over 3.5 170 finishes and 13/10 for over 4.5 170s with Novibet.

I agree that it is difficult to get an L15 up. You seem to get a significant payout about every three months, which is much to your credit. I would need 3 winners at something like 20/1, 20/1 and 10/1 using my existing stakes. This is a big ask. If you care to check some of my L15's you will see that I could have achieved this on occasions. I do many more L15's than you do so I feel that I should manage to get a full L15 up any time soon. I respectfully disagree that I will lose money next year as I am gaining good experience whilst working on improving my selection process.

In many ways, I feel that finding winners in horse racing is like a lottery. Apart from all the misleading information about the runners before a race, many things can happen during a race that influence the result. I am not worried about too many selections. I do get concerned when I don't get a run for my money. This makes me want to review my selection process. I am currently using five different form line criteria and considering the top three rated in each. Funnily enough, those with the most points, 5 being the maximum, do not seem to fair any better than perhaps just a lone top-rated runner. Indeed, one of these is often at much longer odds because the runners with the most points are pretty short in the betting. It's fascinating stuff and keeps me busy most of the day. Concerning checking the bookies for the best prices, I find this problematic. Quite often, because of the early start times in racing during the winter, I am in danger of missing races because I run out of time before racing starts. I like my idea of checking the accumulated odds on both Betfred and Bet365 and if there is a significant difference in them on Bet365 then I should choose Bet365. This has to compensate for a double payout on a single winner instead of a treble payout on Betfred. What that difference should be, I don't know. Perhaps you or someone on the Forum could help me with this.

Yes your right sorry 😂

Most winners @Peter York odds on to win

I have now analysed 7 years of data and the results are generally positive. The top rated horse was Jonbon in last years Tingle Creek Chase. Jonbon currently has the highest BHA rating. The optimum return was for the next 4 runs. The top 27% achieved an AE of 1.011. The returns were not as linear as I would have preferred with the top 1% having a return of 0.999, 2% 0.989, 5% 1.001, 10% 0.991, 20% 1.005 and 50% 0.998. Interestingly those horses that did not complete had an AE of 1.028. I think this was an area that @LEE-GRAYS looked at once, perhaps it is worth revisiting. A lot more analysis for me to do but hopefully the seeds of a profitable system have been sown !

Placed 3rd 80/1 bog +£150 +£1135 day73

I've completed my first set of calculations and so far it is looking promising. The class adjustments for the 2022/23 season are as follows This is fairly linear across the classes. These have then been applied to the data for the 2023/24 season. The top rated horse is Jonbon in the Tingle Creek chase. On their next run, the top 50% of horses achieved an AE of 1.021 and achieved a profit using proportional stakes. The strike rate was 18%. Taking all runs into account the top 25% is the ideal range. For the next 7 runs there were 1,493 wins from 8,136 selections with a profit at LSP of 109 points. The AE was 1.03 and the strike rate was 18%. So despite all the misgivings about NH speed figures the initial outcome looks encouraging. One note of caution, most of the highest figures have been achieved by chasers. Of the top 100, 87 were chasers.