RussP Posted June 28, 2009 Author Share Posted June 28, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Updated stats after today: 2009 Staked = 500.00pts Returned = 648.47pts Profit = +148.47pts Yield = +29.7% Bets = 50 Winners = 5 (10.0% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 20 (50.0% s/r) 2008 Staked = 270.00pts Returned = 344.77pts Profit = +74.77pts Yield = +27.7% Bets = 27 Winners = 3 (11.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 8 (29.6% s/r) 2007 Turf Staked = 1040.00pts Returned = 1669.27pts Profit = +629.27pts Yield = +60.5% Bets = 105 Winners = 19 (18.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 41 (39.0% s/r) Really delighted with the returns after the worse run of my whole life, can't believe that the yield is nigh on 30% after 35 bets without posting a winner. Splitting the season into 3, shows just how bad that middle run was, see below: 1st 8 bets - 2 wins, 4 places, +158.13pts 2nd 35 bets - 0 wins, 11 places, -173.04pts 3rd 7 bets - 3 wins, 5 places, +163.38pts * places include wins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Decrypter Posted June 28, 2009 Share Posted June 28, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Thats great russ ;). I am a keen follower of you for about a year. Maybe one day you can tell me how you pick horses :D Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 28, 2009 Author Share Posted June 28, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Thats great russ ;). I am a keen follower of you for about a year. Maybe one day you can tell me how you pick horses :D Thanks Thanks mate:ok. Hope you have backed the last few, especially after the poor run. Hope to see you around more on the forum. Anything you want to ask, feel free:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 30, 2009 Author Share Posted June 30, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 5.30 Brighton Just 8 for this 5f sprint here on very firm ground and I'm on: Orpens Art (8/1 Bet365 BOG) - Big chance today for this horse with top jock up top. Stable amongst the winners too & this horse has recently won over C&D. Not sure any of its rivals are that well handicapped so the 3lb drop in the weights is surely of significance here. Ground holds no fears as its win at Brighton last month was on a similar surface. Has been running off marks in both the 60's & 70's in the last 12 months so been given a real chance. Entered up again later in the week but I feel the horse will go well here with everything looking to be in its favour. Form figures can be deceptive and, for me, holes can be picked in each of the 4 market leaders so this is a value EW bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) The man is on fire, :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Nice going again Russ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Bang in form again Russ :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) top class tipping mate :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky-15 Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Great minds an all that, i've napped it aswell:clap Keep it going ur on a great run!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 30, 2009 Author Share Posted June 30, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 5.30 Brighton Just 8 for this 5f sprint here on very firm ground and I'm on: Orpens Art (8/1 Bet365 BOG) - Big chance today for this horse with top jock up top. Stable amongst the winners too & this horse has recently won over C&D. Not sure any of its rivals are that well handicapped so the 3lb drop in the weights is surely of significance here. Ground holds no fears as its win at Brighton last month was on a similar surface. Has been running off marks in both the 60's & 70's in the last 12 months so been given a real chance. Entered up again later in the week but I feel the horse will go well here with everything looking to be in its favour. Form figures can be deceptive and, for me, holes can be picked in each of the 4 market leaders so this is a value EW bet. Won at 7's:ok Cheers guys, it's been a good week for sure, 4 wins & 2 more placed from 8 bets at all odds of 8/1 upwards. Hope we can keep it going. Thanks for the support though:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Well done Russ, terrific run of form mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Excellent accuracy Russ. Really good summaries and then the results to match. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Absolutely terrific tipping mate. Keep up the good work. :) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 1, 2009 Author Share Posted July 1, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 8.10 Chepstow 4 NR's but still a decent sized field for this 1m4f handicap. In search of a value price, I'm on: Lady Jinks (11/1 SportingBet) - As short as 7's elsewhere, this looks way overpriced. On recent form, this horse should go well and has the assistance of stronger handling tonight, something this quirky horse should benefit from. Off a nice mark of just 51, that in spite of a staying on 2nd 2 starts ago off 1lb higher. The longer straight at Chepstow will suit too as it takes the horse a while to hit top gear. Trip & track look right, goes well on the ground and, with a lack of major players here, I expect a big run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) :clap A free bet with it in the money for 2nd place, and another small profit secured by taking the nice early 11/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 1, 2009 Author Share Posted July 1, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 8.10 Chepstow 4 NR's but still a decent sized field for this 1m4f handicap. In search of a value price, I'm on: Lady Jinks (11/1 SportingBet) - As short as 7's elsewhere, this looks way overpriced. On recent form, this horse should go well and has the assistance of stronger handling tonight, something this quirky horse should benefit from. Off a nice mark of just 51, that in spite of a staying on 2nd 2 starts ago off 1lb higher. The longer straight at Chepstow will suit too as it takes the horse a while to hit top gear. Trip & track look right, goes well on the ground and, with a lack of major players here, I expect a big run. Cheers Kev, hope you got on again mate:ok 2nd at SP of 15/2:ok. That's 3 2nd's for Ahern tonight:lol. Ran a nice race & pleased that Ahern quickly realised he would need to be up with the pace. Winner ran well and interesting that it was its 1st run for the Jim Best yard, sure BtP can give us a bit more info about that;) Now over 200pts in profit, with a yield close to 40%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Russ, you genius :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers Kev, hope you got on again mate:ok 2nd at SP of 15/2:ok. That's 3 2nd's for Ahern tonight:lol. Ran a nice race & pleased that Ahern quickly realised he would need to be up with the pace. Winner ran well and interesting that it was its 1st run for the Jim Best yard, sure BtP can give us a bit more info about that;) Now over 200pts in profit, with a yield close to 40%. As per usual Thank you,:ok the run took a long time to come, but you just knew when you hit one loads more will follow, Just like the Buses All the guys here in ATR, do an outstanding job of working hard to justify for people to put their own hard earned cash on, I have been lucky cathing some great wins from here. Remember Ralphie's PL lucky 15, that was great. Then we had 2 mad days were everyone one hit winners You all deserve :notworthy:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 1, 2009 Author Share Posted July 1, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Small fields tomorrow:@....thus no bets. The only one that takes the eye is John Keats in the 3.10 Haydock, 8/1 Bet365 BOG. Think it will go well but I just hate this 'finish best of all but failed to get up' lark. Could well take it but happy to keep my powder dry for another day. May have 1 or 2 for Friday but then offline until Monday:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishbugger Posted July 3, 2009 Share Posted July 3, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Hi, I only registered cus I like your thread Russ! John Keat's 2nd, went big myself and not each way at the minimal odds. I'm more unhappy with myself as after reading several pages of your thread I had ESPY the other day, which I was waiting on for a canadian! I read it about 6 pages back on this thread. Unfortunately didn't read the thread before picking the bets cus ESPY was 3rd and you tipped the winner Orphens Art! Lol. Ah well. Loving your informative posts, less speculation and more thought behind your predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 5, 2009 Author Share Posted July 5, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 4.45 Musselburgh Poor Class 6 handicap over 7f with 12 runners. Looks a weakish race and I'm happy to oppose most of this field with only Nufoudh of the market leaders looking to hold a major chance. The EW bet for me is: Mr Lu (currently 9/1 Betfair) - 2nd in the weights but looks to have got in here off a lovely mark. Dropped 3lb from lto and down in class, whilst also racing back at best distance today after 2 tries at 6f. One of 2 CD winners and has a nice mid to high draw on this turning 7f. Ran 3 times here last summer over distances around this trip, winning off 54 and 2nd twice off 60 & 64. Back to just 56 today. First 3 runs this term were poor before going really well over 6f at Hamilton 2 starts back off 60. Couldn't go the pace lto over trip too short and I feel the extra furlong plus the significant jockey booking could hold the key. With a poor field assembled, I feel 9's is too big a price to ignore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 6, 2009 Author Share Posted July 6, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 4.45 Musselburgh Poor Class 6 handicap over 7f with 12 runners. Looks a weakish race and I'm happy to oppose most of this field with only Nufoudh of the market leaders looking to hold a major chance. The EW bet for me is: Mr Lu (currently 9/1 Betfair) - 2nd in the weights but looks to have got in here off a lovely mark. Dropped 3lb from lto and down in class, whilst also racing back at best distance today after 2 tries at 6f. One of 2 CD winners and has a nice mid to high draw on this turning 7f. Ran 3 times here last summer over distances around this trip, winning off 54 and 2nd twice off 60 & 64. Back to just 56 today. First 3 runs this term were poor before going really well over 6f at Hamilton 2 starts back off 60. Couldn't go the pace lto over trip too short and I feel the extra furlong plus the significant jockey booking could hold the key. With a poor field assembled, I feel 9's is too big a price to ignore. Poor, poor run. Ran as though something was amiss to me, faded very tamely indeed. It's clear that I overlooked the form of the yard so apologies to anyone who was on. I did highlight the winner though as the only danger:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) I too thought this had a chance Russ, he played up beforehand and sweated between the legs. He was a big drifter on Betfair. He wasn't given a hard time once beaten and allowed to coast home. Today definitely wasn't the day, which is a nightmare for those already on like you and I. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 11, 2009 Author Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 2.55 Chester 10 left for this 1m2f handicap and 3 lto winners in the field. However, they all look opposable and I'll the chances of the top 2 left but the one I'm on is: Mujaadel (10/1 Ladbrokes) - Looks a big price to me here. Let's get the negatives out of the way, modest strike rate & trip an unknown, although likely to stay on this sharp track. On the positive side, interesting jockey booking with a top 3lb claimer taking the ride opposed to stable jockey. That's a pointer, especially off top weight whilst the ease in grade and another 2lb down in mark is a plus. Inside berth so good early position is likely, and that is important. Ground looks fine and this seems to be value in a race where I think the biggest danger may actually be Royal Amnesty. Nice EW chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 11, 2009 Author Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Poor run today, sorry all:$ In addition to my bets, I'm going to add a laying section but still applying the same principles....all age handicaps only. I find that I can generally read handicaps pretty well so I'm going to look at laying horses too. There will be no price restrictions, if it can't win, it will be laid:ok. General rule of thumb for the thread will be 10pt lay on prices up to 5.00, 5pt lay on prices up to 10.00, 3pt up to 20.00, 1pt on prices over. Suggest to everyone that you tread carefully at present and watch for a few weeks to see how it tracks but getting involved:ok Separate P&L will apply for backs & lays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Poor run today, sorry all:$ In addition to my bets, I'm going to add a laying section but still applying the same principles....all age handicaps only. I find that I can generally read handicaps pretty well so I'm going to look at laying horses too. There will be no price restrictions, if it can't win, it will be laid:ok. General rule of thumb for the thread will be 10pt lay on prices up to 5.00, 5pt lay on prices up to 10.00, 3pt up to 20.00, 1pt on prices over. Suggest to everyone that you tread carefully at present and watch for a few weeks to see how it tracks but getting involved:ok Separate P&L will apply for backs & lays. Good Luck mate with the lays, trying it myself at the moment & enjoying it really, its key to get the right staking system to avoid losing what you win! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 11, 2009 Author Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 8.30 Salisbury Just 7 runners but I'm looking to oppose 2 of these: Seventh Cavalry - Ran well in 2nd lto but is still a maiden, is stepped back up in trip which I'm not convinced will suit and is raised 4lb for that effort. The ground may not be ideal either so it's hard to envisage a win here. Surely, it's best chance to get off the mark was lto with conditions to suit then so I'm prepared to oppose here. Bagber - 3yo tackling older horses but another yet to visit the winners enclosure. Unable to win in 7 maidens before a good effort lto when 2nd at Sandown. Good ride given that day and race run to suit where clearly those prominent held an advantage. Will be in the mix but handicap mark has gone up 1lb despite never looking likely to win lto. Personally I think Mustajed and Curacao will fight out the finish Lay Seventh Cavalry, 5pts @ 7.00 Lay Bagber, 5pts @ 5.60 * note, all bets will be laid on Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 11, 2009 Author Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Worried now with the ground:cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Worried now with the ground:cry Noooo problem man! Not even placed! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Even called the 1-2 as well :clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 11, 2009 Author Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 8.30 Salisbury Just 7 runners but I'm looking to oppose 2 of these: Seventh Cavalry - Ran well in 2nd lto but is still a maiden, is stepped back up in trip which I'm not convinced will suit and is raised 4lb for that effort. The ground may not be ideal either so it's hard to envisage a win here. Surely, it's best chance to get off the mark was lto with conditions to suit then so I'm prepared to oppose here. Bagber - 3yo tackling older horses but another yet to visit the winners enclosure. Unable to win in 7 maidens before a good effort lto when 2nd at Sandown. Good ride given that day and race run to suit where clearly those prominent held an advantage. Will be in the mix but handicap mark has gone up 1lb despite never looking likely to win lto. Personally I think Mustajed and Curacao will fight out the finish Lay Seventh Cavalry, 5pts @ 7.00 Lay Bagber, 5pts @ 5.60 * note, all bets will be laid on Betfair. Cheers Ebor & Kev:ok Got the prices all wrong as both the lays went off much shorter but happy with the result. Seventh Cavalry 3rd, Bagber 4th....both out of the places:ok As predicted too, Curacao & Mustajed fought out the finish;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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