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RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

RussP

By RussP
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Thanks guys:ok Very pleased with the 'comeback'. Having been stuck on -45pts for the year, with just 2 wins from 32 runners, I've managed to turn it around in less than a week with 70pts profit, taking me back into positive figures, 2 winners, 4 placed and 3 nowhere from 9 runners. It could have easily been better had Secret Witness managed to hold on today and if I could have posted the prices on offer rather than take SP's, we'd be another 80pts better off on the 2 winners alone:ok Let's hope we can keep it going:hope

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RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Thanks all, much appreciate:ok Hope to continue in similar vein today with 3 more bets, from 2 meetings... 2.15 Sandown On the seperate 5f course, this is a Class 3 sprint with 12 runners. Avertor isn't the most convincing of favs, having been raised 2lb for a defeat lto and probably needs it even softer to be seen at best effect. I'm going for the veteran but yet, the in form animal in the race, Cape Royal. From a stable renowned for its sprinters and one that is coming back into form with a good day yesterday, this horse is in super form. Recent form reads 2-3-2-1-1 and looks capable of defying a 4lb raise today. Lto win was in Class 2 and is dropped to Class 3 today so the weights rise shouldn't hold any fears. Amongst those wins has been one against the very progressive Secret Witness who has twice been beaten in a photograph this week. Has a nice draw, 9 of 12, for one that loves nothing better than to blaze a trail. The 3 drawn closer to the rail all like to be held up so this one should grab the rail, set a fast pace and will be difficult to peg back. Not the greatest field in the world so, at 7's, I'll have a bit EW. Cape Royal (7/1 Paddy Power BOG) 2.50 Sandown The 2nd division of the above race, with 12 again facing the starter. I'm going for the same connections to double up here with the progressive Solemn. On the back of a poor run lto against its stable mate Cape Royal, this horse is eased 1lb despite being drawn too wide to feature. Has an excellent strike rate of 7 wins from 26 starts with a further 7 places. All ground comes the same to this horse and has won on a stiff track. Draw is ok so should be able to decide on tactics as the race unfolds. I think this looks a weak race too so I'm surprised that a race with the winning habit is priced so big. Happy to take the EW again for a double for trainer & jockey. Solemn (11/1 Bet365 BOG) 6.30 Kempton 11 runners for this Class 5 handicap over 10f on the AW. I'm going for the horse that's currently 2nd fav and almost looks an EW bet to nothing. I see this one shortening massively through the day and wouldn't be surprised to see it halved in price by the off. Shrewd stable and very keen on the jockey booking so everything in place to go well. Got off the mark lto on turf winning off a lower mark but has also run well on AW off marks similar & higher to this one. Trip looks perfect too, last 3 runs over 10f have finished 4-3-1, compared to 7-7-10-4-5 this term when over other distances. This one looks the jock's best chance of a winner this evening and faces a mad dash from Goodwood to get here in time. If he does, I'd fully expect a winner to be the reward at a shade under 5's. Aurora Sky (9/2 Bet365 BOG)

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RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

2.15 Sandown Cape Royal (7/1 Paddy Power BOG) 2.50 Sandown Solemn (11/1 Bet365 BOG) 6.30 Kempton Aurora Sky (9/2 Bet365 BOG)
First 2 were a shade disappointing and finished out of the money to get us off to a poor start. However, Hughesie did the business aboard Aurora Sky, winning at a SP of 3/1, to give us 7.5pts profits on the day:ok Should be back with a couple of possibles for tomorrow as there are 3 flat meetings to look at.
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RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps I'm going to take 2 more today, both from the South coast... 3.45 Goodwood A Class 4 handicap on this softish ground over 10f, with just the 10 runners. Very open race with the fav an amazing 5's in the size of field. The one I'm taking to land the spoils is the bottom weight, Choral Festival. Has run some mixed races on this going but should be suited being out of Pivotal. Up in class but that means a very low weight today and I see that as an advantage around here. Recent form has been excellent, with last 10 runs seeing a win and 5 places. Is a strong traveller generally, something I like to see on easy ground and, despite hailing from an unfashionable yard, it's one that has seen a couple of winners and places recently. Admittedly a 1lb out of the handicap but has a chance in this company, especially as she's a horse that stays further which may be needed on this going. A big price here, especially when you consider others are going just 8's, so I'm happy to have a bit EW to finish in the 3. Choral Festival (14/1 Coral BOG) 4.20 Goodwood 4 defections here leaves us with 10 for this Class 4, 6f handicap. Despite the field size, we go 6/1 the field which really is quite amazing and indicates the openness of the race. I'm happy to be on one of the market leaders, Victorian Bounty, who has been winless for some time but looks ready to stop the rot today. Stable has had a few winners and originally had 3 declared for this meeting but her other 2 are NR's. Is sending just the 1 here a positive sign? Maybe. Ground will be fine, trip is ideal and is the right grade. Looks really well handicapped and ran well lto back at Chester on softish ground. This is a horse that has won off 86 and finished 2nd off 91, off just 77 (same mark as lto). Last time this horse was ranked in the 70's, results read 2-2-2-1. Likes to race up with the pace, which should be quick, but it's not essential he leads. Should be in the mix and I fancy this one to come home in front today. Victorian Bounty (13/2 William Hill BOG)

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RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Very disappointing today with a couple of losers, never really threatening the judge. Despite that, it's been a pretty solid week, finally getting back into profit and double the number of winners I've had all year. Update on figures: 2010 Staked = 460.00pts Returned = 472.00pts Profit = +12.00pts Yield = +2.6% Bets = 46 Winners = 5 (10.9% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 16 (34.8% s/r) 2007-9 incl Staked = 2260.00pts Returned = 2945.96pts Profit = +685.96pts Yield = +30.4% Bets = 227 Winners = 29 (12.8% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 79 (34.8% s/r) On the week, it's seen 3 winners & 4 more placed from 14 runners. If I could maintain somewhere near a strike rate of over 20% winning and 50% in total placing, it would mean a very healthy finish to an average year. Of the 3 winners, both Sermons Mount & Northern Flyer won at SP 6/1 but were available at much bigger odds (14/1 and 8/1 respectively)....bloody work means I can't get on during the day to post prices. Anyway, away for 2 days with work so uncertain how much I'll be on but here's to another winning week....

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RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps First bets of the week and just the 1 for Monday... 3.30 Brighton 10 runners for a 1m4f, Class 6 handicap. Zelos Diktator will be the very warm fav here but looks an artifically short price on the back on some decent runs, but without winning. That leads me to a very nice EW bet and around the 8/1 mark (take the EP in the morning), Mayfairs Future is the one. Looks poised for a win in handicap company now dropped to just 51 for the first time. I'm also very taken by the positive jockey booking and feel everything's in place for a big run. Started this season back on a mark of 52, one which he's raced off all 5 runs this season, as a 'reward' for his consistency. A very good 4th on his first run back before having no chance from the 1 box at Kempton on the AW nto. Was then 3rd here where looking in need of the extra distance it gets today. Stepped up in trip to 11f for its next run, finding only a Sir Mark hotpot too good, before finding the 3f up in trip too much lto when fading tamely into 10th. Quite a consistent type for the grade with it's only failures being when things contrived against him so the EW looks well worth taking here. Mayfairs Future (c.8/1)

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RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Got a great price on the last one (thanks Kev for putting the price up:ok) but didn't run the way it was expected to. Backed into 9/2!!! Been away for a few days so missed some great racing but back with one tonight on the AW. 8.50 Wolverhampton A 9f Class 5 handicap here on the sand, the field reduced to 11 following 2 NR's. Confined to 3yo's, this could easily go to one of the lesser exposed types and the fav, Snow Magic, is one such sort with only 3 runs on the board. However, this is its AW debut so 9/2 looks a bit tight to be getting involved in. The one I prefer is South African Gold. Only 7 career starts with no wins yet but I expect improvement here. Ignore it's 3 turf runs, this one is clearly better suited to the AW and has bits & pieces of form that indicate a win is just around the corner. Ignoring its AW debut last Nov where 6f was too sharp, this horse has since finished 4-3-3, the first of those back in Dec when finishing really well over 7f where it looked all over in need of these extra 2f. Followed that with a 3rd of 4 over this C&D but the small field didn't suit and the 2 that beat it looked good types. Had 2 runs in May on turf before comeback on AW 17 days ago, a promising run finishing 3rd of 11 over 7f at Lingfield. Stayed on very well that day after being pushed along some way out. Surely would have been vying for the win in another furlong, so this step up in trip will suit. The winner of that race has gone in again so the race looks a solid benchmark. Mark remains unchanged and on the balance of that run, with the horse stripping fitter, a big effort is expected tonight. South African Gold (7/1 Coral BOG)

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Taking 3 more today, after a very busy week at work... 3.40 Ascot The big heritage handicap with an almost maximum field for this 7f straight course, Class 2 race. Redford bids to follow up his Ayr Gold Cup win from last weekend but I'm taking 2 against it today. First up is Sarasota Sunshine from the shrewd Jeremy Noseda yard. Won 6 of last 10, very progressive and has an excellent jockey in Johnny Murtagh on top. Drawn well, I think, but is raised 7lb in the weights. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of late money for this one, at the right end of the weights. Has been withdrawn for some races recently due to soft ground but does boost form on the surface so that might just be a smokescreen. The other is the only horse below Sarasota Sunshine in the weights, Imperial Guest. Stable in red hot form with 3 winners from the last 5 runners, and has excellent track form. On a winning mark, loves big fields, in good form and will appreciate the ground. In honesty, I just don't get this price so will take him at big odds. Sarasota Sunshine (12/1 William Hill BOG) Imperial Guest (22/1 William Hill BOG) 5.30 Haydock 12 for the last race on the card, a 1m Class 4 handicap on soft ground. The key here is the ability to act on the going and we should get some good prices with the fav overrated in my opinion. Again, a price I just don't get so my money is on the bottom one, Wigwam Willie. Has not had its ground this term and looks out of form but mark has dropped markedly despite signs of improvement last twice. Add to that, it's reunited with Paul Mulrennan, whos won twice on this horse. 5 of its 6 wins have come on softer going, off marks of 77, 78, 80, 80 and 85, the most recent being the win off 85 12 months ago. Since starting this season, has dropped in mark from 89 to just 70 today. Only race amongst those this term on softish was 2 starts ago, finishing 3rd in a claimer on good/soft. Probably not soft enough that day but was not given a great ride with Spencer holding it up too far off a slow pace. Ground is key here and, handicapped very dangerously, must hold an amazing chance. Wigwam Willie (12/1 Coral BOG)

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Slightly in profit today with the 3rd place of Imperial Guest, other 2 disappointed. Taking 1 more on the AW tonight... 8.35 Wolverhampton Class 4 5f sprint handicap with 13 likely runners. Many of those are capable of better and are dropping down the weights but I'd prefer to see them in better form. However, the one I'm sweet on is Ivory Silk. May not have shown much in 2 runs back from a 3 month absence but has dropped 4lbs for those runs over unsuitable trips. Basically this horse needs 5f on the AW, simple as. Form with those conditions read 1-1-2-3-2-2-2-8 off marks ranging from 74 to 87. Off 82 tonight. The only disappointment was the 8th but that was a listed event, this is a class 4. Stable's going ok, strong jockey on top and mid draw is perfect to allow it to get a position. Great chance. Ivory Silk (6/1 Ladbrokes BOG)

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RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Been very busy with work so struggling to get on much. Anyway, taking 2 this afternoon. 3.35 Newcastle Heavy ground up north normally favours the low numbers so I'm sticking with the single figures and going with the Kevin Ryan trained Masked Dance. 3yo who has already shown a distinct liking for the underfoot conditions, with a win and 3 places from 5 efforts on soft or heavy against 1 win & 1 place from 7 on other types of ground. Won on its seasonal reappearance on this distance and on similar ground but off 5lb lower. However, Amy Ryan's 3lb claim reduces the impact of the weight rise. The horse has been off the track for over 100 days but the win mentioned above came after an absence of even longer so it's clear this one goes well fresh. Looks certain to lead from the low drawn ones and that's a big plus, especially on this ground. Interesting that the horse it fought out the finish with on its reappearance, Gene Autry, has since been raised 21lb from 76 to 97 and continues to run very well so the form looks rock solid. A performance to match that will be more than enough here so 14's is way too big. Masked Dance, 14/1 Boylesports BOG 5.30 Bath A big field for the final race on the card and I'm staying at the top of the weights for the dual purpose Ocean Transit. Off since June but has gone well after a break so, again, it's not a negative for me. What interests me here is the mark, down 2lb in the weight and today partnered by a very useful 5lb claimer, the net result being it's lowest ever mark whilst by no means being a horse in decline. This grade looks more this horse's class too, winning a handicap at 16/1 back in 2007 but since then, only raced in Class 4 or above until it's last 2 runs, finishing 3rd & 4th at Chepstow off 72 and 71 respectively. Doesn't look the greatest of races and if the young lad on board can get a decent early position, it would be no surprise to see this one go very close as a horse that will have the required stamina to get home here. Ocean Transit, 20/1 Bet365 BOG

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Pleased with a 20/1 winner today in Ocean Transit, just holding off the fav by a nose. First one ran very poorly which was disappointing but that's the chance you take backing on heavy ground. That takes us back into decent profit for the year.:ok Update on figures: 2010 Staked = 540.00pts Returned = 639.50pts Profit =+99.50pts Yield = +18.4% Bets = 54 Winners = 6 (11.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 18 (33.3% s/r) 2007-9 incl Staked = 2260.00pts Returned = 2945.96pts Profit = +685.96pts Yield = +30.4% Bets = 227 Winners = 29 (12.8% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 79 (34.8% s/r)

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RussP

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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Cheers chaps:ok Taking 1 tomorrow too. 4.00 Windsor 10f handicap here on a course that gets some getting used to. I therefore prefer to focus on those that have form round here and it leads me to the top weight Tinshu. 2 wins and 2 2nds from 5 starts on the track is good enough for me and I fancy it to go well yet again, now dropped back in class. Last win was back in May, over C&D, off 2lb lower but was also the last time the horse raced in a Class 4. Record of 4 wins & 4 2nds from 15 starts in Class 4 or below speaks volumes against 1 win, 3 places from 9 starts in higher grades. I'm also pleased that Dane O'Neill is back on top, 3 rides on the horse have yielded 2 wins and a 3rd. The slight doubt is the 88 day absence but I'd be surprised if the horse wasn't in tip top shape with the trainer bidding to keep the horses's incredible track record intact. All ground comes the same to the horse so no worries on that score and its prominent racing style is also very well suited to the track. Looking through its rivals, there's some poor fare here that don't look particularly well handicapped so I'm more than happy to take double figures on this one. Tinshu, 10/1 Bet365 BOG

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