RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 2.30 Kempton - Kucharova (14/1 Bet365 BOG) 11 runners now for this 10f, Class 6 handicap and, whilst I originally liked the top weight, I think the price has gone now so am taking one further down. Kucharova is a lightly raced type that looks likely to be suited to the step up to 10f. In its first 6 races in Ireland, it showed moderate ability but then, having dropped 6lb in the weights, ran a cracker last time out at Lingfield, finishing a close enough 3rd of 7 at odds of 33/1. Ran a very good race there, with a promising Topspeed figure and looked to me to be travelling best of all 2f out. I'm not totally convinced by the run against the inside rail so it's possible the run can be upgraded somewhat. Certainly didn't fade, in fact the horse kept on pretty well so I'm very hopeful that the step up in trip will be ideal. What I'm surprised at is the further easing of mark, down 1lb now to a lowly looking 56. Stable's only runner on the card and, in a wide open event, 14's looks too big.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 4.30 Kempton - Opus Maximus (10/1 Bet365 BOG) 12 runners for a decent looking Class 4 handicap over the round mile. I really am not totally convinced by the market leaders so will take a popular AW horse in Opus Maximus. Has some very good form to its name and has been campaigned quite heavily, winning 4 starts ago off 4lb lower. Since then, has not been as good but in my opinion, that's down to some terrible rides where Hayley Turner has made her move far too late. Replaced today by a 5lb claimer which is significant on 2 counts; firstly, its mark now looks competitive off a net 74 and secondly, the jockey will be expected to make its move earlier. Add to that the longer straight at Kempton should suit this fast finishing sort and I think we have plenty in place for a big run. Despite no win yet here, the horse is suited by the track and should get a decent pace to tack onto. Has a good strike rate, goes well in the grade and has enough promising Topspeed figures to suggest the horse will be bang there at the finish. Nice EW shot.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps In absolutely terrible form at present, but need to keep ploughing away so here goes with 1 for tomorrow. 4.30 Kempton 13 runners in this Class 6, 1m handicap and, as is often the case these days, a very open heat with multiple chances. There is one, however, that catches my eye at a longish price. Isdaal (10/1 Bet365 BOG) - It's surely only a matter of time before this lightly raced 5yo gets off the mark. Continues to drop in the weights despite some promising efforts and I'm convinced that this lowly mark of just 56 should see Isdaal break its duck. Since switching to the AW, Isdaal has run 4 times, each time either showing promise or being marked down as unlucky yet a further 2lb in mark has been the result between it's last run & this. First time up on the AW, off 62 over this C&D, the horse finished 6th of 12 and would have finished closer had it not been blocked off at a crucial point. That was also the case on its penultimate start when looking all over the winner but was again heavily checked into the straight. That was off 58. In between that run was a promising effort at Wolverhampton but, yet again, didn't get the clearest of runs and the slow pace didn't help this hold up type. Last run, 4 weeks ago, was a shocker. Claimer gave the horse a poor ride, sitting off the back of the pack with a slow pace, meant we knew our fate early doors. That was over 10f but is brought back to a more suitable trip of 1m today. Even then, the horse stayed on wide & late to grab 5th. We're pretty much guaranteed of a fast pace, the horse has a good draw in 3 as well as having a top jockey on board. All that coupled with a further ease in the weights and now dropped to 0-60 company for the first time, should give us a very big chance granted luck in running.

[BillyHills]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Good luck mate:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Now Cheltenham is over, it's all gearing up to the Lincoln in 2 weeks time. Before that though, we have a big meeting on the sand next week. In a bid to 'get my eye in', I'm starting now & taking one tonight under the lights. 8.20 Wolverhampton The most competitive race of the night, a 7f Class 5 handicap with 11 runners left to go to post. Trappy event and I'd look to oppose the market leaders here. I did originally look at Smalljohn as a horse that could bounce back but there's been stupid amounts of money for it, now the 4/1 jolly. I'd want at least double those odds. 3 of those opposed lto with Bahamian Lad seeing off Hawk Moth, whilst Chookie Avon was back in 6th. The form of that looks particularly suspect to me, with the front 2 suited by the way the race was run and the fact that they finished pretty bunched up at this track. Greenhead High is in great form but would be more of a proposition over shorter and on the Fibresand. Will try to lead but I see this one being swallowed up in the straight whilst Wigrams Turn does look a danger but I just think its mark is going in the wrong direction to be considered a strong betting proposition. This leads me to a double figured price bet. Yankee Storm (14/1 BetVictor BOG) - Top weight here but looks a real danger on all known form. There's still plenty to convince me on recent form even though we must ignore lto's no show at Kempton. I think the horse went off a little too quick that day. Previous to that, it was a very unlucky loser indeed when getting no sort of run 1f out. Was full of running that day and surely would have won comfortably. Despite that, this horse gets in here off 2lb lower today. Has had only 3 runs back after an absence so should certainly be fit enough and is entered up twice this week, a sure sign the horse is ready to strike. Step back up in trip is, for me, a real positive and that's confirmed by this horse's performances in 7f handicaps on the AW in this grade. In the last 2 years, form with the aforementioned criteria, reads 7-1-1-3-3-4. The other thing to interest me is its mark. With the jockey taking 3lb off, the horse effectively gets in here off 67. In it's last 18 AW starts, the horse has twice raced off a mark this low, winning both times off marks of 67. 5 more races in the 60's (ie, 68 or 69) have seen form of 2-3-2-7-0, with the 7th place finish the race where the horse was badly hampered. Off the other 11 races, the horse was in the money on 4 of those occasions. A real consistent type who loves going left handed on the sand, should be suited by the additional distance and races at its favourite track. To me, all is in place for a very big run. My one concern is the drift on the exchanges but I wouldn't be surprised to see a flood of money come for it later on. Great EW shot.