Leaderboard

Result: All Ways Glamorous 1st. Won £45 October profit to date £5

715 kemp class Chalk mountain 456 3/1 Mezzo soprano. 452 9/2 Aljari. 452 16/1 Chalk mountain is a horse on the upgrade and should make a bold bid ......aljaris value is off the scale ....I think bet365 have priced this race wrong ....should be around 6/1 not 16/1 !!!..... 5 PT win chalk 3pt Ew aljari

A second and a faller from two selections yesterday... Off to Huntingdon today so best be quick,here is the pick of the morning prices according to my tissue... Huntingdon: 14.30 Mrs Tabitha 5/1 16.35 Call Me Arthur 13/2 1707 Cadarn 10/3 Leicester: 14.23 Pay Attention 7/2 16.25 Lord Melbourne 11/4 All quotes are Bog prices from Betfred at 10.am

Won Profit: +£70 Month: £0

these 2 prices baffled me on SB. I know there are lots of runners for this but MVG most 180s and highest checkout of the night 100/1 Anderson most 180s and the highest checkout night 80/1. In terms of 180s and players that play tonight, Heta is top in the last 12 months with 527 but MVG has 486 and Anderson 455. Importantly, when you then only look at ranked TV events, MVG goes top. Checkout %, Wade and Wright are above MVG but I'm not sure those 2 are in the form to win this bet. MVG has won this event 6 times in the last 12 years. and hit 170 and 167

Ratings 4.25 liecster. Galyx. 97.7/2. Kotari. 99. 7/2. 2pts win kotari. And 1pt r.f.c.

AW selection Southwell 6.00 FIRST DYNASTY

I will go a treble of "Overs" for the 180s tonight as I think we'll see quite a few, in these ties : Over 4.5 total 180s - Chizzy V Menzies / Anderson V Smith / Dobey V Cullen 4/1 Paddypower I've also gone with a 5-fold that has the Ando v Smith match at >5.5 180s and >4.5 in Woodhouse v Van Den Bergh & Price v Noppert matches. That's with Gentleman Jim at around 28/1 👇🏻 as I'm testing this bookie out.

Brighton 2.40 ME TARZAN 9/2 £10 EW Ladbrokes 4 places

Just having a quick look at the upcoming cesarewitch .....a good race to test out any class thoughts Samui. 615 Dawn rising. 611 Spirit mixer 599 Falcon eight 594 The shunter. 590 Run for oscar 585 Sixandhalf 574 As I mentioned class ratings alone aren't accurate .....they have to be coupled with other information ....form ratings .....speed ratings .....even trends ......this particular race lends itself strongly to trends ....in this race the trends very much favours the lower weights ....particularly 9-3 or below as the distance and regularly soft ground gives those a big advantage usually ...makes sense so that trend alone omits falcon eight ....samui ...dawn rising ....run for oscar ....and the shunter (who also fails on fitness ) .....leaving 2 Sixandhalf 576 Spirit mixer 599 Pretty obvious who is currently interesting me ....especially at 25/1 !! I can't rate the fav sea of sands as he's a jump horse but the fact he's mullins and jump horses do really well in this race and he's fav he certainly warrants respect albeit short ...4/1 (50/1 into 4/1 )....biggest gamble of season

Yeah, unlucky Fader, Humphries looked beaten after the first five legs last night. Anyone else think Michael Smith has reached a backable price against Gary Anderson tonight, 11/8 seems pretty big. I appreciate Gary has been in unbelievable form on the floor, but he does seem to struggle to translate floor form to the big stage nowadays. Neither has a great record in this tournament, Anderson has two semi-final appearances in 14 years, whilst Smith had a very poor record until reaching the semi-final last year. Smith has reached the semi-final of the Matchplay and final of the World Series finals this year - so has recent big stage form on his side. Of course if ‘floor Gary’ turns up this bet is in trouble, but I think at the prices, the value lies with Smith.

If only we ever knew before every tournament which Cullen would show up. 😁

Littler gone and now MVG and Dobey blown out in the first round. Who would have foreseen that?! Would have been a nice treble on that liklihood!

Placed +£22 -£101 day 28

Tonight I’ve gone a four-fold consisting of wins for van den Bergh, Heta, Smith, and Dobey to win and hit the most 180s - pays just over 17/1 with Coral.

Today I'm going for the Timeform (in the Sporting Life) selections in the 5 handicaps at Huntingdon ...... 2.00 Lightning Gesture 4/1 2.30 Diva B 11/1 3.30 Cracking Destiny 15/2 4.00 Catuaba 7/1 4.35 Getupearly 5/2 prices bet365 10 x £2 doubles Timeform appear to like a few bigger priced ones so if any two win should be in profit

As Bryan Ferry might say, you can guess the rest! Small loss for me on real money bets this week though would have been a small profit had I just played all of the system picks. Onto next week.

Leics 353 Stone Circle 12/1 £10 ew. bet365.

yeah, probably value in Smith. I don't think Anderson is backable at the current price that's for sure.

Southwell 16.55 £20 All Ways Glamorous @9/4 William Hill

5.15 Brighton: Kondratiev Walk @ 7/2 (Bet365)

Cullen played fantastic, it has to be said. If he hadn't missed so many double finishes at the start he could have won it in two. Dobey played a few superb legs but went missing in a few others, Cullen the more consistent and definitely deserved the win, I'd like to see him go deep now, will take something special to beat him if he continues to play at this level.

4 winners today, 2 in a double with Billy aboard. The returns were 4.64 from 6.75 pts staked so a small loss of 2.11 for watching 20 races of entertainment. My Loss C/Fwd is L15's - 96.37 and RC P/L incl L15's = -151.05

700 s Anna Of Saxaony 15/2

Southwell 1830 Shah 1/6 betfair

1 pt win International Girl 15/2 Bet365 Southwell 7.30

5.0 Leicester takes time 12/1 365

One to avoid. 310 Epimeteo 13/2 botti 2/7 here 4 seasons

515 BRI JAMES PARK WOODS 3/1 WH

Lucky15Ref: 568171126 4 Selections 2. Havechatma - 7/2Winner - 16:20 Southwell 1. Lord Melbourne - 3/1Winner - 16:25 Leicester 7. Autumn Rose - 9/1Winner - 17:00 Leicester 6. Anglesey Lad - 11/1Winner - 20:00 Southwell Stake£ 0.75 Potential Returns£ 196.58

Lucky15Ref: 568165420 4 Selections 9. Willingly - 12/1Winner - 15:23 Leicester 4. First Dynasty - 7/2Winner - 18:00 Southwell 4. Anna Of Saxony - 9/1Winner - 19:00 Southwell 9. Heart Of The City - 22/1Winner - 19:30 Southwell Stake£ 0.75 Potential Returns£ 1,016.3

250 b Majestic Heights 17/2 only runner combo 2/3 here this season

Lucky15Ref: 568160824 4 Selections 4. Epimeteo - 13/2Winner - 15:10 Brighton 8. Rivas Rob Roy - 25/1Winner - 16:45 Brighton 2. Blue Collar Lad - 10/1Winner - 17:15 Brighton 11. Crimson Angel - 9/2Winner - 19:30 Southwell Stake£ 0.75 Potential Returns£ 895.00

Lucky15Ref: 568158580 4 Selections 12. Twilight Moon - 7/2Winner - 15:10 Brighton 6. Cloudy Rose - 7/1Winner - 15:40 Brighton 6. Ifonlytheycudtalk - 9/1Winner - 16:20 Southwell 3. Aviemore - 14/1Winner - 16:25 Leicester Stake£ 0.75 Potential Returns£ 435.55

ucky15Ref: 568152001 4 Selections 4. Luisa - 11/2Winner - 14:53 Leicester 1. Ratafia - 9/2Winner - 17:00 Leicester 6. Rebel Star - 8/1Winner - 16:55 Southwell 10. Just Typical - 9/1Winner - 18:00 Southwell Stake£ 0.75 Potential Returns£ 268.07

Lucky15Ref: 568148020 4 Selections 4. Havana Club - 15/2Winner - 14:40 Brighton 10. Kimchi - 9/1Winner - 15:40 Brighton 3. Mrembo - 9/2Winner - 16:10 Brighton 4. Bubbles Up - 18/1Winner - 16:55 Southwell Stake£ 0.75 Potential Returns£ 679.20

Lucky15Ref: 568145221 4 Selections 8. Cassandraalexandra - 7/2Winner - 14:40 Brighton 8. Stone Circle - 9/1Winner - 15:53 Leicester 9. Little Tiger - 13/2Winner - 16:10 Brighton 1. Haliphon - 10/1Winner - 20:30 Southwell Stake£ 0.75 Potential Returns£ 308.50

Lucky15Ref: 568141720 4 Selections 1. Summer Of Light - 11/2Winner - 14:23 Leicester 7. So Smart - 18/1Winner - 15:53 Leicester 5. Heer's Sadie - 12/1Winner - 17:15 Brighton 4. War Bride - 9/2Winner - 19:30 Southwell Stake£ 0.75 Potential Returns£ 682.45

Current loss - 4.14 COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES Brighton 2.10 Secret Handsheikh 3.50 BETFAIR Leicester 3.23 Impressor 25.00 LADBROKES 4 Leicester 3.23 Belsito 15.00 LADBROKES 4 Leicester 3.53 Makanah 4.50 LADBROKES Leicester 4.25 Lord Melbourne 3.33 BETFAIR

I was going for the fav Getupearly in the 4:35 (well handicapped on hurdles form and probably needed run at Fontwell) but the Christian Williams one Unspeakable has been well backed and money usually talks for that yard. So I'll take that one at 9/2. 1pt win Unspeakable 4:35 Hunt (9/2) P/L: + 6.5pts. Also a few quid on the tricast 1. Unspeakable 2. Getupearly 3. Call Me Arthur @ 81/1 bet365. Outpaced on the last circuit, next time on a more galloping track maybe.

A few thoughts from me. Interesting that champion trainer was Irish last year what does this say? I would suggest that last year v the previous 6 that there has been a decline in class from the British trainers/horses. Can you filter out the Irish horses? We know that Mullins, DeBromhead seem to have all the class horses so if you just followed these when running in Britain what would the results be in comparison to your analysis? in support of what i am suggesting- I notice 21-22 AE 1.02 this was the Blackmore year when she was leading jockey at Cheltenham also the Irish won the GN (Noble Yeats)

2.45 Galway: Realtin Lonrach @ 10/1 E/W (WHill)

Day 219 -£63

1423 Leic Connies Way 10/3 hills

Day 28 -£123 Bryony only got one ride in France today will have a bash 3.53 Auteuil Fortunes melody 14/1 £10 e/w bet365

Even the mighty Hugh Taylor is struggling with 4 losing months in a row

Well that didn’t go to plan - going to be beans on toast all week for me now.

Ekaterina Alexandrova to beat Sofia Kenin at 1.66 with Bet365 Kenin looked really unmotivated against Shnaider, let's see which of her sides will turn up tomorrow...

Got it in end, lol. And Dolphins won, yeah.

Looks like ravens fg has beat me, meh. No luck in NFL, can't get a bean