RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

[bowles10]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Good luck Russ, only 22 bets this year, thats some discipline i must admit. Good luck this week mate, i am sure you will be having a few at York

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

Good luck Russ, only 22 bets this year, thats some discipline i must admit. Good luck this week mate, i am sure you will be having a few at York

Cheers mate:ok. Although not changing my strategy, I'm going to try to be a little more flexible and have more bets. I expect my yield will decrease the bets I have but it's all about the end P/L figure. Hope to be going on Thur to York so, yes, a few bets may well be in the offing.

[RussP]

[Kithanga]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

First update on figures this year..... 2010 Staked = 220.00pts Returned = 253.25pts Profit = +33.25pts Yield = +15.1% Bets = 22 Winners = 2 (9.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 8 (36.4% s/r) 2007-9 incl Staked = 2260.00pts Returned = 2945.96pts Profit = +685.96pts Yield = +30.4% Bets = 227 Winners = 29 (12.8% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 79 (34.8% s/r) So, it's been a slow start to 2010 with just 2 winners in Penitent in the Lincoln, and Just Bond in a race at Haydock. A case of what could have been too with Esprit De Midas being touched at 20's by a 50/1 rag!! On a poor run at present, with a winner & a 8/1 2nd sandwiched in between 9 losers. On a current unplaced run of 3 but hope to start to pick it up now. Reviewing the bets, there's been a few that really should never have been taken but I guess that's the constant learning curve. Here's to a new week and hopefully a change in fortunes:ok

You can't argue with the numbers. That's a top performance mate. :clap

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Poor, poor run today. Very disappointed in myself for striking that bet. Anyway, back shortly with 2 bets tomorrow.....

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 2.50 Yarmouth A 7f, Class 5 handicap that looks pretty competitive on paper, and 12 horses do battle. I fancy an outsider for this and will discount the main contenders due to the following reasons: Mishrif - prefer softer, never won handicap, question mark over trip, first time blinkers Harting Hill - better on AW Kingswinford - prefer softer ground Print - may prefer AW Lastkingofscotland - struggle in grade, better in selling company Tevez - struggle off mark This leads me to the selection which is: Mudhish (RPF 11/1) - I like the chances of this one. Has run 5 times at the track and has gone close on 3 occasions. Is one of few in the race that is suited by fast ground and prefers turf to AW. Decent stable, excellent jockey but can be a tad ungenuine, however I feel strong handling is what's needed. Will race up with the pace which is a plus as is it's draw. Races off 67 and it's record on turf racing off marks in the 60's read 2-7-4-2-4. Poor run lto when missing the break on AW, so 2lb ease in the weights is welcomed. Jockey is one of only 2 to win on the horse, and he has a good record when riding for the stable. Has been off the track for 75 days but that's actually a huge plus rather than a negative. Record when absent for less than 30 days reads 1 win, 4 places & 15 unplaced. However, with absences greater than a month, 8 starts in total, record is a total contrast of 1w-5p-2u, form figures of 2-3-7-1-3-2-4-3. Hopefully, with conditions to suit, this horse can finally put its win record right and score a success at a big looking double figure price.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 3.00 Beverley What a nice handicap this looks. 16 runners for this Class 5 handicap over the minimum trip. Generally, higher numbers are preferred so I'll begin by putting a line through those drawn 1-8. Despite being a 5f cavalry charge, there doesn't seem to be an awful lot of pace on here so I'd be looking for a prominent type. Of those drawn 9-16, quick comments would be: Lord Of The Reins - Excellent mark but better on AW and hold up style a negative from the highest draw Noodles Blue Boy - Chance but may need another run or 2 to freshen him up Select Committee - At best later in year and may be 1lb or 2lb too high Baybshambles - Shown nothing so far and not particularly well handicapped King Of Swords - Could go really well but has had enough chances for me Joyeaux - Absence a worry Embra - As Joyeaux This leaves me with: Red Rosanna (RPF 10/1) - Of the higher drawn ones, the only confirmed prominent type and could get the race run to suit here, may even dictate the pace. Things look ideal today, eased in the weights, eased in grade, great draw, prominent racing style, excellent 5lb claimer booked and trainer seems to be coming to the boil nicely. Has shown nothing much in 2 runs this season but, strangely, fell out of the stalls last time so that run can be confidently ignored. Is well entered up this week so is primed to strike. Running off 74 today but, with the claim, is a net 69, it's lowest ever mark. Won twice last term, a 5f handicap at Newmarket off 70 and a Class 4 handicap at Haydock off 74 (with 7lb claimer aboard though). Easy to ignore last 4 runs, either wrong surface, too high a mark, broke badly or outclassed. Back in its grade, off lenient mark and plenty of the other factors in its favour, I think a double figure price is too big here.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Ok, apologies for the absence. I'm going to take one tomorrow night. 8.10 Ripon A really nice looking Class 3 handicap over the straight 6f with 14 runners. I think there's value to be had in this as most of the market leaders have major question marks - Eton Rifles looks a solid fav but 255 days off the track make the 3/1 look a little short, whilst Tajneed has a good chance too but is raised 2lb for a lto defeat. Similar comments regarding up in mark apply to Esprit De Midas, a horse I backed lto, but handicapped out of this I feel. This leads me to the selection and I'm on: Marine Boy (16/1 Paddy Power BOG) - Top weight here and has a couple of poor runs to overcome but has a good chance at a massive price. Is handicapped very well, down to just 94 and dropped in grade too. Highly tried after scooting up on its debut, racing in 5 consecutive Class 1 races, including 2 Group 2's. Since then, has run poorly in a conditions event over 7f, a furlong too far, a good 5th of 17 in a Class2 handicap off 100, followed by an unlucky head 2nd in another conditions race at Newmarket. Has needed its 2 runs back this term but over best trip today, headgear left off, down in grade, off tempting mark, it all leads to a big run. I'm also keen on this trainer when he only sends one to the meeting, especially if the race is a handicap - recent record under those conditions reads 2-3-1-2, the latter 2 being with stable jockey on top as today. Some poor form to cast aside but, in a race with lots of doubts, I fancy this one to run a big race.

[bowles10]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps nice to see you back Russ boy:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps What a cracker in store at the Royal meeting and I'm going to take 2 in the big handicap. 4.25 Ascot 30 runner cavalry charge over the straight mile, this looks a super Class 2 handicap. It looks a wide open race but I've settled on 2, one from either side of the track and will take both to normal EW stakes: Mull of Killough (14/1 Bet365 BOG, 5 places) - Still lightly raced and has good strike rate of 3 from 9 career starts. Was well fancied off this mark for the Lincoln and ran a super race in 3rd when not having the clearest path. Followed that up with a down the field run in the Spring Cup but that was an extremely muddling race and the horse was badly hampered so we can easily draw a line through that. Probably just as important for me was the fact that those 2 runs came slap bang in the middle of an awful winless run for his trainer dating back to September. Finally broke that run in May and the stable now appears to be running into some form, with 4 of its last 11 runners amongst the places. Lto, just 12 days ago at Epsom, the horse ran a creditable 5th in a very strongly run race over 9f. That day, he looked to hate the track and a return to a conventional flatter, straight track will suit. Stayed on really well that day to indicate a big run here is expected. The run at Epsom proved that stamina is no issue in a strongly run race, a big plus in these type of events. Drawn ok and can stay low or middle. Excellent chance in a wide open race. Tryst (14/1 Bet365 BOG, 5 places) - Featherweight here and an excellent big race jockey in the lovely Hayley Turner makes this animal the pick of high drawn horses. Lightly raced with just 6 runs on the clock, 2 wins amongst them. Formerly with Stoute, this one is now trained in France and won its last race comfortably. Very interesting that its trainer brings it here for this race and should be open to any amount of improvement. It's only career disappointment came when at the back end of midfield in the Cambridgeshire where I feel its tardy start coupled with unsuitably fast ground did for this horse. Looks to have been aimed at this and has just come in for some support too so, at a nice EW price, I'm happy to take the chance.

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Well done on Tryst getting a place :clap:clap

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Staying away from the Royal meeting and heading up north for Thursday's bet. 2.45 Ripon Lovely track is Ripon, wish I was there. 13 runners line up for this Class 5 handicap over the straight 5. Hazelrigg is tough to discount but is plenty short enough for a horse that struggles to stick his neck in front whilst La Capriosa is in winning form but is surely better on the sand. With some fancy prices around on Betfair, I've taken the following bet early: Lucky Art (RPF 10/1) - Let's get the negative out of the way first, is drawn 8 which is not that bad but would have preferred a couple of stalls lower. That aside, a massive run is due from this horse. Has a promising 5lb claimer up top and hails from a yard that has not been short of winners this season around the northern tracks. Extremes of ground aren't ideal so the forecast 'good' going will be perfect. Quite surprisingly to me, the horse is dropped 3lb and 1 grade today, always a good combination and a sign that a big run is on the cards. Back down to mark of recent close up runs but the difference this time is the extra 5lb to come off the jockeys back. Looking deeper into his form gives this chance a much better chance that many imagine. Poor on seasonal reappearance but first run can be ignored as can the soft ground. Since then, finished 3rd here over C&D but actually 'won' on its side of the track off todays mark before following it up with a close up 2nd when raised in grade, pulling clear of the 3rd horse home. Next was again another good run when 4th of 9, having looked nailed on for 2nd. Was run out of it late on after trying to chase the classy and very speedy winner. Up 4lb, ran 7th of 13 but easy to dismiss as the horse had the worst of the draw and raced alone up the wrong side of the track. Disappointed a little lto but probably raced too quick. Will find it difficult to grab the lead here and I think that's actually a postivie. Will tuck in just off the lead, 3rd or 4th I guess, and will hope to pick off the leaders late on. This is not an ideal hold up track so its prominent racing style is another plus. Double figures is too big here and I expect a return to winning ways.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Very poor today so onto tomorrow and back at the Royal meet. 5.35 Ascot 32 runner, Class 2, 7f handicap and I'm going to stick with the high numbers so going with: Swift Gift (18/1 Bet365 BOG 5 places) - Drawn 3 off the far rail so no problems with that, and has a cracking record fresh. With absence of 90 days or more, form reads 3-1-3-4-1-2 including the Victoria Cup here. Comes here fresh so that's a positive, goes well at the track, fast ground suits, is a 7f specialist and gets on well with the jock. Ran well in this last year, 3L 7th of 28 when not getting a clear run on ground that wasn't quite fast enough but finished really well. Has a great record too in big field handicaps, form in 16+ runner races of 3rd at 50's, 4th at 16's, 1st at 25's, 11th at 8's (but was 4th of 12 in the group as the field split) and 7th at 14's in this last year. Can go close off this mark and I expect proven big field experience will serve the purpose and see this one home at a decent price.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 4.45 Lingfield Class 3 handicap with 10 runners facing this 10f on the turf track. The 3 expected market leaders Jawaab, Ramona Chase and Kings Masque all have negatives and must be taken on. Jawaab won lto and is up 2lb but I have doubts that it's better over shorter and in Class 4. That makes these conditions unsuitable and the short price worth opposing. Ramona Chase has an awful strike rate, just 1 from 29, and is now raised 2lb for a good run at its favourite track lto, Epsom. Off 83, I just can't see this one being involved. Kings Masque is another running above its grade and is also up 4lb for a lto 2nd. Will need to find a fair bit of improvement to land this. With those 3 discounted, I'm going to be taking: Seeking The Buck (RPF 7/1) - This horse has top weight here and carries 3lb more than its nearest rival. Trainer is in top form, with 3 of his last 5 runners winning, and is his only runner at this meet. Is a cracking horse with a very impressive strike rate, 4 wins & 4 2nds from just 16 turf career runs. Now a 6yo, is still lightly raced and could be open to a bit of improvement. Form is even more impressive at this trip and last 2 runs, both defeats, were at an unsuitable 12f. Started last term with 2 win in handicaps off 80 & 87 (races off 89 here), before a close 2nd nto off this mark. Next came a top run in the John Smiths Cup at York, finishing 4th to the very impressive Sirvino. Rounded off his campaign with a 5th over 12f before being put away for the winter. Started 2010 2 weeks ago at Epsom, finishing midfield but ran well enough there after 10 months off to suggest compensation awaits. Dropped in grade and eased 1lb for this run, I feel this horse is a class above his opponents. Provided the horse doesn't 'bounce', it will go very close, a certainty for a place but no surprise if it dots up here.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Had a lot of a break but back again. Will try to keep it going this time! Refreshed after doing a bit more reading and a couple of weeks holiday. Fancy one tonight in: 7.10 Windsor With 1 NR declared, we're left with 11 here for this Class 4 handicap over 1m. 4 horses dominate the market but I'm going to oppose them all. Play It Again Sam is in decent nick but all its wins have been all the way wins and I cannot see an uncontested lead for this one off a mark looking a shade high. Kavachi is a hold up type who will the fast pace it needs. However, it's not the most consistent and the time to catch the horse was lto off 5lb lower, I don't feel it will follow up tonight. Autumn Riches is very lightly raced and hails from dangerous connections with top jock on. At 5's though, it looks a little too short in the market as it could go either way. Mingun Bell is the last of the 4 and is the subject of a gamble but isn't the most progressive. Dropped to a lowly mark now and would have been of interest at the early prices but not any more. The one I'm very interested in, mainly from a value perspective, is: Compton Blue (20/1 William Hill) - A Hannon/Hughes horse at Windsor going off at 20's? Add to that it is stables 2nd string in the betting but with stable jockey taking the ride, I'm just even more confused. Nobody rides the course better than Hughesie and the horse is also a C&D winner. Has a win and a 2nd from 2 handicap starts here, both under this jock, make this an odd price. The key to this horse is the jockey, with 3 wins, a 2nd and a 4th from just 5 tries in 8f handicaps. With other jocks up top over the same trip in handicaps, the form reads 0 wins or places from 4 starts, finishing mre than 5L back in each of those. Is just 1lb above last winning mark, 4 starts ago, but since then has gone of the boil. Wouldn't surprise me either if this easier ground suits, given its wins on good ground. The ground might also hinder the chances of the genuine hold up types, whilst the battle for the lead could affect the trailblazers. This one likes to tuck in just behind the leaders and that could be ideal here. Clearly there are negatives, reflected in the price, but there's more than enough to suggest a big, big run.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Update on figures: 2010 Staked = 320.00pts Returned = 275.75pts Profit = -44.25pts Yield = -13.8% Bets = 32 Winners = 2 (6.3% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 9 (28.1% s/r) 2007-9 incl Staked = 2260.00pts Returned = 2945.96pts Profit = +685.96pts Yield = +30.4% Bets = 227 Winners = 29 (12.8% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 79 (34.8% s/r) Extremely disappointed, not only in the results but also in the lack of continuity of the thread. I'm finished with saying 'lets get back on track', I'd rather let my posting do the talking. What I have found though is that the old selection methods no longer work. It's about adopting new ideas & approachs and that's what I'm trying to do. I've been having a good trawl through the form lately and feel that things have definitely changed. With more information than ever available to us punters, it's proving difficult to find an edge and it's probably wise to follow the money. Days of 30-40% yields are gone and I've decided to adopt the more bets, lower yield approach. Included in those bets will be quite a few shorter in price than I'm used to taking. It's definitely not the normal RussP way but you have to move with the times and if it takes some bets are 4/1 EW, for example, to get back into profit, then that's what I'll do. Bets to follow shortly for Monday, for which there's 2.

[StuSimmy]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Good luck Russ and nice to see you are staying positive about it all :ok I'm sure things will pick up for you in the near future.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 2 bets for Monday and 1 from each track... 5.10 Bath Back to the low grade fare and a 1m4f, 14 runner, Class 6 handicap. The one I'm taking here is Spinning Waters, from the Eve Johnson Houghton yard. This one has a fantastic chance to me, a very consistent type although people are saying this one is one paced. First time visor replaces the blinkers and I'm sure connections are hoping that the change of headgear has a positive effect. Track suits, especially the uphill finish, and this one can capitalise off its rapidly falling mark. Won its first handicap back at the beginning of 2009, off a mark of 63 but races off just 46. Last 5 runs have all resulted in 3rd place, off marks of 50 3 times, 49 and 47. Dropped a further 1lb today. Is holding its form well and may just need a little bit of luck to resume winning ways. Stable is in cracking form too, which might do the trick, but you need to delve deeper into recent runs to see just how well the stable's runners are doing. In the last week, she's sent out 17 runners and has had 5 winners, 2 2nd's and a 3rd. More interesting is the record of the fancied runners (ie, those priced under 10/1), the results for those read 1-1-1-1-2-1. Of the other at bigger prices, she's had a 50/1 3rd under this jockey and a 16/1 2nd, failing by a head. That's some going indeed and I'm extremely hopeful that this one can add to the superb stable form. Spinning Waters (8/1 RPF)

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Good Luck for tomorrow Russ

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps And the other bet... 5.20 Newcastle Unsurprisingly, 1 NR reduces this to 15 runners so just the 3 places paid. A Class 6, 7f handicap here at Gosforth Park and I want to be on something drawn high, racing just in behind the leaders. This leads me to Northern Flyer, a horse holding its form reasonably well without getting its head in front. Drawn 4 off the rail, the horse is drawn really well and today has it's ideal trip of 7f having been campaigned all too often over 8f this season. All too often, this horse has been in Class 5 events but is, without doubt, better suited to this grade. So, in summary, both trip and class look perfect, the same conditions as its only win last summer off 57. Today's mark is just 55. Only once since has the horse ran over 7f in this grade, that was 2 starts ago at Catterick where a poor draw forced the horse to race wide, so its 1.5L 4th of 14 was a creditable effort. Trainer's in form too, with quite a few going in over the last couple of weeks whilst jockey remains excellent value for his 5lb claim. No surprise to see this one grab the rail as it's not beyond the realms that the 3 drawn closer to the rail will be held up. If this 5lb apprentice can tack over early, I feel anything around 8/1 will look a massive price & expect this one to add to its career tally of just 1 win. Northern Flyer (8/1 RPF)

[divot2583]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps :clap Excellent Russ

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Great start back Russ :clap:clap:clap

[Boulder5111]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Well done Russ :ok Keep doing what you're doing and days like this will become commonplace again :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Thanks guys, your comments are much appreciated:ok Spinning Waters continued it's run of 3rd places, finishing in the money again, at 4's. Northern Flyer, meanwhile, ran a great race and won well at 6's, to give us almost 40pts profit today. As I could only get on last night, SP's were taken but, for anyone who got on early, both horses were available at a good couple of points bigger. Very happy, will be back later for 1 bet tomorrow.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Sole bet for tomorrow... 3.55 Lingfield Straight course handicap over 7f with 16 currently standing their ground. A track bias toward the high numbers exists here and this is one of the considerations I made in selecting this horse. Drawn 4 off the rail, it has a nice draw and should be able to track the leader. I feel everything is in place for a big run today, good or better ground is ideal, a 2lb drop in the weights is a bonus now running off a mark just 2lb higher than last winning mark. Progressive last season with form figures of 3-1-1-2-2-1-5, mark raising from 65 to just 76 as the wins were all by narrow margins. Since the start of this season, has dropped 4lb in the face of some average efforts, but certainly has had excuses and hasn't been beaten far either. First run back was encouraging as it had its fitness to prove and it fared best of those held up, a comment that was applicable on its 2nd run where the 1-2 filled those positions throughout off a very steady pace. Disappointed lto but did get upset in the stalls and that's probably enough to dismiss that rare poor effort. Last win was the only time the horse has tackled 7f, and tomorrow it'll bid to maintain the 100% record over the trip. Certainly looks like the extra furlong will suit having looked like being outpaced a couple of times over a furlong less. Very open race but the draw could put paid to many chances here, making it interesting that the 3 market leaders are drawn 5, 7 and 8. A horse with form, drawn 4 from the rail being 16/1 is much too big for me and I'm happy to take the EW here. Hand Painted (16/1 Paddy Power BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Well done today mate, have to say Hand Painted is one I have backed several times before, not even looked at the cards for tomorrow yet but could be a possible bet for me as well and thats a very nice write up there.

[fintron]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps :clap

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Cheers guys. Poor run though today, never really got into it and maybe the draw bias wasn't as important with the ground turning against us. Lots of NR's too. Onto Wednesday and I'm taking 2 bets in the same race... 5.20 Doncaster Big field of 21 for this Class 4 handicap over the minimum trip. Ground has turned to the soft side of good. Normally thought to be a draw bias towards the high numbers, I'm going to ignore that tomorrow on this ground and follow the pace. I expect the lead to be held by Luscivious in stall 9 and I'm taking EW bets, each drawn within 2 of that horse. The first is Invincible Lad, ridden by the champ in waiting. Eased in the weights and in grade, conditions look ideal. Won't be inconvenienced by the going, this horse is well suited by Southwell, a track favouring those that like a bit of cut. Has run well in this race before, 6th last year but a close up 9th on soft ground the year before. The horse also won't mind the big field, has never finished more than 2.5L back when in 20 runner plus fields, all of which have been on easy going. It's the only runner the stable has at the meeting so very interested with the jockey booking they've managed to secure. Should go well. The second one I'm keeping on side is Indian Trail, a veteran now but a horse that cannot be ignored in big fields where a fast pace is guaranteed. Trainer & jockey combo must be feared, especially in sprint handicaps, and interesting that the stable only feels the need to go with 1 runner, he's usually triple handed in events like this. Another eased 1lb in the weights and it's pretty uncommon to be dropped into this grade. Ground will be fine and this is the lowest mark the horse has encountered for 7 years! Loves big fields and runs in the last 2 seasons when facing over 16 runners read 1-5-5-4-0-0-5-5-8-5, not bad form at all. When you consider the win was off 82, the next 5 off 88, followed by 86, 85, 85 and 81, then todays mark of 80 looks sorely tempting. That last run, at Goodwood, the horse finished better than anything so is clearly capable of getting its nose in front soon. I'm disappointed the race hasn't yet been priced up but suggest taking anything you can get in double figures on both of them. Invincible Lad (RPF 12/1) Indian Trail (RPF 7/1)

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Taken the prices at VC as follows: Invincible Lad, 10/1 BOG Indian Trail, 14/1 BOG

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Invincible Lad was a never nearer 6th, whilst Indian Trail grabbed 3rd at a generous looking 16/1. At the usual 5pts EW, that's a 5pt profit today. Moving onto Thursday and there's 4 bets I'm taking. Yes, a whole 4!!! They come from 2 meetings... 4.35 Bath 16 line up for this Class 6, 6f handicap and an open looking event. I'm interested in one that's a maiden after 24 attempts. Not exactly the most sparkling credentials but delving deeper into the form makes any double figure price look big. Has 9 2nd places to its name will gives the form a more solid look and in the 13 races he's contested in the last 12 months, has only twice finished outside the top 4, albeit 1 of those occasions was lto. Valid excuses though are that one occasion was on its seasonal reappearance where it clearly needed the run, whilst didn't get the best run lto, race was held at a notoriously different track, Epsom, and it was uncharacteristically held up which makes it easy to overlook the form. Drawn in 1 making it easy for this front runner to grab the rail and the only threat I can see to the lead is the horse in 3. In this grade, consistency is key so I make 10/1 plus on this to at least grab a place, a massive price. Sermons Mount (RPF 10/1) 5.05 Bath Over the minimum trip, 11 go to post for another Class 6 handicap. I'm plumping for another consistent type, a horse in the first 3 on 14 of its 28 career starts, it makes the expected double figure price too big. Only 1lb higher than last win, which was 3 starts ago, the horse has ran ok on 2 subsequent starts. Has a 5lb claimer on top too which makes its mark look appealing. Same jockey was on board 2 starts ago where the horse was 3rd at Windsor off same mark but that day I felt it was the unlucky horse in the race. Was drawn on the wrong side and didn't have a clear run, yet pulled clear of the rest. That was also in a Class 5 but is dropped in grade today. Is well entered up over the next week suggesting a big run is expected and I fancy the horse to add to its winning tally here. Imaginary Diva (RPF 9/1) 5.35 Bath Yet another Class 6, this time with 15 runners over a mile. This time I'm sticking with one of the more fancied runners from the foot of the handicap. A lightly raced 3yo with just 9 runs under its belt, she carries just 8st3, with the 5lb jockey claim. Has already shown very consistent form and mainly in better races than this. Won on its handicap debut at 25/1 off a lowly mark but form since then has proved it was no fluke. Was stepped up to 10f and Class 5 company finishing 2nd twice in 3 starts. Since then, has finished 3rd twice, once off 54 in this grade, whereas lto was in Class 5 over 1lb higher than today. A further 5lb in the shape of the jockey could prove crucial, low draw looks ideal and the stiff finish here should be perfect for a horse that stays on very well. Eye Of Eternity (RPF 11/2) 5.25 Doncaster 6f cavalry charge in the Class 3 handicap, 21 going to battle. I'm on the consistent, recently raced Secret Witness who finished a very unlucky quarter length 2nd to Hitchens on Sunday in a Class 2 at York. Another horse that is very rarely out of the frame and is sure to give its running. I'll ignore its 2 runs at the unsuitable downhill tracks of Epsom & Goodwood this term. Casting those aside, form figures read 4-1-3-2-2-2-2-2, the last 2 of which were off this mark. In all those starts, has finished within 2L of the winner so looks sure to go well again. Has right trip, is in correct grade and still looks to be on a winning mark so at 10's, I'm happy to take the EW odds on offer. Secret Witness (10/1 VCBet BOG)