RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers Kev:ok. Now the prices are up, I'm going to take 2 more in the later handicaps. 4.50 Doncaster Class 4 handicap with 11 runners going to post, for this 1m2f race. Quite a few of these have question marks surrounding them so I think there's EW value to be had here. The one I'm taking a chance on here is: Opera Prince (10/1 Betfred BOG) - The only horse that the trainer sends here from her base on the south coast and not without a chance with an eyecatching jockey booking. Looks really well in on the pick of its form but lost its way a little last season. Now back on a reasonable mark and, in my opinion, with soft ground in its favour, I really expect this one to go well today. A 5yo now, this horse has 3 wins from its 14 turf starts, all in this grade or lower off marks of 73, 76 and 84. Gets in here today off 77. Won its only start on soft ground, when readily scoring at Sandown. It seems to me that this horse is much better when fresh so it's lack of a recent run doesn't concern me. The long straight here at Donny will sort this strong travelling sort and it would not be surprise to see this horse backed right in. I'm happy to be on EW at a double figure price.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 5.55 Doncaster With the fav just taken out, this has opened up even more. 10 runners now for this Class 4 handicap over 10f, and a race there for the taking. The fav is opposable having only won a maiden whilst the 2nd fav is raise 3lb for losing lto. Therefore, I'm going in on: Veiled Applause (7/1 William Hill BOG) - Most of these like to race up with the pace and I'm confident this will be set up for a hold up horse. My selection fits the bill. This is a horse I like that goes well on the ground and is pretty much a standing dish at this meeting. Has placed in this race in each of the last 2 seasons, and I expect that trend to continue, hopefully 3rd time lucky with a win! Last season when 4th of 19, it raced off 83 - has just 78 today and a promising 7lb claimer too. Only ever raced once off actual soft ground when 2nd to Best Prospect in this 2 years ago, but goes well on good to soft too. Without doubt 10f is its best trip and likes to be held up for a run. In the last 2 seasons, has only raced off marks in the 70's over this trip 5 times from its 28 runs. Form of those runs reads 2-1-1-3-4. 4 starts here and placed each time so fully expect another big run today. Is race fit too having had a spin on the AW 2 weeks ago, only 3 other rivals can claim that. Price will continue to shorten, I believe, so I'm happy with 7's on a horse that looks certain to place with conditions to suit.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 2.00 Doncaster With my selection Elliptical now declared a NR, I'll take the other one I was considering for the EW money: Conry (16/1 Bet365 BOG) - Has the ideal profile, being a progressive 4yo stepping up in grade. Did well last season, winning 3 mainly on easy ground. Ground will suit here, mark is steadily rising but this horse has bundles of improvement and is drawn well to get a good toe from the leaders. Probably better at 7f but if it settles, I fancy it will have the required pace on this going to come through and land this contest. Was 2nd lto but missed the kick so deserves lots of credit. Only try at 8f, failed to settle & pulled hard so looks a non stayer. I don't believe that's the case and am very hopeful of a big run.

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Doctor Crane withdrawn so that's a loser but sure to beat the price on the fav, Penitent who is now into 11/4. There's another I fancy so am going to add one more to my Lincoln string. 3.10 Doncaster In addition to Penitent running for me at 5's, I'm going to add: Prime Exhibit (12/1 Stan James BOG) - Gets in here off bottom weight with a mark of 91 and the jockey also takes off a further 3lb. Looks really well handicapped and has a super draw in 5, just 4 away from the fav and near to the pace. Now a 5yo but still very lightly raced with only 9 career starts to its credit. Will relish the ground, is versatile with regards to race position and is a very strong traveller, key in this race on this going. Ran well in its prep 2 weeks ago over an inadequate 6f on the AW, staying on really well after getting no sort of run. That will have put the horse spot on for this. Last term, recorded figures of 4-1-3-2, and is probably best judged on its 2nd in a Class 2 at Salisbury splitting a pair of useful types, one which has gone on to land a Listed contest & the other a Class 2 handicap off 102. Should love the fast pace it will get here and no surprise to see this start at single figures. The one most likely to upset the hot fav.

1st and 2nd :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap

[bowles10]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) well done in the Lincoln mate, thought xtraterrestial would get that placing and was in 1st 4 until the line and had to settle for 5th. Think Prime Exhibit will definitely win 1 this season

[jtw1]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Well done RUSS :clap

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

5.55 Doncaster With the fav just taken out, this has opened up even more. 10 runners now for this Class 4 handicap over 10f, and a race there for the taking. The fav is opposable having only won a maiden whilst the 2nd fav is raise 3lb for losing lto. Therefore, I'm going in on: Veiled Applause (7/1 William Hill BOG) - Most of these like to race up with the pace and I'm confident this will be set up for a hold up horse. My selection fits the bill. This is a horse I like that goes well on the ground and is pretty much a standing dish at this meeting. Has placed in this race in each of the last 2 seasons, and I expect that trend to continue, hopefully 3rd time lucky with a win! Last season when 4th of 19, it raced off 83 - has just 78 today and a promising 7lb claimer too. Only ever raced once off actual soft ground when 2nd to Best Prospect in this 2 years ago, but goes well on good to soft too. Without doubt 10f is its best trip and likes to be held up for a run. In the last 2 seasons, has only raced off marks in the 70's over this trip 5 times from its 28 runs. Form of those runs reads 2-1-1-3-4. 4 starts here and placed each time so fully expect another big run today. Is race fit too having had a spin on the AW 2 weeks ago, only 3 other rivals can claim that. Price will continue to shorten, I believe, so I'm happy with 7's on a horse that looks certain to place with conditions to suit.

I think this was unlucky mate, traded at 1.3 in running, still it's a profit :clap

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers Kev, looked all over the winner 2f out but, to be fair, Rosbay came with a cracking run. I've learnt a lot today. Convinced myself to give up on the AW and maybe adopt a fresh approach to this come the winter months. Also very disappointed with 2 bets I had. Conry was a reaction to Elliptical being a non runner, I shouldn't have played the race so apologies to anyone that followed. The other lesson was backing a horse that hadn't shown any form for well over a year in the hope that the stable was sending only the one horse to the track. Having said that, delighted with the Lincoln. Penitent seemed to me the best horse in the race and I didn't let it put me off backing it, something I would have done in the past, whilst I talked myself into a horse that wasn't, on jockey bookings, the stables 1st string in Prime Exhibit. Veiled Applause also looked the winner so another solid bet. All in all, 5 runners today with a win, 2 places & 2 out of the money. Also got the lost stakes on Doctor Crane to factor in. With Barack placing in the Irish Lincoln last Sunday, it's been a promising start to the turf with over half the runners providing a return:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 2 big field handicaps for me to concentrate on today and I'm going to play in both, with big priced horses. 3.00 Doncaster A 19 runner, Class 4 handicap over the straight 7f. Having looked through all the runners, the front 5 or 6 looks pretty difficult to oppose here, although I can't be having the Hills charge at a stupid price having not achieved that much on the track. Similarly, the Fahey & O'Reilly horses look a little short so preference is for: Dubai Dynamo (10/1 Ladbrokes BOG) - It was proven yesterday that the draw isn't crucial but more where the pace is. There are plenty of runners who like to race prominently drawn high although no confirmed front runner. As long as one of them takes it on, I'm happy with the draw, berthed 15. No issues with regards to fitness having been campaigned successfully on the AW and gets in here off a lenient mark of 84. Not been this low since 2007 so capable of exploiting its current handicap. The other key thing of note is that, other than its handicap debut 3 years ago, this horse has never raced in a grade so low. Another pointer maybe? Ground is no problem and, looking back through form and comments, it's expected that good to soft could be it's ideal. Has won here and 7f is its trip, although raced a lot at 6f recently. Won 2 starts ago on the AW off 89, hosing up by over 3L, before finding 6f too sharp nto off 95. Back down to 84 now and is equally effective on turf, winning 2 and placing in 2 of its 9 career starts. Expected a much shorter price but the presence of the Hills & Fahey runners, as well as the Fallon horse has pushed this out to a very backable price.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 4.10 Doncaster 18 left in this Class 2 handicap, again over the straight track but just 6f this time. Jonny Mudball could well be the handicap blot and blaze a trail from a low draw but is very lightly raced and its inexperience could find it out, whilst Kaldoun Kingdom may struggle off this mark. The one for me at a really big price is: Courageous (22/1 VC Bet BOG) - Stupid price and is as short as 12's elsewhere. This horse is a very hard puller and struggles to settle in its race. Has been campaigned exclusively over 7f and 1m, so the drop to 6f should help the race. In addition, it is drawn 1 away from the trailblazing fav so I expect the horse to settle much better. If it does, the horse will go close. Still lightly raced so bundles of improvement left and is dropping to a really competitive mark, down another 3lb to 95. Ground will be perfect too and jock rides it for the first time since 2nd here to Secrecy, 2 years ago. That's a positive. This horse has been campaigned in some top races, including a decent 5th in the RP Trophy behind Crowded House. Only its 2nd ever handicap and, in my opinion, it's easiest assignment to date. Admittedly, we are banking on a bit of a return to form but lots in its favour - jockey, draw, pace in race, trip, handicap mark and ground. In a race where only 1 or 2 hold solid claims, this horse is vastly overpriced to produce an upset.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Broke even today. Dubai Dynamo ran a very nice race, finishing 3rd at 12/1. Actually got bumped early on in the race but not sure it made much of a difference. Courageous ran well until the last 1.5f, showing up well and travelling quite sweetly, settling better. Faded tamely though so is one to stay away from until showing more at the business end. Overall, quite happy with the start to the turf flat season.

[Kithanga]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Yep, good start Russ, just one of those placed animals winning would have put you well in front at the prices. Enjoyed reading the write ups and reasoning. K

[kevshat]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Overall' date=' quite happy with the start to the turf flat season.[/quote'] Me too. Signs are it's going to be a very lucrative 6 months :nana.

[StuSimmy]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) I thought Dubai Dynamo was going to win coming into the final furlong, was travelling very well, did notice the bump near the start of the race as well but also not sure if it would have made any difference.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Quick note to self regarding the upcoming flat season & things for consideration: Weights: Be wary of handicaps where all runners are weighted very closely. This indicates its competitiveness. Runners: Where possible, concentrate on 16+ runners as place element is enhanced. Facts: There is no room for guesswork. Do not back a ‘fancy’. Comparisons: Look to see how well treated each horse is in isolation. Do not compare Horse A versus Horse B. Headgear: First time blinkers / visors are not the advantage it is considered to be. However, do look at horses reverting to headgear having previously shown good form. Conditions race form: Ignore conditions race form, it is suspect. Weak favourites: Look for a weak favourite to oppose. This can come in many guises, similar to reasons for backing a horse. However, I do like to take on horses up in mark and grade. Race type: Only back in all-age handicaps, with a minimum of 8 runners. Race distance: Must have shown form over the distance or, at least, expected to be suited by the trip. In big handicaps where a strong pace is expected, form over further can be an advantage. Going: Has won or run well on the ground or, at least, expected to be suited on it. Handicap mark: Can the horse win off today’s mark? Look for something either dropped in mark or back to its last winning mark. Suggestion is to discount anything more than 15lb off top weight as the class difference may be too much, but make a greater provision in the bigger, more valuable handicaps. A rule of thumb could be to only consider the top 5 or 6 horses in the weights but, in the big heritage handicaps, look at those at the foot of the weights that won lto but are raised 3lb or less, especially if they have form over further. Class of race: Horse has either won in this class or shown some form in it. A horse winning its last 2 in a Class 6 handicap may be a short price next time out, but will struggle in a Class 4 race. Also consider which course the form is on (ie, a Class 3 at Newmarket could be completely different to a Class 3 at Catterick). Horses dropping in class have the best win ratio. Current form: Has shown form on its most recent starts or seems to be coming to hand. Do not go looking for excuses that don’t exist for its recent poor efforts. However, do look for valid excuses such as draw or shape of the race. Fitness: Anything without a run in the last 30 days must have question marks over it, unless it has proven form when fresh. Also, consider those that are having their 2nd or 3rd run back from an absence, could it be that they are ready to strike? Draw: Any horse, irrespective of form, will not win from a poor draw. Do not back purely on the draw; you must consider its style of racing too. When analyzing past form, always take into account the draw. Pace of the race: Is the horse drawn near the pace? If there is lots of pace, the race may favour a hold up performer, whilst no pace should favour those with a prominent racing style. Race shape: Will the race be run to suit? Narrow down whether front runners or hold up types are favoured by the course and distance. Generally favour prominent racers unless the race looks certain to be set up for a finisher, as prominent racers have a better win ratio than hold up types. Fast finishing horses flatter to deceive, be wary of this. Consider this when analyzing recent form. Course: Will the horse act on the track? Does the course suit its style of running? Trainer: Is the trainer in form? Jockey: Does the jockey get on with the horse? Is the jockey booking significant? Has the horse been ridden by a apprentice and now has top jockey on board? Similarly, has it been ridden by a run of the mill jockey but now replaced by a top claimer? Age: 5yo are generally the best betting proposition for the first half of the flat season. 3yo’s are to be avoided until July, whilst 4yo’s must be questioned if backing before July: personally, I like to avoid 3yo’s at all times as they are in different stages of maturity and consistency. Always consider whether the older horses are on the downgrade. Speed figures: Check RP Topspeed. If that figure equals or is higher than its handicap mark, that indicates a good performance in a truly run race. Do not discount horses with good, consistent, recent Topspeed figures. Horses for courses: Course form is usually considered important at Ascot, Beverley, Brighton, Carlisle, Catterick, Chester, Epsom, Goodwood, Lingfield, Newcastle, Newmarket, Pontefract, Salisbury & Windsor

[bowles10]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) a good insight there russ and a good read funnily enough i had a good read through my last years results and the handicap mark is the one i use a lot especially when showing form at that mark or higher :ok

[palaceman]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Terrific stuff, Russ. I agree with virtually all of that. There are a few things that may be open to debate, but then that is what makes racing what it is. One point I would slightly question (and I appreciate this is a big issue with you) I think you are a being a tad dogmatic about the draw. Rather than "Any horse, irrespective of form, will not win from a poor draw," I would prefer to say "might struggle to win from a poor draw" Much depends on the definition of "poor". On some courses, for example, whilst a high draw might have a clear advantage, there are still many examples of horses drawn with a low number winning. Is a low number considered "poor" on such a course or just "disadvantageous"? Also the going can, sometimes, have a significant effect. On occasions I have seen it nullify the seeming advantage of the draw altogether. So whilst I understand the general point you are making, I'm not sure the issue is entirely straightforward.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Thanks guys for the feedback:ok Palaceman, you're probably right about the draw. I was maybe a bit harsh on the wording but the draw is one factor I use to whittle down the runners to a more manageable number. Having said that, I do consider it's other credentials. If a horse looks so 'well in' that it will win on the bridle, I won't dismiss it. Although, I'd prefer to bypass the race and look for an opportunity further down the line. The other thing about the draw is, as you comment on, the difference between 'poor' and disadvantageous'. I don't easily discount on the draw and, in straight track races, pace is just as important if not more so. Look at Donny last week. Anyway, thanks again & cheers for the comments:ok I'm away now for a week with the family so will be back a week on Tue/Wed.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 2 handicaps that catch the eye, both at Beverley. As stated in the daily thread, I just can't get involved in the big sprint so having 2 bets in the 1 race in the round course handicap. 3.45 Beverley 15 runners heading to the start for this 1m2f handicap, Class 5 0-70. Two things jumped out at me when looking at this race, making me keen to get involved; firstly, there is an abundance of pace in the race and secondly, I’m keen to take on both the favourites. In an effort to narrow the field down, I’m striking through all those prominent types, this gets rid of 2/3rds of the field but still leaves us with the 2 market leaders. Those to go are Green Passion, Brockfield, All Guns Firing, Mister Fizzbomb, Gulf Coast, Boa, Bollin Freddie, Active Asset, Kings Counsel and Fitzwarren. This is not to say that one of the above can’t win but that I feel their chances will be better suited in a slower run race. The rest are on the shortlist of 5; next to go are the 2 market leaders, Zaplamation and Blue Spinnaker. The former is a winner without a penalty but does have a wide draw and I think 10f on this stiff track with a fast pace might just stretch his stamina, whilst the latter is a veteran in winning form but surely needs softer ground; he’s not placed on ground without soft or heavy in the description since 2007. Coole Dodger has to be feared with Hanagan on top, but is 2lb wrong at the weights and may struggle to see out this trip. This leaves 2 and I’m taking both EW in: Waahej (RPF 14/1) - This one is interesting as he is both trained and owned by the same person and is entered up at Pontefract later in the week suggesting a big run is expected. Trainer has had a recent winner so no worries over the wellbeing of the stable and is likely to be vastly overpriced on the basis of his run at Doncaster behind Blue Spinnaker last month. I’m happily ignore that run as it was one of those unreliable apprentices events run on unsuitably soft ground with the selection having an awful draw. Much more in its favour today, eased 1lb in mark and has a good claimer taking a further 3lb off, making this horse look increasingly well handicapped. With the claim, mark looks like 60, this horse won off 61 for its only win to date. Needs a fast pace which it will get and generally travels well when he gets it. Has looked in need of a stiffer track so this course looks ideal, as does the trip; is 1 win, 4 placed from 7 starts over 9.5f or more, versus a dismal 1 place from 9 starts over shorter. Looks too big a price to ignore and I’ll happily take the EW odds available here. Toujours Souriante (RPF 22/1) – Top weight, over 3lbs clear of the 2^nd rated horse and has every chance here from its tiny stable. Has had 3 tries over sticks this winter with no success and this return from an absence to the flat could yield the required improvement. Is still very lightly raced with only 7 flat starts under his belt. After the customary 3 in maidens, has run with promise in 3 of his 4 handicap races. Finished 2^nd at 25/1 on its bow over 10f before being totally outclassed when raised to Class 2 company. Was then dropped to a more realistic Class 4 and won over 13f, when looking the first beat. Step back in trip doesn’t worry me because this track has a pretty stiff finish and this horse is guaranteed to get the trip. In addition, the winning jockey that day gets back on the horse for this run. Was subsequently raised 8lb for its final start of the season, finishing 9^th of 12 at Newbury in a Class 3 0-90 heat but performing with credit recording a Topspeed figure just 2lb shy of todays mark. That race was not run to suit with the hold up types having the advantage (bar the winner who went on to run with credit in a Listed event), this horse racing up with the pace that day. Dropped 2 grades and 4lb from that run, reunited with winning jockey and stiff track suiting over 10f, I expect a very big run from the top weight here.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 14/1 Waahej, 12/1 Toujours Souriante...both BOG with Bet365

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Waahej a NR whilst the other opened at 40/1 and went off at a massive 50's. That said it all about his chance and was never in the race. Disappointing bet although I was spot on that the hold up horses were favoured with only 1 of the first 4 raced prominently. Just the one race to be interested in tomorrow, the 6f sprint handicap at Ripon:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 2.35 Ripon Hopefully we can get the 4 places here with currently 16 runners for this Class 4, 0-85 handicap over the straight 6f. Similarly to the last bet at Beverley, I'll look at the pace angle here to narrow the field down. It's commonly known that Ripon has a massive pace bias towards the front runners yet, remarkably, I feel that only 3 of the 16 contenders fit that bill. Normally it's suggested that low numbers are preferred but a recent scan of the results show that mid / double figure draw isn't really a disadvantage. Almost every runner in this race has question marks attached to it so it's worth looking at the EW value. The one therefore that I'm be taking is: Esprit De Midas (RPF 12/1) - Is one of the 3 runners that races prominently and shouldn't be inconvenienced by his draw, especially with the lack of pace in this. Is trained by last years winning trainer, who has had his string in fine fettle so far this term. Is down in class and mark for todays run and has a great record of 4 wins from 5 starts when campaigned in Class 4 or below handicaps, against 0 from 4 in Class 3 or above. Won it's last turf start a year ago at Leicester, winning well. Has since had just 3 tries on the AW, finishing poorly in both starts at Southwell, but sandwiched in between that was a very creditable 7th at Kempton, where hold up horses were suited and this one actually performed best of the prominent types. Top weight of 9st4 no issue as, only twice in its 11 race career has the horse had less than 9st3 on its back. Is entered for a much better race than this at Ponty on Monday so clearly the trainer thinks he's ready to race. If I had one nagging doubt, it would be the fact it's 6lb above his last winning mark but I still feel this one can progress and does have conditions to suit today so, at around 10's, I'll be on EW.

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Unlucky with that today, Beaten 1/2L into 2nd at least BOG gives you 20/1 :clap:clap:clap Another little profit

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers Kev. Ran a nice race at a massive price, only beaten by the 50/1 rag! Stilll pleased with how it's going but could do with 1 or 2 of those placing actually getting their head in front:hope

[fintron]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Cheers Kev. Ran a nice race at a massive price, only beaten by the 50/1 rag! Stilll pleased with how it's going but could do with 1 or 2 of those placing actually getting their head in front:hope

same with my thread mate, but at least you are hitting the crossbar and getting close. The thread results seem to have picked back up since you went away and re-focussed so :hope for a profitable season :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

same with my thread mate' date=' but at least you are hitting the crossbar and getting close. The thread results seem to have picked back up since you went away and re-focussed so :hope for a profitable season :ok[/quote'] Cheers Fin. Hope things are going ok with Dani & the nipper;) Getting close mate, just need some to enter the winners enclosure. Hopeful though of a good season. You'll be fine, same as last term will do just fine;)

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Onto Friday and 6 all age handicaps to choose from across the country but I'm concentrating on just the 1. 4.45 Thirsk 11 runners for Div II of this Class 4, 0-80 handicap over the minimum distance. Over C&D, 2 things stick out; a high draw and a prominent racing style. Narrowing the field, I've taken out horses drawn 1-6; not purely draw based but I don't fancy of them either. Of the others, Highland Warrior looks likely to be strong fav but there are solid reasons to oppose. Firstly the horse prefers to be held up which isn't ideal and secondly and perhaps more importantly, I think it will struggle to defy this mark. In 15 races since the turn of the year 2009, it has raced 7 times off marks between 63 & 66, winning 3 times (all off 63) and 9 times off higher marks, failing to place each time; races off 69 today. In addition, I feel it needs softer ground to be seen at its best. Select Committee finished last season well but races off a career high mark but, of more concern, is its early season record. This horse remains of interest in the autumn but, for now, is passed over. Simple Rhythm won a few last term but again looks to be on a stiff mark whilst its trainer hasn't saddled a winner since October, over 30 runners. Also, it's form on the AW recently has been abysmal, again one to write off. That narrows the field down to 2 and the last one to go, albeit narrowly, is Incomparable. Goes well for Freddy Tylicki and won at Donny last term. Never won off a mark this high but is not without a chance. Might just prefer firmer ground though. This leaves us with: Time Medicean (RPF 11/1) - Looks to be stable second string here with the fav, Highland Warrior, coming from the same yard but I feel this one has a fine chance. Is one of the very few in the race I consider to be well handicapped racing off a mark of just 79. Is lightly raced with just 8 career runs to date but has plenty of scope. After winning its maiden, the horse has performed well in 5 handicap starts, albeit without a win. Form figures of 2-3-4-7-5 aren't shabby though, with the first of those runs (2nd) the only one of a mark as low as today's. Since then, finished 3rd in a 0-100 event (Class 2) at Epsom, an excellent effort off 82 followed by 2 poor but excusable runs. The first when soft ground didn't suit and the horse used up too much early on tacking across to lead from its wide draw, whilst the 2nd occasion was a falsely run race where the horse was uncharacteristically held up. Lto, in Aug, was 5th of 15 in a race at Ripon but that is much better than the figures suggest as it was actually 2nd of 9 in its unfavoured group. Incredibly, dropped 2lb from that effort so looks well handicapped. Stable in terrific form too as well as being well drawn gives this one a super chance. If I had to post negatives, I'm slightly worried about its absence from the track although stables runners are doing well fto, whilst the drop to 5f is an unknown. Raced exclusively at 6f or 7f so far but interesting that the trainer wants to start the horse off here, obviously suggesting it's showing signs of speed at home. Interesting tactic that I wouldn't be at all surprised if it paid off. Will take anything around 8 or 9/1 when prices are up.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Ran no sort of race and the drop to 5f didn't suit. Backed off the boards too! Moving to Saturday and there's 3 bets coming up.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 1.55 Thirsk The opener here is a Class 5, 0-70 handicap with 13 runners over the round mile. I honestly believe that 12 of the 131 runners like to either make the running or race up with the pace so this could be run at a good gallop and is unlikely to suit many here. The current fav is the top one Sir George and I just can't be having this one despite the form of its stable. Up in grade and mark, raised 7lb for winning a claimer, and that will be difficult to overcome here. Therefore the one I'm taking is the only confirmed hold up type in: Ninth House (11/1 Stan James) - A veteran that comes here not in the greatest of form but that's more than reflected in the price. Recent form isn't too inspiring but that has dropped this horse to a very winnable mark and today's conditions to suit. If you look through the form a little deeper, there's lots to suggest that today will be the day. Firstly the jockey booking; the only time the horse has done anything in the 8 runs was with todays pilot on top, when 5th. His record on the horse previous to that has been 3 wins and 4 2nd's from just 8 races. This horse also has a very good strike rate, 13 wins from 69 career runs. Stable's also in decent nick with a winner and 2 big priced 2nd's from it's last 9 runners. Mark is also very tempting, last time he raced off a mark so low, he won convincingly at this track. Also has a very close 2nd from one of its other races here, so a record of won 1, 2nd 1 from 3 starts is decent too. Will be happy coming off a strong pace and I just feel everything looks perfect for this 8yo to return to the winners enclosure.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 3.00 Thirsk 12 runners now for this Class 3, 0-90 handicap over 7f. This looks an open heat and again I'm taking on the fav who is up in mark and grade. I don't think many of those will either be suited by its season debut, handicap mark or the class of the race so the one I'm taking at a big price is: Horatio Carter (12/1 Bet365) - A really progressive horse in the first half of last year makes this price way too big. Has top weight here with top jockey on board, from a stable that is in tip top shape. If fit, this horse will be impossible to keep out of the shake up. Has a good strike rate, 4 from 20 career starts improving to 4 from 12 over this distance. Won here last term on his reappearance off a mark of 80, races off 90 today but that's well within its grasp. In its first 5 races last term, recorded incredibly consistent speed figures which, if reproducing, would make it a strong fav here. Form there was 1-2-3-9-1, and the 9th was actually in a big field handicap where it actually finished 2nd of 12 in the group. The last win there came off todays mark indicating that 90 is not unreasonable. The reason for the price is solely based on its last 4 starts but I'm prepared to ignore them all; is clearly better earlier in the reason, marks of 92 & 93 were too high, was outclassed racing in Class 2 including 2 extremely valuable events and 3 of them were at the wrong distances. Add to that the fact this trainer always has a strike rate in the first half of the season double to that in the 2nd half, and it's easy to forgive those runs. That's made this C&D winner a viable betting proposition and, in my opinion, only fitness can halt its bid here.